The market does not predict harpy being in trouble from the FBI? How predictable was the market regarding TRUMP 4, 5 months ago?
I'm glad you mentioned that. I placed a bet with my dad last fall that Trump would snag the Pubbie nom; it was a gentleman's bet. I gave him even odds even though I could have negotiated a 4-1 payout for myself based on the implied odds for him winning the nom back then.
But a gentleman's bet is a gentleman's bet. And like a gentleman, my dad paid off the bet after Super Tuesday.
To be frank, I've been dismissing all that "contested convention" fol-de-rol as nothing more than sensationalistic clickbait. Trump's the same negotiator he's always been, and he would have get it on the second ballot with one simple negotiation were he not to get it on the first ballot.
I was expecting him to come a wee bit short on the first but snap it up on the second by agreeing to put Ted Cruz on the ticket as his VP choice. That would have been a Trump-level negotiation. The advantage for The Donald would be threefold:
1. On the second ballot, he'd have a
near-unanimous majority. Just ask yourself what The Donald would do with that in the general.
2. Trump the businessman has hired people that had fought him earlier, provided that they fought him skilfully. Regardless of what you think of Ted Cruz's character, his organization has been very skillful at working the delegate system. If Donald picks Ted as his running mate, Teddy will be put in charge of GOTV.
3. Given that we now know that Sen. Cruz has a dark side, Trump could use him as the Trump Administration's hatchet man.
And I'm quite sure that Trump is supremely confident in his ability to smooth over his supporters' ruffled feathers if he were to choose Cruz.
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To get back to the general: the same "gut" that told me The Donald would get the Pubbie nom is telling me that the election is Hillary's to lose. Why? In a nutshell, Trump's negatives are the kind that are going to be hard to get rid of. Hillary's will be less difficult because she's "the devil you know". Much of the dirt on her is past its sell-by date, and some of it is
way past its sell-by date. If you were Joe Moderate, how would you like to hear a Trump caller regaling you about the Monica Lewinsky scandal of 1998?
Plus, there's the Obama factor. Hard for you to believe, but a lot of folks still like him and some still look up to him. Guess how he's going to weigh in?