XII FREE Tipster Competition -sponsored by DirectBet- (Main Thread)

[amin28]

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1ChQLbbYjbqc2Ct4GcNWYvRjcjdXpieeHU

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=13XvzSoEiYNwsrmwb3WTuTbLnik7WAhLzm

[Buziss]

What a day. SulphurXX won a few bets while Wendigo lost a few bets, and now SulphurXX has taken the top spot with a comfortable margin.

[salek11]

https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=17AgiaS89gx6FqtDsV9jXfAWXXhNyQdNc3
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1B6AypScmMvB2hYdwmyTJ7DDCJiwLyqD5V

[ndnh]

Lesson learnt. 

Never bet when you are already ahead. Dang!

[nickaizoku]

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=19PF1aDLPeBvSomKNGMrxQEgiwb78CubZD
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1ApNwirspf9pUpQJDEk3AzZJzvzityGyWr
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1847pe3g11LmhH3X4B4Wo1hR78vSvewoSM
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1GNz2P4oSVfhQpoGCLAMv7QM7qvcr46YQD

[Wendigo]

Well today will be an interesting day  Looks like the luck is slipping away so it's time to churn out the long-shot parlays 

[patt0]

What a day. SulphurXX won a few bets while Wendigo lost a few bets, and now SulphurXX has taken the top spot with a comfortable margin.

I kept saying anything could happen in this competition and look at all these changes.
Now first place looks almost decided, but even now, if wendigo gets his parlays right he can reclaim first place again!
The race for second and third will be interesting. Great competition!

Lesson learnt.  

Never bet when you are already ahead. Dang!

I don't agree, I think you and wendigo did very well, that is the right spirit for a good competition, and like I said anything can still happen.
Good luck to all!

Now I leave here some of my last bets, that I did not have time to post yesterday.

09/19/2015 20:00, Sociedad v Espanyol
Match Odds, Espanyol
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1HUdudBbCauHADNL6wf1QLvhReZeiEhbez

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 14:00, Corinthians v Santos, Double Chance, Home or Draw
09/20/2015 14:00, Goias v Joinville, Double Chance, Home or Draw
09/20/2015 12:30, Achilles 29 v Den Bosch, Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals
09/20/2015 14:00, Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar, Over/Under 3.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals
09/20/2015 10:30, Mordovia Saransk v CSKA Moscow, Over/Under 3.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals
09/20/2015 16:30, Lokomotiv v Kryliya Sovetov, Asian Handicap, Kryliya Sovetov +1
09/19/2015 23:00, New York City v San Jose Earthquakes, Over/Under 1.5 Goals, Over 1.5 Goals
09/19/2015 23:00, Vancouver Whitecaps v Seattle, Double Chance, Home or Draw
09/20/2015 00:30, Chicago Fire v Orlando City, Over/Under 1.5 Goals, Over 1.5 Goals
09/20/2015 00:00, Montreal Impact v New England, Over/Under 1.5 Goals, Over 1.5 Goals
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1FC6zKJnc5A5msstjtHeR34Vio1aYYL6a5

[ndnh]

I would like to propose a better system. The 5% limit is really troublesome. My bets are usually more than 5%, but it gets rounded down. So when I make a 0.01 bet on high odds and lose and a 0.1 bet on low odds and win, my ROI goes down, while it shouldn't, imo.

A better way is to take out the bankroll part and the 5% limit. (10x can stay, no problem with that).
Bet with whatever amount you want.

So, ROI = total of payouts/total of bets.


Edit: In that example, it would be (say odds for the first was 3x and the second was 1.2x)
1st case:
Bet = 0.005 Payout = 0 (-5%)
Bet = 0.005 Payout = 0.006 (+1%)
ROI = -4%

This one:
Bet = 0.01 Payout = 0
Bet = 0.1 Payout = 0.12
ROI = 0.12/0.11 = 9.09%

The negative% kind of thing is the reason why my ROI went down from some 80% to 12%.



Edit2: Since ROI is a %, both the existing and proposed ones are independent of the bet size.

[Joca97]

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=DHCFm2jrHAUuNpNVZJfz8RF5rdMHt2uHVc
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=DJzEzkcKPkd5jGv7wJBVXXz2aSxXXBJe5V
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=DKcbL3of8Q3KpSyZyYJsX4bEpeYuKcFGeq
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=DKnn51oZ7z9csX4jovdkUcGU3wRM2g72EE

[patt0]

I would like to propose a better system. The 5% limit is really troublesome. My bets are usually more than 5%, but it gets rounded down. So when I make a 0.01 bet on high odds and lose and a 0.1 bet on low odds and win, my ROI goes down, while it shouldn't, imo.

A better way is to take out the bankroll part and the 5% limit. (10x can stay, no problem with that).
Bet with whatever amount you want.

So, ROI = total of payouts/total of bets.


Edit: In that example, it would be (say odds for the first was 3x and the second was 1.2x)
1st case:
Bet = 0.005 Payout = 0
Bet = 0.005 Payout = -0.005
-50% ROI

This one:
Bet = 0.01 Payout = 0
Bet = 0.1 Payout = 0.12
ROI = 0.12/0.11 = 9.09%

The negative 50% kind of thing is the reason why my ROI went down from some 80% to 12%.



Edit2: Since ROI is a %, both the existing and proposed ones are independent of the bet size.

I don't think it works like that. Your bet stake is rounded down to the 5% first and then profit and losses are applied to that new bet stake.
So you won't go down 50% at once ever.

[ndnh]

I don't think it works like that. Your bet stake is rounded down to the 5% first and then profit and losses are applied to that new bet stake.
So you won't go down 50% at once ever.

Fixed. Thanks

[rz20]

Are you going to make a new competition for october? I'm interested in participating.

[Zz]

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1M6H1WTzRiDeafVa2tncRVniQFR3RzCU3A

[Zz]

Parlay https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1NrYibKM3tkbAtSq1wegbEiDwaiwfWUA3A

[Zz]

Last Parlay https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1PzU8BtyngkskuWQ6uJn2LYYbeRFFbbqVw

[patt0]

I don't think it works like that. Your bet stake is rounded down to the 5% first and then profit and losses are applied to that new bet stake.
So you won't go down 50% at once ever.

Fixed. Thanks

I only see a problem with your system. We can all just allin if things are going wrong to try to recover from previous losses, meaning that the luck factor would increase, and as the OP always mentioned that was something that they were trying to reduce in this competition. And 5% max bet stake of current bankroll is a normal value for professional punters since it provides decent bankroll management (some only use that when they are very confident, and the normal value is 1% to 3%), so I don't see any problem with the current system.
In my case, when I bet a high odds I don't use the max 5%, since the probability of losing is big, so I also adjust my stake according to the bet odds, that way I don't experience such big changes with my bets (but that's my strategy, not saying it's the best one).

Anyway here are some more bets for the competition:

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 14:00, Corinthians v Santos, Double Chance, Home or Draw
09/20/2015 14:00, Goias v Joinville, Draw No Bet, Goias
09/20/2015 14:45, Vitesse v De Graafschap, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 12:30, Excelsior v Ajax, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 14:45, Groningen v AZ Alkmaar, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 12:30, Achilles 29 v Den Bosch, Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals
09/20/2015 14:00, Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar, Over/Under 3.5 Goals, Under 3.5 Goals
09/20/2015 13:00, Roma v Sassuolo, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 18:15, Porto v Benfica, Draw No Bet, Porto
09/20/2015 13:30, Stuttgart v Schalke, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 14:30, Rapid Vienna v Admira Wacker, Asian Handicap, Admira Wacker +2
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1FDKyRjXaZpi34ifYahqGhBGShnuWKA8Xt

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 18:15, Porto v Benfica, Draw No Bet, Porto
09/20/2015 13:30, Stuttgart v Schalke, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 10:30, Roda JC v Feyenoord, Draw No Bet, Feyenoord
09/20/2015 14:30, Rapid Vienna v Admira Wacker, Asian Handicap, Admira Wacker +1.25
09/20/2015 15:00, Monaco v Lorient, Draw No Bet, Monaco
09/20/2015 15:00, St Etienne v Nantes, Asian Handicap, Nantes +1.25
09/20/2015 13:00, Roma v Sassuolo, Asian Handicap, Sassuolo +2.25
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=16xMdbKheVaq2esMohRQF4wVjG7UrcVmij

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 18:15, Porto v Benfica, Draw No Bet, Porto
09/20/2015 14:30, Rapid Vienna v Admira Wacker, Asian Handicap, Admira Wacker +1.25
09/20/2015 15:00, St Etienne v Nantes, Asian Handicap, Nantes +1.25
09/20/2015 13:00, Roma v Sassuolo, Asian Handicap, Sassuolo +2.25
09/20/2015 13:30, Stuttgart v Schalke, Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Over 2.5 Goals
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1Ctv6BH8sjzbapk4PTyZKWeyYVG2j3bFvJ

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 14:45, Vitesse v De Graafschap, Match Odds, Vitesse
09/20/2015 12:30, Excelsior v Ajax, Match Odds, Ajax
09/20/2015 14:00, Corinthians v Santos, Match Odds, Corinthians
09/20/2015 14:00, Goias v Joinville, Match Odds, Goias
09/20/2015 21:00, Portland Timbers v New York Red Bulls, First Half Goals 0.5, Over 0.5 Goals
09/20/2015 18:15, Porto v Benfica, Draw No Bet, Porto
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=18bkY2SjDFEMk6JJfXwSunuixqJUPH2sm

Toto ~ Parlay
09/20/2015 12:00, Slovan Bratislava v Trencin, Draw No Bet, Trencin
09/20/2015 10:30, Mordovia Saransk v CSKA Moscow, Over/Under 6.5 Goals, Over 6.5 Goals
09/20/2015 17:00, Spain v Lithuania, Moneyline, Spain
09/20/2015 13:30, Stuttgart v Schalke, First Half Goals 1.5, Over 1.5 Goals
https://www.directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=15PYszAiBNhcrj2nhNwqkCrUe8xWojhRko

[FrueGreads]

I would like to propose a better system. The 5% limit is really troublesome. My bets are usually more than 5%, but it gets rounded down. So when I make a 0.01 bet on high odds and lose and a 0.1 bet on low odds and win, my ROI goes down, while it shouldn't, imo.

A better way is to take out the bankroll part and the 5% limit. (10x can stay, no problem with that).
Bet with whatever amount you want.

Like patt0 mentioned out, if we don't limit a max bet stake, everyone can just bet his all bank in the final moments of the competition, and with a lucky bet they will claim first prize, and that seems unfair to someone that was able to make small bets throughout the entire competition and showed overall profits.

There is another problem with that system, that is the risk for someone to go all in and make big bets, when having a small initial bankroll. If someone starts the competition with 1 BTC, and another one with 10.000 DOGE, it will be a lot easier for the one with 10k Doge to go allin if things are going wrong, and that does not seem fair as well.

Also, in your example you chosed to make a big bet at low odds and a small bet at high odds. That is exactly the right thing to do, since the chances on winning at high odds are lower. The only problem is that you chosed to bet 5% in both of them, so that good decision was not reflected on your bets at all.
You would not get negative ROI% if your 5% was the 0.1 and not the 0.01, that way your bet would not get limited.

So to solve your problem in the next competition, see what is your normal betting stake, and list your initial bank so you can bet that stake as 5% of your bank, and everything will be ok.
Please remember that you don't need to fund your address with the bank you declare, so you are free to state any bank you want, allowing you to use you normal betting stake as if it was 5% of your bank, even if that represents a bigger percentage of your real betting bank.

[FrueGreads]

Are you going to make a new competition for october? I'm interested in participating.

Yes we are, we will annouce all the details as soon as this one ends!

[Jcga]

Are you going to make a new competition for october? I'm interested in participating.

Yes we are, we will annouce all the details as soon as this one ends!

Cool and Thx, I was really looking for da answear

Amin28 with his 228 bets deserves to be on the top and I'm glad for him.

Thank to DirectBet for this fun Champ.

[Jcga]

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1GfAX2SEndAaiW9aMjJSCe6s5CjyL6hF6k
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1FZtPreg1vbdfkrJZAjaFXSMMhnmLHKq8i
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=17Rc3QmkjXSJsomMFJmCUP5JYpzknCgsSk
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=17ndctnPVgUiwUKh7HcosrrkeSbZvc9582
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=17DpUAhdUCNAFiKAJosCt6kuRLKikxtToM

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1Q77PTfb8LBB3NciD5StBpkBMs1AMA4nw5
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1Q6T3zZVmgfxNmWZ9n3UCKojCdMfSwQkZ2
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1pYAae5Act2WWJbjNGQxBTzMXAFa6pwuY
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1Ppp1BU4BCRQkJRXyBkQSvCUTGcd5WdRPo
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=15T6NnSaa93qbA98BdtjEUbDbQBXgrj634
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=1BNQvGWtwVp1RK2c7BMELuinmGJw8WUW73
https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=13PrdQsdKqp1hCXbjk7RWpXCC3t5kQ8QWP

https://directbet.eu/BetStatus.cshtml?BetID=15z1mSoJbVvSq34Ee5afH1qBQMcmcPyAKd