Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread

[KTChampions]

You took 1.7 odds on inconsistent teams, it's not like those are goofy matches, that's how they play. Frankfurt is a mess of inconsistency, just look at their past matches, past results, past goals scored, and total goals, and you will see that they are just impossible to predict.
Have you been able to get what they were doing in the last 6 matches with 1x2 results you would have had an 800x winning parlay.
Dortmund is 160x
Bayer, even with the surprise win over Manchester, is 300x
Leipzig is 100x
Bayern is 70x.
Why bother?

I don't quite understand which X's you're talking about. 70x with Bayern in their last six games? That's probably considering we should have predicted a draw against Union? But even so, this figure seems inflated. It's unlikely that Bayern's average odds were higher than 1.5, and a draw in that game was priced at, say, 5.0. Then it comes out to 1.5⁵ x 5 = 38. In principle, the figure is close, and perhaps, taking into account “difficult” opponents like Bayer and Dortmund, the average coefficient was higher than 1.5.

[stompix]

You took 1.7 odds on inconsistent teams, it's not like those are goofy matches, that's how they play. Frankfurt is a mess of inconsistency, just look at their past matches, past results, past goals scored, and total goals, and you will see that they are just impossible to predict.
Have you been able to get what they were doing in the last 6 matches with 1x2 results you would have had an 800x winning parlay.
Dortmund is 160x
Bayer, even with the surprise win over Manchester, is 300x
Leipzig is 100x
Bayern is 70x.
Why bother?

I don't quite understand which X's you're talking about. 70x with Bayern in their last six games? That's probably considering we should have predicted a draw against Union? But even so, this figure seems inflated. It's unlikely that Bayern's average odds were higher than 1.5, and a draw in that game was priced at, say, 5.0. Then it comes out to 1.5⁵ x 5 = 38. In principle, the figure is close, and perhaps, taking into account “difficult” opponents like Bayer and Dortmund, the average coefficient was higher than 1.5.

1.12 vs St Pauli
2.0 vs Arsenal
1.18 vs Freiburg
2.78 vs PSG
1.28 vs Bayer
7.0 vs Union
https://www.oddsportal.com/football/team/bayern-munich/nVp0wiqd/#results

Odds might be there and here with ~10% as oddportal shows the best odds based on country

[KTChampions]

I don't quite understand which X's you're talking about. 70x with Bayern in their last six games? That's probably considering we should have predicted a draw against Union? But even so, this figure seems inflated. It's unlikely that Bayern's average odds were higher than 1.5, and a draw in that game was priced at, say, 5.0. Then it comes out to 1.5⁵ x 5 = 38. In principle, the figure is close, and perhaps, taking into account “difficult” opponents like Bayer and Dortmund, the average coefficient was higher than 1.5.

1.12 vs St Pauli
2.0 vs Arsenal
1.18 vs Freiburg
2.78 vs PSG
1.28 vs Bayer
7.0 vs Union
https://www.oddsportal.com/football/team/bayern-munich/nVp0wiqd/#results

Odds might be there and here with ~10% as oddportal shows the best odds based on country

Got it. I didn't think you'd take into account games against Arsenal and PSG, which are obviously different from Bundesliga games.
If we take the Bundesliga only, the last 6 games will give: 1.11*1.17*6.89*1.27*1.21*1.24 = 17
Which seems incredibly modest considering that predicting a draw with Union was difficult, and it was this result that made the main contribution to the final odds.

[$weetne$$]

In yesterday's match Leverkusen played very well even dominating the match, but they couldn't capitalize on their scoring opportunities. Ultimately Dortmund took home three crucial points. Dortmund played very solidly in that match especially their defense which was a key factor in their ability to thwart Leverkusen's pressure.

Dortmund played disciplined from the start successfully quelling Leverkusen's pressure. Therefore Dortmund deserved their victory, as they not only played solidly but also maintained their composure under constant pressure. The two will face each other again in the round of 16 of the DFB-Pokal next week. It will be interesting to see whether the two coaches will employ the same strategy or employ different strategies. I personally want to bet on the Over goal in this match, as DFB-Pokal matches typically produce a high number of goals.

I see that Dortmund actually has a better efficiency at conversion than Leverkusen does, this is because neither of both teams did played poorly in the yesterday's game but the ability to utilise opportunities when they come was the absolute edge one had over the other and it did worked perfectly for the other as against the other, so in this their meeting again, I am hoping Leverkusen should have learnt already.

[1kodumtek7]

Dortmund were clearly better than Leverkusen in that match. Having close number of shots isn't enough to prove 2 teams playing similarly. Efficiency is a more important factor and Dortmund were definitely better at that!

The thing I'm not contented with on their side is their number of goals this season. They are great about it in the Champions League with 3.4 goals average per game. But it is only 1.75 in the Bundesliga... 

[amihada]

When news of their separation from Xabi Alonso broke, I was already starting to lose hope for Leverkusen. And when the day of their separation announcement arrived, I was clearly expecting it, and that made me even less hopeful.

I don't mean to doubt the new coach or anything. But Leverkusen's success was built by Xabi, and that was in a very short time. Furthermore, the key players were leaving Leverkusen one by one, causing them to lose their previously visible strength. And even with the appointment of a new coach after Xabi, it made me even more convinced that they couldn't maintain their previous form.

It is difficult for Leverkusen to develop or at least maintain the performance like when Xabi Alonso was still managed, his departure greatly affected Leverkusen performance on the field, especially after several key players who succeeded in winning the Bundesliga title also moved to other teams. The results are as you can see at the moment, Leverkusen may not be in too bad a slump, but it is very difficult to provide competition to Bayern Munich with the quality of the squad they currently have.

Leverkusen couldn't resist Real Madrid temptation, especially since Xabi Alonso also had a strong desire to manage the club he once played for. Now with a new coach, their target may be limited to a top four finish, while their chances in the Champions League are really slim.

[sana54210]

Frankfurt is one of the teams in Bundesliga I love to have them always for over in betting because their attack is one of the best, and mostly they played open games just because of this they have good number of over 2.5 but in last 8 games they have only 3 games going over 2.5 this is strange.

They are currently at 7th position in league table their next game is against RB Leipzig this is going to be exciting game Frankfurt looking for having their chances into top spots while Leipzig is also facing pressure due to good results from Borussia Dortmund this season is having good fight for Champions League spots. For this game I am expecting most chances both teams will play aggressive soccer and match result going over is looking good for betting Leipzig is looking better at home turf.

Frankfurt is so good on offense that they end up shining new players to stage and then they sell those players for a lot of money and that is why they make that much money. I think it's clear that we are going to see them be this way for a while, they are doing what Dortmund is doing basically, trying to make money so that they can reach a financial situation that they can compete with Bayern Munich eventually.

Not going to have that consistently but they can keep on growing financially by repeating this and then eventually one day be that big. Or if nothing else, they can sustain being top four team all the time ,if they can do that then it would help them financially as well and a good way to win one day if Bayern fails.

[Velvet78]

Have you noticed the incredible change by Hoffenheim this season? For now they are in even top 4 race. I mean this is a really big improvement compared to what they did last season...  

When Christian Ilzer first arrived, he had a tough work to do. To keep the team away from relegation. He did it but it wasn't easy. And right after that season he has made a huge progress! They didn't even spend much money last summer.

[mv1986]

~

The match with Union and the nearly 7x odds before the match for the draw are the culprit there.
Had Bayern won that match, their odds would be around 11x for the last 6 games, even with Arsenal and PSG in the picture.

But still, betting on Frankfurt is playing roulette, and when you beat Galata 5-1, Galata beats Liverpool 1-0, and Liverpool beats Frankfurt 5-1, there you have 3 in 1 cocktail of teams that should be avoided unless you really enjoy surprises down to masochistic levels. Oh and another 5-1 in the mix with Atletico, how could I forget!

Of course, but at the end of the day this approach demonstrates precisely why there is no trick to sports betting that makes you successful long-term. It doesn't matter whether you pick one team for six consecutive games or six teams on one match day, variance is big and, frankly, it is big for essentially any team the longer the time horizon (or streak of games) is.

Yesterday Real Madrid didn't win. PSG lost against Monaco despite that red card for Monaco. Stuttgart failed against Hamburg. Tottenham lost at home against Fulham (even a 1/X would have lost), Man City scored the winning goal in extra time against Leeds (just saying).

The only big league that had relatively predictable results was Serie A. There is always this bias when people make 10 picks and one goes wrong they think they got unlucky. The truth is getting 9 of them correct means they couldn't have been any luckier than that.

[Mame89]

Dortmund were clearly better than Leverkusen in that match. Having close number of shots isn't enough to prove 2 teams playing similarly. Efficiency is a more important factor and Dortmund were definitely better at that!

The thing I'm not contented with on their side is their number of goals this season. They are great about it in the Champions League with 3.4 goals average per game. But it is only 1.75 in the Bundesliga... 

I also agree with you that the difference in this match was the team's efficiency and effectiveness in capitalizing on scoring opportunities. In this regard Dortmund was superior to Leverkusen. Statistically Leverkusen dominated the game, but they weren't effective enough in capitalizing on their chances. Furthermore, Dortmund's defense was truly disciplined and solid.

Dortmund's victory in this match moved them up to third place, just one point behind second-placed Leipzig. In terms of goal production there's certainly a difference between the UCL and the Bundesliga, but in my opinion goal production isn't that important because the most important thing is winning.

[imamusma]

Have you noticed the incredible change by Hoffenheim this season? For now they are in even top 4 race. I mean this is a really big improvement compared to what they did last season...  

When Christian Ilzer first arrived, he had a tough work to do. To keep the team away from relegation. He did it but it wasn't easy. And right after that season he has made a huge progress! They didn't even spend much money last summer.

That's true, Hoffenheim have improved drastically beyond anyone expectations, considering that last season they finished just two spots above the relegation zone. Statistically, Hoffenheim performance is almost the same as Leverkusen, with only a slight difference in goal productivity putting Hoffenheim in fifth place in the standings. I think they have the potential to finish in the top four, and that is not impossible. More realistically, Hoffenheim may succeed in securing a Europa League ticket next season, they just need to consistently maintain their level of performance.

[Renampun]

Dortmund were clearly better than Leverkusen in that match. Having close number of shots isn't enough to prove 2 teams playing similarly. Efficiency is a more important factor and Dortmund were definitely better at that!
snip

Dortmund's game was quite good because they were able to win against Leverkusen at home, even with 40% possession they were still able to score two goals and maintain a solid defense against Leverkusen's repeated attacks, but the effectiveness of Dortmund's game was only above Leverkusen and that's what made them succeed in achieving this important victory. and now they are in 3rd place, only 1 point different from Leipzig, if they are able to maintain consistent performance and win in the next few matches, they have a big chance to move up to the runner-up position.

[Pandu Geddon]

Dortmund's game was quite good because they were able to win against Leverkusen at home, even with 40% possession they were still able to score two goals and maintain a solid defense against Leverkusen's repeated attacks, but the effectiveness of Dortmund's game was only above Leverkusen and that's what made them succeed in achieving this important victory. and now they are in 3rd place, only 1 point different from Leipzig, if they are able to maintain consistent performance and win in the next few matches, they have a big chance to move up to the runner-up position.

It was not an easy match for Dortmund, but they managed to win the game. An amazing result. Leverkusen didn't play badly, it's just that Dortmund's solid performance made the Leverkusen players struggle. Both teams will meet again soon, and the situation might be different. But we'll see whether Dortmund can frustrate Leverkusen again, or if Leverkusen will take revenge for their loss.

[bitgolden]

Bayern Munich is doing a wonderful job and I am sure that they will continue to do it as long as possible. I do not think that they will lose anything anytime soon, so there is really no need for them to have anything worrying about other teams. Doesn't matter if it's Leipzig or Leverkusen or Dortmund of Frankfurt, they do not loo kat other teams and worry themselves.

This means other teams also know that they can't be as good as Bayern Munich, they are going to end up failing to do that and there is no need for them to consider this as a possibility. Which is why I think it's clear that we are going to see Bayern focus a lot more on UCL than they do on Bundesliga since there is no need to really be worried about that.

[Callido]

Bayern Munich is doing a wonderful job and I am sure that they will continue to do it as long as possible. I do not think that they will lose anything anytime soon, so there is really no need for them to have anything worrying about other teams. Doesn't matter if it's Leipzig or Leverkusen or Dortmund of Frankfurt, they do not loo kat other teams and worry themselves.

Among the teams you mentioned, Bayern Munich surpases them, cannot compare what happened between Bayern and Arsenal to what any of the teams above can do to Bayern, on another level Bayern will defeat them at ease. That doesn't mean Bayern won't lose any game, some games, Bayern are going to perform badly in a way they won't win or they end up sharing points.

[Merit.s]

Dortmund's game was quite good because they were able to win against Leverkusen at home, even with 40% possession they were still able to score two goals and maintain a solid defense against Leverkusen's repeated attacks, but the effectiveness of Dortmund's game was only above Leverkusen and that's what made them succeed in achieving this important victory. and now they are in 3rd place, only 1 point different from Leipzig, if they are able to maintain consistent performance and win in the next few matches, they have a big chance to move up to the runner-up position.

It was not an easy match for Dortmund, but they managed to win the game. An amazing result. Leverkusen didn't play badly, it's just that Dortmund's solid performance made the Leverkusen players struggle. Both teams will meet again soon, and the situation might be different. But we'll see whether Dortmund can frustrate Leverkusen again, or if Leverkusen will take revenge for their loss.

Dortmund was lucky to win the game. I expected more from Leverkusen because the dominated the game but funds it difficult to find the back of the net which was the advantage that Dortmund utilized properly.

It's only Bayern that don't have a problem when they clash with Dortmund, apart from them any team that thinks they are strong would be humbled by Dortmund. I live football because it is when you think that you know it all, is when football will prove you wrong.

[Ndabagi01]

I see that Dortmund actually has a better efficiency at conversion than Leverkusen does, this is because neither of both teams did played poorly in the yesterday's game but the ability to utilise opportunities when they come was the absolute edge one had over the other and it did worked perfectly for the other as against the other, so in this their meeting again, I am hoping Leverkusen should have learnt already.

Their encounter was actually one of the toughest ones and even before the match, I expected a lot of goals from the game as seen in the game. They have been playing quite a number of good games in recent times but they seems not to amaze me yet as they don’t stand a chance to put fear into the minds of their greatest opponents which is Bayern Munich. They are just riding their good time away and as they seem to be more structured and their eyes on the trophy as it should suppose to be. I hope they both show a very strong performance in their coming games as they did to each other in this game, I expect something better from them, so they should keep up with other games with this performance.

[Adiljutt156]

In the end, the big match between Leverkusen and Dortmund ended with Dortmund winning, the final score being 1-2 in Leverkusen's home ground. This time, Dortmund managed to overtake Leverkusen's position and become the top 3 for now with the 3 points obtained. Now, Dortmund has 25 points and Leverkusen 23 points, a very close gap, and there is still the possibility that it can change again in the upcoming matches.


Source: Dortmund overtake Leverkusen in the Bundesliga

Another football drama just happened in Germany, after beating Manchester city in the UCL I thought Bayer Leverkusen would have a bit more motivated to continue in this winning streaks at least for three games or more but I was surprised seeing them lose to Dortmund at home after recording an astonishing win against a highly rated team like Manchester city, the Leverkusen side seems to be very inconsistent in maintaining winning streaks and this might be very detrimental to their progress this season.

Bayer Leverkusen was the more dominant team throughout the match, but Dortmund were more successful in scoring. Borussia Dortmund's three points wasn't surprising, as they are one of Germany's strongest teams. They also played well against Bayern Munich, but were defeated. Nevertheless, their performance was good. Furthermore, this result isn't surprising for Dortmund, who beat Villarreal 4-0. Dortmund also played a very good match in the Champions League. In short, Dortmund won a match that both teams could have won. Therefore, the other team, Leverkusen, didn't disappoint, as it was a tough match, and the better team won.

We saw match of Bundesliga and that was two sided match because both teams played very well in this match and one team was good to do more goals in this match and opponent team was good in stats . Anselmino was a person who did first goal of the match and he did this goal at 41 minutes of the match and he gave start to his team. In the second half we saw two goals and 1 goal was by one team and 1 by another team . Adeyemi was a person who did important goal of the match and he did this goal at  65 minutes of the match and made match slightly to their sides. The shots of that team were less in this match which were only 6 and 4 shots were on target and possession percentage of that team was 40 percent in this match and passes of that team were also low in this match but they became successful to do back to back goals in this match which is not an easy for any team in this match.

[Moreno233]

Dortmund were clearly better than Leverkusen in that match. Having close number of shots isn't enough to prove 2 teams playing similarly. Efficiency is a more important factor and Dortmund were definitely better at that!

The thing I'm not contented with on their side is their number of goals this season. They are great about it in the Champions League with 3.4 goals average per game. But it is only 1.75 in the Bundesliga... 

Borussia Dortmund is a good team this season as they have won some serious matches, so I was not surprised how they played Bayern Leverkusen. I didn't  expect that Dortmund will be two goals up in the game and that Leverkusen will just manage to scratch out a goal before the full time, it just happens that Dortmund was the better side. My only problem with Dortmund is their inconsistency which is why they gap between them and Bayern Munic is so wide. Assuming they won some of the matches they drew, they would have been able to close that gap. The best they can get this season is a second position.

[$crypto$]

Bayern Munich is doing a wonderful job and I am sure that they will continue to do it as long as possible. I do not think that they will lose anything anytime soon, so there is really no need for them to have anything worrying about other teams. Doesn't matter if it's Leipzig or Leverkusen or Dortmund of Frankfurt, they do not loo kat other teams and worry themselves.

The Bundesliga will still belong to Bayern Munich entirely. lol
You can see the history of trophies won by Bayern Munich in this Bundesliga, no one can match it.

This means other teams also know that they can't be as good as Bayern Munich, they are going to end up failing to do that and there is no need for them to consider this as a possibility. Which is why I think it's clear that we are going to see Bayern focus a lot more on UCL than they do on Bundesliga since there is no need to really be worried about that.

Well indeed the Champion League is a bit more difficult even though Bayern Munich have won several times but still every season in the UCL competition no one can get the next title except Real Madrid in a row 3x during Zidane's tenure --- will still be Bayern Munich remains the strongest candidate.