Nights Watch by Afrikoin

[Okurkabinladin]

Could you please explain what does your abc pattern correct? Both your a and you c have made significant ATHs...

Here's how a bear market really looks like https://ibb.co/fD5Rak

Where in the past year did Afrikoin said that we will enter bear market in near future? 

To my knowledge, he was one of the first people, that rallied around Masterluc, when he pointed out the start of next bull run. Therefore, the only point of contention are corrections and durations of them. For the sake of time scale and predicting the eventual top (9000+ for Masterluc). What the fuck do you or Tedebare have with bear market all the time? Not everybody decided that HODLING is optimal trading strategy.


If it works for you, fine, more power to you. Advocating HODLING (as can be seen on your bit-simulator track record) however isnt purpose of this thread.

[Afrikoin]

I was referring to the big abc, where $1350 is your a, $891 is your b, and now we're finishing the impulsive c.

What does this big abc correct?

I believe that is where you and I disagree on our counts.

It is not necessarily a correction if the pattern is either of

1. It is an a-b-c if the larger pattern is an expanding diagonal as below

2. can also be an a - b -c if the larger pattern is an ending diagonal

both appear in wave 5

[RAJSALLIN]

Afrikoin so if I understand you correct you are expecting a final wave 5 now?

How high?

After the wave 5?

[Afrikoin]

Afrikoin so if I understand you correct you are expecting a final wave 5 now?

How high?

After the wave 5?

welll, looking around, almost all elliott wave charts i have seen agree we are in a wave 5.

what we seem to diasgree on is the shape of this wave 5

and the count from the $198 bottom from back in 2015 august


Generally, a wave 5 is final

Looking around at forecasts, besides EW forecasts, $1800-$2000 is a reasonable target.

What happens after a final wave 5 is a correction down.

The target of this correction depends on the count.

So for example, After the 5 – wave pattern finishes completes, the entire move will correct back to any where between wave 2 peak of wave 1 of lower degree and wave 4.

if the count is an ending diagonal wave 5, the correction is back to the beginning of the pattern.

Now, i could be wrong. And i dont want to be slated for speaking too soon. But hey, what the heck?


See this chart as an example

[RAJSALLIN]

Afrikoin so if I understand you correct you are expecting a final wave 5 now?

How high?

After the wave 5?

welll, looking around, almost all elliott wave charts i have seen agree we are in a wave 5.

what we seem to diasgree on is the shape of this wave 5

and the count from the $198 bottom from back in 2015 august


Generally, a wave 5 is final

Looking around at forecasts, besides EW forecasts, $1800-$2000 is a reasonable target.

What happens after a final wave 5 is a correction down.

The target of this correction depends on the count.

So for example, After the 5 – wave pattern finishes, the entire move will be corrected back to any where between wave 2 and wave 4.

if the count is an ending diagonal wave 5, the correction is back to the beginning of the pattern.

Now, i could be wrong. And i dont want to be slated for speaking too soon. But hey, what the heck?

So basically a bitcoin is dead kind of period after this top. Seems reasonable with the block size debate ongoing. Only thing I don't like is how far down it could go. It's just so volatile. It would be nice if after a new bubble top it wouldn't pop and deflate to such low lows.

Also masterluc was talking of this being a historical wave 3 (or something like that, I don't know much about EW). His top was around 10k. What differs from your count with his? He has been very accurate in the past.

[Afrikoin]

[Okurkabinladin]

Afrikoin so if I understand you correct you are expecting a final wave 5 now?

How high?

After the wave 5?

welll, looking around, almost all elliott wave charts i have seen agree we are in a wave 5.

what we seem to diasgree on is the shape of this wave 5

and the count from the $198 bottom from back in 2015 august


Generally, a wave 5 is final

Looking around at forecasts, besides EW forecasts, $1800-$2000 is a reasonable target.

What happens after a final wave 5 is a correction down.

The target of this correction depends on the count.

So for example, After the 5 – wave pattern finishes completes, the entire move will correct back to any where between wave 2 peak of wave 1 of lower degree and wave 4.

if the count is an ending diagonal wave 5, the correction is back to the beginning of the pattern.

Now, i could be wrong. And i dont want to be slated for speaking too soon. But hey, what the heck?


See this chart as an example

Afrikoin,

dont you think that Chinese paint all of this in different picture? Less than two days ago, they for brief moment broke the old all time high reflecting how they were lagging behind for the past weeks. Is it possible, that indeed we are only standing at the base of the mountain? According to stats, OkCoin and BtcChina have wave 5 and parabolic growth ahead of them.

[Afrikoin]

Afrikoin so if I understand you correct you are expecting a final wave 5 now?

How high?

After the wave 5?

welll, looking around, almost all elliott wave charts i have seen agree we are in a wave 5.

what we seem to diasgree on is the shape of this wave 5

and the count from the $198 bottom from back in 2015 august


Generally, a wave 5 is final

Looking around at forecasts, besides EW forecasts, $1800-$2000 is a reasonable target.

What happens after a final wave 5 is a correction down.

The target of this correction depends on the count.

So for example, After the 5 – wave pattern finishes, the entire move will be corrected back to any where between wave 2 and wave 4.

if the count is an ending diagonal wave 5, the correction is back to the beginning of the pattern.

Now, i could be wrong. And i dont want to be slated for speaking too soon. But hey, what the heck?

So basically a bitcoin is dead kind of period after this top. Seems reasonable with the block size debate ongoing. Only thing I don't like is how far down it could go. It's just so volatile. It would be nice if after a new bubble top it wouldn't pop and deflate to such low lows.

Also masterluc was talking of this being a historical wave 3 (or something like that, I don't know much about EW). His top was around 10k. What differs from your count with his? He has been very accurate in the past.

This is where counts differ

On whether encircled was a wave 1 - 2

Similar to in rectangle

Some say yes

Some say no

[Afrikoin]

See these 3 charts for illustration on how the bottom is counted differently

[windjc]

Why do you keep posting "Kappy's" chart? That B is invalidated. Are you trolling your on thread?

[Afrikoin]

Why do you keep posting "Kappy's" chart? That B is invalidated. Are you trolling your on thread?

Chart was emphasize disagreement on both

Is it?

Please download the chart

Edit

And show us why?

Can we also make this standard for responses?  If you say it's wrong,  show us how and where so that we all learn

[Kramerc]

Well, for once, because (C) is not allowed to be more than 1.618*(A). If it's more (and it already surpassed 3.618, so not even close), the move is probably impulsive, not corrective.

[Afrikoin]

Well, for once, because (C) is not allowed to be more than 1.618*(A). If it's more (and it already surpassed 3.618, so not even close), the move is probably impulsive, not corrective.

what do you think about this count?

ive been looking at the $161 bottom as the final bottom and was trying to fit a 5 wave count

[Okurkabinladin]

Afrikoin,

so, hypothetically, what top are we looking at in parabolic scenario? Even MasterLuc doesnt expect attack on 10k before late 2018 (and probadly much later). 2-3 000 USD per BTC in summer?

I know, you find it unlikely, so I am mostly asking for it being possible from technical analysis perspective and EW count.

[Afrikoin]

Afrikoin,

so, hypothetically, what top are we looking at in parabolic scenario? Even MasterLuc doesnt expect attack on 10k before late 2018 (and probadly much later). 2-3 000 USD per BTC in summer?

I know, you find it unlikely, so I am mostly asking for it being possible from technical analysis perspective and EW count.

I agree with masterluc

i dont expect 10k in the current run up

I also do not expect 3k

It is because all the EW counts have seen, or most , have us at wave 5. meaning we are expecting a top soon

I know people have bee calling for a parabolic rise, but i do not think this is it.

in fact, on one of my counts, i see this rise from the $162 bottom as a wave 5, and the bear market from $1163 to $162 as wave 4 (both of the highest degree).

For now, i see this run up maxing out at $1800 - $2k, and then a substantial correction

[Afrikoin]

Here is where i think we are

The pattern looks similar to the rise from $751


continuing from the count i have been watching for a while

[Afrikoin]

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/08/bitcoin-price-hits-record-high-and-4000-is-ahead-investor-says.html

But the example of litecoin shows that a so-called "soft fork" can happen which would increase the block size for bitcoin without major disruption.

"That example of a successful soft fork in litecoin has made people start to think that we could get a successful SegWit implementation in bitcoin and that could increase capacity and move us to the next level," Daniel Masters, director at Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund (GABI), told CNBC by phone.

GABI is an investment fund that is listed on The International Stock Exchange on the Channel Islands.

And what does this mean for price?

While bitcoin has seen a recent rally, previous peaks have seen sharp pullbacks in prices. Masters said the price rise has been "violent in the short-term" with bitcoin "fully valued for the moment". This could lead to a pullback to around $1,100.

However, the long-term outlook remains strong.

[Afrikoin]

[Afrikoin]

XBT Provider just published a factsheet on their Bitcoin ETN. Assets grew to almost $50 mln. I imagine the Winklevoss ETF would easily get $1 bn

https://xbtprovider.com/fact_sheet_dl/xbt_provider_factSheet_final_a4.pdf

[Dafar]

Afrikon are you still sitting in fiat or did you buy back?