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Nefario (OP)
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June 07, 2011, 12:01:10 PM |
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Yes I locked. Locked for reason. |
PGP key id at pgp.mit.edu 0xA68F4B7C To get help and support for GLBSE please email support@glbse.com |
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Even in the event that an attacker gains more than 50% of the network's
computational power, only transactions sent by the attacker could be
reversed or double-spent. The network would not be destroyed.
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Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
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Babylon
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June 07, 2011, 04:57:47 PM |
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You are either new or joking. It looks like it's the former.
Yes, i'm new in this forum. I don't know why you get the impression that i'm joking. alexk No, we are not going to change bitcoin protocol just because you arrived. All those things you've talked about have been discussed over and over. You should either accept built-in deflation or leave bitcoin economy, that's my advice. I don't think he is trying to change Bitcoins, I think he is looking to develop a new and better alternative. |
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Sedo
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June 08, 2011, 01:52:15 PM |
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How will the Deflation affect the Investment behaviour?
Say you expect BTC to have a 5% higher Buying power within a year. When you lend somebody 1000 BTC for 1 year, then their business would need to have an expected ROI of at least 5% + (reasonable interest rate that factors in the your risks of loss, etc..) + (their own profits (they needs to earn something, right?) ). I dont know much about profit expectations in economy, but is this not a high threshold?
It might become a common scenario, that you wont find investments that meet these high requirements, so people who have bitcoin will just let them sit in their wallets and accept the 5% p.a. gain.
On the other hand if you have a business plan, which is not highly profitable, maybe just breaking even, then you wont find investors or if you do, run a high risk of not being able to pay the debts by the end of the year.
I am not judging it yet, I dont know if this is a good or a bad thing. Maybe it makes perfect sense to not start a business unless it seems really promising. Maybe it will lead to more reasonable usage of our ressources? I have no clue.
Thoughts anyone? Am I missing something?
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Catallaxy
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June 09, 2011, 03:03:40 AM |
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How will the Deflation affect the Investment behaviour?
No, it doesn't look to me like you're missing anything. I would say, maybe, loans would be made on large projects where return was great, such as energy plants. If the loan was denied, people could more easily save up the capital themselves to invest in a small project. This could encourage more small businesses, innovation and competition if people don't have to take out credit to start a business. There would probably be fewer people buying lattes on credit. Business owners wouldn't get tricked by the ready availability of credit into misallocating resources on long-term projects like housing where there wasn't genuine demand represented by savings. So by the time all the people who should have gone into science got done building the houses out of the material that should have gone to say, solar panels, there would actually be people with money to buy the houses, instead of now where everyone is bankrupt, had no savings to begin with, or no longer has credit. Jesus Huerta de Soto explains this well: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF9RG3hyBZU |
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jtimon
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June 09, 2011, 03:16:42 PM |
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So a 10% deflation rate not only wouldn't be a problem but would in fact be good for the economy: amazing.
I'm starting to get as tired of your "deflation is good" dogma as I am of the keynesian "printing during a crisis is the only solution" one.
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Catallaxy
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June 09, 2011, 03:38:53 PM |
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There ought to be a way to ignore people on these forums.
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vrotaru
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June 09, 2011, 04:47:14 PM |
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So a 10% deflation rate not only wouldn't be a problem but would in fact be good for the economy: amazing.
I'm starting to get as tired of your "deflation is good" dogma as I am of the keynesian "printing during a crisis is the only solution" one.
Are you saying that goods getting more affordable/abundant at a rate of 10% per year is a bad thing? You see, the only reason there can be a 1/5/10 % price deflation in an economy with a stable money supply (and that what bitcoin aims to provide) is because there are more goods chasing the same amount of money. How bad can that be? And the only reason there are more goods is because people have found ways of producing them more efficiently, i.e. cheaper. Doesn't sound like a horror to me. |
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jtimon
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June 09, 2011, 06:07:21 PM |
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So a 10% deflation rate not only wouldn't be a problem but would in fact be good for the economy: amazing.
I'm starting to get as tired of your "deflation is good" dogma as I am of the keynesian "printing during a crisis is the only solution" one.
Are you saying that goods getting more affordable/abundant at a rate of 10% per year is a bad thing? You see, the only reason there can be a 1/5/10 % price deflation in an economy with a stable money supply (and that what bitcoin aims to provide) is because there are more goods chasing the same amount of money. How bad can that be? And the only reason there are more goods is because people have found ways of producing them more efficiently, i.e. cheaper. Doesn't sound like a horror to me. I get your point and I agree, but be careful, because some people can misunderstand your first sentence. If prices drop because goods are more abundant (or their production becomes cheaper), better for society. But a drop in prices is not necessarily good (just as a nominal increase in wages is not always good). My extreme example of 10% deflation was directed for those who are saying that deflation is good from the financial perspective. That kind of deflation rate is probably only possible due to credit contraction (destruction of the money created by banks) and with a monopoly on money. Anyway, a deflation like that would have catastrophic effects for trade and investing. What upsets me is that some people deny this. When the value of bitcoin becomes more stable than it is today, it won't have a deflation like that for two reasons: 1) Being free software, bitcoin will never have a monopoly on money. 2) Governments can't regulate fractional reserve effectively because people don't need banks to store bitcoins as much as they need them to store (and transact with) national currencies. In summary, I'm not much concerned with bitcoin's future deflation, but that's far from saying that deflation is good. |
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vrotaru
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June 09, 2011, 06:36:33 PM |
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I get your point and I agree, but be careful, because some people can misunderstand your first sentence.
If prices drop because goods are more abundant (or their production becomes cheaper), better for society.
But a drop in prices is not necessarily good (just as a nominal increase in wages is not always good).
My extreme example of 10% deflation was directed for those who are saying that deflation is good from the financial perspective.
That kind of deflation rate is probably only possible due to credit contraction (destruction of the money created by banks) and with a monopoly on money.
Anyway, a deflation like that would have catastrophic effects for trade and investing. What upsets me is that some people deny this.
Great! Sure, deflation as topic of discussions is very prone to misunderstanding. As if price and money deflation was not enough there's confusion about painful and harmful effects of deflation. A post-bubble deflation is certainly painful. Does not necessarily make it (the deflation) harmful. Also I do not think that a 10% deflation is such an extreme example. Take the case of 1920-1921 depression, when wholesale prices falling almost 40% from 1920 to 1921. From: http://books.google.com/books?id=190xVQDRtHAC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA111#v=onepage&q&f=falseA fascinating read the history of that depression. A few pages later: "Economy recovered despite of high rates..." |
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Andrew Vorobyov
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June 11, 2011, 12:11:08 AM
Last edit: June 11, 2011, 12:28:55 AM by Andrew Vorobyov |
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Totally agree with Suggester... These hurricanes on Bitcoin charts are not good for it.
I understand that we will definitely grow out of this things but they are HUGE obstacle for adoption by large businesses now...
No idiot will associate his business with such volatility.
I really don't understand why we can't have x% ( but fixed ) per year inflation or let it generate forever...
Of course it will drive away "get-rich-quick" guys... but who needs them anyway?
Only small percent of people see what BTC has to offer to the world others just wait to cash out their billions of USD...
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Andrew Vorobyov
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June 11, 2011, 12:50:45 AM |
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Ok, read full thread... people here need examples to understand things..
Have you ever been fucking when it is dry there?
Deflation kills lending... no lending - things slow down... and can stop eventually...
Take human body and blood example...
The root of your anger for inflation lies in UNCONTROLLED money printing by governments and ABUSING power of money distribution between closed circles...
BTC introduces mechanism to eliminate this problems...
I don't even want to comment on "I need money to start x - go earn it!"...
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Fakeman
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June 11, 2011, 09:43:15 PM |
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How can you earn money in bitcoins, aside from mining? I wouldn't mind correcting OCR or identifying images (e.g. google image labeler) in my spare time if someone paid me. Quality control is easy enough to automate by cross checking the results as a lot of sites do already when they have volunteers do these things, and there could be extra bonuses for high accuracy. The 'employer' gets a database that can be used to train higher quality image recognition software, or perhaps they use the results directly for something. Also, potentially someone doing such a project could rent out GPU time from individuals or pools by paying out bitcoins at a rate a little better than mining currently gives.
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16wEsax3GGvJmjiXCMQUWeHdgyDG5DXa2W
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AntiVigilante
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June 11, 2011, 11:46:19 PM
Last edit: June 14, 2011, 12:35:37 PM by AntiVigilante |
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Ok, read full thread... people here need examples to understand things..
Have you ever been fucking when it is dry there?
Deflation kills lending... no lending - things slow down... and can stop eventually...
Take human body and blood example...
The root of your anger for inflation lies in UNCONTROLLED money printing by governments and ABUSING power of money distribution between closed circles...
BTC introduces mechanism to eliminate this problems...
I don't even want to comment on "I need money to start x - go earn it!"...
I'm lending. I expect BTCs back. |
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afterburner229
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June 14, 2011, 12:15:28 PM |
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As I predicted earlier, bitcoin society has already started to freeze.
Not because built-in deflation mechanism,
but because of THE WRONG PARAMETERS of such a mechanism. THE WRONG PARAMETERS does normalize bitcoin society to be frozen @ equilibrium point ~ 10 000 people world-wide.
If you were selected ANOTHER TRUE PARAMETERS with the same built-in deflation, bitcoin society might grow & reach 1 000 000 peple w-w online daily.
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AntiVigilante
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June 14, 2011, 12:36:45 PM |
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As I predicted earlier, bitcoin society has already started to freeze.
Not because built-in deflation mechanism,
but because of THE WRONG PARAMETERS of such a mechanism. THE WRONG PARAMETERS does normalize bitcoin society to be frozen @ equilibrium point ~ 10 000 people world-wide.
If you were selected ANOTHER TRUE PARAMETERS with the same built-in deflation, bitcoin society might grow & reach 1 000 000 peple w-w online daily.
Don't project your failure to evolve on me. Kthx. I'm already doing loans. |
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afterburner229
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June 14, 2011, 01:36:55 PM |
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Don't project your failure to evolve on me. Kthx.
I'm already doing loans.
Let's wait for next difficulty change & see: http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/---------------------------------- Difficulty 567358 Estimated 847588 in 286 blks ---------------------------------- |
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Vince Torres
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June 14, 2011, 08:54:15 PM |
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The only thing deflation does is make the early adopters very, very rich people.
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Namecoin.com .bit domain registrar. Register a new .bit domain for just $1! BTC: 1LpKzg24NHmrxLZbnVphcstV3s7uA8cSnT LTC: LWHswCFRPouCXTNiT8B9HUVnGrae9eojVg
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MoonShadow
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June 14, 2011, 10:11:08 PM |
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The only thing deflation does is make the early adopters very, very rich people.
Maybe, maybe not. We will yet see. Regardless, this experiment is only two years old. You are and early adopter, if you so choose to be. |
"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."
- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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AntiVigilante
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June 15, 2011, 02:51:45 AM |
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Don't project your failure to evolve on me. Kthx.
I'm already doing loans.
Let's wait for next difficulty change & see: Okay let me put it another way, I am in the coin. I get my kids' diapers in BTC. I am long. I make a steady 20% to 32% by charging fees not interest. My format is doing well. |
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