Network just jumped up 100 petahashes!!!

[d57heinz]

https://blockchain.info/address/1MG3LEnxt4qBewi3BCy5Q6M2jCqgiDdtTC  here is the miner turning on and off..

Click on the first transaction, then click on "Show scripts & coinbase" (if not already shown):

0358b7052f4249503130302f0422dcf75508b8085ceb744200000f5b4254434368696e612e636f6 d5d20
(decoded) X�/BIP100/"��U�\�tB[BTCChina.com]

Not sure where you get the notion that they're turning things on and off; their block interval is fairly consistent (remember variance).
https://www.blocktrail.com/BTC/pool/btchina/1

alright i see what your saying.. Ill sit tight and watch for a few weeks more and see where we stand.  Thanks for the input guys.. Ive got a lot more to learn it seems..  Thanks again

Best Regards
d57heinz

[d57heinz]

well so its been some time since this thread.  I got bashed for it being variance.. But here we are.just like i predicted.. Over 500 peta hash for the network.. Now we are pushing 600 peta.. Anyone care to start a thread where hashrate will be next month.. I predict 580 peta.  Hashrate   606.32 PH/s  this is where we are at atm.  So you can expect just like i thought last month.. When you see this spike expect within two to three diff changes it will be at or past this in network hashrate..  maybe i start a thread that involves predicting network hashrate

Best Regards
d57heinz

[DrG]

Northern hemisphere is heading towards winter and so the minimal activity from home miners in the region will increase.  I'm not sure if the weather really alters plans for the big mining farms though.

[CryptoBjorn]

Maybe Hashnest is testing their new Antminer S8

[mavericklm]

yeah,  we have reached 1000000000peta atm!

[QuintLeo]

You're STILL looking at peak rates - the long term rate is still well under 500, though the increases since your original post might push to 500 as a non-peak average in another couple weeks to a month.

 We are NOWHERE NEAR your claimed 606 as anything but an instantanious PEAK rate.


 There is already a recurring thread predicting hashrates, no need to start another one.



 Winter has very little to no effect on major farms - they MIGHT be able to push their hardware a little harder, but it's NOT a big difference as they have serious cooling efforts already in place

.

[DrG]

You're STILL looking at peak rates - the long term rate is still well under 500, though the increases since your original post might push to 500 as a non-peak average in another couple weeks to a month.

 We are NOWHERE NEAR your claimed 606 as anything but an instantanious PEAK rate.


 There is already a recurring thread predicting hashrates, no need to start another one.



 Winter has very little to no effect on major farms - they MIGHT be able to push their hardware a little harder, but it's NOT a big difference as they have serious cooling efforts already in place

.

You're kidding yourself if you think weather doesn't play in even for the big boys - chinamine is a perfect example of this.

[mavericklm]

looking back at the winter of 2014, we can say that btc price is more important than cold weather!

[philipma1957]

You're STILL looking at peak rates - the long term rate is still well under 500, though the increases since your original post might push to 500 as a non-peak average in another couple weeks to a month.

 We are NOWHERE NEAR your claimed 606 as anything but an instantanious PEAK rate.


 There is already a recurring thread predicting hashrates, no need to start another one.



 Winter has very little to no effect on major farms - they MIGHT be able to push their hardware a little harder, but it's NOT a big difference as they have serious cooling efforts already in place

.

he should do one.  we can have a rivalry.

His style of prediction is vastly different then mine. Fresh thinking could jazz us up a bit.

 But I like the idea of a rival thread.

 Here is my Jan 31st prediction Diff is under 92 bill if price is under 375 usd.

@ op I really do think you could do one  and I don't mean this post to be sarcastic or negative.

Maybe your peak number has more value then people think.

It would be interesting to see how long it takes the diff to catch the peak.

[jonnybravo0311]

Wasn't there a guy running a long-term betting site?  You could bet on BTC price/difficulty at some point in the future... I swear I remember that.

Would be kind of fun... the long-term speculation thread.  Where do you think difficulty and price will be by year end?  By the end of Q1 next year?  Predict the date/time of the halving... all kinds of fun things you can speculate and bet on .

[philipma1957]

Wasn't there a guy running a long-term betting site?  You could bet on BTC price/difficulty at some point in the future... I swear I remember that.

Would be kind of fun... the long-term speculation thread.  Where do you think difficulty and price will be by year end?  By the end of Q1 next year?  Predict the date/time of the halving... all kinds of fun things you can speculate and bet on .

yeah  when diff  jumps used to be 10% or more I guy would piggyback on my thread a bit.    but when diff  jumps got lower  he stopped as over under was too easy.

I know I knocked heads with op with diff on my threads last week but in a calmer moment I went back and read everything we said.  I decided I was wrong and misread him.

I think his point is peak numbers have more meaning then you may believe and once a peak is hit  the network will reach that as  a norm in the future.

He could be correct and maybe his 606 hashmark or around 92 diff will come faster then I would have thought.

[HerbPean]

Wasn't there a guy running a long-term betting site?  You could bet on BTC price/difficulty at some point in the future... I swear I remember that.

Would be kind of fun... the long-term speculation thread.  Where do you think difficulty and price will be by year end?  By the end of Q1 next year?  Predict the date/time of the halving... all kinds of fun things you can speculate and bet on .

yeah  when diff  jumps used to be 10% or more I guy would piggyback on my thread a bit.    but when diff  jumps got lower  he stopped as over under was too easy.

I know I knocked heads with op with diff on my threads last week but in a calmer moment I went back and read everything we said.  I decided I was wrong and misread him.

I think his point is peak numbers have more meaning then you may believe and once a peak is hit  the network will reach that as  a norm in the future.

He could be correct and maybe his 606 hashmark or around 92 diff will come faster then I would have thought.

If you only look at the last 6 block, it doesn't represent the reality at all, it may be variance or it may be gear. As for now, we are pushing new gear into the network but saying out loud we just it 660 Peta is pretty much a very long shot to be 100% sure someone just throw 200 peta into the network and doesn't keep it online for x reasons.

It's like looking one feet away from you to predict the future ... He may be right, but it's a long long long shot. He should solo mine ;-)

[jonnybravo0311]

The point is, you can't look at such a small sample size and make any kind of useful determinations from it.  For example, if you look at just the previous 2 blocks (as of this post), it took the network 20 minutes.  So according to that, the total network hash rate is exactly on target for the current difficulty.  However, if you had made the same comparison about an hour ago, you would have seen that the network found 2 blocks within seconds of each other, so the hash rate was astronomical.  This is precisely why the network waits 2016 blocks to adjust... and even with that many blocks, it's still pretty much a SWAG.

[QuintLeo]

Peak numbers mean NOTHING, there is a very large random luck variation inherent to Bitcoin mining.

 It's like saying "I can hit 27mph in a sprint when the wind gusts hard enough at my back, so I can run a Marathon in under an hour!"

[philipma1957]

Peak numbers mean NOTHING, there is a very large random luck variation inherent to Bitcoin mining.

 It's like saying "I can hit 27mph in a sprint when the wind gusts hard enough at my back, so I can run a Marathon in under an hour!"

I use to think this way and in fact got into a fight with op accusing him of spreading FUD.  

  I now am thinking if you look at a 1 day peak in terms of peta hash  most of the time that peak ends up the new norm in under 60 days.
Not always but more then 65% of the time. So if we hit 606ph as a one peak 606ph will be the norm by mid January pretty much ⅔ of the time  that will be the case.

So peaks have tremendous future value as a predictor. But not so much current value. After reviewing all of op's posts  I think he has a good method for telling us the network ph 60 days from now.

[Exoskeleton]

All I know right now is that we are in for another 3 or 4 10% jumps at least. Bitmain and Avalon have a few more batches that are shipping out right now and are about to go online in force all next month. With the recent price rise people will turn on old gear as well. I don't know where we will go from there but I think we will see a massive price drop in gear and then another round of 10% or more jumps as that gear ships.

As a miner I really hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. If I could take back my last purchases I probably would because with the 10% or more diff increases the ROI is DOA. 

[QuintLeo]

Not sure about 10% for the next 3 or 4 diff increases, but I'd guess close to that for each - depends in part on when the B-Eleven finally shows up, and what Bitfury and Spondoolies manage to get built too not just Avalon and Bitmain.

[d57heinz]

Price   377.21 USD/฿
Hashrate   714.45 PH/s
Activity   125 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   4,923
Fee Rate   0.00002170 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size   https://chain.so/BTC
 

New all time high being reported by the wallet (from what ive seen) 714,452.51 TH/s  .. I believe its a 8 hour avg  honestly idk.(id appreciate if anyone can elaborate on how bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps arrives at its calculation?)..  ive been watching this spike since early 2014.. When it would spike to a new all time high according to the wallet it would be at that speed or damn close within a couple diff jumps.. What im looking at is if you look at the hash since day one.. you can see the obvious climb when we had asics come on the scene.. All that with 2 watt a gh gear.. With s1 and then soon after release of 1 watt per ghs gear we hit around 350 ph if i remember correctly.. Then we had s5 release which was .5 watt per ghs  but the net hashrate never doubled.  Now we are at .26 watts per ghs and some companies claiming less than that.. If they only replaced what they were currently running(thats all the big farms) then we should be seeing 700 peta at minimum and possible up to over 1 exahash if they all get to .25 watts per ghs..  I have felt this huge jump is LONG overdue imo.. Im not here to start a rival thread .. i feel the one you all do is just fine.. I just didnt appreciate being jumped on for speculating in a speculation subforum.. But anyway.. we are looking at another 10 % jump this time.. i feel that if manufactures run diff up too fast it will leave to dismal sales.. But i am not ruling out the theory of ghost farms .. hell could be testing batches .. or could be as simple as a ddos on a huge pool.. i dont know whats causing these huge swings..  anyway not here to step on anyones toes..

big jump showing here too.. have to wait cpl more hours to see it on chart  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Best regards
Doug
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

Price   377.21 USD/฿
Hashrate   714.45 PH/s
Activity   125 TX/min
Unconfirmed Txs   4,923
Fee Rate   0.00002170 BTC
Fee paid by unconfirmed transactions for every 1,000 bytes of size   https://chain.so/BTC
 

New all time high being reported by the wallet (from what ive seen) 714,452.51 TH/s  .. I believe its a 8 hour avg  honestly idk.(id appreciate if anyone can elaborate on how bitcoin-cli getnetworkhashps arrives at its calculation?)..  ive been watching this spike since early 2014.. When it would spike to a new all time high according to the wallet it would be at that speed or damn close within a couple diff jumps.. What im looking at is if you look at the hash since day one.. you can see the obvious climb when we had asics come on the scene.. All that with 2 watt a gh gear.. With s1 and then soon after release of 1 watt per ghs gear we hit around 350 ph if i remember correctly.. Then we had s5 release which was .5 watt per ghs  but the net hashrate never doubled.  Now we are at .26 watts per ghs and some companies claiming less than that.. If they only replaced what they were currently running(thats all the big farms) then we should be seeing 700 peta at minimum and possible up to over 1 exahash if they all get to .25 watts per ghs..  I have felt this huge jump is LONG overdue imo.. Im not here to start a rival thread .. i feel the one you all do is just fine.. I just didnt appreciate being jumped on for speculating in a speculation subforum.. But anyway.. we are looking at another 10 % jump this time.. i feel that if manufactures run diff up too fast it will leave to dismal sales.. But i am not ruling out the theory of ghost farms .. hell could be testing batches .. or could be as simple as a ddos on a huge pool.. i dont know whats causing these huge swings..  anyway not here to step on anyones toes..

big jump showing here too.. have to wait cpl more hours to see it on chart  https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Best regards
Doug
d57heinz

I did look at new network highs for the last year and in 19 of 26 cases .  when we hit new highs at a peak rate our average was there in under 2 months.

so a diff of 92 bill by 7 more weeks which would be 4 adjustments should be around 70% chance .

   Frankly I failed to see this idea of yours, but it looks as accurate as any other I have seen or thought of.
I could tell you a really long boring story about why I tried to find what I was missing about your idea.  but the short version is when I was dating my wife in 1985 I opened my mouth about a game of Trivial Pursuit  and sounded like an ass.  I was proven wrong in under 30 seconds.  Ever since then I force myself to step back and look at what I said or wrote.
     As for the huge up and down seesaw moves they mean something important but like you I am not sure of the mechanics behind it.

[Blamsud]

The hash rate will keep on rising as Bitmain has plan to deliver 40PH/s in the next two months. Bitmain usually delivers.