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Author Topic: satoshi dice lol  (Read 7664 times)
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:41:32 PM
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Does anyone actually believe Satoshi and their odds? I do believe the game is completely rigged. I had a great run up 70btc in 2 days. Then lost it all while betting only 91% chance to win games. Im new to this stuff but what are your thoughts?
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October 15, 2012, 08:43:27 PM
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80312.0

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October 15, 2012, 08:43:58 PM
 #3

You just described the very notion of gambling.  They have no reason to rig the game.  You said you were betting only 91% chance to win.  That means you had a 9% chance to lose.  9% isn't 0%.  

Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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October 15, 2012, 08:45:05 PM
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Does anyone actually believe Satoshi and their odds? I do believe the game is completely rigged. I had a great run up 70btc in 2 days. Then lost it all while betting only 91% chance to win games. Im new to this stuff but what are your thoughts?

I don't think it is purposely rigged but I have noticed that there are lucky periods and unlucky periods. I don't know if it is still true, but it seems that if you play 5 times per transaction and the first bet wins, they all win.

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October 15, 2012, 08:49:09 PM
 #5

The math on SatoshiDICE is absolutely fair and transparent. The whole point is that if you don't trust the site, you can check it using the hashes of the transactions (it's a bit complicated to do this but many have done it).

Not only is SatoshiDICE fair, it is -provably- fair, and is one of the first online games in the world to be able to prove its fairness (one more awesome benefit of Bitcoin).
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:49:45 PM
 #6

Im not talking about 1 bet at 91% chance im talking multiple bets over the course of a day and eventually losing all your money. Thats statistically improbable yet it happens all the time. I especialy love when i do a big bet with the less than 60 000# and the I lose because the number that come out is 60 008. You cant possibly think that its random lol
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October 15, 2012, 08:50:49 PM
 #7

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  


Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:50:55 PM
 #8

The math on SatoshiDICE is absolutely fair and transparent. The whole point is that if you don't trust the site, you can check it using the hashes of the transactions (it's a bit complicated to do this but many have done it).

Not only is SatoshiDICE fair, it is -provably- fair, and is one of the first online games in the world to be able to prove its fairness (one more awesome benefit of Bitcoin).

Im not following. How can you prove that the numbers generated are actually random just from hashes?
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:51:24 PM
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You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do. 

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?
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October 15, 2012, 08:52:19 PM
 #10

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this.  

Example:  How many times do you expect to win out of 100 on this bet?  97.  You expect to lose 3 times.  This will give the house a profit of about 2% and you a loss of about 2% due to the payout structure of the 97% bet.  
Quote
lessthan 64000   97.6563%   1.004x   1.900%   98.100%   0.0010   250.0000

Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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October 15, 2012, 08:52:58 PM
 #11

"satoshi dice lol" indeed... I laughed!
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:54:50 PM
 #12

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this. 

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.
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October 15, 2012, 08:55:56 PM
 #13

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this. 

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet. 

Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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October 15, 2012, 08:58:24 PM
 #14

Not sure if OP is a big troll or just a 6 year old kid that doesn't yet understand the math...

If I'm not mistaken satoshidice uses mental poker strategies. Study up.
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 08:58:41 PM
 #15

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this. 

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet. 

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.
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October 15, 2012, 09:02:12 PM
 #16

Level of hiding behind "questions" while not having the balls to file an official scam accusation: ryann.

Also, you might have a gambling problem.

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SgtSpike
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October 15, 2012, 09:03:17 PM
 #17

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this. 

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.
Because on that 3% chance that they do lose, they lose everything.  Some people don't want to take that sort of chance.

Try it this way:
- Create a new Excel document.
- In A2, type "=RANDBETWEEN(0,65536)"
- In B1, type "1000", or whatever starting Bitcoin balance you want to simulate.
- In B2, type "=IF(A2<64000,B1*1.004,0)"
- Now, copy A2 and B2 downward as far as you want, to simulate as many bets as you want.
- To refresh with a new set of random numbers, just click on an empty cell, and push the Delete key on your keyboard.
- You will soon find out why no one does extremely large bets on that odd.
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October 15, 2012, 09:03:56 PM
 #18

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this. 

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet. 

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.
They do call it luck for a reason...
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October 15, 2012, 09:07:18 PM
 #19

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this.  

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet.  

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

If you in deed lost 25 times in a roll on the 91% chance bet, then I agree, that's pretty improbable (though still possible). Please show me proof that it happened.

btc: 15sFnThw58hiGHYXyUAasgfauifTEB1ZF6
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 09:08:10 PM
 #20

You cant possibly think that its random lol

Yes I do.  

Why not play the 97% chance to win constantly and become a millionaire then?

It doesn't work that way.  You have a 97% chance to win a single bet, but look at how low your percentage of payout is.  This still gives the house an edge.  You will ultimately lose doing this.  

Why is noone doing extremly large bets on that odd once then? a 07% chance to win is extremely high probability in any case. The anser is because they know when they do the big bet that the number 65000 will come out. Like usual.

Some people do.  And most people win that single bet.  

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

If you in deed lost 25 times in a roll on the 91% chance bet, then I agree, that's pretty improbable (though still possible). Please show me proof that it happened.

How can I show the proof? IS there somewhere I can look up the records??
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