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Author Topic: satoshi dice lol  (Read 7661 times)
ryann
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October 15, 2012, 09:24:48 PM
 #21

Guess not
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October 15, 2012, 09:37:07 PM
 #22

Guess not
Post your transaction ID's.
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October 15, 2012, 09:47:43 PM
 #23

Guess not

Wow impatient much?

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=

^^^ that lets you lookup the status of a transaction. You can click the details link and all the info is there to verify that the roll was pre-determined legitimate but you have to understand some of the hash stuff to do that.

In other words, it's impossible for the system to cheat people, because people could check bets after they were made and discover the cheating.
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October 15, 2012, 11:33:08 PM
 #24

Random is a conspiracy. Wake up sheeple !
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October 16, 2012, 01:59:34 AM
 #25

Cry more because you didn't quit while you were ahead. Really, cry more. It'll help. I promise. Fucktard.
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October 16, 2012, 06:23:18 AM
 #26

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.

Just-Dice                 ██             
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October 16, 2012, 09:46:04 AM
 #27

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.
That's exactly what someone trying martingale strategy would say, it might be what actually happened here.
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October 16, 2012, 03:12:40 PM
 #28

I guess im that unlucky guy that loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance to win game the day after winning large sums in the same game.

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.
That's exactly what someone trying martingale strategy would say, it might be what actually happened here.

I watched black hit 16 times in a row on roulette.  I said, "Well just f me in the a!"   Cheesy

Rare?  Sure.  Chances are something like (ignoring 0 green) 0.001525%.  But does it happen?  Yep.  .001525% is not 0%. 

Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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October 16, 2012, 09:52:24 PM
 #29

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.
That's exactly what someone trying martingale strategy would say, it might be what actually happened here.

I watched black hit 16 times in a row on roulette.  I said, "Well just f me in the a!"   Cheesy

Rare?  Sure.  Chances are something like (ignoring 0 green) 0.001525%.  But does it happen?  Yep.  .001525% is not 0%. 

There's a difference between 16 50% chance events happening and 25 9% chance events happening.  .001525% is not 0%, but 0.0000000000000000000000001472% is pretty much 0% - and that's the percentage chance of losing 25 "lessthan 60000" bets in a row.  ie. it didn't happen.

Code:
>>> "%.28f" % ((1 - 60000/65536.0)**25 * 100)
'0.0000000000000000000000001472'

Just-Dice                 ██             
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October 16, 2012, 10:03:29 PM
 #30

All your luck is belong to ME >Smiley
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October 16, 2012, 10:13:58 PM
 #31

I doubt it.  Nobody loses 25 times in a row on a 91% chance bet.  The odds against it happening are massive.
That's exactly what someone trying martingale strategy would say, it might be what actually happened here.

I watched black hit 16 times in a row on roulette.  I said, "Well just f me in the a!"   Cheesy

Rare?  Sure.  Chances are something like (ignoring 0 green) 0.001525%.  But does it happen?  Yep.  .001525% is not 0%. 

There's a difference between 16 50% chance events happening and 25 9% chance events happening.  .001525% is not 0%, but 0.0000000000000000000000001472% is pretty much 0% - and that's the percentage chance of losing 25 "lessthan 60000" bets in a row.  ie. it didn't happen.

Code:
>>> "%.28f" % ((1 - 60000/65536.0)**25 * 100)
'0.0000000000000000000000001472'

Well no...OP didn't understand the math and was obviously exaggerating.  Even the lowest on the IQ totem pole would have surely quit after that 24th loss lol

Charlie Kelly: I'm pleading the 5th.  The Attorney: I would advise you do that.  Charlie Kelly: I'll take that advice under cooperation, alright? Now, let's say you and I go toe-to-toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor?  The Attorney: You know, I don't think I'm going to do anything close to that and I can clearly see you know nothing about the law.
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October 16, 2012, 10:24:30 PM
 #32

Always set a betting limit of how much you're willing to lose.
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October 26, 2012, 12:03:43 AM
 #33

Im not talking about 1 bet at 91% chance im talking multiple bets over the course of a day and eventually losing all your money. Thats statistically improbable yet it happens all the time. I especialy love when i do a big bet with the less than 60 000# and the I lose because the number that come out is 60 008. You cant possibly think that its random lol
Have you read how it works? read it again, and try harder to comprehend

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November 15, 2012, 04:36:28 AM
 #34

Does anyone actually believe Satoshi and their odds? I do believe the game is completely rigged. I had a great run up 70btc in 2 days. Then lost it all while betting only 91% chance to win games. Im new to this stuff but what are your thoughts?

When you had your "great run" that defied the odds, you weren't complaining then. My advice is to stop gambling.

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November 28, 2012, 11:24:25 AM
 #35

The house always wins?  Grin

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December 12, 2012, 10:08:51 AM
 #36

Does anyone actually believe Satoshi and their odds? I do believe the game is completely rigged. I had a great run up 70btc in 2 days. Then lost it all while betting only 91% chance to win games. Im new to this stuff but what are your thoughts?

When you had your "great run" that defied the odds, you weren't complaining then. My advice is to stop gambling.

This is what makes me lol
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January 01, 2013, 04:07:43 AM
 #37

Did you place all the best from the same bitcoin address?  Because if so, post that address and we will eventually show you proof of where you went wrong.  It seems likely to me that you didn't lose 25 times in a row, but you slowly but surely achieved the 98.1% return over and over again until you hit zero.  The 98.1% return means if you play long enough, you can expect to end up with 98.1% of what you started with, and that usually takes only a few bets, and at 91% odds, I estimate several wins and then a loss or two to get there.  Your transaction IDs will be interesting to study.

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January 15, 2013, 04:56:21 AM
 #38

This has to be the most obvious place not to gamble at, because they put the odds right in front of your face. I did 4-5 bets then quit because the payouts were so low for the amount of risk.


Just think, the amount of coins you'll have to risk to amount to that of the amount of coins you'll lose would take foreverrrr playing safe. AND just take one loss will automatically screw you over, so playing the lesser odds is actually worse in the long run because even though it's 3% you'll risk 300BTC every time to get $13 (or something like that). So you'd have to play a couple hundred times to amount to the money you'd lose during that time. So I'm pretty sure that means you have a 6% chance at losing your 300BTC before you make that amount of money back that you'd lose.

Odds are right in front of your face though, it's better to play games like Blackjack where you at least have a tiny bit of say in what the outcome is. All gambling is, is the house vs. you, and in the end the house always wins no matter what, or else they wouldn't be in business.

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January 25, 2013, 05:19:40 AM
 #39

This has to be the most obvious place not to gamble at, because they put the odds right in front of your face. I did 4-5 bets then quit because the payouts were so low for the amount of risk.


Just think, the amount of coins you'll have to risk to amount to that of the amount of coins you'll lose would take foreverrrr playing safe. AND just take one loss will automatically screw you over, so playing the lesser odds is actually worse in the long run because even though it's 3% you'll risk 300BTC every time to get $13 (or something like that). So you'd have to play a couple hundred times to amount to the money you'd lose during that time. So I'm pretty sure that means you have a 6% chance at losing your 300BTC before you make that amount of money back that you'd lose.

Odds are right in front of your face though, it's better to play games like Blackjack where you at least have a tiny bit of say in what the outcome is. All gambling is, is the house vs. you, and in the end the house always wins no matter what, or else they wouldn't be in business.
1.9% is far lower than most blackjack, roulette, lotto, etc games.
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January 25, 2013, 05:40:27 AM
 #40

Since this seems to be the thread to post in for people who can't math, I have a question as well: Would it be possible to win eventually if you just keep tripling your bet every time you lose or would the amount required be larger than the maximum bet allowed eventually (which I think the upper end is at 500Ƀ)?

Bets (at 50%)
1) 1Ƀ - Lose
2) 3Ƀ - Lose
3) 9Ƀ - Lose
4) 27Ƀ - Win (40Ƀ spent, 52Ƀ won, 12Ƀ profit) Lose
5) 81Ƀ - Lose
6) 243Ƀ - Lose

Fake edit: I answered my own question. If it took more than 6 tries, you wouldn't be able to break even much less profit due to the max bet allowed.

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