my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

[Piper67]

P.S. We are about to embark onto watching a new spectator sport called competitive adoption of Bitcoin.

It is exciting to watch, no?

It is already exciting. I even came up with the name for it Competitive ADOption Of Bitcoin -> cadoob.

glub0x@ the helicopter is just starting, the blades are just beginning to spin, those guys do not know yet that they are going to have to ride it and that they will be blindfolded when in the air.

Vladimir, you're a bright fellow, so we'll forgive you the cadoob faux pas... It's CADO, man! How could you miss that? 

[lebing]

Regarding WU and their ilk... I find it hilarious that Bitcoin is forcing them into Prisoner's dilemma AKA "a bunch of blindfolded guys are being tortured in a helicopter" scenario.

Invest into popcorn. Let's see who will chose to stay in the helicopter.

P.S. We are about to embark onto watching a new spectator sport called competitive adoption of Bitcoin.

I don't think they feel threatened. If so they would have start a FUD campain or ignore btc as a first stance. Btc is still VERY anecdotic.
I think they have some clever guy up in the company ( the boss?) and also consider that they have already did some drastic changes. They use to be a telegraph company.
So i think they are just considering an opportunity.

Now if they accept bitcoin all the competitors will rush into it that is for sure because the others will be at risk of being left behind.

They would have to be extremely naive to not be threatened by bitcoin. If they are not naive, they know what would happen by trying to put it down (how well did that go for the music industry?). The absolute best thing they can do is to modify their business model to incorporate developing technologies like this (as they have done many times in the past) and as they can make a good buck from it, they are doing so. Kudos to them if they create the first worldwide physical exchange infrastructure for bitcoin. Both bitcoin and WU will win big from this.

[siggy]

regarding WU and BTC.....

There is another aspect of the Western Union business that I haven't seen touched upon yet...  That is their Bill Pay service.  There are a LOT of companies that have bill pay agreements with WU.  

For example..  Lets take a well known bank.. Citi ..  If you are coming up on "late charge day" and you need to pay your mortgage NOW ..  you can take cash down to your local WU office and pay your mortgage IN CASH and have the payment credited same day.  

Same thing with my local electric company...  if you need to pay your bill TODAY or have your electric shut off, you can pay cash at the local WU office.

A lot of other banks and utilities have this same agreement with WU.

So, for those of you who keep saying "When I can pay my mortgage in BTC then.. bla bla bla.."  ... well get ready for the bla bla bla.. cuz if WU starts dealing in BTC, you can do exactly that.. PAY YOUR MORTGAGE WITH BTC.

Sigg

[chriswilmer]

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

[BitcoinTate]

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

This just popped up in my feed. These were the days, if only I had bought 50x more Bitcoin back then! lol!

[lebing]

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

I had the same feeling this morning as well. This feeling is very familiar.

[BitcoinTate]

Austin Global Exchange is a solid start to the wave. https://agx.io/

Has been a pleasure working with them the past week. Excited for regular trading to start and for them to add Fiat trading pairs.

[bitrider]

Yes. I feel the same. A familiar feeling. We have started building our base, and the pressure is just starting to grow. I think/feel we have a couple of months of boredom before the big movements. The pressure is just not strong enough yet. But it is there.

[BitChick]

I am right there with you.  BitChicksHusband and I were telling some friends to buy right before it was $200 in October saying that it had been stagnant for a while but we expected a big jump soon.  Of course, our friend did not act very soon and waited until the price was $400 to buy.   Oh well. 

But it does seem very similar for some reason.  The calm before the storm.

[glub0x]

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

I too was thinking to resurect my favorite post.
Nice to see I m not alone.

[piramida]

The day when all you guys are silently buying all the bitcoins instead of cheering here that's the day when we'll really taking off. 

True that. I'm only screaming RALLY, because I bought my bitcoins a few weeks ago and I'm getting ready to cash out at $15 or so.

I have a feeling you shouldn't do that.

Why not?

Now you know?

[smoothie]

Anybody think we're on a secret rocket now? I can't help but feel like that's the case now... by all metrics, the user base has more than doubled since last November... and it seems like a wave of US-based exchanges opening up is just around the corner...

I had the same feeling this morning as well. This feeling is very familiar.

1. New ATH by end of July

2. $5000 by year end.

CHOOOOOO CHOOOOO!

[ThirdRenaissance]

1. New ATH by end of July

2. $5000 by year end.

CHOOOOOO CHOOOOO!

I concur, except for the chooo chooo part.

[BTCtrader71]

I am right there with you.  BitChicksHusband and I were telling some friends to buy right before it was $200 in October saying that it had been stagnant for a while but we expected a big jump soon.  Of course, our friend did not act very soon and waited until the price was $400 to buy.   Oh well. 

But it does seem very similar for some reason.  The calm before the storm.

I was thinking this exact same thing yesterday. Hard to know how long it will take for it to start rising. My guess would be it's still at least a few months off. There are lots of people who first learned about bitcoin during its rapid rise last fall from ~ 100 to above 1000, who are not accustomed to its volatility and who are fearful after seeing the bad news from China, bad news regarding MtGox with some pundits declaring this will be the death of bitcoin, the spate of hackers stealing bitcoins unrelated to Gox, and drop in value from 1200 to 600 which to them is a HUGE drop. I think they will bounce back into euphoria when the following things happen: 1) a few more months go by and bitcoin does NOT die, ie its value does not plummet below, I dunno, 100 or 200 which was the prior support level in their eyes; 2) new high-powered professional exchanges come online, dispelling the argument that MtGox was the death of bitcoin; 3) absence of any other really bad news items (high profile bitcoin individuals arrested for torturing baby kittens, that sort of thing); 4) one or two other big-ticket good news items. I am hopeful that something like Trezor will make bitcoin more user friendly for a wider audience. But I am particularly looking for something like ebay accepting payment in bitcoin to be the trigger for the next huge rally beyond the prior ATH.

However, I think it's still a little early for that huge rally. Trendline analysis puts the value of bitcoin today at $837 / BTC.
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+since+jan+3%2C+2009%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

A rally in the 5000+ range before Dec 31 2014 is certainly attainable. The trendline puts the value at that time at $6519 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+31%2C+2014%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

Keep in mind that the April 10, 2013 peak of $266 was almost 4 times above the trendline of $75 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+apr+10%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

and the Dec 5, 2013 peak of 1200 (I forget the exact date and exact number) was about 3 times above the trendline of $409 / BTC:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10+%5E+%28+%28+3073%2F1000000+%29+*+%28+number+of+days+from+jan+3%2C+2009+to+dec+5%2C+2013%2F+days+%29+-+2.909514+%29

the point being that a strong rally can easily go higher than the trendline. Bear in mind that volatility should be expected to decrease with time, so a peak of, say, 2 times above the trendline at some point this year would not violate expectations. 

[phillipsjk]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

[Bit_Happy]

my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

my rational mind tries to find explanations for the intuition:

• ECB Paper, ZeroHedge coverage / ... taps whole new reservoir of potential supporters and enemies, this might initiate wider public/academic discussion
• I see an above-average amount of newbs trickling in that seem to be quite educated and understanding already (not your typical gamer kid)
• Market turmoil ahead with the reward halving
• Long consolidation period has been going on
• Ongoing and increasing distrust of fiat money and banking system amongst the general population
• Bitcoin fundamentally rocksolid and more and more people "get it"
• All this taken together might push bitcoin beyond the next "critical mass" checkpoint of adoption / public awareness within the next 1-3 months.
  
• ...
• rocket ignition

don't jump off

November 05, 2012, 11:41:30 AM
^^^
History records that after several months of waiting your rocket blasted our asses into orbit. 

[BTCtrader71]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

Lots of people would disagree! I still see articles almost every week (feels like every day) declaring the death of bitcoin, usually by an academic economist.

[seleme]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

Lots of people would disagree! I still see articles almost every week (feels like every day) declaring the death of bitcoin, usually by an academic economist.

Yeah, those smart arses were always right about Bitcoin, lol

[Asrael999]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

[arepo]

Well, crap. if everybody is in agreement the price is going to go up: that probably means I missed another buying opportunity.

if everyone thinks the price is going to go up its probably going to fall as everyone is fully invested and there is no one to buy the coins the bears are selling.  A market always follows the path of maximum possible pain.

+1

was gonna say this. an efficient market moves to minimize profits. always.