my intuition says: we're sitting on a rocket about to be ignited

[ElectricMucus]

The real thing holding the market back is a few people can dump enough coins at any one time to crash the market, if they wanted to.

I have >6000 coins. If I sold them all today at once, the market would take a dump belly and there would be some panic buying and selling.

If someone with 100,000 or more dropped them all at once, btc would be pennies.

The prisoners dilemma:
If everybody were to sell (or better use) part of their hoard over time the market would become more and more healthy as the fear of dumps depreciates. In terms of the dilemma that would be to cooperate.
On the other hand if everybody hoards there is the increasing fear of dumps which results in violent outbursts in the market price. That would be defecting in terms of the dilemma.
So right now almost everybody is defecting in an iterated prisoners dilemma, that's the worst strategy....

But you know, even very smart people can act stupid when in a horde.

[tbcoin]

If someone with 100,000 or more dropped them all at once, btc would be pennies.

at the moment it would take about 600,000 BTC for btc be pennies, but this is not true, because if someone start selling those amounts, would rise quickly big bid walls that would slow the fall.

[ElectricMucus]

If someone with 100,000 or more dropped them all at once, btc would be pennies.

at the moment it would take about 600,000 BTC for btc be pennies, but this is not true, because if someone start selling those amounts, would rise quickly big bid walls that would slow the fall.

Considering that is one market order only existing bids are considered. It would bounce, for sure but it would get there if only for a moment.

[tbcoin]

If someone with 100,000 or more dropped them all at once, btc would be pennies.

at the moment it would take about 600,000 BTC for btc be pennies, but this is not true, because if someone start selling those amounts, would rise quickly big bid walls that would slow the fall.

Considering that is one market order only existing bids are considered. It would bounce, for sure but it would get there if only for a moment.

True, really only would get a spread of $11, until new bid walls were lifted, since nobody is their right mind move a ask wall from $12 to $0.5 lightly...

[adamstgBit]

LOL, that would be an epic dump

[wareen]

The prisoners dilemma:
If everybody were to sell (or better use) part of their hoard over time the market would become more and more healthy as the fear of dumps depreciates. In terms of the dilemma that would be to cooperate.

Unlike in the prisoner's dilemma, you can very well use Bitcoins (i.e. cooperate in your terms) without reducing your expected reward from future price increases: by simply restocking your BTC regularly.

I happily spend, donate and trade Bitcoins all the time without my savings wallet getting touched. Unless your strategy is to hold even the last bit of your wealth in Bitcoin, there is no prisoner's dilemma here.

[ElectricMucus]

The prisoners dilemma:
If everybody were to sell (or better use) part of their hoard over time the market would become more and more healthy as the fear of dumps depreciates. In terms of the dilemma that would be to cooperate.

Unlike in the prisoner's dilemma, you can very well use Bitcoins (i.e. cooperate in your terms) without reducing your expected reward from future price increases: by simply restocking your BTC regularly.

I happily spend, donate and trade Bitcoins all the time without my savings wallet getting touched. Unless your strategy is to hold even the last bit of your wealth in Bitcoin, there is no prisoner's dilemma here.

Of course you are right. The Prisoners Dilemma is an oversimplification but there is an aspect of it. The problem is there are people who are even hoarding the Bitcoins they buy regularly and spend nothing.
Although I have no idea how many, but by observation on volatility it seems significant. I've read a paper recently which explains periods of high volatility or "hazards" by the strategy of certain investors to hold a certain percentage of total in an asset. This is what causes these spiky movements in-betweeen calm periods. So it's not only hoarding to be blamed but the overal investment strategy which leads to it.... even when every participant in the market acts rationally.
This is highly chaotic and a slight change in fundamentals can lead to drastic results.

[wareen]

Of course you are right. The Prisoners Dilemma is an oversimplification but there is an aspect of it. The problem is there are people who are even hoarding the Bitcoins they buy regularly and spend nothing.
Although I have no idea how many, but by observation on volatility it seems significant.

I agree. If I were to speculate on the causes, I'd say that to a great extend people are holding on to their coins not so much until they are worth a fortune but until there is something useful they can spend them on. You know, there is only so many alpaca socks you really need
The situation seems to be better in the US, but for the rest of the world, the amount of goods and services that can be purchased for Bitcoins and that one really needs is still rather limited.

Many people seem to happily pledge to buy Reddit gold, donate to the EFF or Wikipedia if only they could use Bitcoin for that. Sure, some probably do so in part because they simply want to reward Bitcoin acceptance, but most would probably genuinely like to help these organizations and for any number reasons prefer not using credit cards or PayPal.
Until people find a better use for their coins I can not blame them for holding on to them or even enjoy trading/speculating with them a bit. In any case, I don't really see hoarding as a long term problem of Bitcoin.

[the_thing]

The prisoners dilemma:
If everybody were to sell (or better use) part of their hoard over time the market would become more and more healthy as the fear of dumps depreciates. In terms of the dilemma that would be to cooperate.

Unlike in the prisoner's dilemma, you can very well use Bitcoins (i.e. cooperate in your terms) without reducing your expected reward from future price increases: by simply restocking your BTC regularly.

I happily spend, donate and trade Bitcoins all the time without my savings wallet getting touched. Unless your strategy is to hold even the last bit of your wealth in Bitcoin, there is no prisoner's dilemma here.

Of course you are right. The Prisoners Dilemma is an oversimplification but there is an aspect of it. The problem is there are people who are even hoarding the Bitcoins they buy regularly and spend nothing.
Although I have no idea how many, but by observation on volatility it seems significant. I've read a paper recently which explains periods of high volatility or "hazards" by the strategy of certain investors to hold a certain percentage of total in an asset. This is what causes these spiky movements in-betweeen calm periods. So it's not only hoarding to be blamed but the overal investment strategy which leads to it.... even when every participant in the market acts rationally.
This is highly chaotic and a slight change in fundamentals can lead to drastic results.

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

[BC12345]

Of course you are right. The Prisoners Dilemma is an oversimplification but there is an aspect of it. The problem is there are people who are even hoarding the Bitcoins they buy regularly and spend nothing.
Although I have no idea how many, but by observation on volatility it seems significant.

I agree. If I were to speculate on the causes, I'd say that to a great extend people are holding on to their coins not so much until they are worth a fortune but until there is something useful they can spend them on. You know, there is only so many alpaca socks you really need
The situation seems to be better in the US, but for the rest of the world, the amount of goods and services that can be purchased for Bitcoins and that one really needs is still rather limited.

Many people seem to happily pledge to buy Reddit gold, donate to the EFF or Wikipedia if only they could use Bitcoin for that. Sure, some probably do so in part because they simply want to reward Bitcoin acceptance, but most would probably genuinely like to help these organizations and for any number reasons prefer not using credit cards or PayPal.
Until people find a better use for their coins I can not blame them for holding on to them or even enjoy trading/speculating with them a bit. In any case, I don't really see hoarding as a long term problem of Bitcoin.

I completely agree with that.

As for the rocket analogy:
I think we are still in the blueprint/prototype stage...

[Cluster2k]

I completely agree with that.

As for the rocket analogy:
I think we are still in the blueprint/prototype stage...

The corollary is that after experimental rockets were designed and built they had a penchant for blowing up on the launch pad or soon afterwards.  It took many tries to get consistent successful results. 

[ElectricMucus]

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

[cypherdoc]

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

you sure did grossly misapply the conclusions of that paper to Bitcoin!  i didn't even have to read the paper, just the abstract.

you're totally missing the fact that the entity studied was gubbermint.  what source of funds do gubmints have that the rest of us don't?  why, the printing press!  that's what enables them to prop up assets to maintain price fiction.  of course that dynamic is unsustainable and will lead to volatility and bubble busts.  does Bitcoin suffer from that same dynamic?  of course not.  yes, its theoretically possible that all the USD being printed or borrowed could be causing Bitcoin to rise if it is just another ponzi asset.  but i don't think so.  Bitcoin is its own self contained new form of money that cannot be printed ad infinitum by a particular corrupt elite group like gubmint.  what's really happening is a paradigm shift from a bad system to a good honest system.  and that will be self sustaining.

the other problem i have with your reasoning has to do with hoarding.  no doubt that is going on with Bitcoin.  you see it as a bad sign; i see it as a good sign.  ppl are hoarding for a reason; the value of Bitcoin has not reached its equilibrium.  the collective wisdom of its market sees a "fair" price as being much higher than what it is currently.  why?  b/c its so new and the majority of ppl haven't heard of it.  the fundamentals behind Bitcoin are so strong that current hoarders are correctly estimating that the price should rise as awareness becomes more widespread.  most ppl "know" that the current fiat money system is corrupt and favors a select few.  but only a few of those same ppl know about Bitcoin.  that's going to change and fast.  hoarding should be viewed by you as a positive sign as it indicates a just and fair application of Gresham's Law.  ppl are "RunningToBitcoin".  hey, i better grab that site name before Trace does as i just coined a better site name than his. 

[the_thing]

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

I fail to understand what it has to do with the prisoner's dilemma or the game theory in general, but anyway...
Yes, hoarding (or lack of liquiduity) is a huge problem of Bitcoin caused by its underdeveloped economic infrastructure. Yes, it is one of the main reasons of Bitcoin's huge volatility. And yes, it is one of the most discussed topics in the bitcoin community. But it is not a fundamental problem caused by bitcoin's very nature. It is part of the phase we must go through and we wish that it ends soon. I have noticed that your posts mostly consist of saying why bitcoin is bad and how its price is bound to fall and stay very low. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate constructive criticism, but what you provide seems to me as pointless trolling (bitching and moaning) - hence the color of your ignore button.

Let's do something useful for a change : bombard Amazon with emails about why they should accept Bitcoin as a payment method, will you?

[cypherdoc]

another thing about hoarding.  you assume just b/c hoarders hold a "large" number of coins that they are going to "dump" them at any second and crash the price.  as i said above, they're hoarding for a reason; the price has not yet reached it "fair equilibrium price" which most of them are concluding is much higher than it is now.  yes, its not a science as much as you'd like so there's no way to determine exactly what number that is or when it will be reached.  but that's also the beauty of subjective value.  every hoarder will decide what that fair price is on the way up; $20, $50, $100, $1000, $10,000 who knows?  they will unload at different points along the way dampening volatility.  fair money will lead to less volatility in the long run, not more.  of course we had huge volatility last year but that was growing pain. look at the volatility since then.  its getting less and less as more ppl understand what Bitcoin is all about.  participants are getting less scared and more confident and thus less likely to dump.  

[ElectricMucus]

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

I fail to understand what it has to do with the prisoner's dilemma or the game theory in general, but anyway...
Yes, hoarding (or lack of liquiduity) is a huge problem of Bitcoin caused by its underdeveloped economic infrastructure. Yes, it is one of the main reasons of Bitcoin's huge volatility. And yes, it is one of the most discussed topics in the bitcoin community. But it is not a fundamental problem caused by bitcoin's very nature. It is part of the phase we must go through and we wish that it ends soon. I have noticed that your posts mostly consist of saying why bitcoin is bad and how its price is bound to fall and stay very low. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate constructive criticism, but what you provide seems to me as pointless trolling (bitching and moaning) - hence the color of your ignore button.

Let's do something useful for a change : bombard Amazon with emails about why they should accept Bitcoin as a payment method, will you?

I actually encourage you to press that orange button if you really think I am trolling and/or an idiot.

Anyway: I mentioned two different topics, or attempts at explanation. If you don't agree with em fine, but at the very least post a rebuttal of the points you think are fallacious in detail, don't accuse me of something.

[the_thing]

It seems to me that you're just trying to troll the rest of the community by disputing bitcoin with pseudo-intelligent bullshit.

No here is the paper I was referring to: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1282711
It may be that I didn't understand it well enough or falsely applied it's conclusions, but I was certainly not trolling.

I fail to understand what it has to do with the prisoner's dilemma or the game theory in general, but anyway...
Yes, hoarding (or lack of liquiduity) is a huge problem of Bitcoin caused by its underdeveloped economic infrastructure. Yes, it is one of the main reasons of Bitcoin's huge volatility. And yes, it is one of the most discussed topics in the bitcoin community. But it is not a fundamental problem caused by bitcoin's very nature. It is part of the phase we must go through and we wish that it ends soon. I have noticed that your posts mostly consist of saying why bitcoin is bad and how its price is bound to fall and stay very low. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate constructive criticism, but what you provide seems to me as pointless trolling (bitching and moaning) - hence the color of your ignore button.

Let's do something useful for a change : bombard Amazon with emails about why they should accept Bitcoin as a payment method, will you?

I actually encourage you to press that orange button if you really think I am trolling and/or an idiot.

Anyway: I mentioned two different topics, or attempts at explanation. If you don't agree with em fine, but at the very least post a rebuttal of the points you think are fallacious in detail, don't accuse me of something.

Sorry, ignoring people is against my beliefs. Not even Goat made me press the button!

I certainly don't think you're an idiot, I thought you were a troll, but now I'm not sure. Generally, I do agree with some (or even most) of the points you make but repeating them over and over again seems pretty pointless to me. The bitcoin economy is underdeveloped, we should try to change it. Unfortunately, I'm not of much help because I live in a shitty country and my english language skills a quite limited, but you could invest your time and effort in building the bitcoin economy one e-mail at a time. Think about it.

[waspoza]

Sorry to interrupt, i just drop this one here https://twitter.com/JoeCascio/status/269641282450776065

[cypherdoc]

Sorry to interrupt, i just drop this one here https://twitter.com/JoeCascio/status/269641282450776065

no freekin' way!  are u kidding me?! 

[Akka]

Sorry to interrupt, i just drop this one here https://twitter.com/JoeCascio/status/269641282450776065

I would say pretty unlikely, although in this Report (sorry German only), there is a guy from Google, stating that Google watches possibilities how the Bitcoin protocol could be used. So they are at least interested.