Rally Analysis

[koryu]

Welcome to my rally analysis thread

I said a while ago, if we go through the upper line of the yearly channel we have a chance for a real rally and then its time to get excited and analyze the new situation.

So let's go...

What happened before?



What now? The "fomo" channel was not sustainable. We are looking for a new support line.

I expect one of this:

360: part of the yearly channel, already tested, triangle is forming on it right now. could be already the low.
340: yearly channel, heavy support expected
320: we already tested this few days ago, I dont think we can fall below it.

I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely.




next posts to come:
- possible long term patterns
- gold-bitcoin anti-correlation / correlation
- why is bitcoin demand increasing
- good and bad news comparison



disclaimer: I am not an expert in ta. I hold bitcoin and am long term bullish.

[ssmc2]

Thanks for the insight! Great to have another analysis thread to follow 

[p2pbucks]

Keep writing OP , it'll be a rally to the ATH 

[koryu]

thanks

some more bullish indicators:

today the 365 day moving average changed to increasing. the 50d ma crossed 365d ma after the golden cross.
200ma is on its way up to 365ma for another cross.

[Chef Ramsay]

We're going up and that is what it is. This was a great sell off point, only to make a moon easily in our near future.

[Chef Ramsay]

China gives very few fucks about first sell off (LTC)

[Wells Fargo]

Are you talking about the medium trend of the price? Is it better to apply the year line to longer period, such as 5 year graph?

[Tstar]

Let's sum up something:
we were at 236$ on October 5th and then an upward movement started. A slow but steady one.
We reached 300$ on October 23rd and that is where "big" players started playing. And then...well you all know we had a pump up to 500$
Then we reached the bottom of 351$ during the recent dump and now we're battling to reach 400$ again.
My question is whether we are going to hit 400$ soon or not. Or we will be going up and down in the range between 350/400$

[sofuca]

Let's sum up something:
we were at 236$ on October 5th and then an upward movement started. A slow but steady one.
We reached 300$ on October 23rd and that is where "big" players started playing. And then...well you all know we had a pump up to 500$
Then we reached the bottom of 351$ during the recent dump and now we're battling to reach 400$ again.
My question is whether we are going to hit 400$ soon or not. Or we will be going up and down in the range between 350/400$

I think we'll hit $400 in a few hours. Hopefully it'll creap up slowly then on.

[koryu]

correction looks healthy and very similar to the last one.
10d ma holds since end of september, could be important for the next wave.

my guess we will go to the upper bb again 420+

[acquafredda]

Hi op and other fellas. This thread is giving away lots of good info.
From what I see any attempt of going beyond 390 on finex failed. If we break that then we can go where koryu said.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Fibonacci levels show a channel from $350 to $390 with strong overhead resistance at $430 on Bitstamp:

[koryu]

yes, I also follow this on the 4h chart



but I am very careful with intraday trades. It often looks like "next hours are critical" and then it goes sideways and we find a new line to follow.

Thats why i mainly watch the 1day chart and I am confident that we will have a green candle today


/e: also take a look at the comment section of this post, he is commenting the 4 hour chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCCNY/nDZkBPjT-BTCCNY-Bullish-above-2210-aiming-for-8818-35/

[CryptoBjorn]

"I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely. "

This is a solid point. I will buy back around 340/345. Long term bullish offcourse.

[zimmah]

"I expect 360 was already the lowest and we go up again from here but 340 could happen, 320 is very unlikely. "

This is a solid point. I will buy back around 340/345. Long term bullish offcourse.

You might have to wait a long time for <350

[DeathAngel]

It's looking like 400 will be tested again tonight, I expect to wake up to 420.

[acquafredda]

No good signs yet. Always moving around 380$ and still a lot of spread between China exchanges and ours. This is quite strange  to be seen

[koryu]

As announced this is my view of good and bad news comparison and also why I am long term bullish. This is my personal view/opinion. Although I believe that bitcoin will succeed I would never invest more as I can afford to lose. Especially not in times of high volatility.


Good and bad news comparison - Analysing Bitcoin

Positive:

Funds
When I read it I thought: It's happening. 2015-09-15 ARK Invest becomes first public fund manager to invest in bitcoin
The first fund to invest is WEB X.0 ETF (ARKW). When the news came out I checked their holdings: 0.8% of the fund was invested in GBTC. Til today they increased their position to 1.33%. Source
When more Funds start to invest in bitcoin this will be huge.

Regulated Exchanges (Geminit, Itbit, ..) and ETFs
GBTC and XBT Provider offer investors a new way to invest in bitcoin. Regulated exchanges like gemini or itbit are required for institutional investor after the mtgox mess.

First Sidechain Released and the Lightning network
The first sidechain was released in october. 2015-10-13 Blockstream releases sidechain called liquid
Sidechains add new features to bitcoin. For example the Lightning network could solve the scalability problem using payment channels.

Bitcoin Scaling Workshop
There are different attempts to solve scalability and it somehow splitted the community. There are different opinions, how bitcoin could scale. To solve this, it's the best way to bring people together, listen and understand the ideas of each other to find the best solution. Then implement it.   
Therefore two workshops are organized:
Scalingbitcoin.org
Montreal, Canada: September 12th-13th, 2015
Hong Kong, SAR, China: December 6th-7th, 2015

Halving
The blockreward will be reduced from 25 to 12.5 in end of Juli 2016. There will be less new coins.

Bitcoin Venture Capital
Check the list. Why do they invest in bitcoin related companies? Most likely because they believe the bitcoin project will be successful.

Banks
Banks start to rethink about bitcoin and blockchain. Blockchain is a hot topic right now and banks research it.

Here is an interesting article by Deutsche Bank: Blockchain – attack is probably the best form of defence

[...]Blockchain technology is one of the first truly disruptive ideas from the fintech sector. After all, pure blockchain theory says that not only will individual business divisions of traditional banks become redundant in future, but there could also be a real paradigm shift in the prevailing financial system, because many intermediary services could be replaced by a P2P network.[...]

[...]traditional banks would have to play their wild card of trust – which they (still) hold – in a much better way than has been the case so far.[...]

Several banks currently research "the blockchain technology". They dont like to use the word bitcoin. But there is only one global decentralized blockchain: bitcoin (and altcoins most of them are forks of bitcoin)
They hope to build private blockchains to be able to control the network but this is not the idea behind bitcoin. With bitcoin you do not have a party to trust.

Gold Bitcoin - Anti-correlation
Somehow it looks like bitcoin and gold are anti-correlated since the beginning of 2015
Is money switching from gold to bitcoin? Or is there another reason? I am actually researching this topic.

Currency War, Competive Devaluation
This is a topic I am very interested in but it's also very difficult. I believe that we have a Currency War (Competive Devaluation).
I am from europe and euro has lost from 1.60 to 1.08$. There has also a devaluation of chinese yuan recently. USD is going up against euro and cny. But is it true? Or is the devaluation of usd just slower than the devaluation of euro and cny? Nobody wants to have a strong currency in a globalized world because your exports suffer from it.
My opinion is that bitcoin should anti-correlate to fiat currencies so bitcoin should go up when currencies devaluate.

Marketcap
The current marketcap of bitcoin is 5,690,845,896$. I think that bitcoin will either succeed or fail. If bitcoin succeeds then this market cap seems way to low.



Negative

MtGox Coins
There are 200,000 bitcoins from the MtGox which was shut down. They could and prolly will have a temporary influence on the bitcoin price.

Scaling
Scaling of bitcoin has not yet been solved. Some people say this is a critical issue, i think its a major issue. Do your own research.

It's too early
Bitcoin is still experimental. This is actually true. Everybody should be aware of this:

Bitcoin is an experimental new currency that is in active development. Each improvement makes Bitcoin more appealing but also reveals new challenges as Bitcoin adoption grows. During these growing pains you might encounter increased fees, slower confirmations, or even more severe issues. Be prepared for problems and consult a technical expert before making any major investments, but keep in mind that nobody can predict Bitcoin's future.

Bitcoin should be seen like a high risk asset, and you should never store money that you cannot afford to lose with Bitcoin.

[koryu]

this is some wild speculation  but to kill time as long we go sideways...

timetravel back to 2013?



one coin four cups?

[8up]

a beauty she is.