Diff thread Nov 11 to Nov 24 Set up stage-picks are now closed!

[philipma1957]

New thread.

tss won last thread.

that thread is still open as I need to ship him a compac stick and suchmoon needs his BTC addy to pay him off.

We are going to try the shorter range as discussed.

Please don't post yet. I will need time to cut and paste.

[1714893206]

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[1714893206]

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[1714893206]

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[philipma1957]

New ranges below

pick times are block 600 to block 1200

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1229199.msg12854275#msg12854275


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1229199.msg12854582#msg12854582


Leaves  us with:

That is  a simple fix should work. We combine  your idea say


 .10%  ranges  and shift from blocks  300-1000   to   600-1200

should slow the rush a bit and leave room for picks

 

this correction to the negatives was made by suchmoon. 

so  -0   gives you 0 to  -0.9
and +0 gives you 0 to +0.9

this keeps negs and pos in a mirror image format. 




and down

-2.5  =
-2.4  =
-2.3  =
-2.2  =
-2.1  =
-2.0  =        -2.00 to -2.09
-1.9  =        -1.90 to -1.99
-1.8  =        -1.80 to -1.89
-1.7  =        -1.70 to -1.79
-1.6  =        -1.60 to -1.69
-1.5  =        -1.50 to -1.59
-1.4  =        -1.40 to -1.49
-1.3  =        -1.30 to -1.39
-1.2  =        -1.20 to -1.29
-1.1  =        -1.10 to -1.19>>>>>>>>>> philipma1957
-1.0  =        -1.00 to -109
-0.9  =        -0.90 to -0.99
-0.8  =        -0.80 to -0.89
-0.7  =        -0.70 to -0.79
-0.6  =        -0.60 to -0.69
-0.5   =      -0.50 to -0.59
-0.4   =      -0.40 to -0.49
-0.3   =      -0.30 to -0.39
-0.2   =      -0.20 to -0.29
-0.1   =      -0.10 to -0.19
-0.0   =      -0.00 to  -0.09


 0.0   =      +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1  =     +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2  =     +0.20 to +0.29
+0.3  =     +0.30 to +0.39
+0.4  =     +0.40 to +0.49
+0.5  =      +0.50 to +0.59
+0.6  =
+0.7  =  
+0.8  =
+0.9  =
+1.0  =
+1.1  
+1.2  
+1.3  
+1.4  
+1.5  
+1.6  
+1.7  
+1.8  
+1.9  
+2.0  
+2.1  
+2.2  
+2.3  
+2.4
+2.5
+2.6
+2.7
+2.8
+2.9
+3.0
+3.1
+3.2
+3.3
+3.4
+3.5
+3.6
+3.7
+3.8
+3.9
+4.0
+4.1
+4.2
+4.3
+4.4
+4.5
+4.6
+4.7
+4.8
+4.9
+5.0
+5.1
+5.2
+5.3
+5.4
+5.5
+5.6
+5.7
+5.8
+5.9
+6.0
+6.1
+6.2
+6.3
+6.4
+6.5
+6.6
+6.7
+6.8
+6.9
+7.0


and up as high as you want to pick

[philipma1957]

I like the delay to 600th block  and I like the .1 range

I don't care how high or how low you pick

but below -10%
and above +10%

are not likely to hit.

waiting until  late should still leave you picks  since there are simply more choices that  may hit.

I also think this will cause rollovers  since there are more slots.

I am going to check newbies very carefully  if we get flooded with them  we may restrict them.

So when you pick   just do

+1.0 notlist3d

or

-2.0 tss


  Obviously use your fourm name not the ones above.

I will do the rest.

[HerbPean]

Nice upgrades Phil !

[philipma1957]

Nice upgrades Phil !

it changes things up a bit  makes better chance for rollovers.

Pushes the art of waiting a bit more.

If it sucks we can always go back.

[ingiltere]

I don't know how this update effect the game but let's wait and see. It looks late predictions have better chances in the first glance.

[ezeminer]

It'll be a fun and tighter competition.

Going from a .25 ranges to a 0.1

Lets see how many people join in this time.

[philipma1957]

okay

first day in

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015     169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

we did 117 should be 103  I get +13.59%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (3.92%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,427,134,941 (+3.92%)
Adjust time:   After 1899 Blocks, About 13.2 days
Hashrate(?):   480,507,892 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   22:25 (4.1 minutes ago)

we start on block 600 so we have 3+ days to go.  waiting a bit after
will help your picking.

[Finksy]

+4.20 - Finksy   

[philipma1957]

+4.20 - Finksy   

way too soon bro.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,360,405,231 (+3.82%)

Adjust time:   After 1847 Blocks, About 12.8 days ----------------- When this reads 1416 we are 600 blocks in.

Hashrate(?):   495,574,861 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   7:0 (4.2 minutes ago)

I figure  2 ¾ days from now.

[philipma1957]

okay day two

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28


we did 268  should be 240  I get +11.67%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,428,800,986 (+3.92%)
Adjust time:   After 1748 Blocks, About 12.0 days
Hashrate(?):   498,510,886 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.7 minutes
6 blocks: 59.4 minutes
Updated:   22:25 (6.0 minutes ago)

11.67 + 3.92 = 15.59 average the two estimates = 7.795%  this would be a decent guess

[DanielRo]

+3.20% to +3.29% DanielRo

[ezeminer]

Daniel, You should keep up

+3.20% to +3.29% DanielRo

+4.20 - Finksy   

way too soon bro.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,360,405,231 (+3.82%)

Adjust time:   After 1847 Blocks, About 12.8 days ----------------- When this reads 1416 we are 600 blocks in.

Hashrate(?):   495,574,861 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   7:0 (4.2 minutes ago)

I figure  2 ¾ days from now.

[DanielRo]

Daniel, You should keep up

+3.20% to +3.29% DanielRo

+4.20 - Finksy    

way too soon bro.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,360,405,231 (+3.82%)

Adjust time:   After 1847 Blocks, About 12.8 days ----------------- When this reads 1416 we are 600 blocks in.

Hashrate(?):   495,574,861 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.0 minutes
3 blocks: 30.0 minutes
6 blocks: 60.0 minutes
Updated:   7:0 (4.2 minutes ago)

I figure  2 ¾ days from now.

Thanks . Sorry for to early pick up.
Did not read about the 600 blocks delay.
I'll pick up again after 1416 blocks.

[suchmoon]

tss has been paid.

I like the new rules. For the negative ranges I was thinking - what if we allow the zero to be picked by two participants.

i.e

-0.0

and

+0.0

would be valid picks, -0.00 to -0.09 and +0.00 to +0.09 respectively. If diff hits 0.00 both get paid. I'm quite confident in the odds against that

That would remove the slight confusion on the negative side and make both sides identical.

Diff change +2.24% = whoever picked +2.2 wins
Diff change +5.07% = whoever picked +5.0 wins
Diff change -1.51% = whoever picked -1.5 wins
etc

[tss]

yup.. got my winnings.  thanks guys.  i am a fan of the new format.  seems to allow more participants and a choice of picks. the last few contests filled in so fast you end up taking whatever is available just to be part of the game.

[philipma1957]

tss has been paid.

I like the new rules. For the negative ranges I was thinking - what if we allow the zero to be picked by two participants.

i.e

-0.0

and

+0.0

would be valid picks, -0.00 to -0.09 and +0.00 to +0.09 respectively. If diff hits 0.00 both get paid. I'm quite confident in the odds against that

That would remove the slight confusion on the negative side and make both sides identical.

Diff change +2.24% = whoever picked +2.2 wins
Diff change +5.07% = whoever picked +5.0 wins
Diff change -1.51% = whoever picked -1.5 wins
etc

Good point I will alter the negatives to conform to the positives.


and done in first post.

[HerbPean]

Really high peak today and doesn't want to get down so far.

Hashrate(?):   526,735,039 GH/s

[philipma1957]

okay day two  three

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

11-11-2015   169 blocks  this is a plus 25   now the first 77 blocks were on the last adjustment  So  on a part day I guess +14

11-12-2015  158 blocks this is plus 14    total is +28
 
11-13-2015   161 blocks  this is plus 17 total is +45

we did 434  should be 389  so   I get +11.568%    it is very early do not panic

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (+4.62%)  < note this is future guess   


Bitcoin Difficulty:   65,848,255,180
Estimated Next Difficulty:   68,893,422,058 (+4.62%)
Adjust time:   After 1582 Blocks, About 10.7 days
Hashrate(?):   525,067,336 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.2 minutes
6 blocks: 58.4 minutes
Updated:   


current number is really high.  I glad we decided to delay until block 600  and to tighten the ranges up to .10 percent  it will take a little more skill and waiting a bit looks like the better move.

with the way we are making blocks we could be at 600 in 25 or 26 hours  maybe less.

[Lituation]

Last 65 blocks for guesses. It would be too hard to guess now with 0.10 range. I think this time winning pick contains more luck than skills.