That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake.

[Wexlike]

Mat, you should consider writing a book about your bitcoin trading. It is awkwardly enjoyable to read about your recent trades and all this emotional clusterfuck.

[1714698963]

1714698963

[sgbett]

Ugh, you started trading again ?

who else do you think was behind the $2200 buy on gemini

[MatTheCat]

I learned important lessons about controlling impulse, exercising discipline, keeping emotions out the equation, and done some meticulous TA, and concluded that the market was far more likely to go down, than go up ..........
.............................................................................
............ I panic bought, at some $6 more than I orginally sold for, and witnessed the shit that was to follow. So now I am back in Bitcoin, at a higher price than which I exited the market (after having already taken horrendous losses on pump n dump), and totally against the momentum of the market, which I happened to have correctly read.

Hmm.....

Yes....but this was different. This was a clear break up from the consolidation formation. When this happens, 9/10 times it is followed by a significant upswing, so I had to act. Unfortunately, it was just some whale on Stamp who knew where all the Stop Buys where, robbing people blind, before he attempted to push the market down further....

....and now we have the 'epic battle of $320', where around 14K BTC worth of volume was traded on Stamp as ostensibly one whale kept dropping massive bombs into the Bid Wall, whilst another kept buying them up....or was it just one player? I suspect it was just one player, so what kind of statement is he now trying to make? Was that massive support combating the massive selling pressure meant to underline that at $320, the market stops falling?

It is awkwardly enjoyable to read about your recent trades and all this emotional clusterfuck.

Unfortunately it is also very bad for my health, and my financial well being.

[Amph]

when you have a 4B marketcap with something that should have the same market cap of gold, you know that you get something like this, a manipulated market

every single one of these groups or entity that hold those 100k coins in the top rich list, can easily manipulate any exchange with their 250k volume in btc....

[oblivi]

The market will be way harder to manipulate once we are a couple billion dollars above what we are now... I think a 50 billion dollar market is hard enough to manipulate for whales unless all those whales decide to join up and act in sync which is hard.

[Mickeyb]

The market will be way harder to manipulate once we are a couple billion dollars above what we are now... I think a 50 billion dollar market is hard enough to manipulate for whales unless all those whales decide to join up and act in sync which is hard.

Exactly this! We are like a small inflatable boat on the ocean full of waves! What do you expect will be happening. Rocky rides are guaranteed. The same is with Bitcoin.

When we get to the size of a big tanker market cap wise, the rides will be much smoother as well. Imagine if we had just 10 times bigger market cap of around $40 billion!

[jbreher]

Yes....but this was different. ...

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you may have had a lot of success in other markets. However.... this is different.

Bitcoin ain't a stock, and it ain't a currency, and it ain't a commodity. Further, the players against which you trade are not the same players from these other markets.

As long as you persist in using lessons learned in other markets, you are likely to experience further disconnect - both cognitive and financial.

[Biodom]

Ugh, you started trading again ?

who else do you think was behind the $2200 buy on gemini

cat finger...

[Biodom]

when you have a 4B marketcap with something that should have the same market cap of gold, you know that you get something like this, a manipulated market

every single one of these groups or entity that hold those 100k coins in the top rich list, can easily manipulate any exchange with their 250k volume in btc....

this does not explain why, as is why not make it go up 0.5-1% a day instead so your coins appreciate faster.
Currently, banks give $$ loans using stock as collateral. If btc is stable or goes up 0.5-1% a day, i can foresee bancks giving loans based on your btc holdings, but no one in their sane mind should take or give $ loans if it is $500 one day and $300 a week later or vice versa.

[ssmc2]

Ugh, you started trading again ?

who else do you think was behind the $2200 buy on gemini

cat finger...

 

[Syke]

So many great comments in this thread. Bitcoin is small and volatile. Trade accordingly. Like this:

SSS+buyback on dips. Doesn't matter which way the market goes with that strategy.

[Possum577]

The rules of the market are always the same - supply vs. demand.

Now how those market forces are engaged is completely up to what's going  on in the market. So yea, someone with a ton of BTC can flood the market and  the price will go down. Or someone can decided to buy a ton of bitcoin and the price will go up.

It's not manipulation in the bad sense, it's market forces working correctly.

How did the last run up and fall hurt you? It seems you're feeling that you've gotten screwed somehow.

[Amph]

when you have a 4B marketcap with something that should have the same market cap of gold, you know that you get something like this, a manipulated market

every single one of these groups or entity that hold those 100k coins in the top rich list, can easily manipulate any exchange with their 250k volume in btc....

this does not explain why, as is why not make it go up 0.5-1% a day instead so your coins appreciate faster.
Currently, banks give $$ loans using stock as collateral. If btc is stable or goes up 0.5-1% a day, i can foresee bancks giving loans based on your btc holdings, but no one in their sane mind should take or give $ loans if it is $500 one day and $300 a week later or vice versa.

because they(those strong guys with plenty of coins) want to maintain a certain level of value for every new pump, by letting the newbies investors increasing the price, and not increasing it with their money

[spud21]

So many great comments in this thread. Bitcoin is small and volatile. Trade accordingly. Like this:

SSS+buyback on dips. Doesn't matter which way the market goes with that strategy.

What does SSS stand for, and how does it work? I found some links about an SSS forex indicator through Google but I couldn't find a simple explanation of what it was. There were multiple different indicators, all with the SSS acronym, including the Forex Super Strong Signal Indicator, and X-Man's Super Simple System.

[jbreher]

What does SSS stand for, and how does it work?

I'm guessing the responder was referring to rpietila's SSS (Super Simple System?). How it works:

1) figure out if you are a belieber in bitcoin. If not, this system is not for you

2) buy as much bitcoin as you can possibly afford, as long as you won't kill yourself if you lose it all

3) figure out your personal coefficients for A and B (see step 4)

4) every time bitcoin rises by A%, sell B% of your bitcoin

5) enjoy a prosperous life

6) there is no step 6

[ReigningPigs]

Do you guys think market manipulation could be involved in Bitcoin's unpredictability.

[Wilhelm]

Do you guys think market manipulation could be involved in Bitcoin's unpredictability.

Bitcoin is very predictable because the supply and demand are very constant.
The only unpredictability is the people trading and mining bitcoin and not bitcoin itself.

It isn't only market manipulation, it is also our trust in Bitcoin
- Bitcoin is young and hasn't been around like normal money.
- Bitcoin is being traded by different cultures around the world with different trading ideologies.

[HarryKPeters]

There is a supply vs demand thing, but it is not influencing the price.

For sure there are some big whales company whom are dependant and benefit by this volatility. I expect that those whales eventually will lose their monopoly and the real market will have it's way.

Just wait till a multinational steps in, there is no way those whales can compete with 1 or 2 multinationsl.

[glendall]

Personally I'm a big fan of Bitcoin's volatility.  There are good places to profit with volatility.  Trading in the vast majority of standard stocks are not even close to as interesting.

Bitcoin is also open to manipulation, sure. But the manipulation is open to every one   For many established securities and traditional investments only the banks and other big players can manipulate it.  Bitcoin offers manipulation to the masses haha .

Besides, the chaos is fun.

I've bought bitcoin as low as $10 a coin and sold as high as a $1000. And all in just a very few years. That's amazing. That's chaos, but I like it.

And after I have, on many occasions, made a successful trade for 10% more coins in the space of week (or even a day) it just makes me laugh to consider most people in North America invest in vehicles that pay them 5% a YEAR. Like what a joke, 5% a year is just around the level of inflation.

The risk is greater, the potential for loss or reward is greater. I'd take this any day over a typical mutual fund.

In short, bring on the chaos. It's really quite something. It's as interesting because we are still very much in the early stages; the wild west.  

[sgbett]

I think if people had taken the time to think about back then, the most likely conclusion that they could come to is that following a massive run up, there has to be a massive sell off.

However the probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made trying to trade it vs the risk of being caught out means the smart thing to do is just hold, don't fear the paper loss, and gradually accumulate within your means (don't spend what you can't afford to lose).

I think if people take the time to think about it now the most likely conclusion is that following a long bear market there is probably going to be a massive run up.

The probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made holding and skimming off vs the risk of selling early and being caught out means the smart thing to do is to just hold, and gradually sell off a small percentage at regular intervals.

This has always been the case. Boring as hell, and all the kids make fun of you because "YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" but pit pat piffy wing wong wang always loses in the end.