That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake.

[futureofbitcoin]

you realize that if the market was predictable, that would mean its fake... right?

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[AliceWonderMiscreations]

Or it's as true as can possibly be as there are no limits on how people can act.

Exactly. I don't do a lot of stock trading but it seems the managed markets will freeze trading on a stock when it starts to plummet to quickly but there is no such manipulation of bitcoin.

[dragonseer]

The exchanges aren't fake.

The same market mechanics observed with stocks or forex avail to BTC on a relatively liquid exchange like BFX.

As with the stock market, the bitcoin market requires expensive infrastructure.  Someone has to pay for it.

There is a stochastic component to the price behavior, and it is such that it maximizes revenue extraction to keep the infrastructure going.

If you understand how market structure develops, you can avoid being the steady funder of the infrastructure, and let other unwary traders be the beast of burden.

Actually, the event which caused me to start this thread, was far worse than the Bitfinex bot conspiring to push the market up to trigger my stop (which proves to me that much of the volume on these exchanges is padding, otherwise it would have been far too expensive to run market up for paltry little handful of BTC from my own trade, and probably just a few other traders with same idea..may as well post this again:




When I started this thread. Some whale had just ramped Bitstamp, up to a point where a whole bunch of Stop Buy orders were placed, just above the 'breakout' point. BTC on Stamp spiked from $325 up to $355 in a matter of a few minutes. The other exchanges followed but the whale on Stamp then dumped it right back down and killed the move. What this basically is, is some Stamp whale, who has both access to the order book, and front running privileges to the exchange, to ensure that his sell orders are the ones that get filled first when he ramps, and triggers the Stop Buys that he can see all placed up above the $345 level.

This is corrupt at the very least, and whilst these are unregulated exchanges, I would imagine that their is some Anti Fraud law that would also make this illegal, just as the Finex bot swiping any customers Stop Orders within easy touching distance of spot in order to fund the super expensive exchange infrastructure, will also be illegal.

I don't doubt what you said about Bitstamp, maybe this is why Gemini has low volume? They jumped through all the hoops to get regulated, and whales who can't cheat the system have little incentive to trade there?

[Amph]

you realize that if the market was predictable, that would mean its fake... right?

in fact on the forex market, the pairs are alot more predictable, i bet there is a greater manipulation there than in bitcoin

they basically play everytime in the same range, with some time few shift on the up or down range, i've seen it immediately, in the few weeks that i traded with bitcoin on a broker

[~Bitcoin~]

If the market move can be predictable than we can say it as a fake movement and trading volume. But if it is unpredicatable like right now we have to say market is true. So you are wrong LOL

[Malsetid]

you realize that if the market was predictable, that would mean its fake... right?

I think the stock market is also not predictable. The price volatility is very big recently. Shall we call that fake market?

[8up]

No market is fake. It's just big whales, white sharks small fishes and dolphins in the same pool.

Manipulation (what you call fake) is part of a free market. It is what constitues a 'free' market. The only difference between all these participants is access to intelligence (information) and the capabilities of providing (mis-)information to other market participants.

If you understand these few things, you also will understand, why Bitcoin and the blockchain were described by The Economist as a 'truth machine' - and why this may become enormously important in the future.

[valta4065]

I don't even understand what you mean by "fake"

People buy and others sell. That's the definition of a market. That would be fake if you wouldn't receive anything you buy/sell, but you do.

It's not because you lost lots of money that it becomes "fake".

[romero121]

Now whats going on is the real situation of the bitcoin. If the bitcoin price is in the rising chart we won't indicate the market is fake.
Just the market is just because of few countries trade or investment. The entire world countries have the part in which few will be
experiencing growth even this time. some countries might be losing currency value as like our bitcoin.

[Snorek]

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

This is just a few players with the power to defy all time learned principles of market mechanics, in order to deprive the maximum of unsuspecting punters of their USD and Bitcoins, but mostly USD.

This market is fucked.

It is not that it is unpredictable, it just reacts to everything. That is why it is hard to predict sometimes, you need to read movement behind the curtain.
Bitcoin market is sensitive to information that we have a little access to, for example you need to be reading Chinese's news sites and be familiar with global economic trends.
 

[coldbound]

Everyday nearly 2 million BTC is traded on Huobi which equals to 740 million dollars with current BTC price.

740 million dollars. On a single exchange. In a single day. I don't know how can you guys who say it's not fake can explain this but it doesn't look real at all to me.

[Cusdonard]

Everyday nearly 2 million BTC is traded on Huobi which equals to 740 million dollars with current BTC price.

740 million dollars. On a single exchange. In a single day. I don't know how can you guys who say it's not fake can explain this but it doesn't look real at all to me.

There is no need to argue about it. Everybody on the Earth knows that is the fake. If Huobi charges 0.1% fee, the volume is be a few thousands.

[MatTheCat]

Everyday nearly 2 million BTC is traded on Huobi which equals to 740 million dollars with current BTC price.

740 million dollars. On a single exchange. In a single day. I don't know how can you guys who say it's not fake can explain this but it doesn't look real at all to me.

There is no need to argue about it. Everybody on the Earth knows that is the fake. If Huobi charges 0.1% fee, the volume is be a few thousands.

95% of Huobi' volume, you and I can't even touch...it happens in another dimension....500 BTC bids and trade executions just flash up out of nowhere and then vanish just as quick.

I would dare a 'real' trader of BTC to take a 500 Market Buy or Sell order to Huobi, and just see how deep the liquiditiy there really is.

[valta4065]

Everyday nearly 2 million BTC is traded on Huobi which equals to 740 million dollars with current BTC price.

740 million dollars. On a single exchange. In a single day. I don't know how can you guys who say it's not fake can explain this but it doesn't look real at all to me.

There is no need to argue about it. Everybody on the Earth knows that is the fake. If Huobi charges 0.1% fee, the volume is be a few thousands.

95% of Huobi' volume, you and I can't even touch...it happens in another dimension....500 BTC bids and trade executions just flash up out of nowhere and then vanish just as quick.

I would dare a 'real' trader of BTC to take a 500 Market Buy or Sell order to Huobi, and just see how deep the liquiditiy there really is.

Yeah but it's different saying that Huobi is faked (such as everything from China) and that the whole btc market is fake ^^

[MatTheCat]

Yeah but it's different saying that Huobi is faked (such as everything from China) and that the whole btc market is fake ^^

But the Chinese drive BTC.

When Huobi moves, the rest of the market jumps right into line behind it. The exception to this rule is the cashout dump. That is when the Chinese BTC Cowboys, move thier BTC from China, to USD exchange, and dump into the market.

The recent pump n dumps were an exception however. Both pump, and then the dump, were triggered by enormous volume coming in right out of the blue on Bitfinex, with the rest of the markets following.

So on this occasion, it would be both fair and accurate to say that the whole BTC market was moved by an entity operating through Bitfinex, who has knowledge of their Order books, and has front running access to their trading API......

......so how is that not 'fake'?

(except millions of USD worth of real Short Positions where liquidated on rise, and millions of USD of real Long Positions were liquidated on the way back down to beneath the very base for the whole pump)

[n2004al]

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

This is just a few players with the power to defy all time learned principles of market mechanics, in order to deprive the maximum of unsuspecting punters of their USD and Bitcoins, but mostly USD.

This market is fucked.

Wow. I am not an expert of such kind of market but this post make me feel like you have lost all your wealth ultimately in this market and want to destroy not only it but all the world. Maybe you will have all the rights of this world to be so if someone have stolen you that but seems like you have played yourself that what you have lost. And if so, I think that, a little, the guilty is even you.    Anyhow, according to my totally inexpert opinion, cannot be possible that all the usd-bitcoin market be manipulable by a bunch of people. Cannot be so few people so powerful. Or even that cannot be possible that all that few bunch of people who you pretend that manipulate this market make such deal together and realize such kind of entrepreneurship. Seems a little futuristic. But it is not strange that me have wrong. Have not the needed knowledge about it and cannot be credible with my words. Mine is only a reasoning from out of the environment. And as such a amateur one.

[BruceLee007]

What did you say?IS NOT A FAKE. I agree with you is not predictable , but not that bad what it seems.

[STT]

Everyday nearly 2 million BTC is traded on Huobi which equals to 740 million dollars with current BTC price.

740 million dollars. On a single exchange. In a single day. I don't know how can you guys who say it's not fake can explain this but it doesn't look real at all to me.

Well size aint everything.  Throwing virtual figures around the confines of an exchange computer like a squash court is not the best demo.    Maybe if you want to compare it to flash trading computers done on NYSE it might make sense, they own each Company stock maybe $100,000 or more for less then half a second, then they sell it.  Then they buy it again 1000th of a cent cheaper, then sell it again.    Does this convince me of that companies strength that day, no doesnt really mean anything except noise

[takingthis4]

Why you think like that I dont agree with you market is great thing and Bitcoin is always was unpredictable

[dothebeats]

Why you think like that I dont agree with you market is great thing and Bitcoin is always was unpredictable

Well, to each, his own. The market is manipulated by whales lol. Unpredictable? For us minnows swimming around without going deeper, yes. But for whales who usually controls the waves and the tides with their movements, the bitcoin market is nothing but a playground for them to get even fatter.