That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake.

[1Referee]

I think if people had taken the time to think about back then, the most likely conclusion that they could come to is that following a massive run up, there has to be a massive sell off.

However the probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made trying to trade it vs the risk of being caught out means the smart thing to do is just hold, don't fear the paper loss, and gradually accumulate within your means (don't spend what you can't afford to lose).

I think if people take the time to think about it now the most likely conclusion is that following a long bear market there is probably going to be a massive run up.

The probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made holding and skimming off vs the risk of selling early and being caught out means the smart thing to do is to just hold, and gradually sell off a small percentage at regular intervals.

This has always been the case. Boring as hell, and all the kids make fun of you because "YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" but pit pat piffy wing wong wang always loses in the end.

Let people think and say whatever they want. People who really appreciate Bitcoin and its future potential will hold their coins no matter what. A lot people say;  'Holding Bitcoin is boring because it barely gives you a return'

These kind of people are just stupid. How can you expect Bitcoin to give you a 50%-100% return on your investment in just 2 weeks..... They are chasing some quick profits, but they don't realize that they can have huge profits if they hold their coins for the very long term. If Bitcoin really takes off, and true believers do think it will, then current prices are nothing more than a joke.

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[eizh]

Bitcoin is also open to manipulation, sure. But the manipulation is open to every one   For many established securities and traditional investments only the banks and other big players can manipulate it.  Bitcoin offers manipulation to the masses haha .

Bitcoin is extremely illiquid compared to any respectable stock, but it's still too liquid for 99% of holders to move the price without mass action. Manipulation is only accessible to a small number.

[sgbett]

I think if people had taken the time to think about back then, the most likely conclusion that they could come to is that following a massive run up, there has to be a massive sell off.

However the probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made trying to trade it vs the risk of being caught out means the smart thing to do is just hold, don't fear the paper loss, and gradually accumulate within your means (don't spend what you can't afford to lose).

I think if people take the time to think about it now the most likely conclusion is that following a long bear market there is probably going to be a massive run up.

The probability of that happening coupled with the potential profit that could be made holding and skimming off vs the risk of selling early and being caught out means the smart thing to do is to just hold, and gradually sell off a small percentage at regular intervals.

This has always been the case. Boring as hell, and all the kids make fun of you because "YOU SHOULD HAVE SOLD" but pit pat piffy wing wong wang always loses in the end.

Let people think and say whatever they want. People who really appreciate Bitcoin and its future potential will hold their coins no matter what. A lot people say;  'Holding Bitcoin is boring because it barely gives you a return'

These kind of people are just stupid. How can you expect Bitcoin to give you a 50%-100% return on your investment in just 2 weeks..... They are chasing some quick profits, but they don't realize that they can have huge profits if they hold their coins for the very long term. If Bitcoin really takes off, and true believers do think it will, then current prices are nothing more than a joke.

Exactly. If it doesn't? then the worst case scenario is you only lost the principal that you should already have mentally written off.

[Nunu]

Nothing in this world is predictable.

No matter how many positive or negative reviews there are, no one can predict the future so it is with Bitcoin. All are just chances. 

[Malsetid]

In short term, the price is unpredictable. In long term, the price will go up. Just do not buy at the top of every pump.

[MaxTax]

It's a chance you take with any investments that you make. Sometimes you win some and sometimes you lose some.

Going from $200 to $500 is a huge, I never expected it to stay at $500. $300 is a reasonable growth for this year.

[whizz94]

but I bet you that nothing even close to the bullshit we see in Bitcoin happens on Forex...currency markets are just far too huge.

Japanese Yen since 1992 ?
Argentine Peso ?
Asian currency crisis of the late 1990's ?
Russian RBL this year ?
Greek-bond monkeybusiness since 2010 ?

Now MatTheCat, how much did you bet and from where may I collect a truckload of bitcoins or gold ? (I'll take either thank-you)

[Exoskeleton]

Once the long term holders, and there are plenty, get a hold of enough coins its only going up. This will take a while yet. The halving will help and the next one in 4 1/2 years is the big one. Until then the holders will keep buying and eventually nobody will sell below $500, then $1,000. I'd give it 5-10 years till $1,000 is the floor, but once this happens its never going below that ever again. From there it will go to a $2,000-$5,000 floor much faster. I wouldn't count on that for at least 10 more years.

There are some serious long term holders and the supply is reasonably limited, so one day nobody will be selling below a certain price anymore. Right now that price is $200. I can say for sure that nobody will ever sell coins below $200 again, and if they do they will get bought up over $200 within days. This will take quite some time, but one day the hoarders will own the market.

[LMGTFY]

Going from $200 to $500 is a huge, I never expected it to stay at $500. $300 is a reasonable growth for this year.

Yeah, if you consider doping from $390 to $321 (YTD) "growth."

No. You know there's this new thing the kids are doing, called "fact checking"? Finex closed just above 320 on 31 December, ditto for Stamp.

[poploman]

I don't think it's possible to manipulate a market of this size without a capital of millions of dollars unlike minor alternative cryptocurrencies, and even if there was a player this big in BTC it would be a risk to them as well as they wouldn't be sure of the reaction of the market to their pump.

[98problems]

i dont think that the whole market is fake i must admit that sometimes the price might be affected by whales and that the price is unpredictable but its ok for me

[HarryKPeters]

i dont think that the whole market is fake i must admit that sometimes the price might be affected by whales and that the price is unpredictable but its ok for me

The market isn't fake. Go out on an exchange and buy bitcoin with real dollars...

That being said, the market is manipulated by some very big whales. Their attention could be; attention; profit or something else.

In a few years when there are more supporters, this game will be over.

[Altynbekova]

Manipulation is big with bitcoin, i can't disagree on that. But let's be fair it's in most of the markets where whales are present. Perhaps it is jealousy since we are no whales and can't do anyting then to speculate..

[mitkala]

i dont think that the whole market is fake i must admit that sometimes the price might be affected by whales and that the price is unpredictable but its ok for me

Like stock market, the price will go up or down all the time. When there is good news, the price might go down. It is unpredictable.

[Cusdonard]

It's a chance you take with any investments that you make. Sometimes you win some and sometimes you lose some.

Going from $200 to $500 is a huge, I never expected it to stay at $500. $300 is a reasonable growth for this year.

If the price can stay above $350 by the end of the year, it is excellent. In the meanwhile, the price volatility should also stay low.

[Malsetid]

Bitcoin is also open to manipulation, sure. But the manipulation is open to every one   For many established securities and traditional investments only the banks and other big players can manipulate it.  Bitcoin offers manipulation to the masses haha .

Bitcoin is extremely illiquid compared to any respectable stock, but it's still too liquid for 99% of holders to move the price without mass action. Manipulation is only accessible to a small number.

When the price of bitcoin increase to $10,000, the price will be more stable. It is difficult for whales to move the price.

[Newcoins2020]

Bitcoin is as real as any market out there.
The bitcoin market is unpredictable, like you said but that doesn't mean that it's fake at all.
Know what you get yourself into before stepping foot in it.

[Cusdonard]

Bitcoin is as real as any market out there.
The bitcoin market is unpredictable, like you said but that doesn't mean that it's fake at all.
Know what you get yourself into before stepping foot in it.

For the exchanges which charge fees, the volume is probably real. So the 0% fee exchanges, the volume is fake.

[oblomov]

The exchanges aren't fake.

The same market mechanics observed with stocks or forex avail to BTC on a relatively liquid exchange like BFX.

As with the stock market, the bitcoin market requires expensive infrastructure.  Someone has to pay for it.

There is a stochastic component to the price behavior, and it is such that it maximizes revenue extraction to keep the infrastructure going.

If you understand how market structure develops, you can avoid being the steady funder of the infrastructure, and let other unwary traders be the beast of burden.

 
 

[MatTheCat]

The exchanges aren't fake.

The same market mechanics observed with stocks or forex avail to BTC on a relatively liquid exchange like BFX.

As with the stock market, the bitcoin market requires expensive infrastructure.  Someone has to pay for it.

There is a stochastic component to the price behavior, and it is such that it maximizes revenue extraction to keep the infrastructure going.

If you understand how market structure develops, you can avoid being the steady funder of the infrastructure, and let other unwary traders be the beast of burden.

Actually, the event which caused me to start this thread, was far worse than the Bitfinex bot conspiring to push the market up to trigger my stop (which proves to me that much of the volume on these exchanges is padding, otherwise it would have been far too expensive to run market up for paltry little handful of BTC from my own trade, and probably just a few other traders with same idea..may as well post this again:




When I started this thread. Some whale had just ramped Bitstamp, up to a point where a whole bunch of Stop Buy orders were placed, just above the 'breakout' point. BTC on Stamp spiked from $325 up to $355 in a matter of a few minutes. The other exchanges followed but the whale on Stamp then dumped it right back down and killed the move. What this basically is, is some Stamp whale, who has both access to the order book, and front running privileges to the exchange, to ensure that his sell orders are the ones that get filled first when he ramps, and triggers the Stop Buys that he can see all placed up above the $345 level.

This is corrupt at the very least, and whilst these are unregulated exchanges, I would imagine that their is some Anti Fraud law that would also make this illegal, just as the Finex bot swiping any customers Stop Orders within easy touching distance of spot in order to fund the super expensive exchange infrastructure, will also be illegal.