Diff thread Nov 23 to Dec 7 Set up stage- Picks CLOSED!

[philipma1957]

Another 10% to get us around 80 B difficulty would not be unusual by any means, hardware is getting pushed out and set up.  But All these new batches of antminers are still yet to be received, I think about 3 batches are in the works still.  So im not sure how much addition hash this will equal, big jumps could be expected once all that get shipped out.

Well the builders have decided to open the floodgates.  So I see  some big jumps coming.  Looks like d57heinz   has pegged the jump  ahead of all of us.

Well time to watch is now.

[UfoRia]

Well the builders have decided to open the floodgates.  So I see  some big jumps coming.  Looks like d57heinz   has pegged the jump  ahead of all of us.

Well time to watch is now.

We also have the $400 wall to crash through.....


Ufo

[notlist3d]

Another 10% to get us around 80 B difficulty would not be unusual by any means, hardware is getting pushed out and set up.  But All these new batches of antminers are still yet to be received, I think about 3 batches are in the works still.  So im not sure how much addition hash this will equal, big jumps could be expected once all that get shipped out.

Well the builders have decided to open the floodgates.  So I see  some big jumps coming.  Looks like d57heinz   has pegged the jump  ahead of all of us.

Well time to watch is now.

We also have not heard from some big sales.  Mr. Lee claimed to buy 3PH of avalon 6's i think it was - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934581.0 .

No announcement on his cloud mining going up yet I don't think.  So there could be lot's of Avalon's going out to.  Just like BlockC should have 10 MW center.... between just Avalon and Bitmain were talking about a ton of possible gear.

[UfoRia]

I ponder if the bottom resistance collapses what will happen....


Ufo

edit: I am dropping some longs on four exchanges. If it drops $5 I win.

[notlist3d]

Morning Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,638,852,630 (+10.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1774 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    537,546,048 GH/s

So still much higher then we would like to see.  Hopefully we see some downward movement.

[UfoRia]

Morning Bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:    80,638,852,630 (+10.89%)
Adjust time:    After 1774 Blocks, About 11.9 days
Hashrate(?):    537,546,048 GH/s

So still much higher then we would like to see.  Hopefully we see some downward movement.

Wow, it's getting worse. I am hopeful a correction is made soon, which I think will happen if we have another 10%+ dif increase. That will be the killing point for a large amount of the old miners that don't have sub 0.05 cent electricity.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,613,277,007 (+12.23%)
Adjust time:   After 1735 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):   541,896,491 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes
Updated:   16:15 (4.0 minutes ago)

[philipma1957]

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 154 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 6%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5% (I hope)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154  yesterday
14?  today      both new diff          and both a lot better then the last four days from the  last diff

[notlist3d]

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 151 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 5%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5%

I like 5 percent much better then 12.  Seems bitwisdom really is highly effected by last, which is scary to look at.

I had some family things today and will have some tomorrow.  I'm hoping slows down for the holiday, but with a lot of the gear staying in China I have a feeling they will keep pumping out and hooking up Avalon 6, and Bitmain S7's and not observe Thanksgiving.

[notlist3d]

Possible new speculation on miner:

The kangding data center will perform maintenance on 26th Nov(today), will last for 12 hours. all s5 miner is in this data center and will be effected.
BTW, I will release new s7 miner soon, it will be a future option, the miner will be online around 1th Feb.

If I read that right possible new s7 variant?  He has been good before on speculation of future miners.

[philipma1957]

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 154 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 6%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5% (I hope)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154  yesterday
14?  today      both new diff          and both a lot better then the last four days from the  last diff

154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    this is realtime number while


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+12.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,700,303,122 (+12.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1704 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):   539,304,964 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (1.5 minutes ago)


and to completely  make things more interesting look at price on coin base back up to  332 it was 318 in the morning.

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    81,616,641,037 (+12.23%)
Adjust time:    After 1693 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    541,949,430 GH/s

wtf! the graph doesn't look that bad but the numbers....

Conservative: 6.1%
normal 8.1%
Continuous: 14.1 %
http://nextdifficulty.com/

crap 

[skuser]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    81,616,641,037 (+12.23%)
Adjust time:    After 1693 Blocks, About 11.1 days
Hashrate(?):    541,949,430 GH/s

wtf! the graph doesn't look that bad but the numbers....

Conservative: 6.1%
normal 8.1%
Continuous: 14.1 %
http://nextdifficulty.com/

crap  

I am considering taking that continous version of diff change down because it's scaring people too much and is as wrong as bitcoinwisdom's early estimates.
Conservative says this is difficulty change that should happen NOW if we took mining speed for last 2016 blocks (of course recalculated with valid difficulty) so it always starts at 0 after each difficulty change.
Continous says lets project the hashrate speed change of last 1500+ blocks to blocks which should be mined this period (considering also how many blocks are yet to be mined) so it is very agressive and has been useful in 2014.
'Normal' is just weighted average of those 2 numbers where conservative has currently more weight.

The best solution would be disable calculations for first x blocks because it is really impossible to estimate anything upon that, but people love numbers

[RichBC]

I am considering taking that continous version of diff change down because it's scaring people too much and is as wrong as bitcoinwisdom's early estimates.
Conservative says this is difficulty change that should happen NOW if we took mining speed for last 2016 blocks (of course recalculated with valid difficulty) so it always starts at 0 after each difficulty change.
Continous says lets project the hashrate speed change of last 1500+ blocks to blocks which should be mined this period (considering also how many blocks are yet to be mined) so it is very agressive and has been useful in 2014.
'Normal' is just weighted average of those 2 numbers where conservative has currently more weight.

The best solution would be disable calculations for first x blocks because it is really impossible to estimate anything upon that, but people love numbers

I think that it's great to have a number of different projections, the key for me is having a good description of how each of the projections is calculated so that you can then make up your own mind which one to use.

Rich

[notlist3d]

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 154 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 6%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5% (I hope)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154  yesterday
14?  today      both new diff          and both a lot better then the last four days from the  last diff

154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    this is realtime number while


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+12.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,700,303,122 (+12.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1704 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):   539,304,964 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (1.5 minutes ago)


and to completely  make things more interesting look at price on coin base back up to  332 it was 318 in the morning.

Price is still heading up which is good.  Currently around $341.61 on coinbase.   So price is moving with difficulty some it seems.

As long as price rises with nasty changes guess we will not be hurting as bad.  Will be interesting to see what price does in relation to difficulty change over coming weeks.

[philipma1957]

the numbers are too high but if people keep adding gear they will become true.

yesterday we made about 154 blocks  today we made 141 with an hour to go.  so in two days  we will be at 302 vs 288 or  only 6%.

It is a USA holiday tomorrow my we only do 140 blocks.


I am thinking after 3 days say 10pm New York East coast time on Thurs we are about 4 or 5% (I hope)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154  yesterday
14?  today      both new diff          and both a lot better then the last four days from the  last diff

154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    this is realtime number while


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (+12.34%)


Bitcoin Difficulty:   72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty:   81,700,303,122 (+12.34%)
Adjust time:   After 1704 Blocks, About 11.2 days
Hashrate(?):   539,304,964 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.3 minutes
6 blocks: 56.6 minutes
Updated:   23:5 (1.5 minutes ago)


and to completely  make things more interesting look at price on coin base back up to  332 it was 318 in the morning.

Price is still heading up which is good.  Currently around $341.61 on coinbase.   So price is moving with difficulty some it seems.

As long as price rises with nasty changes guess we will not be hurting as bad.  Will be interesting to see what price does in relation to difficulty change over coming weeks.

Big price move 357 on coinbase!  Oh happy T-day to those that celebrate it.

[notlist3d]

Price is still heading up which is good.  Currently around $341.61 on coinbase.   So price is moving with difficulty some it seems.

As long as price rises with nasty changes guess we will not be hurting as bad.  Will be interesting to see what price does in relation to difficulty change over coming weeks.

Big price move 357 on coinbase!  Oh happy T-day to those that celebrate it.

Looks like we lost a little ground currently: 344.69.  Hopefully we can get over 350 again today.  If we do that I would consider it a win.

Bitwisdom still has scary high numbers.  I hope it's wrong by a decent amount.

[Tmdz]

By the numbers it looks like were up about 8% so a 10% diff increase sounds pretty possible at this point AND if btc price can hold at $350 or better 10% or more is nearly guaranteed. So 350 price would be like a 8% gain and then difficulty takes it away, at least it dampens the effect some.

[adaseb]

Today was an awful day.

175 Blocks found so +21.52

[EternalWingsofGod]

Today was an awful day.

175 Blocks found so +21.52

That is a strong discovery range, at present the predicted is still +14 for now, but there was a bit of price appreciation today before BBF so maybe difficulty will move up, I'll hold an opinion on that until Friday sales are processed by merchants though.

Bitcoin Difficulty: 72,722,780,643
Estimated Next Difficulty: 82,828,549,627 (+13.90%) 
Adjust time: After 1539 Blocks, About 9.9 days 
Hashrate(?): 568,888,961 GH/s

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts


169
178
170
162  really bad 4 days but all last diff


154
152   so 306 vs 288 =  +6.25%    
174    480 vs     432 = +11.11% this is realtime number while

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (+14.12%)     Is a future predication


Now we had price go wacky today at:

 midnight  332 usd
7:30 am   368 usd
11:30 pm 349 usd

the 332 to 349 is 5% price  but 332 to 368 was 11%   if we can start to get big price swings up from now until the ½ ing  we are going to have a lot of fun.  With buying and selling coins with diff jumps and the like.  So for now I will track my coins and wait for 390 to sell some.