Wilhelm the mod
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December 04, 2015, 09:27:11 AM |
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user: Wilhelm
code: R8 Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC
My prediction 1.915.000.000
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somuchee
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December 04, 2015, 09:47:08 AM |
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Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8
Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC. Closest 3 wins. Minimum Rollin level 3 to enter. Prediction closes on 20th December 2015, 12:00 UTC Special : Level 6 players get to make 2 predictions and level 9 - 3 predictions. Prizes : 200 mBTC. #1 100 mBTC; #2 60 mBTC; #3 40 mBTC. And a 5 mBTC for the craziest prediction.
so which means Rollin users Level 6~8 user get 2 predictions ? Level 9~above user get 3 predictions ? am i right ?
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skierchewing
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December 04, 2015, 10:56:33 AM |
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New contests. R9 Bet ID contest. Running Rrequirements: 1. Have ""1337"" in the last 2-5 places of the Bet ID 2. The last digit should match your bet amount (rounded down; 0 for >10 mBTC). There will be 1 winner for each digit, the prize is 3 times the wagered amount (rounded down, max. 30 mBTC). 10 prizes, being 3 times the wagered amount that hits the right bet number (max.30, rounded down). Prizes: 3 to 30 mBTC * 10 winners = 165 to 183 mBTC
Tip : There may be more than that meets the eye.
Hello ndnhc... hmm obvious thas decision is yours, but i would like to alert you about this contest R9... it's a little strange... first point... - It'll take years let's check one single person playing... randomnumber 1337x, so you have 1 chance every 100.000 bets... we have two analysis... 1 - 4500 bets in 1 min... 2 - all bets from other users are less than 1 mbtc so... for every 1 chance, you need to wait 100000/4500 = 22,22 min using autoroll you get in average 1 bet each 120 total rolls... so you have 1/120 chance to get the number you want... so you need in average 22,22*120 = 2666,4 min/60 = 44,4h it mean... if 1 guy playing alone trying to get it, he will take 2 days to hit ONE of this 10..., and the time needed to finish it (all 10) is 2*10 = 20days / 44,4*10 = 444h (1 people playing) if the guy play 24h without stop... let's consider a guy only play 3 hour per day actively... so it take 44/3 = 15 days / 444/3 = 148 days lol... if you intention is getting this event over in arround 4 days... you'll need 37 people trying it at least 3h per day second point... - No worth the work.. 1 - Need attention and time... 2 - let's check 10 mbtc wager to 30 mbtc win rate Best possibility as you playing in autoroll, basicaly you'll get 1/120 to hit it... so 120 bets with 1% house edge... so you lose 12 mbtc, your profit is 18 mbtc the question is.. spend 15 days to earn 18 mbtc at best possibility... lol Just a alert, hope you can understand!
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LoyceV
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 3444
Merit: 17422
Thick-Skinned Gang Leader and Golden Feather 2021
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December 04, 2015, 11:31:55 AM |
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first point... - It'll take years
let's check one single person playing... randomnumber1337x, so you have 1 chance every 100.000 bets...
we have two analysis... 1 - 4500 bets in 1 min... 2 - all bets from other users are less than 1 mbtc
so... for every 1 chance, you need to wait 100000/4500 = 22,22 min using autoroll you get in average 1 bet each 120 total rolls... so you have 1/120 chance to get the number you want... so you need in average 22,22*120 = 2666,4 min/60 = 44,4h
it mean... if 1 guy playing alone trying to get it, he will take 2 days to hit ONE of this 10..., and the time needed to finish it (all 10) is 2*10 = 20days / 44,4*10 = 444h (1 people playing) if the guy play 24h without stop... I made up this contest, so I'd like to respond to this. First: I like your analysis! But it's a bit off.... Higher bets are faster than 1 satoshi bets. But obviously this contest is not designed to win by bot. It's designed to manually click at exactly the right time. I think I can hit it within 50 clicks, I may give it a shot later. You actually have 10 chances every 100,000 bets, it's just at varying wagered amounts, but they're so close together you can at best hit one of them. 1 - Need attention and time... This is indeed intentional. as you playing in autoroll, basicaly you'll get 1/120 to hit it... so 120 bets with 1% house edge... so you lose 12 mbtc, your profit is 18 mbtc the question is.. spend 15 days to earn 18 mbtc at best possibility... lol My autorolls yesterday: That is 83, 60 and 82 in between. 75 on average. A bit better chance than 1/120. Just a alert, hope you can understand!
Some are easy, some are harder. This one is the latter
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skierchewing
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December 04, 2015, 11:52:34 AM |
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I made up this contest, so I'd like to respond to this. First: I like your analysis! But it's a bit off.... Higher bets are faster than 1 satoshi bets. But obviously this contest is not designed to win by bot. It's designed to manually click at exactly the right time. I think I can hit it within 50 clicks, I may give it a shot later.
lol, the 120 bets are using much more than 1mbtc (i was playing and tested, on really tt depends on how many ppl are playing/maybe distance ping delay... but even if you can have a lower by the first option, the total roll per min will be lower than 4500 and you'll have to wait more to reach the next 100,000... it's all relative) That situation i gave, is the best ever... the problem in using auto roll, is that if you bet for exemple 3 rolls for every try to hit it... you'll wager more then you going to profit with the contest... it'll become a negative EV... ex: random113251 random113371 random113491, your target is random113370... in this case you have more 2 trash bet random113251 and random113391 your wager will be 36mbtc for 120 bets (including the 2 trash) and you'll win 30mbtc = -6mbtc profit You actually have 10 chances every 100,000 bets, it's just at varying wagered amounts, but they're so close together you can at best hit one of them.
Yes and no, you have 10 chance, but you'll need to choose only 1 bet, for 1 bet number per time... it's a 1-1, not 1-10... the rules say it... you need to hit right the bet wager with the bet id. 1 - Need attention and time... This is indeed intentional. not cool to check it all the time and manual bet it... believe, it's boring... i tried for some hours, on really i already gave up from this. My autorolls yesterday: That is 83, 60 and 82 in between. 75 on average. A bit better chance than 1/120. As i said before, depends, number of people playing etc..., / maybe distance lag delay... but not because 1mbtc because i play autoroll more than this value Some are easy, some are harder. This one is the latter The problem isn't be harder, the problem it'll never be completed... believe me
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skierchewing
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December 04, 2015, 12:12:34 PM |
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The point is..., these contests are cool because they give +EV and funny, but that don't mean you going to profit... in my case i'm on -15mbtc atm, (counting with all contest prizes + chat games(no risk) etc) other users are in negative profit too..., but let's say... in average the higher part will be on positive profit
also if you analyze it... we have ppl playing at this
Shadew-MCoins-somuchee-Loyce-LiQuid-madcoin-klutzbelgian-llllllll-IAmTriggerX-skierchewing-sweetswoebegone-fumblingperch-kshyzer-louise, 14 active players, and big part are playing with high wagerer... no one will kill himself... like spend alot of days to wager 1.6667mbtc to win 5mbtc (3,3 mbtc profit - best rate for 1mbtc play), and to have this profit, the only possible is if you use manual bet, if you use auto-roll your wager is diferent , profit can be smaller to negative status (i'm telling about math analyze... not include lucky and rare situations)
even if this 14 players play together, it'll take arround 10 days, playing 3hour per day (non-stop), without loosing one chance to bet on 1337, making manual bet/ need to check all time when the bet coming close... to profit in some cases... 3 mbtc lol, 4 mbtc... to 20 mbtc..
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no-life
Member
Offline
Activity: 116
Merit: 10
Poor guy next door.
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December 04, 2015, 12:30:00 PM |
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user:93427489756583 code:XMAS
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madc0in
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December 04, 2015, 12:48:16 PM |
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user: madcoin code: R8 Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC My prediction : - 1.913.371.337 - 2.097.897.000
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LiQuidx
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December 04, 2015, 01:10:26 PM |
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Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8 My prediction: 1.867.780.540 Good luck all
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newinbtc
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1190
Merit: 1001
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December 04, 2015, 03:32:31 PM Last edit: December 04, 2015, 03:49:58 PM by newinbtc |
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Bet ID contest. Code : R9 https://rollin.io/dice/history/1650013775just HIT 1377 IN last 5 Digit username - Newinbtc
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skierchewing
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December 04, 2015, 04:23:34 PM |
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lol it's 1337... and u must hit 13371 with this bet wager
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rivoke
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 924
Merit: 1006
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December 04, 2015, 05:51:08 PM |
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ndnh (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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December 04, 2015, 05:55:01 PM |
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Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8
Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC. Closest 3 wins. Minimum Rollin level 3 to enter. Prediction closes on 20th December 2015, 12:00 UTC Special : Level 6 players get to make 2 predictions and level 9 - 3 predictions. Prizes : 200 mBTC. #1 100 mBTC; #2 60 mBTC; #3 40 mBTC. And a 5 mBTC for the craziest prediction.
so which means Rollin users Level 6~8 user get 2 predictions ? Level 9~above user get 3 predictions ? am i right ? Yes, you are right. Didn't want to make it too long, that is why I shortened it up. If you are level 3, 4 or 5, you get 1 prediction. If you are level 6, 7, 8 you get 2, and for 9 and up, 3. You can actually use some tactics to play safe. Only one prize per account. Bets should be made before it closes on 20th December. Good luck.
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ndnh (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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December 04, 2015, 06:34:17 PM |
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first point... - It'll take years Considering that any contest that we could think of is being completed in a few hours, that is very desirable. second point... - No worth the work..
Gambling is always -EV. Still for many it is not exactly a waste of time. It is many times more about having fun and enjoying it. (Well, I wouldn't be here otherwise if managing contests were boring stuff ) Just a alert, hope you can understand! We can always change contests, add new ways to win it, remove conditions. Let us see how things go with this. Thanks for the feedback. Sorry for keeping it short, have to log out now. have a nice day ndnhc
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FARxYodakota77
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December 04, 2015, 07:48:50 PM Last edit: December 05, 2015, 08:10:38 PM by FARxYodakota77 |
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Predict the rolling number: User:SoWhat 1,950,000,000
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ndnh (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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December 05, 2015, 06:03:07 AM |
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Update: Spreadsheet page for details about wins have been split into two for easy viewing. Trivia & Games is the new page, and it will also have details about the predictions made (R8). Please note to add your username to the post. And adding the contest number would reduce the chances of the entry being accidentally skipped since it would show on using the search function on top right of bitcointalk forum. Predict the rolling number: User:SoWhat Going with 72 and 37 sincei am lvl 6
Hi, The contest is on total number of bets as at that date. Example : Entries till now: Loyce 1.854.250.908 IAmTriggerX 1.889.569.800 Wilhelm 1.915.000.000 madcoin 1.913.371.337 madcoin 2.097.897.000 LiQuid 1.867.780.540
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ndnh (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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December 05, 2015, 06:13:17 AM |
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On-thread Trivia!aaand the question for today is: Q. Bob, a player at Rollin has wagered 5313.4931 mBTC. He bets 50 mBTC at Lower than 1 and wins. What is his payout?
Post your answer with your Rollin account for 7 m BTC. Rollin account should be at least level 2 OR the bitcointalk account full member and above. First to answer correctly, to the point wins the prize. Remember, no edits.
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s1ng
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
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December 05, 2015, 06:35:58 AM |
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Profit 4900 mB
kutu_kupret
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ndnh (OP)
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1005
New Decentralized Nuclear Hobbit
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December 05, 2015, 06:47:56 AM |
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Nope. Bounty raised to 10 m BTC.
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retes12345
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December 05, 2015, 06:48:27 AM |
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On-thread Trivia!aaand the question for today is: Q. Bob, a player at Rollin has wagered 5313.4931 mBTC. He bets 50 mBTC at Lower than 1 and wins. What is his payout?
Post your answer with your Rollin account for 7 m BTC. Rollin account should be at least level 2 OR the bitcointalk account full member and above. First to answer correctly, to the point wins the prize. Remember, no edits. 100mb? username:louise
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