[poll] Price

[420]

Remember the wisdom of the crowd

[molecular]

i think halving day will be stable

But will December be stable?

especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.

[molecular]

We are going to the moon guys. The poll results are amazing.

maybe people don't know the future, though.

[molecular]

there is major difference between sentiment and action few ppl seams to get that

The better question to ask would be at what price will you sell your bitcoins lol

I've never understood why people would phrase any question like that, unless it's that they see Bitcoin as a get-rich-quick scheme and have no long term confidence.

Otherwise, you NEVER sell your BTC "at a certain future price." You hold onto them until you need to spend them. Why would there be a certain price you sold everything out at and moved to an inferior holding?

There's no "price" that would make me sell. Only a superior (proven) system to invest in.

well, "price" doesn't have to be in Dollar. I would sell a Bitcoin when prices reaches "1 nice house", for example.

[420]

Not to the moon, just the stratosphere

[julz]

Remember the wisdom of the crowd

Remember the bias of the unrepresentative sample.

[Bitexchange]

My guess is it will reach a stable 30$ some time next year.
Either that or all the way to the moon  

[beckspace]

When/if it reaches those highs again, 30$ will be cut like butter.

[bitboyben]

Personally I'd like to see it hit $100 then we'll price things in centi-BTC cBTC, and GPU miners won't die then.

[420]

Personally I'd like to see it hit $100 then we'll price things in centi-BTC cBTC, and GPU miners won't die then.

wrong wrong

satoshi's

and they will die by january 21

[chriswilmer]

I find mBTC easier to say, and I think re-pricing all online goods in milli-bitcoins is very forward thinking 

[Qoheleth]

and GPU miners won't die then

Read up on difficulty, man. Price and mining profits are independent variables unless people are being irrational.

[ryu-fk]

I'm not sure what to do here, I don't want to see my hard earned bitcoins lose value. I usually don't think about future prices since I usually get rid of my bitcoins quiet quickly but I have quite a few now.

The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .

[notme]

I'm not sure what to do here, I don't want to see my hard earned bitcoins lose value. I usually don't think about future prices since I usually get rid of my bitcoins quiet quickly but I have quite a few now.

The way I see it if there is less bitcoins being mined the price should increase due to lower supply.
on the other hand won't a lot of miners sell all their savings if the reward halves as mining will no longer be profitable enough for them, they might see it as time to pull out of the whole bitcoin thing. So maybe there will be an initial fall in price followed by an increase in January .

That makes no sense to me.  When my income decreases I tighten my belt.  I don't go blow all my savings the next day.  But then again, maybe I take this bitcoin thing too seriously.  However, I would think miners who might make such a move would not be the type to hold many BTC in the first place.

[bitboyben]

There's got to be the odd guy who took out a huge loan to build a big GPU farm and can't switch to ASICs. I'm sure there will be a few people that will have to cut their losses.

[thezerg]

As many of us predicted  months ago, we seem to be in the lead-up to the halving where ask depth is drying up -- people are thinking "why not wait and see what happens?"   

So what will happen? 

Frankly, a lot of the volume on Gox seems to be due to short-term speculative action.  This is just the "fog of war"... but it cannot hide the fact that a much lower volume of long-term activity must be sequestering the 9600 BTC produced each day which is keeping the price stable above 10.  This long term activity is expected given the positive press and growing legitimacy of the currency.  So I believe that the blockchain halving is going to place a small but significant upwards pressure on the price, since there is clearly demand for 9600 a day but only half that many coins produced.

But its very possible that the lack of a pre-halving "breakout" will cause short-term speculators to dump some coins near the halving mark.  However, many of these speculators are going to be the sort that keeps fiat on gox for reinvestment.  So a dump near the halving is just $ that will be poured back into the next breakout. 

TL;DR; the bull breakout after the halving will be a big one...

I'm going to pat myself on the back for predicting the dump.  We'll see if I'm correct about the next bull breakout run!  But actually the dump was less then I expected.  That is interesting... I wonder if people who intended to dump are still playing blockchain chicken?  Seems to me that that game would be over now... that could be a very bullish signal as people who expected blockchain chicken have to get back into the market, or are willing to get in deeper now that that danger is over.

Also something else has occurred to me.  Bitcoin has now moved from what was "officially" a hyper-inflationary currency to one that is merely high inflation (I've heard 12% on these forums but haven't bothered to do the math myself).  12% is in the ballpark of other (still viable) fiat currencies during certain historic periods (I'm thinking USD in the 70s).  This psychological difference will probably have a much greater impact then from 6% to 3% (say), and should calm worries that a temporarily stagnant bitcoin economic growth cycle won't crash the currency.

[kentrolla]

i think halving day will be stable

But will December be stable?

especially end of december when remaining miners need dollars for power bills.

i don't think december will be stable. I only think today will be stable

[nobbynobbynoob]

The "high inflation" of Bitcoin currently has one very important difference from inflation of legacy (fiat) monies. With fiat, the possible money supply is infinite (The Bernank has officially emphasized this point too - beware the FRN!) whereas with BTC we know the supply can't pass 21 million (2,1 quadrillion satoshi). The spot bitcoin inflation rate is falling and will continue to fall, and the market is fully exposed to this fact.

[420]

The "high inflation" of Bitcoin currently has one very important difference from inflation of legacy (fiat) monies. With fiat, the possible money supply is infinite (The Bernank has officially emphasized this point too - beware the FRN!) whereas with BTC we know the supply can't pass 21 million (2,1 quadrillion satoshi). The spot bitcoin inflation rate is falling and will continue to fall, and the market is fully exposed to this fact.

Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply

[nobbynobbynoob]

Inflation by definition is the increase of money supply

Indeed, but bitcoin is a complete other currency and a completely different type of money supply. It's more like gold than cash, so the bitcoin supply increasing by 13% pa is a very different (and less malicious) scenario from a central bank printing up 13% more money every year.