gmiwenht (OP)
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December 04, 2012, 04:28:14 PM Last edit: March 08, 2013, 10:17:41 PM by gmiwenht |
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I bought around 700 BTC at market price and drove the 10 day high to 12.75. I first had to sell BTC to get the money, and by the time I sold and bought, this market experiment cost me around 15 BTC in fees and personal losses. But... psychologically, it obviously had an effect on the market. By popping the 10 day plateau (and the 3 day post-halving uncertainty) I think it injected some short-term confidence in the market. When I wake up this morning I see a 12.93 high. Well, that wasn't me. But obviously it took off. And now we're around 12.85 and I've already covered my losses!
So surely this is a form of sentiment manipulation? I guess we cannot manipulate supply and demand, but we can manipulate emotions which drive them. Emotions are tightly wound around certain symbolic price points, so it would make sense that forcing the price above or below those price points (albeit artificially) could be a catalyst for real movement around those price points.
What do you think about this?
And what do you think would happen if we rally above 13.09?
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BitcoinINV
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December 04, 2012, 04:29:55 PM |
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Think you should post your CSV to prove it ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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gmiwenht (OP)
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December 04, 2012, 04:32:40 PM |
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What's a CSV? Here are the peak transactions from my Mt.Gox history. Feel free to correlate this with the truth. 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.03938522 BTC 672.42384362 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 9.84630509 BTC 672.46322884 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686511345] 9.84630509 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00400000 BTC 662.61692375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 1.00000000 BTC 662.62092375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686466200] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00600000 BTC 661.62092375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 1.50000000 BTC 661.62692375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686394076] 1.50000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00040000 BTC 660.12692375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 0.10000000 BTC 660.12732375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686306405] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00120000 BTC 660.02732375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 0.30000000 BTC 660.02852375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686114763] 0.30000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00032000 BTC 659.72852375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 0.08000000 BTC 659.72884375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686076329] 0.08000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:06 Fee 0.00400000 BTC 659.64884375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:06 In 1.00000000 BTC 659.65284375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594686034419] 1.00000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:05 Fee 0.00040000 BTC 658.65284375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:05 In 0.10000000 BTC 658.65324375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685952342] 0.10000000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:05 Fee 0.11927640 BTC 658.55324375 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:05 In 29.81910000 BTC 658.67252015 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685826248] 29.81910000 BTC at $12.75000 2012/12/03 23:18:05 Fee 0.00404379 BTC 628.85342015 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000 (0.4% fee) 2012/12/03 23:18:05 In 1.01094809 BTC 628.85746394 BTC BTC bought: [tid:1354594685765158] 1.01094809 BTC at $12.75000
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evoorhees
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December 04, 2012, 04:34:36 PM |
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So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs? Don't overestimate your effect on the market ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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foggyb
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December 04, 2012, 04:43:18 PM |
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Hey everyone! 🎉 Dive into the excitement with the Gamble Games Eggdrop game! Not only is it a fun and easy-to-play mobile experience, you can now stake your winnings and accumulate $WinG token, which has a finite supply of 200 million tokens. Sign up now using this exclusive referral link! Start staking, playing, and winning today! 🎲🐣
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robocoin
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December 04, 2012, 04:48:52 PM |
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Well 700 BTC are not enough, but in general if you are the first who kicks off a massiv buy or dump, you'll surely get followers. I think thats not happening too seldom on Mt. Gox. Very risky investment strategy^^
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Spekulatius
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December 04, 2012, 04:57:33 PM |
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Post again when you've got 70000 BTC.
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gmiwenht (OP)
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December 04, 2012, 05:02:05 PM |
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So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs? Don't overestimate your effect on the market ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Well, I started buying at 12.66. So yes, it was the reason it went up to 12.75, and it only took seconds to do so. I'm not claiming anything else about the past 24 hours. But in particular, could the past 12 hours have been a result of this initial jump? I realize that this kind of volume represents a drop in the ocean on Mt.Gox, but is the psychological effect of High/Low price not volume-independent?
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DobZombie
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December 04, 2012, 05:12:26 PM |
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The ask price is now 12.94. You still buyin up? Didn't think so ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif)
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Tip Me if believe BTC1 will hit $1 Million by 2030 1DobZomBiE2gngvy6zDFKY5b76yvDbqRra
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gmiwenht (OP)
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December 04, 2012, 05:16:24 PM |
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The ask price is now 12.94. You still buyin up? Didn't think so ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Obviously not. My point is that maybe breaking a 10-day high provided psychological relief after the post-halving uncertainty, thus opening the floodgates for the subsequent buying volume.
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cedivad
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December 04, 2012, 05:20:17 PM |
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Thanks for the post, i'm now sure i want to wait to invest ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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My anger against what is wrong in the Bitcoin community is productive: Bitcointa.lk - Replace "Bitcointalk.org" with "Bitcointa.lk" in this url to see how this page looks like on a proper forum (Announcement Thread)Hashfast.org - Wiki for screwed customers
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bitcoinbear
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December 04, 2012, 05:26:06 PM |
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The ask price is now 12.94. You still buyin up? Didn't think so ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Obviously not. My point is that maybe breaking a 10-day high provided psychological relief after the post-halving uncertainty, thus opening the floodgates for the subsequent buying volume. A ten day high is nothing for bitcoin. Now, if you could buy up past the all-time high (about 32 usd/btc, less than 3x what it is at now), that would be something to talk about.
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Fjordbit
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December 04, 2012, 08:42:01 PM |
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A ten day high is nothing for bitcoin. Now, if you could buy up past the all-time high (about 32 usd/btc, less than 3x what it is at now), that would be something to talk about.
That would only cost $1,366,236. No big deal ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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oakpacific
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December 05, 2012, 01:51:00 AM |
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Give some credits when credits are due, guys! Otherwise who would be brave enough to start a rally next time? ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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smoothie
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December 05, 2012, 05:09:52 AM |
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███████████████████████████████████████
,╓p@@███████@╗╖, ,p████████████████████N, d█████████████████████████b d██████████████████████████████æ ,████²█████████████████████████████, ,█████ ╙████████████████████╨ █████y ██████ `████████████████` ██████ ║██████ Ñ███████████` ███████ ███████ ╩██████Ñ ███████ ███████ ▐▄ ²██╩ a▌ ███████ ╢██████ ▐▓█▄ ▄█▓▌ ███████ ██████ ▐▓▓▓▓▌, ▄█▓▓▓▌ ██████─ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─ ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩ ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀ ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀` ²²² ███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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Yuhfhrh
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December 05, 2012, 05:17:55 AM |
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Couldn't have said it better myself ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) But this very could have triggered a bot, which triggered a few other bots, which started the rally. Or it could have had no effect at all. Doesn't really matter because we don't have a time machine to compare the results.
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adamstgBit
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December 05, 2012, 06:00:58 AM |
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So even though the price has been drifting higher ever since the WordPress announcement, you seem to think that your 700btc purchase is the reason it went up during the past 24 hrs? Don't overestimate your effect on the market ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif) Don't underestimate the effect a rogue 700BTC market buy. I believe OP 100%!
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JohnGalt
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December 05, 2012, 06:32:03 AM |
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Unless you can prove it wasn't a total coincidence, you really can't claim to have had any effect. A couple of weeks ago, I bought 10,000 LTC and it had no effect on the market at all as far as I can tell -- and LTC is far less liquid than BTC.
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smoothie
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December 05, 2012, 07:18:00 AM |
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This is pure entertainment when people start jumping up and down like little girls because the bitcoin price goes up. Next stop: Sobbing, bitching, whiny, confused stage. "Why did the price fall? ![Cry](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cry.gif) " ... because someone was smart enough to sell high. ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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███████████████████████████████████████
,╓p@@███████@╗╖, ,p████████████████████N, d█████████████████████████b d██████████████████████████████æ ,████²█████████████████████████████, ,█████ ╙████████████████████╨ █████y ██████ `████████████████` ██████ ║██████ Ñ███████████` ███████ ███████ ╩██████Ñ ███████ ███████ ▐▄ ²██╩ a▌ ███████ ╢██████ ▐▓█▄ ▄█▓▌ ███████ ██████ ▐▓▓▓▓▌, ▄█▓▓▓▌ ██████─ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓█,,▄▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▐▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▌ ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓─ ²▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓╩ ▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀ ²▀▀▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▀▀` ²²² ███████████████████████████████████████
| . ★☆ WWW.LEALANA.COM My PGP fingerprint is A764D833. History of Monero development Visualization ★☆ . LEALANA BITCOIN GRIM REAPER SILVER COINS. |
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klaus
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December 05, 2012, 07:24:43 AM |
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@smoothie
+1
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bitmessage:BM-2D9c1oAbkVo96zDhTZ2jV6RXzQ9VG3A6f1 threema:HXUAMT96
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