btt

[creativex]

Considering an Avalon batch 3 order despite the large markup. Thoughts? Unfortunately I don't see a BFL order as a viable alternative even at this late juncture.

Also, I am considering an increase in the price of the remaining IPO shares upon receipt of the company's batch 2 Avalon. Given the diminishing yield current shareholders have experienced while we await our first ASIC hardware I think it's fair to reward those that have held fast. Given the slower than expected network growth over the last few months the yield will be very healthy for new shareholders even at higher prices once our Avalon is hashing. The added value additional Avalon units will bring should ensure that new shareholders also enjoy a generous return.

Cheers.

[gimme_bottles]

Considering an Avalon batch 3 order despite the large markup. Thoughts? Unfortunately I don't see a BFL order as a viable alternative even at this late juncture.

i would also stick to avalon, since i still don't see BFL as a trustworthy company.

Also, I am considering an increase in the price of the remaining IPO shares upon receipt of the company's batch 2 Avalon. Given the diminishing yield current shareholders have experienced while we await our first ASIC hardware I think it's fair to reward those that have held fast. Given the slower than expected network growth over the last few months the yield will be very healthy for new shareholders even at higher prices once our Avalon is hashing. The added value additional Avalon units will bring should ensure that new shareholders also enjoy a generous return.

sounds legit.

any information on the arrival date of the avalons?

[creativex]

Considering an Avalon batch 3 order despite the large markup. Thoughts? Unfortunately I don't see a BFL order as a viable alternative even at this late juncture.

i would also stick to avalon, since i still don't see BFL as a trustworthy company.

Also, I am considering an increase in the price of the remaining IPO shares upon receipt of the company's batch 2 Avalon. Given the diminishing yield current shareholders have experienced while we await our first ASIC hardware I think it's fair to reward those that have held fast. Given the slower than expected network growth over the last few months the yield will be very healthy for new shareholders even at higher prices once our Avalon is hashing. The added value additional Avalon units will bring should ensure that new shareholders also enjoy a generous return.

sounds legit.

any information on the arrival date of the avalons?

Sadly...no. They suck at this whole customer service thing. Never a response to my support ticket either, but Yifu did respond directly to my forum post saying that if we have a valid walletbit confirmation that we're good to go, so I stopped hounding them for order confirmation, though it doesn't really make the waiting much more fun. Still we're well positioned IMO with an early Avalon batch 2 order on the way & plenty of funds available for a batch 3 order. The thought of having all our funds tied up at BFL right now at the back of an endless queue of orders kind of gives me the creeps.

[arsenische]

Is Avalon batch #1 fully shipped? If I get it right, batch #2 will be delayed anyway. I think it is risky to bet on batch #3. Maybe the best strategy would be to keep bitcoins and wait for news. If BFL ships their goods, it will be several times cheaper. If BTC price goes up -- then even more cheaper. If BTC crashes -- then buy from Avalon, as they denominate in bitcoins.

[creativex]

Is Avalon batch #1 fully shipped? If I get it right, batch #2 will be delayed anyway. I think it is risky to bet on batch #3. Maybe the best strategy would be to keep bitcoins and wait for news. If BFL ships their goods, it will be several times cheaper. If BTC price goes up -- then even more cheaper. If BTC crashes -- then buy from Avalon, as they denominate in bitcoins.

No, I don't believe all the batch 1 units are shipped. The batch 2 shipping delay sounded fairly brief, but time will tell. Yeah it is risky to bet on batch 3 because receipt is a long way out, but I have to weigh that risk against expected network growth rate scenarios. Certainly I wouldn't bet heavily on a batch 3 order, but Avalon is to date the only company to ship any ASIC mining gear to any end users. BFL is...well BFL and ASICMiner's roll out has been slower than anticipated which improves batch 3 order profitability.

Whether we ultimately place a batch 3 order or no we will have significant reserves available for if/when BFL ever ships or a new player brings gear to market. Eventually the gap between placing an order for ASIC mining hardware and receiving it will narrow considerably, and when that time comes the network hashrate will grow very rapidly.

[arsenische]

well.. if you are not planning to bet all the money, it could be a reasonable strategy to have a stake there

[creativex]

well.. if you are not planning to bet all the money, it could be a reasonable strategy to have a stake there

We've benefited thus far(at least on paper) by not committing our resources to lengthy order queues with fixed exchange rates, it's an advantage I've no intention of squandering. We are however, still a BTC mining operation and as such must grow with the network.

Thanks for the input fellas.

[potato5491]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

I don't recommend this given the outrageously high price and the unpredictability of profitability depending on BFL / ASICMINER's deployment.

[arsenische]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

I don't recommend this given the outrageously high price and the unpredictability of profitability depending on BFL / ASICMINER's deployment.

Is profitability really unpredictable? What is the upper bound of network hashing power and the latest date to break even?

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

I don't recommend this given the outrageously high price and the unpredictability of profitability depending on BFL / ASICMINER's deployment.

Is profitability really unpredictable? What is the upper bound of network hashing power and the latest date to break even?

I'm not sure how much Avalon/BFL will add to the network, but ASICMINER claims to deploy 50 TH in April. Given that bASIC-MINING doesn't have any units to trade in, they'd be in the back of the queue and who knows when they'll actually receive a batch 3 unit.

[creativex]

Is profitability really unpredictable? What is the upper bound of network hashing power and the latest date to break even?

The latest date to break even will always be never, though that's unlikely here. ASICMiner's latest update suggested their goal is to deploy 50Th next month. Avalon's 2nd batch will add another 40-50Th, and there's always the outside chance BFL will finally get something out the door. I'm leaning toward a small order to keep up with network growth.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

Is profitability really unpredictable? What is the upper bound of network hashing power and the latest date to break even?

The latest date to break even will always be never, though that's unlikely here. ASICMiner's latest update suggested their goal is to deploy 50Th next month. Avalon's 2nd batch will add another 40-50Th, and there's always the outside chance BFL will finally get something out the door. I'm leaning toward a small order to keep up with network growth.

Don't forget about batch 3.

[creativex]

No way to count batch 3 as it's not open yet so I've no idea where we'd be in the order queue if/when we order and no sense yet of how many FPGA trade-ins will head their way. Anyway +100Th by the time we receive a batch 3 order is probably pretty close to worst case unless BFL stops sitting on their hands between then and now.

[potato5491]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

I don't recommend this given the outrageously high price and the unpredictability of profitability depending on BFL / ASICMINER's deployment.

I agree that BFL / ASICMINER (and others) may change the game significantly. But then surely it is better to have more mining assets rather than more BTC sitting in cash doing nothing. If ASIC farms come online in the next few months then profitability will suffer regardless.

Price of Avalon batch #3 seems appropriate to me. BTC-wise it is in the middle of batch #1 and batch #2 as I understand. I don't bother with the USD comparison - surely the only way in which USD are relevant are in the operational cost of electricity.

[creativex]

My vote would go towards getting an Avalon batch #3 order in. It seems appropriate to grow with the network using the best  and most cost effective tech available at any given time.

I don't recommend this given the outrageously high price and the unpredictability of profitability depending on BFL / ASICMINER's deployment.

I agree that BFL / ASICMINER (and others) may change the game significantly. But then surely it is better to have more mining assets rather than more BTC sitting in cash doing nothing. If ASIC farms come online in the next few months then profitability will suffer regardless.

Price of Avalon batch #3 seems appropriate to me. BTC-wise it is in the middle of batch #1 and batch #2 as I understand. I don't bother with the USD comparison - surely the only way in which USD are relevant are in the operational cost of electricity.

I agree to a point, it's theoretically better to have additional gear on order than not, but there's always the possibility that a new player will bring gear to market priced in fiat or BFL will stop being BFLish.

Entertain this scenario for a second. We go all in on non-refundable Avalon batch 3 units. This yields us 5 more Avalons in a few months(+330Gh). All seems peachy...until BFL FINALLY gets their house in order and units start flying out the door. Now our wise purchase looks a whole lot less pretty because we could've hopped on their overly long order queue with a minirig order(+1.5Th). Even though the Avalons would almost surely arrive sooner, it'd likely be better to get the minirig later.

[Deprived]

I'd be tempted to hedge your bet and order some Avalon batch 3 and also order some BFL NOW.

Much as I dislike the way BFL operates, if you're going to order from them you need to do it BEFORE they start clearing their back-log.  If they start shipping and getting production running them I'd expect them to also hike their prices up - to somewhere a bit below Avalon.  That would raise them extra revenue and also act as a sort of reward for those who pre-ordered - by removing the current situation where those who wait until they're shipping to order have done massively better than those who paid in BTC at a much worse rate.

Noone else looks like being close to market with ASICs for sale yet - so no reason for BFL to continue selling at a massive discount to Avalon once they've proven they can ship.  The price war won't start until either ASICMINER starts to sell (not likely for a long while yet) or one of the other dubious-looking claimed manufacturers turns out to actually be real.

With BTC looking (to me) a bit shaky at its current value (it may go higher but it may fall back) this is probably not a bad time to be spending it.

It's a shame that all 3 ASIC manufacturers turned out to be a bit dodgy.  Does anyone believe the delay between Avalon shipping batches 1 and 2 is to give time off to workers?  Or does everyone else believe, like me, that it's to allow batch 3 orders to be made raising the funds to finish paying to get batch 2 made (in the same way no batch 1 shipped in any quantity until after batch 2 had been paid for).

EDIT: To be clear, when I say all 3 ASIC manufacturers being a bit dodgy I mean the companies who took pre-orders to sell ASICs.  I do NOT mean ASICMINER.

[ThickAsThieves]

If you order now from BFL, isn't the estimated delivery like late summer?

[miTgiB]

If you order now from BFL, isn't the estimated delivery like late summer?

I wouldn't trust any BLF estimate until something ship.  How many estimates have passed already?

[creativex]

If you order now from BFL, isn't the estimated delivery like late summer?

I wouldn't trust any BLF estimate until something ship.  How many estimates have passed already?

That's really the problem and it makes it tough to seriously consider a BFL order at this time. On the other hand due to the incredible rise in the exchange rate a single SC is a mere 20BTC, making it a more reasonable gamble. I think late summer for an order placed today is optimistic.