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Author Topic: Yet another analyst :)  (Read 269515 times)
N12
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June 26, 2013, 06:45:10 PM
 #2381

Bearish price action is good for bulls too =)
Only for bulls who have money. Dirty fiat money.
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June 26, 2013, 06:49:59 PM
 #2382

Bearish price action is good for bulls too =)
Only for bulls who have money. Dirty fiat money.

It's sad perhaps, but as far as I know most bulls still get paid with dirty fiat money. Tongue

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June 26, 2013, 07:38:32 PM
 #2383


I've searched on that principle of maximum ruin, but I didn't found a lot of information. Could you detail it more please?

Thanks!

It's basically an application of the Pareto Principle.

Quote
The Pareto principle (also known as the 80–20 rule, the law of the vital few, and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

In other words, 20% of people will benefit from the big moves, and the other 80% will be the cannon fodder.


Do you apply the same logic to the stock market?

Many comments on MarketWatch, Yahoo Finance and others are all about how the market is now finally crashing.

Watch the comments.  When everybody starts agreeing, we will be at the bottom.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 26, 2013, 07:53:25 PM
 #2384

the 80/20 rules dont need to add up 100 it can be 80/10 or 70/20

20% of the customer make 80% of the revenue
20% of the customer make 80% of the support tickets
20% of the trade make 80% of the gains
etc etc etc

a example of this can be seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPQViNNOAkw with the contribution of photo on flicker where the 80/20 rule is very clear (after min 6)
book about it http://www.amazon.com/The-80-20-Principle-Achieving/dp/0385491743

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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June 26, 2013, 07:57:55 PM
 #2385

Watch the comments.  When everybody starts agreeing, we will be at the bottom.

The bottom of a 4 years bull market?  Cheesy
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June 26, 2013, 08:06:33 PM
 #2386

Watch the comments.  When everybody starts agreeing, we will be at the bottom.

The bottom of a 4 years bull market?  Cheesy

What stocks are you talking about that are in a 4 year bull market?  I'm in the US, and our markets are at the top of a 7 year bull run.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 26, 2013, 08:10:02 PM
 #2387

Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

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June 26, 2013, 08:12:41 PM
 #2388

Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

Right around the time Bitcoin started.
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June 26, 2013, 08:17:35 PM
 #2389

Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?



u can call the bull run since 1932 if you want  http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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June 26, 2013, 08:19:18 PM
 #2390

So many trolls everywhere... so little time...
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June 26, 2013, 08:21:44 PM
 #2391

So many trolls everywhere... so little time...
no troll sir since 1932 the dow low at 41 was no tested since then was just up and up

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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June 26, 2013, 08:33:04 PM
 #2392

what year is it again?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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June 26, 2013, 08:35:31 PM
 #2393

what year is it again?


2015, clearly

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 26, 2013, 08:35:59 PM
 #2394

Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

Fine, a 6.25 year bull market.  One which possibly topped a few weeks ago.

So, again, were is the 4 year bull run?

what year is it again?


2015, obviously.  Tongue

Edit: Nice delete, sir.  Tongue
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June 26, 2013, 08:41:17 PM
 #2395

Wasn't the bottom somewhere in 2009?

Fine, a 6.25 year bull market.  One which possibly topped a few weeks ago.

So, again, were is the 4 year bull run?

what year is it again?


2015, obviously.  Tongue

Edit: Nice delete, sir.  Tongue

Nice quote Tongue

Anyway, sorry.  That figure came from the total cycle length (top to top).  We are over 6 years past the previous bull market top.  With an average 4 year timespan from top to top, we are due for a bear market and may have just put in the top in May.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 26, 2013, 09:08:59 PM
 #2396

Anyway, sorry.  That figure came from the total cycle length (top to top).  We are over 6 years past the previous bull market top.  With an average 4 year timespan from top to top, we are due for a bear market and may have just put in the top in May.
Sell in May and go away.
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June 27, 2013, 02:38:36 AM
 #2397

Anyway, sorry.  That figure came from the total cycle length (top to top).  We are over 6 years past the previous bull market top.  With an average 4 year timespan from top to top, we are due for a bear market and may have just put in the top in May.
Sell in May and go away.

Absolutely. I'm short everything right now and long the dollar i.e. the deflation trade:

"Over the past two weeks or so, we've been seeing a very clear portrait of how sick our economies are. Not that you would know it from reading the press. The term deflation pops up only very cautiously. Could that be because people don't understand what's going on? Or are they simply afraid of the word? This is the real thing, guys. And it's going to hurt."

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/deflation-by-any-other-name-would-smell-as-foul.html
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June 27, 2013, 05:38:01 AM
 #2398


I've searched on that principle of maximum ruin, but I didn't found a lot of information. Could you detail it more please?

Thanks!

It's basically an application of the Pareto Principle.

Quote
The Pareto principle (also known as the 80–20 rule, the law of the vital few, and the principle of factor sparsity) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes.

In other words, 20% of people will benefit from the big moves, and the other 80% will be the cannon fodder.

Ok, so in other words, the market will go into the same direction until this transfer of wealth is complete?
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June 27, 2013, 06:15:13 AM
 #2399

So many trolls everywhere... so little time...

Yup I have had to pick and choose my battles given their is so much going on constantly.

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June 27, 2013, 08:22:39 AM
 #2400

Ok, so in other words, the market will go into the same direction until this transfer of wealth is complete?
remember this say "if everyone is making money nobody is making money"

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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