Yet another analyst :)

[myself]

Anybody ever ask him what he thinks of Bitcoin?




While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticized by media and pundits for his long term record. For example, The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow – But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[32] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[33]

EW works but cant predict what a single man will do  but ofc most of "smart ppl" ignore that

[1715640476]

1715640476

[Viceroy]

To be clear I didn't write that, I stole it from wikipedia.  edit, fixed.

[waveaddict]

Its a fractal theory, thats why it apply to any movement. I dont know if it is wrong or right, but it has worked for me.

Same here. I don't think it's a coincidence that Paul Tutor Jones (one of the greatest traders) is an avid follower of Elliott Wave (EW). IMO, Elliott Wave receives a terrible rap from the vast majority of people who discover it and subsequently bet the farm with one EW interpretation because they barely understanding it, lose everything, and inevitably demonize it.

As I've frequently stated, Elliott Wave is not the holy grail of trading. It's merely a tool (one of many) that a trader uses to help lower risk and maximize gains.

Anybody ever ask him what he thinks of Bitcoin?




While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticized by media and pundits for his long term record. For example, The Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow – But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[32] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[33]

It just so happens that Pretcher is an avid longer term bitcoin bull. In fact he believes it is the only asset besides cash that is a good investment during what he sees as the upcoming grand super-cycle bear market.

[lucif]

MO, Elliott Wave receives a terrible rap from the vast majority of people who discover it and subsequently bet the farm with one EW interpretation because they barely understanding it, lose everything, and inevitably demonize it.

Sounds like a slap for me as your disciple. So probably I should justify myself here.

Yes, I share only one EW prediction, while there are a lot. But..
1. My count is based on many background indicators which I dont share here.
2. Also based on my personal market observation since 2011 boom. For example,  curent bubble wave is a perfect fractal of 2011 one.
3. Also based on personal daily overview of bitcoin and stock market events. For example I know that global campaign against money laundering is in active stage and many exchanges will (or already) have problems with fiat.
4. Also based on paid analysis subscriptions. But I dont copy anyone and have personal view. I drew that triangle in weekly timeframe before many others just because I know that triangle always develops after huge moves and especially in 4th wave.

Etc, etc. I have serious background behind my pics which makes me confident along with my profits.

But I always have key indicators which will ruin my view on their break and turn my strategy in opposite direction.
I.e. I perceive market signals directly and I stopped to live in imagine world. Market taught me with this. Market is always right - not me.

tl; dr - I have different views but post here only most probable one from my own complex considerations.

[Viceroy]

Lucif,


I respect your opinion like many of the others here and appreciate your detailed analysis.  You appear to be right more often than not.  I agree that regulation is coming against exchanges and there will be a period when bitcoin will not flow freely.  Maybe that changes if the peer to peer trading starts to take off.  

I believe regulation is good for bitcoin.  While it will be expensive to build a compliant exchange I expect one to appear in the next year or two.  Maybe even one in America.  ? https://pro.bitcoincharts.com/ ?

How do you interpret what is said here?

It just so happens that Pretcher is an avid longer term bitcoin bull. In fact he believes it is the only asset besides cash that is a good investment during what he sees as the upcoming grand super-cycle bear market.

Like Mr Pretcher I'm concerned about a grand super-cycle bear market.  Assuming the US Dollar will continue to lose it's buying power is the future of bitcoin not strong?  Why would people stop trading it if there is:

1) an underground market for it which, like with fiat money, will never go away
2) an above ground market for it where non-law breakers speculate with btc vs USD
3) scarcity

[lucif]

Regulation for bitcoin is good? I don't think so. FATF is involved in war with cash. Their purpose is total annihilation of cash, total control of centralized electronic fiat flow. So you think they will say welcome to bitcoin, which is digital cash? Its a trap. "Come here, get destroyed , oh sorry, regulated of course!"

[Odalv]

Bank account can be seized but no bitcoin.

[lucif]

We have alot "bank bitcoin accounts" which stays in order to get regulated. Mtgox for example.

[Odalv]

Colored Bitcoins (almost same as bitcoins) can be used for $ transfers.

a) to make your bitcoin colored, you have to deposit $10,000/BTC (in special account)
b) if you have Colored Bitcoin then you can anytime withdraw $10,000/BTC (from special account) and make them an ordinary bitcoins.

question: how to build bank account where you can deposit money and NOBODY can seize it ?

[ElectricMucus]

Colored Bitcoins (almost same as bitcoins) can be used for $ transfers.

Gentoo Linux can be used to to setup a office PC.

[waveaddict]

MO, Elliott Wave receives a terrible rap from the vast majority of people who discover it and subsequently bet the farm with one EW interpretation because they barely understanding it, lose everything, and inevitably demonize it.

Sounds like a slap for me as your disciple. So probably I should justify myself here.

No not at all. To the best of my knowledge you have been showing various alternatives with valid reasoning. I was merely referring to those who demonize EW because they have either lost money in it and/or failed to work with it enough to truly appreciate it...and there are a lot of people who do this.

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

[waveaddict]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

[lucif]

EW is just a map. Not really accurate with coordinates, but direction is okay. A lot of other instruments required to read it, including intelligence, ta, feeling, expirence.

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

No check for consistency is done. (Usually by the drawing lines on a chart approach)
But I hold about every other method in the same regard, that includes traditional indicators, candle sticks and whatnot. I would even say every approach which isn't fully automated isn't worth the effort.

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

[waveaddict]

EW is just a map. Not really accurate with coordinates, but direction is okay. A lot of other instruments required to read it, including intelligence, ta, feeling, expirence.

That's a good analogy. I'd further it by describing it as a pre-satellite map that isn't exactly accurate with coordinates but understandable from landmarks/shape (landmarks/shape off course being EW rules and guidelines in this analogy). And, like you said, it takes experience, intelligence, feeling etc to navigate without roads, especially without GPS.

The best analogy is easily the weather one though. Meteorologists are definitely the EW practitioners of the science world, and better yet, we both love predicting further out than we probably should.

[waveaddict]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

No check for consistency is done. (Usually by the drawing lines on a chart approach)
But I hold about every other method in the same regard, that includes traditional indicators, candle sticks and whatnot. I would even say every approach which isn't fully automated isn't worth the effort.

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

You have to realize that Elliott Wave wouldn't work if it was an exact reproducible science. It can only have a small niche in TA/investing to function properly. The basic premise of the whole theory is predicting irrational and emotional herd behavior. If, instead, the entire investment community all traded rationally based on an EW formula with a set path, then everyone would front-run the next person resulting in a non-patterned and unpredictable structure.

But, the fact that it's not a precise theory which follows the basic scientific method will ensure its survival and practical use because it will stay a pseudoscience that few believe and therefore follow.

Also, you'd be surprised at how practical Fibonacci ratios are in the trading world. Basically, every successful day-trader trades on these ratios, even if he doesn't use Elliott Wave. 

[notme]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

No check for consistency is done. (Usually by the drawing lines on a chart approach)
But I hold about every other method in the same regard, that includes traditional indicators, candle sticks and whatnot. I would even say every approach which isn't fully automated isn't worth the effort.

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

Price is certainly not continuous.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

Here is a daily chart using fibo. There are many occurrences of near perfect fibo retraces. If you zoom in (hourly), there are hundreds. If you zoom in further (15min), there are literally thousands.


Fibo is also not a holy grail tool. It gives you an idea of where the price may end up to place orders. It's still better than blindly guessing on a target.

[ElectricMucus]

Yeah a lot of people "truly appreciate" numerology too. (Or "investing" in Bitcoins for that matter )

I'm guessing you're a hardened disbeliever, ElecticMucus. What characteristic about Elliott Wave is troubling you?

No check for consistency is done. (Usually by the drawing lines on a chart approach)
But I hold about every other method in the same regard, that includes traditional indicators, candle sticks and whatnot. I would even say every approach which isn't fully automated isn't worth the effort.

Interpreting the chart as a continuous non-differentiable function is ok, but attribution of arbitrary constraints is not. (Like Fibonacci ratios which are literally Numerology)
Don't come with a "track record" unless you show me statistical proof I call BS.

Price is certainly not continuous.

But the function you can describe it with can be. The concrete description becomes non-continuous once you calculate it. An EW is continuous on it's own for example.

@RyNinDaCleM Bullshit. I told I'll do it.