Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

I am not bullish or bearish. I just more like to catch bottoms rather tops. However I catch well both. Hehe.

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[ElectricMucus]

Yes we all like to do that but deep down everybody expects a particular outcome.

[lucif]

That was count I traded before. It was perfect until few days ago. Each day price stays above green line I trust it less and less.

[lucif]

Short buy everything below $70.

Daily sma 200 should rebound.

MA200 rocks! Sweet MA200... What a beauty

[thefiniteidea]

I've got a feeling it will bounce off the top of this channel and head back down to 70's. We shall see!

[lucif]

Sure will see. But I see here a lot of reversal patterns... Starting from hourly inverted H&S (already shown somewhere above) and more

[RyNinDaCleM]

Sure will see. But I see here a lot of reversal patterns... Starting from hourly inverted H&S (already shown somewhere above) and more

Hey, lucif! Do you have your SC set up correctly? Neither my SierraChart or Bitcoincharts shows a doji for last week. The only doji I see is this current week and the triangle C was close.

[oda.krell]

Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.


And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this




will end up like this





i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.

[Rampion]

Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.


And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this




will end up like this





i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.

That looks accurate

[myself]

Hey, lucif! Do you have your SC set up correctly? Neither my SierraChart or Bitcoincharts shows a doji for last week. The only doji I see is this current week and the triangle C was close.

he dont use UTC  thats the problem

[BitPirate]

Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.


And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this




will end up like this





i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.

That looks accurate

"Accurate"? Strange choice of words for a time period comparison that can only be confirmed in the future.

Relevant? Not so much. As will be proven when we break $115 today and $130 in a couple of weeks.

[molecular]

Just adding my voice to the "Don't stop posting, don't get rid of this thread" choir.


And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this




will end up like this





i.e. whether you think it is likely that we got one bump up from the SMA, but break right through it ~4 weeks later, in a repeat of 2011.

That looks accurate

There's one main difference: in 2011 the bounce from SMA200 was a new low (~$5.50), considerably lower than the previous one (the one right after bubble burst at $10). In 2013 that bounce point ($65) is considerably higher than the after-burst low ($50).

Of course it could play out like that, but your comparison is not an indication in my mind.

[bitcodo]

We just like to compare I guess.
On hourly daily SMA20 is also similar. Price was spot on it for 2 weeks before we went down, than on top of envelop and then down below envelop as price tuched SMA200 again.
Not prediction, just observation

[lucif]

And would like to ask, since you're quite fond of the 1d SMA200, what your opinion is about the possibility that this


will end up like this

I thought so of course. I don't know what happened, maybe this idea became too popular. But I see this is going not to be happen with 50/50 estimation.

Rebound in Aug 2011 wasn't impulsive, but current is.

And yeah, current correction looks like 4th wave. I'd prefer to compare it with another 4th one (Aug-Dec 2012).

[notme]

We just like to compare I guess.
On hourly daily SMA20 is also similar. Price was spot on it for 2 weeks before we went down, than on top of envelop and then down below envelop as price tuched SMA200 again.
Not prediction, just observation

IMO this market has too many small bot trades for SMA to be useful.  Weighted is the way to go.

[Lohoris]

A few days ago I was just wondering why your ignore button was so bright... I still have no idea why so many people put you into ignore; I'm curious to know that, but I've never weighted your posts based on that thing! Actually, apart from the curiosity about "why", I never cared.

Well, lucif has always been a fun read, but there were times in which his ultra-bearish analysis was not welcomed... And to be honest, almost always wrong. For example, check the posts in this thread from mid January onwards, he was ultra bear while the price was consistently going UP UP UP, there were quite a few flamewars in here, if I don't remember it wrong the "blue guy" and cypher even wanted to remove him from their subscription services

Lucif was wrong for a long time on his analysis, but at least always provided TA insights that supported bearish scenarios, which was something that we totally lacked in this community, which is ultra-bullish by definition. He went a little bit extreme tough, I remember how he always wrote about this being "the doomsday thread", where only bearish analysis had space... No bullish counts allowed And this while Bitcoin was at the doors a huge run-up to $266

Maybe that had something to do with his glaring ignore button

Don't be offended lucif, I'm a regular of this thread because right or wrong I always enjoyed it. While you were a bear in Jan-Feb I held like a mofo regardless of what you said, but I learnt a lot of TA and EW.

thank you for explaining this! : )

[lucif]

Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.

[N12]

Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.

The bearish triangle one?

[Frozenlock]

Something like this?

[samson]

Obviously my last count (bullish), wrong. Using old one.

Now you're talking. I'm 100% USD at the moment.

I wasn't convinced by the price action lately - too much coasting around in the high 90's for my liking.

I'm waiting for lower prices.