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Author Topic: Yet another analyst :)  (Read 268970 times)
BrightAnarchist
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July 18, 2013, 01:27:31 PM
Last edit: July 18, 2013, 01:54:07 PM by BrightAnarchist
 #2661

You should laugh, but I have a feeling, based on special subset of my indicators, which says that my short buy @~65 may transform into long position. 30% probability estimation.

Really good call on this!

On a wave basis, we have 9 waves down from the July 21st high - specifically, looking like a wave 4 finished near $100 and we had a fifth wave impulse down from there to complete a larger impulse (9 waves visible on a chart is typical because it means one of the impulse waves extended, giving you 1-2-3-4-(1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5) in this case). So we could easily mean-revert back to $100 from here as a correction of the burgeoning Wave C downtrend.

Yep.
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thefiniteidea
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July 18, 2013, 01:39:07 PM
Last edit: July 18, 2013, 07:40:10 PM by thefiniteidea
 #2662



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lucif
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July 18, 2013, 02:34:08 PM
 #2663

nice extrapolation ))
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July 18, 2013, 02:38:32 PM
 #2664

Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.

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July 18, 2013, 05:12:16 PM
 #2665

Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
a bottom in 2014 april will be nice .... a year full of chop chop

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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July 18, 2013, 07:27:04 PM
 #2666

Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.
a bottom in 2014 april will be nice .... a year full of chop chop

It won't surprise me, and nevertheless April 2014 is just around the corner. What would really surprise me is a multi-year (2/3) bear market as BrightAnarchist predicts. I really can't see how that could happen.

thefiniteidea
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July 18, 2013, 07:39:36 PM
 #2667

Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.

Woops! Yes, I completely agree. Extrapolated onto the wrong chart Smiley

This puts us at a bottom around $30 in November, later this year (which I think is definitely plausible), and $100 again by next July...

Here we go (edited previous comment):


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N12
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July 18, 2013, 07:42:04 PM
 #2668

That works. Sell in May, come back Halloween. Cheesy
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July 18, 2013, 07:42:33 PM
 #2669

I think you are overdoing it a little with the extrapolations.
thefiniteidea
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July 18, 2013, 08:22:16 PM
Last edit: July 19, 2013, 02:30:43 AM by thefiniteidea
 #2670

I think you are overdoing it a little with the extrapolations.

I'm way ahead of you here and have extrapolated that this reply will be next...


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July 18, 2013, 11:28:23 PM
 #2671

Yep, but it looks like it will take longer. A bottom by mid August seem unlikely and very optimistic.

Woops! Yes, I completely agree. Extrapolated onto the wrong chart Smiley

This puts us at a bottom around $30 in November, later this year (which I think is definitely plausible), and $100 again by next July...

Here we go (edited previous comment):



lucif
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July 23, 2013, 04:20:00 PM
 #2672

Walking dead market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100906754

Quote
Negligible economic growth? No sweat. Recession in Europe? Nobody cares. China slowdown? Big deal. Near-zero revenue growth? Someone else's problem. Federal Reserve tapering? Who needs 'em?

 Grin
thefiniteidea
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July 23, 2013, 04:29:33 PM
 #2673

Walking dead market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100906754

Quote
Negligible economic growth? No sweat. Recession in Europe? Nobody cares. China slowdown? Big deal. Near-zero revenue growth? Someone else's problem. Federal Reserve tapering? Who needs 'em?

 Grin

That's hilarious. I love this term.

I'm going to start using it.

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SkRRJyTC
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July 23, 2013, 08:32:19 PM
 #2674

Walking dead market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100906754

Quote
Negligible economic growth? No sweat. Recession in Europe? Nobody cares. China slowdown? Big deal. Near-zero revenue growth? Someone else's problem. Federal Reserve tapering? Who needs 'em?

 Grin

Do you think the Fed is serious about QE tapering?

Analysts on this forum have been talking about shorting the stock market since at least S&P 1450.  Shorting the stock market is a losing game while USD cant hold its value.
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July 23, 2013, 08:43:42 PM
 #2675

Walking dead market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100906754

Quote
Negligible economic growth? No sweat. Recession in Europe? Nobody cares. China slowdown? Big deal. Near-zero revenue growth? Someone else's problem. Federal Reserve tapering? Who needs 'em?

 Grin

Do you think the Fed is serious about QE tapering?

Analysts on this forum have been talking about shorting the stock market since at least S&P 1450.  Shorting the stock market is a losing game while USD cant hold its value.

DXY has risen since 2011? does that just mean other countries' currencies have dropped that much more relative to us?

the thing is, I think the thing we're afraid of is deflation of all this debt.

Am I spamming? Report me!
SkRRJyTC
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July 24, 2013, 12:20:04 AM
 #2676

DXY is silly.   I never need to buy other currencies with my dollar.  I measure my dollars value in the amount of goods and services I buy.

So even if DXY has risen over two years if the price of milk and gas is rising then the value of my dollar has gone down.

Guess I should invest in the stock market...
notme
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July 24, 2013, 12:43:19 AM
 #2677

DXY is silly.   I never need to buy other currencies with my dollar.  I measure my dollars value in the amount of goods and services I buy.

So even if DXY has risen over two years if the price of milk and gas is rising then the value of my dollar has gone down.

Guess I should invest in the stock market...

Food and energy have been rising in price.  Foreign cars and electronics have been falling.  Since you are on the internet, I have a feeling you buy electronics.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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July 24, 2013, 01:13:11 PM
Last edit: July 24, 2013, 01:36:34 PM by Zarathustra
 #2678

myself
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July 24, 2013, 01:16:59 PM
 #2679


free tip for ya
1) alt+print screen
2) spit tabs so u dont have to pain over the other tabs
3) ads block edge https://addons.mozilla.org/en-us/firefox/addon/adblock-edge/ > ads block plus  http://techcrunch.com/2013/07/06/google-and-others-reportedly-pay-adblock-plus-to-show-you-ads-anyway/

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
lucif
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July 24, 2013, 08:28:15 PM
 #2680

As I don't see daily volume increase since april drop, I can say market continue to draw some figure. Your captain obvious.
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