Yet another analyst :)

[humanitee]

Yet another proof that price doesn't care about news.

No I think it's just that nobody cares about Thailand

LOL for real. If that's what Frozenlock meant, well, I have no words.

[N12]

Yet another proof that price doesn't care about news.

No I think it's just that nobody cares about Thailand

LOL for real. If that's what Frozenlock meant, well, I have no words.

He's right. It's only perception of news that counts, not the news itself, and that can vary depending on what kind of price environment we are in.

[humanitee]

He's right. It's only perception of news that counts, not the news itself, and that can vary depending on what kind of price environment we are in.

He's got an opinion, that doesn't make it right, or even close. Seriously, who cares about Thailand making something illegal? They are a speck in the Bitcoin world.

[N12]

Looks like we agree fundamentally then, my point is if Bitcoin were in a different phase it could have been perceived as dreadful news. Think opposite of Cyprus. It's always the same nonsense justifications.

[Frozenlock]

He's right. It's only perception of news that counts, not the news itself, and that can vary depending on what kind of price environment we are in.

He's got an opinion, that doesn't make it right, or even close. Seriously, who cares about Thailand making something illegal? They are a speck in the Bitcoin world.

News are always interpreted (or discarded) in function of the current market mood.

Like Blitz said, who cared about Cyprus? They are even less then a peck in the Bitcoin world.
And yet everyone was talking about it when the market was bullish.

I viewed the FINCEN event as a bad news... but in a bullish market, that's good news.


Edit: By the way, that's a good insight into the current market sentiment...

[humanitee]

News are always interpreted (or discarded) in function of the current market mood.

Like Blitz said, who cared about Cyprus? They are even less then a peck in the Bitcoin world.
And yet everyone was talking about it when the market was bullish.

Idk, that's like saying citizens in Thailand already have tons of Bitcoin that they are immediately going to dump on the market. The case in Cyprus is the opposite, the citizens will be more inclined to buy. If there are hardly any users, making something illegal (and only pseudo at that) is not a big deal.

I agree that the Cyprus scenario was blown way out of proportion at the time. However, I still believe the Cypriots/Argentinians will come around, just let it snowball a bit. These situations are the killer app for Bitcoin. This is assuming Gox doesn't explode in the near future.

I guess Thailand can ban the Internet in the interim.

[MAbtc]

News are always interpreted (or discarded) in function of the current market mood.

Like Blitz said, who cared about Cyprus? They are even less then a peck in the Bitcoin world.
And yet everyone was talking about it when the market was bullish.

Idk, that's like saying citizens in Thailand already have tons of Bitcoin that they are immediately going to dump on the market. The case in Cyprus is the opposite, the citizens will be more inclined to buy. If there are hardly any users, making something illegal (and only pseudo at that) is not a big deal.

It's about how one perceives market actors will act -- not necessarily about how one perceives residents of Thailand will act.

Also, this doesn't exist in a vacuum. This "event" (or non-event as the case may be) takes place within the context of a very unclear and grey-market regulatory atmosphere, a landscape which is clearly changing.

I agree that the Cyprus scenario was blown way out of proportion at the time. However, I still believe the Cypriots/Argentinians will come around, just let it snowball a bit.

Then wouldn't you agree that the news itself doesn't matter -- only how it fits in with the context of market sentiment? Did anyone expect Cypriots to be buying bitcoins en masse?!

[samson]

Did anyone expect Cypriots to be buying bitcoins en masse?!

Of course not, their bank accounts were all frozen. The whole 'cyprus thing' was a joke.

[yayayo]

Did anyone expect Cypriots to be buying bitcoins en masse?!

Of course not, their bank accounts were all frozen. The whole 'cyprus thing' was a joke.

I would extend that joke to the media-attention-because-of-cyprus-bitcoin-fear-buying-myth.


ya.ya.yo!

[lucif]

Get your TA

Watch out: Daily close above Bollinger - first bullish sign.


Watch out: Weekly close above middle Bollinger - bullish trend 95% confirmation.


I will go by count candidate #2 in that case.

[humanitee]

News are always interpreted (or discarded) in function of the current market mood.

Like Blitz said, who cared about Cyprus? They are even less then a peck in the Bitcoin world.
And yet everyone was talking about it when the market was bullish.

Idk, that's like saying citizens in Thailand already have tons of Bitcoin that they are immediately going to dump on the market. The case in Cyprus is the opposite, the citizens will be more inclined to buy. If there are hardly any users, making something illegal (and only pseudo at that) is not a big deal.

It's about how one perceives market actors will act -- not necessarily about how one perceives residents of Thailand will act.

Also, this doesn't exist in a vacuum. This "event" (or non-event as the case may be) takes place within the context of a very unclear and grey-market regulatory atmosphere, a landscape which is clearly changing.

I agree that the Cyprus scenario was blown way out of proportion at the time. However, I still believe the Cypriots/Argentinians will come around, just let it snowball a bit.

Then wouldn't you agree that the news itself doesn't matter -- only how it fits in with the context of market sentiment? Did anyone expect Cypriots to be buying bitcoins en masse?!

I don't disagree with anything you said.

I'm disagreeing with the differences in news. As far as I can tell nobody really knows what the stance on Bitcoin is in Thailand, just that there aren't pre-existing laws so that it is de facto illegal. Furthermore, making something illegal does not cause the price to automatically tank as Frozenlock suggested, look at drugs as an example. When the Cyprus news hit, it was actually in major media outlets and Bitcoin got a lot of attention for its qualities, ie. avoiding confiscation in scenarios like Cyprus. I haven't seen the Thailand pseudo-news rippling like that.

I want to drone on with this but I'll stop as to not derail the thread further.

[MAbtc]

I don't disagree with anything you said.

I'm disagreeing with the differences in news. As far as I can tell nobody really knows what the stance on Bitcoin is in Thailand, just that there aren't pre-existing laws so that it is de facto illegal. Furthermore, making something illegal does not cause the price to automatically tank as Frozenlock suggested, look at drugs as an example. When the Cyprus news hit, it was actually in major media outlets and Bitcoin got a lot of attention for its qualities, ie. avoiding confiscation in scenarios like Cyprus. I haven't seen the Thailand pseudo-news rippling like that.

I want to drone on with this but I'll stop as to not derail the thread further.

Part of this conversation, as far as I was concerned, was based around the hypothetical situation that Thailand had banned bitcoin, so what really happened is moot. FUD or news -- it all has an effect.

Re comparing bitcoin with drugs, my thoughts are contained here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=211507.msg2220457#msg2220457

But fair enough....

[thefiniteidea]

If we break $110, I will eat my feet.

Good short position here in my opinion.

[ElectricMucus]

If we break $110, I will eat my feet.

Good short position here in my opinion.

That'll be stupid. Shorting is for when you are certain, if you short and aren't certain chance are you gonna get wiped out.
(Been there done that)

[humanitee]

If we break $110, I will eat my feet.

Good short position here in my opinion.

Haha, might want to go wash them just in case!

[Frozenlock]

Get your TA

Watch out: Daily close above Bollinger - first bullish sign.


Watch out: Weekly close above middle Bollinger - bullish trend 95% confirmation.


I will go by count candidate #2 in that case.

Or the bear is dead... 

[smoothie]

Looks like we agree fundamentally then, my point is if Bitcoin were in a different phase it could have been perceived as dreadful news. Think opposite of Cyprus. It's always the same nonsense justifications.

I guess your signature is quite wrong.

 

[lucif]

Or the bear is dead... 

I think wave (2) end  is there where you have 2 of (3). So now we have only 1 of (3).

And imo here is not (1)(2)(3), but (a)(b)(c) triangle next leg.

[notme]

Or the bear is dead... 

https://www.tradingview.com/x/kQeCdJqP/

I think wave (2) end  is there where you have 2 of (3). So now we have only 1 of (3).

And imo here is not (1)(2)(3), but (a)(b)(c) triangle next leg.

That is certainly possible.  Only time will tell.

[ArticMine]

Get your TA

Watch out: Daily close above Bollinger - first bullish sign.


Watch out: Weekly close above middle Bollinger - bullish trend 95% confirmation.


I will go by count candidate #2 in that case.

Or the bear is dead... 

I doubt there is such a thing as a market where the bears are dead. It is more like they go into hibernation for a while, as they did earlier this year.