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Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!
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Topic: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed! (Read 8570 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
philipma1957
(OP)
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'The right to privacy matters'
Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!
January 13, 2016, 01:55:41 PM
Last edit: January 21, 2016, 07:52:35 PM by philipma1957
#1
Setting it up. We have prize money left for 8 jumps.
prize is 0.10
No newbies
You must have joined Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.
You must have at least 30 posts.
picks are .1 sized
so bellow are typical picks
-1.0 = philipma1957
-0.9
0.0
+0.1 = wlefever
+1.1 = adaseb
please use this format
+1.1 = wlefever would be the easiest for me to track
Pick as high or as low as you want.
no new members you must have opened your account before Oct 31st it must have 30 posts. It must not have a recent password change.
Last thread results
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1310083.msg13534902#msg13534902
the winner is wlefever for last jump of +9.12%
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Difficulty History
Date Difficulty Change Hash Rate
Jan 13 2016 113,354,299,801 9.12% 811,421,684 GH/s the winner is
wlefever
please pm your btc addy I will send coins
Dec 31 2015 103,880,340,815 11.16% 743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015 93,448,670,796 18.14% 668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015 79,102,380,900 8.77% 566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015 72,722,780,643 10.44% 520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015 65,848,255,180 5.77% 471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015 62,253,982,450 2.25% 445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015 60,883,825,480 0.12% 435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015 60,813,224,039 2.49% 435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015 59,335,351,234 4.17% 424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015 56,957,648,455 4.98% 407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015 54,256,630,328 2.95% 388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015 52,699,842,409 0.81% 377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015 52,278,304,846 2.35% 374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015 51,076,366,303 3.39% 365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015 49,402,014,931 -0.58% 353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015 49,692,386,355 4.42% 355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015 47,589,591,154 -2.50% 340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015 48,807,487,245 2.44% 349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015 47,643,398,018 0.07% 341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015 47,610,564,513 -3.71% 340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015 49,446,390,688 5.84% 353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015 46,717,549,645 -1.50% 334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015 47,427,554,951 1.59% 339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015 46,684,376,317 5.01% 334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015 44,455,415,962 7.71% 318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015 41,272,873,895 -6.14% 295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015 43,971,662,056 8.20% 314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014 40,640,955,017 3.00% 290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014 39,457,671,307 -1.37% 282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014 40,007,470,271 -0.73% 286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014 40,300,030,328 1.76% 288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014 39,603,666,252 10.05% 283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014 35,985,640,265 2.81% 257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com
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DISCORD
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1714190425
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1714190425
1714190425
#2
1714190425
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 01:55:51 PM
#2
spacer.
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MΞTAWIN
│
THE FIRST
WEB3 CASINO
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DISCORD
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keystroke
Hero Member
Offline
Activity: 900
Merit: 1014
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 02:49:37 PM
#3
Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.
"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
philipma1957
(OP)
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Merit: 7765
'The right to privacy matters'
Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 02:54:18 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2016, 03:55:50 PM by philipma1957
#4
Quote from: keystroke on January 13, 2016, 02:49:37 PM
Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.
Well fourth of July would be all american but I think July 10 or 11.
9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38
so since then we did 59 blocks should have done 55 blocks so we are at 7.27% real time
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MΞTAWIN
│
THE FIRST
WEB3 CASINO
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ezeminer
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 06:35:36 PM
#5
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 13, 2016, 02:54:18 PM
Quote from: keystroke on January 13, 2016, 02:49:37 PM
Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.
Well fourth of July would be all american but I think July 10 or 11.
9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38
so since then we did 59 blocks should have done 55 blocks so we are at 7.27% real time
If we keep advancing at 8-10% per adjustment, wouldn't the halving come at 8-10% time sooner?
Right now cryptocoinnews estimates at 188 Days until halving, but if we continuously go at 10% wouldn't it be 18.8 days less? Thus halving coming late june.
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fr4nkthetank
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 07:37:26 PM
#6
I feel we'll be near 10% again guys
Mikestang
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 08:22:52 PM
#7
I think we're going to be high single digits again, too. Simply astounding, hundreds of PH each adjustment amount to sooooo many machines being plugged in around the world.
philipma1957
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 13, 2016, 09:15:07 PM
Last edit: January 13, 2016, 09:31:29 PM by philipma1957
#8
Quote from: ezeminer on January 13, 2016, 06:35:36 PM
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 13, 2016, 02:54:18 PM
Quote from: keystroke on January 13, 2016, 02:49:37 PM
Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.
Well fourth of July would be all american but I think July 10 or 11.
9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38
so since then we did 59 blocks should have done 55 blocks so we are at 7.27% real time
If we keep advancing at 8-10% per adjustment, wouldn't the halving come at 8-10% time sooner?
Right now cryptocoinnews estimates at 188 Days until halving, but if we continuously go at 10% wouldn't it be 18.8 days less? Thus halving coming late june.
we are not going to keep at 8 - 10% without a price change.
now to answer how fast will we reduce 2016 blocks in 13 days vs 14 days is 155 blocks vs 144 blocks
or 7.64 %
so it is
Jan 27
Feb 10
Feb 24
Mar 9
Mar 23
Apr 6
Apr 20
May 4
May 18
Jun 1
Jun 15
Jun 29
Jul 13
Jul 27 current ½ ing guess
so drop 14 days = Jul 13
of course that is with 7.64%
Now here is why it will not be 7.64% 14 adjustments at that number = a factor of 2.803 so current diff = 113 it would be
2.803 x 113 = a diff of 317!
puts all .25 watt gear under water at 9 cents.
and remember the network has 400ph in .5 watt or worse gear.
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MΞTAWIN
│
THE FIRST
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DISCORD
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notlist3d
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 12:49:50 AM
#9
Bitwisdom is starting high double digits:
Bitcoin Difficulty: 113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty: 125,610,740,850 (+10.81%)
Adjust time: After 1915 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?): 843,249,330 GH/s
Price is don around 431.. .so the mid 440's are not there right now.
philipma1957
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 02:03:27 AM
#10
we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38 this was the 2016 block of last adjustment
block 393121 2016-01-13 07:03:04 this was the 1 block of this adjustment
block 393226 2016-01-14 01:48:42 this was the 106th block if this adjustment
so we are 19 hours and 10 minutes in that should be 114 blocks
So real world actual time we are at a negative number. about -7.02%
the problem is the network can do 25% higher then this speed.
So while this low number is nice the big boys crank it up and we pull a few 175 block days in a row and plus 8 % or worse.
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keystroke
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 03:27:28 AM
#11
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 13, 2016, 09:15:07 PM
Jul 27 current ½ ing guess
Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.
"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
valkir
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 03:41:24 AM
#12
Hope that the diff will stop growing at 10%
██ Please support sidehack with his new miner project Send to :
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philipma1957
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 04:19:07 AM
#13
Quote from: keystroke on January 14, 2016, 03:27:28 AM
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 13, 2016, 09:15:07 PM
Jul 27 current ½ ing guess
Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.
I am not sure how they get the date.
Are they basing it on 9%
Are they basing it on 8%
Are they basing it on 7%
My July 27 is based on 0%
My early July 13 is based on 7%
So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17
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DISCORD
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skuser
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 05:46:00 AM
Last edit: January 14, 2016, 08:03:03 AM by skuser
#14
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 14, 2016, 04:19:07 AM
Quote from: keystroke on January 14, 2016, 03:27:28 AM
Quote from: philipma1957 on January 13, 2016, 09:15:07 PM
Jul 27 current ½ ing guess
Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.
I am not sure how they get the date.
Are they basing it on 9%
Are they basing it on 8%
Are they basing it on 7%
My July 27 is based on 0%
My early July 13 is based on 7%
So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17
July 18th which I have on nextdifficulty.com is based on next difficulty estimate + 0% afterwards which is basically 0% minus one two days, the same as bitcoinclock has. So you must have something wrong in your calculations.
edit: the simpliest formula halvingdays=(420000-lastblocknumber)/144 gives you when say last block was 393260 = 26740/144=185.7 days. Today is January 14th, + 185 days =July 17th
Live ROI calculations for cloud mining and asic hardware
adaseb
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 07:49:57 AM
#15
Yes and even if we get 10% diff increases every period it will probably still be sometime in July or so. Or late June, highly doubt any sooner then that.
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keystroke
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 12:34:03 PM
#16
I agree they just keep the change at 0%. I'm also thinking it will happen the first two weeks of July or late June.
26,713 blocks left, 2016 blocks per cycle, so 13.25 cycles left. The halving occurs 1/3 into a difficulty adjustment cycle. Last time it happened 1/6 of the way in.
"The difference between a castle and a prison is only a question of who holds the keys."
adaseb
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 01:39:32 PM
#17
Its crazy how we went from 743,604,444 GH/s to 811,421,684 GH/s. That is like 14,315 Antminer S7, and they only sell like 50-100 a day.
Even if Bitfury is more efficent by a factor of 5, thats 2863 Bitfury machines, so they would need to build 250 of them every single day to keep up.
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BEST
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wpt1wpt1
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 03:03:59 PM
#18
Below is an interesting corollary to bitcoin mining. Just as the gold rush progressed individual miners were pushed out as industrial miners were the only ones able to extract the gold profitably. The big difference is with the halving the difficulty of extraction is known well in advance. Hence right now we are in the dig deep, dig fast mode by the industrial miners. They know they only have a limited time to get their return on investment and will deploy equipment until the ROI disappears and maybe a little longer. It will be really interesting to see what happens as the halving nears, I kind of think the difficulty will slow as some big miners are going to go out of business. Perhaps the there is hope that the hobby miners will hang on as they are willing to take a small loss to keep mining?
http://www.history.com/topics/gold-rush-of-1849
LASTING IMPACT OF THE GOLD RUSH
After 1850, the surface gold in California largely disappeared, even as miners continued to arrive. Mining had always been difficult and dangerous labor, and striking it rich required good luck as much as skill and hard work. Moreover, the average daily take for an independent miner working with his pick and shovel had by then sharply decreased from what it had been in 1848. As gold became more and more difficult to reach, the growing industrialization of mining drove more and more miners from independence into wage labor. The new technique of hydraulic mining, developed in 1853, brought enormous profits but destroyed much of the region’s landscape.
THR
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d57heinz
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Bitcoin Talks Bullshit Walks
Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 03:46:26 PM
#19
Quote from: wpt1wpt1 on January 14, 2016, 03:03:59 PM
Below is an interesting corollary to bitcoin mining. Just as the gold rush progressed individual miners were pushed out as industrial miners were the only ones able to extract the gold profitably. The big difference is with the halving the difficulty of extraction is known well in advance. Hence right now we are in the dig deep, dig fast mode by the industrial miners. They know they only have a limited time to get their return on investment and will deploy equipment until the ROI disappears and maybe a little longer. It will be really interesting to see what happens as the halving nears, I kind of think the difficulty will slow as some big miners are going to go out of business. Perhaps the there is hope that the hobby miners will hang on as they are willing to take a small loss to keep mining?
http://www.history.com/topics/gold-rush-of-1849
LASTING IMPACT OF THE GOLD RUSH
After 1850, the surface gold in California largely disappeared, even as miners continued to arrive. Mining had always been difficult and dangerous labor, and striking it rich required good luck as much as skill and hard work. Moreover, the average daily take for an independent miner working with his pick and shovel had by then sharply decreased from what it had been in 1848. As gold became more and more difficult to reach, the growing industrialization of mining drove more and more miners from independence into wage labor. The new technique of hydraulic mining, developed in 1853, brought enormous profits but destroyed much of the region’s landscape.
Id say that would be more reason for manufacturers to push sales now and into the future.. Just like with the california gold rush.. only a few come out rich.. Out of those few 90 % are the ones that sold the shovels and gold pans
. the analogy applies to this in so many ways!!!!.. That's why when bitmain released s7 at such high price i was pissed.. As i knew where we are ultimately heading..it is what it is.. Mine as much as you can now .. hold as much as you can now. wait for a few halvings and if its increased enough in value for you then sell it.. But you never know if btc will be here in 10 years so that's the big unknown .. Hence this is all a gamble. So to each their own in this experiment..
Best Regards
d57heinz
As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
notlist3d
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Re: Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed.
January 14, 2016, 06:05:38 PM
#20
I have been trying to find any news that might have pushed btc down. Worst I could find recently was Cryptsy -
http://www.coindesk.com/class-action-lawsuit-filed-digital-currency-exchange-cryptsy/
. Do you guy's think the fact of a decent size exchange having problem is having much effect or something else is doing it?
It's still in 430's so not horrible but is lower then a week ago around the 450 price. So a small drop really I guess in scheme of things.
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