Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[philipma1957]

Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.

I am not sure how they get the date.

Are they basing it on 9%

Are they basing it on 8%

Are they basing it on 7%

My July 27 is based on 0%

My early July 13 is based on 7%

So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17

July 18th which I have on nextdifficulty.com is based on next difficulty estimate + 0% afterwards which is basically 0% minus one two days, the same as bitcoinclock has. So you must have something wrong in your calculations.

edit: the simpliest formula  halvingdays=(420000-lastblocknumber)/144  gives you when say last block was 393260 = 26740/144=185.7 days. Today is January 14th, + 185 days =July 17th

okay  so shift the 27 to 17  and the 13 to 3  and July 3rd if we do 7.7% average.

I can't see us doing 7.7%  from now to July 3   it is still a factor of    2.8  so diif would be 113 x 2.8 =317

I just can not see how we can be at a diff of 317 and  hash of   2.8 x 830ph = 2324ph

[radiumsoup]

I can't see us doing 7.7%  from now to July 3   it is still a factor of    2.8  so diif would be 113 x 2.8 =317

I just can not see how we can be at a diff of 317 and  hash of   2.8 x 830ph = 2324ph

I don't think of it in terms of hashrate being a constraint, I think in terms of wattage... in my observation, availability of hardware doesn't seem to me to be the slowdown in the rate of growth; capacity for power does, since the megafarms are the ones driving total network speed now, and power/cooling are their primary concern when it comes to planning growth.

Worst case: Assume half the network is .5 watts per gigahash/sec or worse, the remaining is .25w, and that all miners with .5w+ devices will be be turned off as unprofitable and replaced with .05w devices in the next few months. For the same power capacity, half the network goes up 10x, which means the whole network goes up 5x to about 4,200 petahash/sec. (Actually, it's closer to 5.5x, but I'm generalizing here anyway). That's the maximum power capacity of the current network in the short term. The restriction then would be the price of the sub-20nm devices we're being promised...if their prices are 5x higher than the .25w devices, there's no incentive for the .25w miners to adopt early by dropping their .25w devices for the .05w stuff. If their prices are less than 5x, then Katie bar the door, because there's going to be a race to the halving - and past it - like the widespread introduction of the first ASICs. If the exchange rate of BTC keeps pace with (or does better than) the rise in difficulty *after* the halving compared to the price they paid for the equipment before the halving, then the halving will be transparent to their bottom lines and it won't be a factor for large farm adoption of .05w devices. If the exchange rate doesn't keep pace at the halving, then network growth should effectively stop until the older devices are paid off. (Keep in mind, though, that it only matters to current revenue generation - miners that have a large stash of mined Bitcoins held in reserve will benefit much more to the rise in price, giving them even more power to grow immediately by adding .05w devices to their existing .25w farms.) It's definitely possible, then, to surpass your expectations - in theory.

All that said, that is the worst case I see - I don't think there is actually enough manufacturing capacity with the existing vendors to deliver that much .05w hash in such a short timeframe. I personally think the non-manufacturer megafarms are waiting until after the halving to determine what risks to take next. I know if I had even 5% of the network, I'd be sitting on my hands right now hoarding BTC hoping for an exchange rate increase even more than it has in the last quarter... unless I was making my own hardware and already knew my cost for upgrading, then I'd be balls to the wall building more and more capacity in my farms. Poor us small potatoes, though...totally at the mercy of the hardware vendors deciding how much to mine for themselves and how much to offer for sale (and for what price).

Lots of moving parts. Fascinating, and in some ways scary.

[philipma1957]

I can't see us doing 7.7%  from now to July 3   it is still a factor of    2.8  so diif would be 113 x 2.8 =317

I just can not see how we can be at a diff of 317 and  hash of   2.8 x 830ph = 2324ph

I don't think of it in terms of hashrate being a constraint, I think in terms of wattage... in my observation, availability of hardware doesn't seem to me to be the slowdown in the rate of growth; capacity for power does, since the megafarms are the ones driving total network speed now, and power/cooling are their primary concern when it comes to planning growth.

Worst case: Assume half the network is .5 watts per gigahash/sec or worse, the remaining is .25w, and that all miners with .5w+ devices will be be turned off as unprofitable and replaced with .05w devices in the next few months. For the same power capacity, half the network goes up 10x, which means the whole network goes up 5x to about 4,200 petahash/sec. (Actually, it's closer to 5.5x, but I'm generalizing here anyway). That's the maximum power capacity of the current network in the short term. The restriction then would be the price of the sub-20nm devices we're being promised...if their prices are 5x higher than the .25w devices, there's no incentive for the .25w miners to adopt early by dropping their .25w devices for the .05w stuff. If their prices are less than 5x, then Katie bar the door, because there's going to be a race to the halving - and past it - like the widespread introduction of the first ASICs. If the exchange rate of BTC keeps pace with (or does better than) the rise in difficulty *after* the halving compared to the price they paid for the equipment before the halving, then the halving will be transparent to their bottom lines and it won't be a factor for large farm adoption of .05w devices. If the exchange rate doesn't keep pace at the halving, then network growth should effectively stop until the older devices are paid off. (Keep in mind, though, that it only matters to current revenue generation - miners that have a large stash of mined Bitcoins held in reserve will benefit much more to the rise in price, giving them even more power to grow immediately by adding .05w devices to their existing .25w farms.) It's definitely possible, then, to surpass your expectations - in theory.

All that said, that is the worst case I see - I don't think there is actually enough manufacturing capacity with the existing vendors to deliver that much .05w hash in such a short timeframe. I personally think the non-manufacturer megafarms are waiting until after the halving to determine what risks to take next. I know if I had even 5% of the network, I'd be sitting on my hands right now hoarding BTC hoping for an exchange rate increase even more than it has in the last quarter... unless I was making my own hardware and already knew my cost for upgrading, then I'd be balls to the wall building more and more capacity in my farms. Poor us small potatoes, though...totally at the mercy of the hardware vendors deciding how much to mine for themselves and how much to offer for sale (and for what price).

Lots of moving parts. Fascinating, and in some ways scary.

I highlight that part.  I come up with this idea if my power is 2 cents in China  and bitfury has 4 cents in Russia

Bitmaintech will  build up to  all the power it can get a hold of using .25 gear  since at 2 cent power it is like  .125watt gear.

So I see growth but not 7.7% fo rthe next 13 straight jumps.   Unless of course price goes up to 800+

If 230 to 430 price jumped us to  a diff of 113  then a 430 to 800 price can jump us higher maybe to a diff of 200 or 250

[adaseb]

Ok today is over and we finished the day at -9%

Looking good so far.

[notlist3d]

Ok today is over and we finished the day at -9%

Looking good so far.

That is a pretty amazing number I wish that it would last.  Would love a week with low or negative would be even better but I wont hold my breath.

Price is in the high 420's.  So dropped from low 430's.  So BTC is going opposite direction as we want it to.

[philipma1957]

Ok today is over and we finished the day at -9%

Looking good so far.

That is a pretty amazing number I wish that it would last.  Would love a week with low or negative would be even better but I wont hold my breath.

Price is in the high 420's.  So dropped from low 430's.  So BTC is going opposite direction as we want it to.

well if we had -9 for diff   and price drops from 435 to 410  that is -5.7

so its a win for mining.

From all that I have seen we are not going to keep ripping 9 or 10 %

last diff the worst day was Jan 10 at 178 blocks

the diff before the worst day was dec 27 at 202 blocks

We know bitfury did a really big mega farm say 200ph.
We know they had tons of up and down days
Well if they have settled in and no more ups and downs that is one less growth for now.

My guess is  5% or less this time. (I hope)

a 132  block day is nice

147 on the 13th
132 on the 14th      these are good.

[adaseb]

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

[notlist3d]

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

It's going to get hard to mine if difficulty keeps rising like it does and BTC does not head in the up direction.  I'm afraid of what halving will look like... that could really hurt if this trend continues.

Mining is getting harder and harder.

[adaseb]

I think the best time to mine is NOW!

Only going to get harder and harder from here on.

[Amph]

I think the best time to mine is NOW!

Only going to get harder and harder from here on.

they said the same thing the last year, there will be always a good opportunity for mining if you have the same deal as big farm, because otherwise it mean that not even those farm can mine...you know

[skuser]

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

...and you were right, we are touching 400 now. Crashing through 400 support would be really bad news.

[notlist3d]

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

removed pic for space

...and you were right, we are touching 400 now. Crashing through 400 support would be really bad news.

It's dropping fast ouch all we can do is hope sale walls hold up.   I really don't want to go under 400 again.

Am I missing any bad news? I saw Cryptsy went bad.  But nothing that I thought would cause this drop.

[adaseb]

I think the best time to mine is NOW!

Only going to get harder and harder from here on.

they said the same thing the last year, there will be always a good opportunity for mining if you have the same deal as big farm, because otherwise it mean that not even those farm can mine...you know

Yeah but one thing you need to understand is that if everybody else is doing it, then its never a good thing.

Back in 2014 people went crazy about mining and everybody was buying BTC or miners left and right, and look what happened.

Alot of people took a loss in 2015 and things began to stabalize.

Same thing happened with the price of Gold/Silver 5 years ago, everybody was buying it and it became a bubble and crashed.

[FIN_BTC]

I guess next diff level would be 128,000,000,000.00 or even more. It will depends btc market price. Total available hash power is more than 1,200,000,000.00 GH/s, so there is much power in reserve. I think we will see 0.10J/Gh or even 0.05J/Gh chips this year. These chips might be running already.

[skuser]

Yeah I know this isn't a BTC price speculation but in the short/medium term, I see it going a little lower with those failed highs recently.

removed pic for space

...and you were right, we are touching 400 now. Crashing through 400 support would be really bad news.

It's dropping fast ouch all we can do is hope sale walls hold up.   I really don't want to go under 400 again.

Am I missing any bad news? I saw Cryptsy went bad.  But nothing that I thought would cause this drop.

I think the reason is technical...short term speculators resigned on possibility of fast profits as BTC was unable to cross previously hit 500 USD barrier.

[philipma1957]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

[d57heinz]

I guess next diff level would be 128,000,000,000.00 or even more. It will depends btc market price. Total available hash power is more than 1,200,000,000.00 GH/s, so there is much power in reserve. I think we will see 0.10J/Gh or even 0.05J/Gh chips this year. These chips might be running already.

Of course the manufacturers got to keep this rolling.. If not for asic sales in btc where would btc price be atm.. Prolly much less than it is now.. Beginning to wonder without sales of asics in btc.. what is the real value of btc..

If we break through 390 ish  hang on to your hat .. Next fib line is in the 340 - 350 $ area..   I dumped what i had to to pay power at 418..  This sure makes the diff jumps that much harder to take..

[d57heinz]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement 

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

[edonkey]

The best that happens is btc settles at 350.  that should halt a lot of growth.

yes if they were growing with .5 watt or more gear but they arent.. Its growin with .25 and .1 watt gear.. so they can drive the price right on down to the mid 100$ if they like

Ohh and we can thank china for this aswell   On January 15, 2016, Mike Hearn officially resigned as a full time Bitcoin core developer. Even if a new team replaces Bitcoin Core, Hearn emphasizes that the concentrated and centralized mining power in China would still be a critical issue.

http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/01/15/mike-hearn-resigns-and-leaves-bitcoin-permanently/

ive been thinking this for a while now..

“It has failed because the community has failed,” said Hearn. “What was meant to be a new, decentralised form of money that lacked “systemically important institutions” and “too big to fail” has become something even worse: a system completely controlled by just a handful of people.”

Here is his official statement 

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.cxygsg9eg

Yes, the recent price drop is almost certainly due to Mike's announcement. I read it yesterday. It's very sobering, and very pessimistic.

It's not enough to make me panic and sell out. But it is clear that the Bitcoin protocol needs to change in order for the currency to grow, but there are a number of very difficult factors that are preventing the right things from happening.

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

[radiumsoup]

Ironic that probably the biggest threat to Bitcoin is its own community and an inability to change...

Such are the pains of open source. It's great in theory, but it introduces a TON of inefficiencies, and leadership disparity can one of the biggest issues. This is going to get rocky, especially with a looming global banking crisis on the horizon again.