Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[philipma1957]

I locked this by accident.  iPad mini and fat fingers. sorry.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,366,708,987 (+6.19%)
Adjust time:   After 269 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):   974,525,860 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.7 minutes
6 blocks: 55.4 minutes
Updated:


   http://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   394868
Total BTC   15.122M
 
Difficulty   113354299801
Estimated   118955395134 in 268 blks  this is about  4.94%
 
Network total   1052636.736 Thash/s
Blocks/hour


we are on tap to do 156/159 blocks today.

 so  the last three days are 173 - 179 - 159  very impressive numbers.

[RichBC]

we are on tap to do 156/159 blocks today.

 so  the last three days are 173 - 179 - 159  very impressive numbers.

Yes it's amazing given the network size that so much additional hash can be added in 3 Days. I actually made it 176, 179 and I think Today could be over 160...


Rich

[mavericklm]

Considering the 600% luck for the last 5blocks, that kano had at one point, i find no surprise in 200blocks per day
Last 10 Blocks   2.1days   101.2%   46.89%   46.89%   0.0219   213.26%
Last 50 Blocks   19.3days   101.0%   74.30%   73.68%   0.0224   135.73%
Talking about luck over here! not upgrades or downgrades of the sha256 servers around the world...

Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,526,206,236 (+6.33%)
Adjust time:    After 264 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    970,313,773 GH/s

Go down you bitch!

[philipma1957]

we are on tap to do 156/159 blocks today.

 so  the last three days are 173 - 179 - 159  very impressive numbers.

Yes it's amazing given the network size that so much additional hash can be added in 3 Days. I actually made it 176, 179 and I think Today could be over 160...


Rich

off the top of my head  let me check actual.

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

this is 176 then 175

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1453504441765

this is 176 then  179

today at least 157 with 45 minutes left.

[d57heinz]

Net Hashrate

1,077,979.46 TH/s according to the wallet

goin up the last couple hours or so.. was around 900 peta at noon today.  thought we would see another drop.. but all sudden it quickly ramped back up.. Im hoping the peak of 1140 peta i seen is the very top

Best Regards
d57heinz

[mavericklm]

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

[d57heinz]

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

i agree seems with all this hash its been swinging very wild  i wonder if that has to do with block propagation.. If half the network is constantly 30sec - 1 min behind at block change would that cause crazy flux.. or is that negligible at this point..  Interesting for sure


Edit>> also i was thinking that they turned on and left it on all along and this could have just been network variance on finding blocks.. Hard to say.. But ive seen a lot question why one would turn on such a large amount and off(leaving coin on the table)  but it could be testing or heat issue.. could also be a bad streak of luck as well..


Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

Final for today 171

So for three days we averaged over 175.

So we had about a 970 ph average for 72 hours

[d57heinz]

Final for today 171

So for three days we averaged over 175.

So we had about a 970 ph average for 72 hours

Nice thanks for that.. i thought we would see much bigger drop today.. More of wishful thinking i suppose..  looks like its finally getting adjusted to such a large amount being thrown on at once i suppose

[philipma1957]

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

i agree seems with all this hash its been swinging very wild  i wonder if that has to do with block propagation.. If half the network is constantly 30sec - 1 min behind at block change would that cause crazy flux.. or is that negligible at this point..  Interesting for sure


Edit>> also i was thinking that they turned on and left it on all along and this could have just been network variance on finding blocks.. Hard to say.. But ive seen a lot question why one would turn on such a large amount and off(leaving coin on the table)  but it could be testing or heat issue.. could also be a bad streak of luck as well..


Best Regards
d57heinz

well we do know that bitfury has a working chip that can do .06 to .11 watts per gh.

we do know they built a 40 megawatt plant

we do know all the wild swings started near that plant's announced startup.

So    my guess is cranking it up and down as they learn to manage the full speed full power .

Last three days suck.... 

[notlist3d]

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

i agree seems with all this hash its been swinging very wild  i wonder if that has to do with block propagation.. If half the network is constantly 30sec - 1 min behind at block change would that cause crazy flux.. or is that negligible at this point..  Interesting for sure


Edit>> also i was thinking that they turned on and left it on all along and this could have just been network variance on finding blocks.. Hard to say.. But ive seen a lot question why one would turn on such a large amount and off(leaving coin on the table)  but it could be testing or heat issue.. could also be a bad streak of luck as well..


Best Regards
d57heinz

well we do know that bitfury has a working chip that can do .06 to .11 watts per gh.

we do know they built a 40 megawatt plant

we do know all the wild swings started near that plant's announced startup.

So    my guess is cranking it up and down as they learn to manage the full speed full power .

Last three days suck.... 

Part of what I find scary if they really have them is bulk sales.   They chances are will use internal and get first on all they want I would guess.  Then they move to big buyers.  And if you think about it I'm willing to bet they have some sales already saying once chip comes out they want to buy.

Even at .11 it beats SP50, so not sure what SP team will do.   Unless they play price games which did not help them on SP20's.   So I think our main driving force will be bitfury.  Only thing we don't know is if some companies such as Bitmain have one sitting there ready to make that can compete with bitfury.  I almost hope bitfury is only one for a bit.... as I hate seeing high difficulty rising.

Value is up around 400 again (a few dollars shy), but positive to see a tad bit of rising.  Difficulty is not looking great.

[philipma1957]

The variations get bigger and bigger!
Can go to 700 or 1400 just for few hours!

i agree seems with all this hash its been swinging very wild  i wonder if that has to do with block propagation.. If half the network is constantly 30sec - 1 min behind at block change would that cause crazy flux.. or is that negligible at this point..  Interesting for sure


Edit>> also i was thinking that they turned on and left it on all along and this could have just been network variance on finding blocks.. Hard to say.. But ive seen a lot question why one would turn on such a large amount and off(leaving coin on the table)  but it could be testing or heat issue.. could also be a bad streak of luck as well..


Best Regards
d57heinz

well we do know that bitfury has a working chip that can do .06 to .11 watts per gh.

we do know they built a 40 megawatt plant

we do know all the wild swings started near that plant's announced startup.

So    my guess is cranking it up and down as they learn to manage the full speed full power .

Last three days suck....  

Part of what I find scary if they really have them is bulk sales.   They chances are will use internal and get first on all they want I would guess.  Then they move to big buyers.  And if you think about it I'm willing to bet they have some sales already saying once chip comes out they want to buy.

Even at .11 it beats SP50, so not sure what SP team will do.   Unless they play price games which did not help them on SP20's.   So I think our main driving force will be bitfury.  Only thing we don't know is if some companies such as Bitmain have one sitting there ready to make that can compete with bitfury.  I almost hope bitfury is only one for a bit.... as I hate seeing high difficulty rising.

Value is up around 400 again (a few dollars shy), but positive to see a tad bit of rising.  Difficulty is not looking great.

as long as new gear is being developed  the builders have an interest in keeping price up.

 From Feb 1 to July  I see  a lot happening.

Notice those 200 block days have not happened this adjustment.

Makes me think bitfury's 40 megawatt  did those  and now that  diff jumped a few times we get 170-180 instead of 200-205  when the plant runs max.

Really does make me think  the network in in the 1010 area right now if everyone pushes the equipment owned.

this jump may be 7% so   811 x 1.07 =  868ph  with the ability to go to 1010  that would mean   next adjustment  no day will pass 168

If that is the case the bitfury 40 megawatt still makes sense.   but it also means at least one more jump  of 7% after this one.

to 929 ph  and one more after that to 993 ph  

so

 Jan 13 to  jan 26 = 7%  868ph

Jan 26 to feb 8 = 7%      929 ph

Feb 8 to  feb 22 = 7%    993 ph


and then maybe we go flatter  but since the network has shown a 970ph   aver  for 3 days in a row. 

I think we get to 1000ph before that feb22 guess 

[d57heinz]

yeah i agree.. ive seen a couple wild peaks on the 8 hour  but as far as the 24 hour it hasnt gotten much over 1 exa.. Lets hope bitfury comes thru in march.  What im wondering if thats just chips or an actual miner?



if we call the 8 hour peaks variance and the 24 hour a possibility of a peak running rate   we could see 1100 ish ph/s

[philipma1957]

Closed!

-3.5 = Quickseller
-3.0 = pusttiu
-0.2 = edonkey

 0.0 = skuser

+1.1= indiemax
+1.7 = bileq
+2.3 = RichBC
+2.4 = vortexz
+2.6 = Amph
+2.7 = philipma1957
+2.8 = radiumsoup
+3.1 = tertius993
+3.2 = tlhIlwI
+3.4 = lanfeusst
+3.5 = Ankara
+3.6 = Mikestang
+3.7 = -droid-
+3.8 = Notlist3d
+4.0 = wlefever
+4.1 = d57heinz
+4.2 = HerbPean
+4.3 = alh
+4.4 = ACAB
+4.5  = Zebedee
+4.6 = tss
+4.7 = ezeminer
+4.9 = Kexkey     +4.9 = ailikun  my error so both can keep this pick  and both would get .1
+5.0 = Valkir
+5.2 = blindminer
+5.4 = flikflak
+5.5 = tennozer
+6.0 = Lituation
+6.1 = kama
+6.5 = ingiltere
+6.6 = fr4nkthetank
+7.0 = mavericklm
+8.4 = wpt1wpt1
+9.1 = VirosaGITS
+9.3 = adaseb
+20.0 = Lauda  

final picks are above

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:   120,677,920,231 (+6.46%) -------  I think we are going to carry over
Adjust time:   After 135 Blocks, About 20.1 hours
Hashrate(?):   980,816,944 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.9 minutes
3 blocks: 26.8 minutes
6 blocks: 53.6 minutes
Updated:   

we are have another solid day at least 160 blocks

so 176 179 167  and 160 something for today  big numbers for sure.

[notlist3d]

The price is recovering pretty significantly from the recent downturn.

I think my cat was relying on a lower price helping keep the difficulty flat. Perhaps there won't be any fishy treats in it for him this time...

We were hitting over 400 by a tad for a little bit last night.  Now down around 390 so lost a little bit o the push up.

We are getting closer and closer to difficulty change to:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,491,509,470 (+6.30%)
Adjust time:    After 130 Blocks, About 19.4 hours
Hashrate(?):    978,037,329 GH/s

[wlefever]

I think we are stuck in a downward channel for the next 5-6 weeks on price. And it's looking like the difficulty increases are getting a bit tamer in the mid single digits.  I just hope that lasts and we got under 5% until April when we should see Bitfurys chips.

[kama]

guys there is something like that "nearest choice will be profited" ?

[Mikestang]

Dropping price and rising difficulty isn't good for anyone, I would rather see the opposite happen!  As long as the price floor stays ~$380 I don't think too many people complain, but personally I like seeing $4XX as the bottom, it just makes me feel better.

[edonkey]

The price is recovering pretty significantly from the recent downturn.

I think my cat was relying on a lower price helping keep the difficulty flat. Perhaps there won't be any fishy treats in it for him this time...

Why in the world did you repost my exact words from 5 days ago?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1326210.msg13622452

Not that I object if someone else lets their cat guess the difficulty

[notlist3d]

Dropping price and rising difficulty isn't good for anyone, I would rather see the opposite happen!  As long as the price floor stays ~$380 I don't think too many people complain, but personally I like seeing $4XX as the bottom, it just makes me feel better.

I would agree it is nice to see that 400+ price in head.  Makes me think were heading right way.  I'm kinda tired of 380-400 area but I guess it could be worse then that.

Bitwisdom is pretty constant:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    120,576,340,401 (+6.37%)
Adjust time:    After 117 Blocks, About 17.5 hours
Hashrate(?):    967,826,093 GH/s