There will be no ASICs in January

[ElectricMucus]

Happy new year!

[creativex]

Troll much? 

Happy New Year!

[dust]

Want to bet? I predict at least one of BFL, bASIC, Avalon or ASICMINER will deliver a product in January (In ASICMINER's case, this means running devices on behalf of shareholders)

Please don't link a betsofbitco.in bet, I want locked in odds.

[ElectricMucus]

Want to bet? I predict at least one of BFL, bASIC, Avalon or ASICMINER will deliver a product in January (In ASICMINER's case, this means running devices on behalf of shareholders)

Please don't link a betsofbitco.in bet, I want locked in odds.

Make an offer then.

[mrb]

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally 

[dust]

Want to bet? I predict at least one of BFL, bASIC, Avalon or ASICMINER will deliver a product in January (In ASICMINER's case, this means running devices on behalf of shareholders)

Please don't link a betsofbitco.in bet, I want locked in odds.

Make an offer then.

Even odds, up to 100BTC, trusted escrow.

For BFL, bASIC and Avalon, I win if an end customer receives a product on or before Jan. 31.
For ASICMINER, I win if some or all of their initial production batch begins hashing for shareholders on or before Jan. 31.
Pre-production or sample units hashing do not count as a win for me.

I'm not very familiar with ASICMINER's plans, so I welcome clarifications.

[ElectricMucus]

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally  

You are desperately trying to twist the meaning of my post, don't try again. I said they will, fail on spec and don't deliver on time. I was right on the latter.
Bogus enough for me. I never said they wouldn't deliver anything (although that is entirely possible)


@dust problem, I don't have 100BTC...

[dust]

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally 

You are desperately trying to twist the meaning of my post, don't try again.


@dust problem, I don't have 100BTC...

100BTC is my maximum, I am willing to bet less.

[ElectricMucus]

Well I have like 1BTC atm.

Sorry, that was just too good a trolling opportunity to miss up.

[mrb]

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally  

You are desperately trying to twist the meaning of my post, don't try again. I said they will, fail on spec and don't deliver on time. I was right on the latter.
Bogus enough for me. I never said they wouldn't deliver anything (although that is entirely possible)

Being late hardly qualifies as being "bogus". This is simply incompetence in planning timelines (hardly surprising from BFL, hence why I gave my bet a deadline of June 30, 2013).

You say I twist your words, but you words are vague. You keep saying "fail on spec". But technically this means you believe BFL could release an ASIC achieving 999 Mhash/Joule (barely "failing" their estimated 1000 Mhash/Joule). So, I would like to hear from you a Mhash/Joule number that you are ready to bet on.

[ElectricMucus]

Wow, ElectricMucus is changing his mind on ASICs!

He previously said that the whole BFL ASIC project was bogus (back when BFL was the only vendor to have announced ASICs.) But now he seems to believe *someone* will ship ASICs eventually, just not in January. I am glad you are finally able to think rationally  

You are desperately trying to twist the meaning of my post, don't try again. I said they will, fail on spec and don't deliver on time. I was right on the latter.
Bogus enough for me. I never said they wouldn't deliver anything (although that is entirely possible)

Being late hardly qualifies as being "bogus". This is simply incompetence in planning timelines (hardly surprising from BFL, hence why I gave my bet a deadline of June 30, 2013).

You say I twist your words, but you words are vague. You keep saying "fail on spec". But technically this means you believe BFL could release an ASIC achieving 999 Mhash/Joule (barely "failing" their estimated 1000 Mhash/Joule). So, I would like to hear from you a Mhash/Joule number that you are ready to bet on.

Efficiency it's all that matters, at the time I was posting that thread it was common consensus amount BFL supporters that not only they will have their devices significantly before the reward halfing but also that they will be the most powerful and cost effective solution by a long shot.
Most people pre-ordered from BFL with that approach and, alone from the failure to enable ASIC mining before the block reward reduction BFL qualifies as "Bogus". They ordered from BFL because they thought they gonna mine with ASICs before the block reward reduction and even calculated their budget and finances accordingly.

I dare you to find any post where I specifically state that BFL isn't going to deliver any product at all for certain. What is certain is that they are BOGUS in terms of made-to-believe efficiency and ROI.

[mrb]

I dare you to find any post where I specifically state that BFL isn't going to deliver any product at all for certain. What is certain is that they are BOGUS in terms of made-to-believe efficiency and ROI.

So please, set an exact Mhash/Joule number below which you would consider BFL as "failing to deliver".

Would they fail if they deliver 999 Mhash/Joule? 700 Mhash/Joule? 500 Mhash/Joule? 350 Mhash/Joule?

(Mhash/Joule is the same as Mhash/s/Watt if this confuses you.)

[ElectricMucus]

They themselves have stated 10% margin that's what it is. I am certain they will fail to deliver that since it is in their business model to exaggerate. (The stated 1GH/J so that'll be below 909.09MH/J)

I think it is probable that they vastly under-deliver, in excess of 50% but not certain.
But this thread is not about that topic, it is about shipping dates which are more of an immediate concern.

[mrb]

Well my personal estimate is that they will do around 700 Mhash/Joule. So it looks like you don't disagree with me so much after all.

In any way, even if they achieved 700 Mhash/Joule, and do it late, this does not warrant you criticizing them as "bogus". 30% below expectation wouldn't be the end of the world. You and I have a different definition of this word.

[pyromaniac]

Everyone is a scam, but bASICs are a biggest scam and a liars! They even does not send the money back, if your order is canceled. So Butterflies are not the worst company.

[BitSyncom]

How's this ElectricMucus: If we do ship before January ends, you send the entire Avalon team cookies, the soft kind, not too sweet made with coarse grains to provide texture. The conventional chocolate-chip ones are good too but the molasses and ginger chews are especially delicious with fresh cinnamon.

[AniceInovation]

How's this ElectricMucus: If we do ship before January ends, you send the entire Avalon team cookies, the soft kind, not too sweet made with coarse grains to provide texture. The conventional chocolate-chip ones are good too but the molasses and ginger chews are especially delicious with fresh cinnamon.

If not, you send him a rig. How's that? Then this bet will start to get serious

[Jack1Rip1BurnIt]

Everyone is a scam, but bASICs are a biggest scam and a liars! They even does not send the money back, if your order is canceled. So Butterflies are not the worst company.

Dude what the hell are you talking about? Ask for refund and you will get it.

[pyromaniac]

Everyone is a scam, but bASICs are a biggest scam and a liars! They even does not send the money back, if your order is canceled. So Butterflies are not the worst company.

Dude what the hell are you talking about? Ask for refund and you will get it.

I already did. If they still alive, then they are liars.

[juggalodarkclow]

If you guys go through with the bet I'll offer my services as an escrow agent.