Review of S.DICE

[Bowjob]

Everyone should make fun of me now that I sold almost half of my holdings 12,500 shares. I'm glad I hedged a bit though.

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[sunnankar]

S.Dice shares have reached 0.0075 in MPEX. Well done

Yes, once again I was right.

Should be worth slightly less than double that if you take this months earnings into consideration

Well, I am not sure if double is the right amount but S.Dice is certainly worth more than .0075. Jan earnings so far are about 17k BTC on 680k. So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered. My Wallet just passed 100k users.

Also, since the initial .0037 IPO sold out earlier in the month the European gaming magazine advertising campaign, according to the prospectus, should be getting rolled out soon. That should help quite a bit with publicity, brand recognition, earnings and share price.

So, I would not be surprised if those 4m shares at .01 start getting nibbled into pretty soon. 40k BTC is a lot of savings ($800k) so it would be surprising if the capital pools are that deep. But MPEx did add 49 new accounts in Jan. That wall at .0075 should get taken out pretty quickly since they are undervalued.

Despite not being a fan of the vices, I am actually kind of interested in this little experiment. I wonder if some casino is going to acquire SD for $100-200m in 12-18 months.

[k]

So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered.

I've seen you talk about these retained earnings before. Is there something in the prospectus about this? My understanding is that the profits are shared out amount the 100 million shares. So 10% goes to owners of the shares on MPEX and the other 90% goes to the other shareholder(s) (Erik or whoever), so those Bitcoins are not owned by SatoshiDice so shouldn't be used in making a valuation of the shares.

[sunnankar]

So, after dividend this should leave approximately 45k of retained earnings making it an extremely safe investment all things considered.

I've seen you talk about these retained earnings before. Is there something in the prospectus about this? My understanding is that the profits are shared out amount the 100 million shares. So 10% goes to owners of the shares on MPEX and the other 90% goes to the other shareholder(s) (Erik or whoever), so those Bitcoins are not owned by SatoshiDice so shouldn't be used in making a valuation of the shares.

Well, I suppose it is implied from past behavior (Oct 2012) based on terms 2.2(f-h) of IPO Agreement #3. It also makes sense based on the business model. Based on blockchain analysis, it looks like the other 90% investors take at most dividends equal to the 10% publicly listed. After all, SD's bankroll is one of its competitive advantages so it makes sense to get a large bankroll.

A little more clarity from the issuer on this issue of retained earnings would probably be good but I completely understand an unwillingness to do so as any representation could implicitly limit future behavior. But then the 10% shareholders are freeriding? off the 90% shareholder(s) retained earnings.

Really, the financial statements just need to be cleaned up a little bit. The Google Doc is pretty amateur (typical of startup Bitcoinland). And with an $12.5m market capitalisation it might justify the expense. As a shareholder I would not be opposed to a $100-200/month fee for a CPA to create a nice and pretty Google Doc (plus, three years of professionally prepared financial statements might be helpful when it comes time to sell it). Plus, it would free up the time of whoever is currently creating the Google Doc.

[wachtwoord]

They cannot hire someone for fiat money because they have none. As far as I can tell their strategy in the battle concerning the legality of the enterprise is keeping everything (all expenses and income) in the company in Bitcoin. That's one of the reasons for the IPO as the previous owners of the IPO'ed shares are able to use the funds acquired from that sell outside the current Bitcoin economy.

[sunnankar]

As far as I can tell their strategy in the battle concerning the legality of the enterprise is keeping everything (all expenses and income) in the company in Bitcoin.

That is one defense. But there are even stronger legal defenses that can be employed. The blockchain is a remarkable tool for slicing through all types of issues like civil procedure and purposeful availment to start with.

I do not think there are any material legal risks associated with SD; not that I would recommend the concession of any facts regarding it. Additionally, I would change some of the wording on the site to clean up some loose ends.

[Korbman]

Anyhow, I am doing much better on the investment side than I was rolling the dice, how about you guys?

In at .0037 and still holding 

[ThickAsThieves]

Hopefully a big vegas player comes and buys s.dice

I'm not sure if that's the ideal situation though.

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for? And, at what price is it more prudent for a buyer to just start his own operation?

[byronbb]

It's about limits and payout %. That's how you improve the product. A 500max bet is pretty big but its small in the world of degen whales.

Here's someone droping 900k on Barcelona last year on Betfair.



And here are current superbowl odds at pinnacle with max bet at 140k with rebets allowed after line move.

[sunnankar]

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

[herzmeister]

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though. It has no precious user data like other sites do.

[Peter Lambert]

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though. It has no precious user data like other sites do.

It may not have user data, but it does have users. People would pay to not have to generate their own userbase.

[ThickAsThieves]

 It has no precious user data like other sites do.

The site could probably implement user wallets and accounts at satoshidice.com.

The site very well may be worth $100m+, but that's a lot of money to put toward doing it yourself and marketing the piss out of it.

[Peter Lambert]

 It has no precious user data like other sites do.

The site could probably implement user wallets and accounts at satoshidice.com.

The site very well may be worth $100m+, but that's a lot of money to put toward doing it yourself and marketing the piss out of it.

Why would they need to make their own wallet, when blockchain.info wallet already has a direct satoshidice feature?

[sunnankar]

What could S.DICE realistically sell out for?

I think $100-200m in the next 12-18 months is realistic.

S.DICE is *only* about the domain though.

Actually, it is about even less than just the domain name which makes it even more valuable because there is even less risk to its going concern status.

[ThickAsThieves]

 It has no precious user data like other sites do.

The site could probably implement user wallets and accounts at satoshidice.com.

The site very well may be worth $100m+, but that's a lot of money to put toward doing it yourself and marketing the piss out of it.

Why would they need to make their own wallet, when blockchain.info wallet already has a direct satoshidice feature?

In reference to collecting user data. If the site takes user registrations, and includes a wallet, users will be more likely to stay there.

For users that are more interested in gambling than in the bitcoin movement, they might enjoy having an account. This would enable things like animated bets and interactive aspects playing the game. It would also give a way to collect email addresses  to announce new features, games, or products.

The website could also have a simple guide to help users that are new to bitcoin get set up with a personal wallet , etc.

Just thinking out loud...

[nrd525]

S. Dice is grossly over-valued.  The cost of creating a competitor is very low.  They don't offer anything special that another competitor cannot easily replicate.    Someone could return 99.5% of bets and still make a killing.

I'd value the company at 1x-2x annual earnings and label it as very high risk.

[Korbman]

They don't offer anything special that another competitor cannot easily replicate.

You're thinking about coding and layout. What you're not thinking about is the value of a Brand, which is generally what drives the value of a company. One million people could create one million gambling sites, but there will always be the original "SatoshiDice".

[nrd525]

They've got a name brand and some built up trust.  But they don't offer a community, a building, a color, a taste, a smell, a unique product or anything that holds a strong attraction to most people.

Maybe gamblers feel a strong connection to a company that takes away their money?  If so, I'm not a gambler so I don't understand this appeal.

Friendster and Myspace had both a name brand and a massive community - and they were both destroyed.  Imagine how fast they would have died without their strong communities.

Unlike many real corporations that have valuable assets (often approaching their market value), when/if Satoshi Dice fades away or rapidly dies you'll get 0% back. 

[Peter Lambert]

They've got a name brand and some built up trust.  But they don't offer a community, a building, a color, a taste, a smell, a unique product or anything that holds a strong attraction to most people.

They have bitcointalk.org!