Review of S.DICE

[adamstgBit]

I'm thinking of buying some S.DICE shares,and so I'm trying to get an estimate of the bonds annual yield

100 shares = 0.001% of all shares
assuming dividend pay out of 1,000BTC / month to share holders = 0.01BTC dividend pay out / month for 100 shares
100 shares cost ~0.4, so an investment of 0.4BTC will yield 0.12BTC a year ~30% annual yield

not bad, eh?

should i hit the buy button?  

[zoinky]

You won't.

[DPony13]

You can buy shares of Satoshi Dice?

Wow, you'd earn a lot if that's true.

[adamstgBit]

You can buy shares of Satoshi Dice?

Wow, you'd earn a lot if that's true.

yes you can buy them, 10,000,000Shares have been issued, 100% of Satoshi Dice's profits are distributed to share holders.

and now they are trading on MPEX, I'm dealing with a pass through... havelockinvestments.com

[Bugpowder]

Your growth model is fairly conservative....

If you can pick up passthru shares for under .005, I'd do it.  Shares just hit 0.0048 on MPEX now that the IPO sold out.

[Chalkbot]

adam,

Do you know anything about havelockinvestments? I like the site, but never heard of it and don't know who is running it. Must be relatively new, since only 3 funds currently, unless I'm missing something.

[adamstgBit]

adam,

Do you know anything about havelockinvestments? I like the site, but never heard of it and don't know who is running it. Must be relatively new, since only 3 funds currently, unless I'm missing something.

It is run by the people behind cavirtex I believe. It has been around for a few months so far.

I think they are 2 separate Canadian companies that work closely thorougher.

they started off with only 1 fund, their own mining fund. My guess is they try very hard not to offer ponzi scheme investments so are very picky about what funds are traded on their platform.

and yes they are relatively new...  Aug 2012

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnmbKPh6qqs

[Chalkbot]

Thanks for the info guys.

I might just test it out a little and see how it goes.

[adamstgBit]

Havelock Investments is pleased to announce it is now accepting applications for funds to list on our exchange. We strive to achieve a very high level of both transparency and confidence, and will be thorougly vetting any applications. We will only accept the highest quality funds into our exchange. If you would like to apply, simply Contact Us via email and describe your company/fund, its dividend/growth strategy and provide complete contact information, so we can contact you to move forward.

[adamstgBit]

the  S.DICE IPO on havelock sold out 

[sunnankar]

and so I'm trying to get an estimate of the bonds annual yield

First, Satoshi Dice is an equity play; not a bond. So you should be doing the appropriate financial analysis.

All original shares from the IPO have now been sold.

Now that you are quite a bit richer (or rather, your assets are more liquid now) what sort of stuff are you going to do with all those bitcoins (if you would like to share)?

A nice 8% jump in price has been nice for those of us holding shares. Where are all those people saying this was a horrible stock to hold? Cause it would take "like 10 years to make any money!"?

Well, actually its trading at around 0.0047 now so that is more like a 40% gain.

While not being a fan of the vices, this does present a fairly finance textbook example of a melt-up due to good news. Let me run through the analysis for the fun of it.

Although December had unusually high earnings of 3.2% (17,206.44888669 /537,375.97) the intriguing part is the strengthening of the SD balance sheet to the tune of about 28,000 BTC retained earnings.

To be conservative we will assume the public float dividend were doubled and paid out to the anonymous investor holding the other 90%. After all, the anonymous investor owns 9x more than the public float and would not want to jeopardize SD's solvency potentially having to shutter it due to bad luck and has probably not taken any dividends since they probably have plenty of cash from the IPO and could probably fly private wherever they want with this type of monthly cash-flow.

This leaves about 25,000 BTC of retained earnings which to exhaust would require about -4.795% negative luck on 550,000 BTC of bets compared to the Dec beginning retained earnings of -2.22%. Assuming the anonymous investor has taken no dividends then the luck probabilities change to -5.11% and -2.29%.

In other words, if you do the probability (some other math whiz can solve this if they feel particularly magnanimous) that SD will exhaust its RE's due to bad luck in the dice game and cease being a going concern then it reveals that solvency risk just plummeted massively causing an increase in the expected discounted future cash flows.





Everything else being equal, this additional 15,500 BTC of retained earnings, makes SD much safer of an investment with a much higher NPV which is already corrected for BTC exchange rate risk.

Consequently, a melt-up in the price is to be expected. What is fairly exceptional is that the issuer did not cancel the IPO's at .0037 or at least move the bid up; or maybe the anonymous investor bought them using some dividends. But that is neither here nor there, using a similar risk premium before Dec's earnings would put a price around at least .0075. So it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get there; assuming an average Jan luck.

[adamstgBit]

Yup, i feel good about my investment 

[adamstgBit]

am i reading this chart right, 5 days ago 4milloin shares were sold? that almost half of all the shares, anonymous investor sold some of his 90%?

[adamstgBit]

I'm thinking of buying some S.DICE shares,and so I'm trying to get an estimate of the bonds annual yield

100 shares = 0.001% of all shares
assuming dividend pay out of 1,000BTC / month to share holders = 0.01BTC dividend pay out / month for 100 shares
100 shares cost ~0.4, so an investment of 0.4BTC will yield 0.12BTC a year ~30% annual yield

not bad, eh?

should i hit the buy button?  

my calculation are dead wrong.
their are actually 100,000,000 shares, 90% of which is held by the owner, 10% of which was sold as IPO

Based on current profits, 1000 shares will earn .0299 BTC monthly (0.3588 BTC yearly) which is roughly a 8.79% annual dividend yield at IPO prices.

not as HOT as i thought but still, a good place to park some coins 

[Korbman]

Do you know anything about havelockinvestments? I like the site, but never heard of it and don't know who is running it. Must be relatively new, since only 3 funds currently, unless I'm missing something.

Havelock has been around for a bit, but they've only started opening up their doors to hosting new funds in October 2012 or so. I was their first fund besides their own to be featured (and it's not easy to get hosted..you have to prove you're a good investment first).

You can probably message Lightbox here on the forums, he's the owner of Havelock and runs the exchange.

the  S.DICE IPO on havelock sold out  

For now. We helped run up the price after switching the passthru to a public offering instead of private

[adamstgBit]

my calculation are dead wrong.
their are actually 100,000,000 shares, 90% of which is held by the owner, 10% of which was sold as IPO

Based on current profits, 1000 shares will earn .0299 BTC monthly (0.3588 BTC yearly) which is roughly a 8.79% annual dividend yield at IPO prices.

not as HOT as i thought but still, a good place to park some coins  

If its only about dividends/passive income, then you're getting a much better deal parking your coins in RCKE:BFRF ( https://www.therocktrading.com/en/offers/BFRF ) ±12% per annum paid monthly and they guarantee buyback at 0.97 (you risk ±3% to gain ±12% / year).

https://www.therocktrading.com/en/funds/listdividends?id=RETF

they haven't paid out a dividend since like 14-Jul-2011! lol wtf...

[Grant]

https://www.therocktrading.com/en/funds/listdividends?id=RETF

they haven't paid out a dividend since like 14-Jul-2011! lol wtf...

That's RETF, which is a "marketmaker fund" that rarely flips a profit.

The one i mentioned is BFRF, not RETF. Has paid one each month since its IPO started (the total amounts are smaller in the beginning because less bonds were outstanding, but per bond amounts are always 0.01): https://www.therocktrading.com/en/funds/listdividends?id=BFRF

[adamstgBit]

https://www.therocktrading.com/en/funds/listdividends?id=RETF

they haven't paid out a dividend since like 14-Jul-2011! lol wtf...

That's RETF, which is a "marketmaker fund" that rarely flips a profit.

The one i mentioned is BFRF, not RETF. Has paid one each month since its IPO started (the total amounts are smaller in the beginning because less bonds were outstanding, but per bond amounts are always 0.01): https://www.therocktrading.com/en/funds/listdividends?id=BFRF

Company Prospectus
The Rock is pleased to introduce Bitcoin Fixed Return Bond.
You may buy on our exchange our bond at a nominal price of 1 bitcoin per unit.

We will pay a fixed monthly dividend of 1%

Total Issue: 1000 units (1000 Bitcoins)
Guarantee buy back at 0.97 Bitcoin cents

PONZI! and not just any Ponzi, a low yield Ponzi...

its not bad returns... but like wtf do they do?

[Bugpowder]

I'm thinking of buying some S.DICE shares,and so I'm trying to get an estimate of the bonds annual yield

100 shares = 0.001% of all shares
assuming dividend pay out of 1,000BTC / month to share holders = 0.01BTC dividend pay out / month for 100 shares
100 shares cost ~0.4, so an investment of 0.4BTC will yield 0.12BTC a year ~30% annual yield

not bad, eh?

should i hit the buy button?  

my calculation are dead wrong.
their are actually 100,000,000 shares, 90% of which is held by the owner, 10% of which was sold as IPO

Based on current profits, 1000 shares will earn .0299 BTC monthly (0.3588 BTC yearly) which is roughly a 8.79% annual dividend yield at IPO prices.

not as HOT as i thought but still, a good place to park some coins  

Your math is still wrong.  Earnings are ~10,000/month on 530,000 betting volume.  Only 1,000/mo currently gets paid out to MPEX shareholders, since the float is 10% of total stock.

30% return a year, assuming you don't reinvest and no growth (BTW, 150,000 coins bet in the first 3 days of this month vs. 530,000 all of last month).

Also, you can't ignore the stock valuation growth.  In the last month the stock value has gone from 0.0034 to a peak of 0.0048 (41% gain).  Currently trading below .0048 for the moment, but that won't last long.

-Bug

[sunnankar]

30% return a year, assuming you don't reinvest and no growth (BTW, 150,000 coins bet in the first 3 days of this month vs. 530,000 all of last month).

Despite the threadjack, let's get back on topic to the hugely undervalued SD.

150k in 3 days compared to 530k last month which was relative to 180k in Nov.

Dec was up 190% over Nov. And Jan is 10% over and already 28% up on Dec's volume so it is on track to be up another 180%+ month over month.

Imagine if its another 3.2% luck month like Dec. That would be earnings of 48k and a dividend of 4,800BTC or 180% higher than Dec's.

Then, it could be a -% luck month!

Either way, it should be interesting.