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[TReano]

The minute it is no longer an inarguable fact that US economic data has been so good, that US recovery is so real, and that US FED will absolutely raise or at least keep rates steady ; the minute institutional investors start expecting real risk that the FED might instead actually *lower* rates

TLDR this global climate of risk aversion means USD down, EUR up (mostly because US down), GBP up (a bit less, though, for this reason, chiefly), JPY up (risk-off safe haven), CHF up (risk-off safe haven) Wheat neutral, Oil up & down (for many reasons), CAD therefore also up & down (tied to oil), AUD & NZD down (commodities-tied currencies), Gold up (risk-off store of value), Stocks down (risk-off), Bonds up (risk-off - but eventually down too, when/if things get really ugly). So, extremely simple then? Not so fast

Thx Post-Cosmic, for your great input!

What you have described is the general view on the market.

For Forex: We are currently at a race to the bottom. Everybody wants a weaker currency so in the end all the giant money programs lose their weakening effect against each other and become neutral on the market effect or even create the opposite effect (BoJ going for negative interest rates and gaining a stronger JPY as a result) etc.

IF the FED would start raising their interest rates to normal at this point (theoretically they. Economy data is looking good compared to the rest of the world). BUT if they rise interest rates further they would simply extinguish their growth potential because there is no other Central bank following a hawkish few currently. (Maybe the BoE but not really.)

We are currently at a  risk aversion  situation which simply means every position that is considered risky is getting closed. So stock markets fall and it has a cascading effect.

[TReano]

What a volatile day... Crazy how fast everything is moving and how aggressively...


Anybody caught some good swings in the last session?


Edit: The USD/Japanese Yen building up a really strong bearish momentum.. Amazing. Here the chart updates:



Old chart 3 days ago posted



current chart. Over 2,5% decline without any noticeable pullbacks yet. Keep in Mind that many people trade with 50x-200x leverage often. Trades like these are what every trader is waiting for all day. Here it is developing still.


Also: I am surprised how many people already contacted me to be added to the Mailing list, nice to see that so many people are interested

[Post-Cosmic]

What a volatile day... Crazy how fast everything is moving and how aggressively...


Anybody caught some good swings in the last session?


Edit: The USD/Japanese Yen building up a really strong bearish momentum.. Amazing. Here the chart updates:



Old chart 3 days ago posted



current chart. Over 2,5% decline without any noticeable pullbacks yet. Keep in Mind that many people trade with 50x-200x leverage often. Trades like these are what every trader is waiting for all day. Here it is developing still.


Also: I am surprised how many people already contacted me to be added to the Mailing list, nice to see that so many people are interested

Yea..... Didn't expect the bear market to continue so fast, thought this little EURUSD 1.13XX->1.116X's dump we had earlier today would last & form a floor for at least a couple days, not just reverse completely in full USD/Equities-bear-mode 5 minutes later.. wtf.

Took a haircut - had to make a new demo / Trade Explorer (old one had high spreads anyway & undercapitalized/overrisking vs. broker's minimum Futures-CFD's trade size values) ;/

Good thing I'm still on demo - my non-demo funds aren't as exposed & also only for very short time periods, so they didn't get hit by this reversal ;p

It'd be hard, but extremely profitable, to catch this knife..but w/ this much downward momentum, it almost certainly needs some floor support build-up around 112 USDYEN before it can bounce seriously (temporarily, of course - it wouldn't reach the previous highs from last year..that time is gone) - Except in the case of a spike downward just a bit too violent, that might trigger a BoJ intervention, which would definitely make movements much more parabolic than even they've been lately ;o

Yen pairs offer insane recurring micro-ranging/scalp bounce mechanisms on every large & medium sized move, it's like clockwork..Just have to be cautious to exit right after a few pips' profit each time & take the loss on the odd time that it just keeps going without retracing.

[enhu]

 don't you think a breakout is going to happen on EURUSD 1.14XX, weeks ago i see this as a resistant.

Does H&S Pattern mean a bear trend is coming even when its on 1 hour or 5 minute chart? if h&s forms in the 5 minute chart, could it mean bear ion the next few five minutes?

[TReano]

don't you think a breakout is going to happen on EURUSD 1.14XX, weeks ago i see this as a resistant.

Does H&S Pattern mean a bear trend is coming even when its on 1 hour or 5 minute chart? if h&s forms in the 5 minute chart, could it mean bear ion the next few five minutes?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the 5minute chart. If you want to get a really good entry you can use the 5minute chart. But I wouldn't look for patterns in these time frames, it's like a coinflip so not what we want when trading. I would suggest the 30min chart if you are trading intraday.

In the end the trend defining chart is the 4h or Daily most of the time.


Head & Shoulders (Also reversed H&S) patterns are the best strategy to look for a bigger trend reversal WITH follow through after it breaks. It can happen on a smaller time scale like the 30minute as well, but if they print on the 4h or even like in the UJ case on a daily chart over the time period of 14 months it's when the Trend becomes most significant and the strongest.


The sad thing is: the majority of retail traders have no idea what they are doing. I was observing the positing which are published by some broker and it's a total mess. Retail traders are longing the shit out of USDJPY and shorting the shit out of EURUSD. UJ peaked at 76% LONG yesterday.... I am amazed how many bad traders are out there.. It's not like they are starting to get long now, they are constantly longing UJ all the way down from the peak.

Here the current positioning for retail traders:



About EURUSD:
here my current chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HuC5UZmP/

The reason why the Euro is not strengthening as rapidly as the Yen does is because it's technically not free to fly like UJ is. Look at the bigger picture, this is the break of a Multi year Bull trend in UJ and the USD in general (Look up the DXY chart on TW for the dollar Index). This could very well be the peak of the trend and the reversal.

The trend is overall very bullish for EU. It just broke out of the bigger downtrend-line (orange line) once we get above the last big high from 1.17 we could see EU picking up momentum, unless the ECB stops this rally with massive QE (Also BoJ will do everything to weaken their currency further.)

But unless the central banks react in a drastic way the weak USD will continue. Also in this case buy the rumors (the FED might hike interest rates rumors started in started around 2014 and) sell the news (actual rate hike of 0.25 points) which was the peak . If the world economy doesn't recover very soon I don't see this turning back up again.


If you trade you should always take a look at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out. especially in Forex trends can get very strong and last for a very long period of time.

Never try to pick tops/bottoms just buy into the trend at a good timing is my suggestion.

[TReano]

Yen pairs offer insane recurring micro-ranging/scalp bounce mechanisms on every large & medium sized move, it's like clockwork..Just have to be cautious to exit right after a few pips' profit each time & take the loss on the odd time that it just keeps going without retracing.

why scalp it? if you bought into the trend yesterday you would have been up over 2% today. We dropped right from 115$ to 111$... Always move your s/l to break even once it breaks down to another level. It could bounce hard at any time but I wouldn't bet it even thought the volatility right now is high. I simply do not trade against the trend.

Always take partially profits on the way down so if you get stopped out at break even you still made money on the peaks down. 111$ would have been the ideal take profit target.


It's Thursday, markets often print a weekly low. It doesn't mean it will go up from there but at least it should go lower.

[TReano]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/697845738252935169 -> "Russia PM warns foreign offensive in Syria could spark 'world war'"
Really concerning news. This would just fuel the dumping on the markets. Gold should spike even higher.

The Russian PM statement  is related to this:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/general-saudi-arabia-set-deploy-troops-syria-160205042542486.html

[Post-Cosmic]

Yen pairs offer insane recurring micro-ranging/scalp bounce mechanisms on every large & medium sized move, it's like clockwork..Just have to be cautious to exit right after a few pips' profit each time & take the loss on the odd time that it just keeps going without retracing.

why scalp it? if you bought into the trend yesterday you would have been up over 2% today. We dropped right from 115$ to 111$... Always move your s/l to break even once it breaks down to another level. It could bounce hard at any time but I wouldn't bet it even thought the volatility right now is high. I simply do not trade against the trend.

Always take partially profits on the way down so if you get stopped out at break even you still made money on the peaks down. 111$ would have been the ideal take profit target.


It's Thursday, markets often print a weekly low. It doesn't mean it will go up from there but at least it should go lower.

You just went full equities-beartard, zerohedge gold-bug-degenerate style.

Never go full-beartard.

How much $ did you lose when Kuroda BoJ-fucked ya last night, w/ your 'trend is Enshrined By God - Follow or Die' thing..? <3

[www.FXProBitcoin.com]

As we say on Wall Street:  Buy the rumor, sell the news

and: buy low, sell high.

Easy, right? So why cant people do it?  Why do they always buy high and sell low?  Because of psychology.  The more expensive something is, the more they want it.

[Post-Cosmic]

[...]

and: buy low, sell high.

Easy, right? So why cant people do it?  Why do they always buy high and sell low?

Because they get narrow-minded into worshipping a single trend as The Holy One like TReano^ up there & end up buying ever higher, & selling ever lower.

The less contrarian you are, the more trend-worshipper - the more you'll get stuck buying high, selling low.

[TReano]

[...]

and: buy low, sell high.

Easy, right? So why cant people do it?  Why do they always buy high and sell low?

Because they get narrow-minded into worshipping a single trend as The Holy One like TReano^ up there & end up buying ever higher, & selling ever lower.

The less contrarian you are, the more trend-worshipper - the more you'll get stuck buying high, selling low.

I still don't get what you trying to express with your "worshipper" thing? ... I made great money the last couple weeks. Surely I also have bad trades where I get stopped out. But overall I am doing good.


There is very often a trend in the market. Short term (Intraday) or even longer term on the bigger scale. Just look at the S&P 500 chart. It's a butter clean over 6 year lasting Bull-Trend without any major pullbacks. It's not made up or some religion thing that happened. Then we had a bit over 1 year of sideways not really making any new highs/lows. Now we are in a strong downtrend, so I am looking for good short entries rather then longs (speaking about stock markets/indices).
Sure there is a possibility I am wrong and long a top/short a bottom I don't even care if I do because I have developed a plan which has proven to be profitable overall. If I am wrong I get stopped out, if not I make money on the trade.  There is really no magic when trading, it's simply something you have to learn an adjust to your personality.


Trends are everywhere, fashion, movies, companies and of course very strongly in the stock/forex market.. You just have to open your eyes and act smart when trading. If you are saying something like "trend-worshipper" you just prove that you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about.

[TReano]

Heyo! 2 charts for next week to take a look at:

__________________________


Gold (XAUUSD) - Short-term + Possible long term entry :

Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8ztqZa4k/

• Situation overall didn't change. We are still in heavy risk-aversion. Looking to buy pull-backs
• Since we reversed at the top of the bearish channel, we could see some profit-taking here
• The expansion and the possible escalation of the Syrian war could propel Gold even higher
• If we break out to the topside the area above 1400$ could be a longer term target
• It's hard to define a reasonable stop (with good risk reward) if you go in at this price level

__________________________


Euro (EURUSD)

Chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/8HjlLyNn/

• Even thought the Euro had a very bullish break-out to the topside, we reversed right at the trendline coming from April 2014.
• Should see a pullback as well the 1.11 area should be watched closely to take profits if you are short / go long for another Leg up
• If we go up at some point again I would look at 1.15 & 1.17 as targets.
• Always keep in mind that the Euro is a weak currency compared to the USD and the ECB is not happy about this development. Therefor always keep an eye on the calendar to avoid surprises.
• bullish as long as we are above 1.11, might as well touch the trendline if we go there straight.

__________________________
Also: Sorry, if you won't get an E-Mail update next week. I am really busy right now. I don't even know if I will be able to trade the next trading week. But I will answer questions if you have any.

[bit1]

This guys could have min. 5 big monitors targeting markets.       Good thread.

[enhu]

don't you think a breakout is going to happen on EURUSD 1.14XX, weeks ago i see this as a resistant.

Does H&S Pattern mean a bear trend is coming even when its on 1 hour or 5 minute chart? if h&s forms in the 5 minute chart, could it mean bear ion the next few five minutes?

I wouldn't pay too much attention to the 5minute chart. If you want to get a really good entry you can use the 5minute chart. But I wouldn't look for patterns in these time frames, it's like a coinflip so not what we want when trading. I would suggest the 30min chart if you are trading intraday.

In the end the trend defining chart is the 4h or Daily most of the time.


Head & Shoulders (Also reversed H&S) patterns are the best strategy to look for a bigger trend reversal WITH follow through after it breaks. It can happen on a smaller time scale like the 30minute as well, but if they print on the 4h or even like in the UJ case on a daily chart over the time period of 14 months it's when the Trend becomes most significant and the strongest.


The sad thing is: the majority of retail traders have no idea what they are doing. I was observing the positing which are published by some broker and it's a total mess. Retail traders are longing the shit out of USDJPY and shorting the shit out of EURUSD. UJ peaked at 76% LONG yesterday.... I am amazed how many bad traders are out there.. It's not like they are starting to get long now, they are constantly longing UJ all the way down from the peak.

Here the current positioning for retail traders:



About EURUSD:
here my current chart
https://www.tradingview.com/x/HuC5UZmP/

The reason why the Euro is not strengthening as rapidly as the Yen does is because it's technically not free to fly like UJ is. Look at the bigger picture, this is the break of a Multi year Bull trend in UJ and the USD in general (Look up the DXY chart on TW for the dollar Index). This could very well be the peak of the trend and the reversal.

The trend is overall very bullish for EU. It just broke out of the bigger downtrend-line (orange line) once we get above the last big high from 1.17 we could see EU picking up momentum, unless the ECB stops this rally with massive QE (Also BoJ will do everything to weaken their currency further.)

But unless the central banks react in a drastic way the weak USD will continue. Also in this case buy the rumors (the FED might hike interest rates rumors started in started around 2014 and) sell the news (actual rate hike of 0.25 points) which was the peak . If the world economy doesn't recover very soon I don't see this turning back up again.


If you trade you should always take a look at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out. especially in Forex trends can get very strong and last for a very long period of time.

Never try to pick tops/bottoms just buy into the trend at a good timing is my suggestion.

Looking at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out and going to daily and 4 hour chart is more like the 3 ducks trading strategy.
I have no issue trading on 4 hour chart but waiting can mean I have to constantly monitor the charts whether I'm losing pips or not. I have the tendency to exit a position when i see something didn't went well after 5 minute. which strategy can you suggestion for me?

[TReano]

Looking at the bigger picture on a weekly chart and zoom out and going to daily and 4 hour chart is more like the 3 ducks trading strategy.
I have no issue trading on 4 hour chart but waiting can mean I have to constantly monitor the charts whether I'm losing pips or not. I have the tendency to exit a position when i see something didn't went well after 5 minute. which strategy can you suggestion for me?

Hey!

It depends a lot what type of personality you are in the end. You have to find a way to always feel good about your trade when you enter it. Some people are not patience enough to let a trade go for for longer then a day. These people should adjust their strategy and look for potential break outs on a 30min chart.

EurUsd was a great example for this recently:

Bigger time scale chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/g5YE0MAB/ (explaining the range, with lower highs)

It was stuck in a range constantly making lower highs and higher lows. (Yellow circles). You could have simply gone long once we closed the first 30min candle above the last peak high which was made. It can always be a fakeout but most of the time it will work, especially if it is in the direction of the bigger trend (EU is the whole time kinda bullish since the big spike). You stops have to be a smart in these situation. Because if it breaks it you often have a pullback to the level of the breakout. Try to get in at these pullbacks with a decent risk reward ratio so if you get stopped out 2 out of the 3 times you would still have made profits in the end.

Here the 30min chart with explanations in it.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/UT5sVwXe/



The problem with this strategy is you have to spend a lot of time always observing a lot of pairs for break-outs.


You can also read more about break out trading here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/08/trading-breakouts.asp

[TReano]

EURUSD:




-- right in the area to either bounce and aim for last year high around 1.17 or to at least stall the recent bullrun.


-- same with Gold, but the situation over there looks stronger right now and it already bounced a bit. Well. looks really bullish.
RSI staying high in the trend for both which is a bullish indicator.



Good Luck! Maybe we will get another nice bull run over the next week for both EURUSD and GOLD(XAUUSD).

[Panxora_COO]

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[Panxora_COO]

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[TReano]

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Really great news from simplefx!

They keep on developing constantly! I hope 1broker will catch up soon. I really liked them back in the days but they somehow stopped developing completely.


--> https://simplefx.com/

[conandobtc]

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