280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?)

[creativex]

You are.  This is not about delivering in a certain timeframe.  This about about BFL being a scam.

100 BTC that BFL will deliver ASICs.  I only put the 2013 timeframe on there so there's a definitive endpoint to the bet, even though it will be over long before then.  YOU are the one that is unwilling to make a wager, you want to add caveats and escape clauses, not me.  I want a simple wager:

100 BTC says BFL will deliver ASICs in 2013.  Simple, easy and to the point.  The fact that you won't bet any significant amount to back up your claim is a giant sign above your head screaming that you are lying.  You won't make the bet though, because you know you will lose.  So your statements about BFL being a scam are a lie, which makes Bryan Micon a liar.

If you're so confident then take the bet for mid march. Holy sh1t man that's 5 months after your original shipping date. Surely you can guarantee that?!?

[MrTeal]

Any comment on my bet proposal, 1:1 on units in customer's hands by the end of March and 350+MH/J?

you want to wager that BFL will ship by end of march?  or will not?

Yes, I would be taking the side that BFL will deliver. Obviously I wouldn't expect you to take the pro-BFL side.

[Micon]

Also willing to bet BFL will not ship by 3/15 (ides of March)  Sgt Spike

If anyone has offers, such as "hey Micon, i'll bet you my 50 coins vs. your 25 coins that BFL ships at least 5 customers 350 Mhash/Joule+ ASIC devices pictured, tested, and working by the end of March"  go ahead and throw them out here.

Don't let trolls in this thread deter you from offering something.  All bets made so far have been very Gentleman-like between the bettors.  Contrary to some early trolls, there is nothing wrong with putting something out there and having the other side say no.  Also, nothing wrong with quick negotiation of terms so both sides are happy with the bet (until it settles

so if anyone wants some near-term BFL will ship action, I'm open to suggestions and very much want to take the "BFL won't ship in near-term" side.

Edit: I read that backwards. Changes highlighted

Hell, I'll take you up on that if it's a serious offer.

I will bet my 25 BTC against your 50BTC 25BTC against your 25BTC that five different customers will have posted photographs and hashing results from working BFL ASIC units on Bitcointalk before the 1st of April (00:00 UTC), 2013. The devices must reach 350MH/J as per SgtSpike's bet. I will throw in the stipulation that if 5+ people post pictures and hashing stats of working devices but only one posts the more difficult to measure procedure from SgtSpike's bet (clamp meter on the DC input), that would be sufficient. If that is not acceptable, I would suggest substituting 350MH/s+ on the AC input as measured by a Kill-A-Watt meter as an acceptable standard, as it is actually more difficult to achieve.

Interested?

Sorry, this real-bet post got lost in the Zerlan troll noise on my radar. 

I am interested in this bet, and I think we will come to terms very quickly and have an escrow'd block-chain visible wager in a few hours.    I will Pm Cassiusus to generate us 2 invite codes.  I'm fine with your efficiency measurement, for the date why don't we meet in the middle at end-of-business on March 22nd?

[kayrice]

Just worth mentioning I think Josh is a default liar. One of these are true:

* He offered to bet coins he does not have. I am guilty of this too (as I do not
have 1 million BTC) while baiting him into this, but he's the COO of BFL and I'm
just a dipshit on the forum. He very quickly defaulted into saying he had the
coin and offered to bet it.

* OR he offered to bet coins that are from pre-orders or investment funds. How
else does he have 1 million BTC?

Of course he can't respond with the reason that he does not have this coin,
because this is the method he is using to intimidate others. He assumes he
has more capital than you.

[Inaba]

It's called hyperbole, look it up, Kayrice. 

[kayrice]

Are you interested in taking a bet below 2000 BTC, or only interested in intimidating others?

[MrTeal]

Also willing to bet BFL will not ship by 3/15 (ides of March)  Sgt Spike

If anyone has offers, such as "hey Micon, i'll bet you my 50 coins vs. your 25 coins that BFL ships at least 5 customers 350 Mhash/Joule+ ASIC devices pictured, tested, and working by the end of March"  go ahead and throw them out here.

Don't let trolls in this thread deter you from offering something.  All bets made so far have been very Gentleman-like between the bettors.  Contrary to some early trolls, there is nothing wrong with putting something out there and having the other side say no.  Also, nothing wrong with quick negotiation of terms so both sides are happy with the bet (until it settles

so if anyone wants some near-term BFL will ship action, I'm open to suggestions and very much want to take the "BFL won't ship in near-term" side.

Edit: I read that backwards. Changes highlighted

Hell, I'll take you up on that if it's a serious offer.

I will bet my 25 BTC against your 50BTC 25BTC against your 25BTC that five different customers will have posted photographs and hashing results from working BFL ASIC units on Bitcointalk before the 1st of April (00:00 UTC), 2013. The devices must reach 350MH/J as per SgtSpike's bet. I will throw in the stipulation that if 5+ people post pictures and hashing stats of working devices but only one posts the more difficult to measure procedure from SgtSpike's bet (clamp meter on the DC input), that would be sufficient. If that is not acceptable, I would suggest substituting 350MH/s+ on the AC input as measured by a Kill-A-Watt meter as an acceptable standard, as it is actually more difficult to achieve.

Interested?

Sorry, this real-bet post got lost in the Zerlan troll noise on my radar. 

I am interested in this bet, and I think we will come to terms very quickly and have an escrow'd block-chain visible wager in a few hours.    I will Pm Cassiusus to generate us 2 invite codes.  I'm fine with your efficiency measurement, for the date why don't we meet in the middle at end-of-business on March 22nd?

Hmm... I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I thought pulling it forward to before April 1st from the July 1st of the previous bet (also, my mistake it was mrb, not SgtSpike) was already significant enough. Even if BFL isn't a scam and their chips do come back working I think it's a tossup whether anyone gets a unit by the middle of March. There's already a lot of risk from the fact they very well could be a scam, or even if they're not the very real chance that their kludge of trying to modify their existing QFN designed ASIC to be a flipchip midway through the design cycle might fail and they need to do a respin and no one sees anything for another 3 months. I don't want to cut it so tight that tiny things like we didn't make it to the post office tonight or we forgot to order the right boxes push it back a week and I lose based on that, at least not for a 1:1 bet. Especially not when the thrust of the bet is are the BFL ASICs real or not.

I'll have to read up a little more on the cassacius process since I've only done a cursory read through on it, but it seems like a good way to do escrow on the surface so I'm all for that.

[Inaba]

Are you interested in taking a bet below 2000 BTC, or only interested in intimidating others?

Umm... seriously... what part of this was unclear?

[kayrice]

The part where you say anytime in the year 2013...

[Micon]

Also willing to bet BFL will not ship by 3/15 (ides of March)  Sgt Spike

If anyone has offers, such as "hey Micon, i'll bet you my 50 coins vs. your 25 coins that BFL ships at least 5 customers 350 Mhash/Joule+ ASIC devices pictured, tested, and working by the end of March"  go ahead and throw them out here.

Don't let trolls in this thread deter you from offering something.  All bets made so far have been very Gentleman-like between the bettors.  Contrary to some early trolls, there is nothing wrong with putting something out there and having the other side say no.  Also, nothing wrong with quick negotiation of terms so both sides are happy with the bet (until it settles

so if anyone wants some near-term BFL will ship action, I'm open to suggestions and very much want to take the "BFL won't ship in near-term" side.

Edit: I read that backwards. Changes highlighted

Hell, I'll take you up on that if it's a serious offer.

I will bet my 25 BTC against your 50BTC 25BTC against your 25BTC that five different customers will have posted photographs and hashing results from working BFL ASIC units on Bitcointalk before the 1st of April (00:00 UTC), 2013. The devices must reach 350MH/J as per SgtSpike's bet. I will throw in the stipulation that if 5+ people post pictures and hashing stats of working devices but only one posts the more difficult to measure procedure from SgtSpike's bet (clamp meter on the DC input), that would be sufficient. If that is not acceptable, I would suggest substituting 350MH/s+ on the AC input as measured by a Kill-A-Watt meter as an acceptable standard, as it is actually more difficult to achieve.

Interested?

Sorry, this real-bet post got lost in the Zerlan troll noise on my radar. 

I am interested in this bet, and I think we will come to terms very quickly and have an escrow'd block-chain visible wager in a few hours.    I will Pm Cassiusus to generate us 2 invite codes.  I'm fine with your efficiency measurement, for the date why don't we meet in the middle at end-of-business on March 22nd?

Hmm... I'm not sure I'm comfortable with that. I thought pulling it forward to before April 1st from the July 1st of the previous bet (also, my mistake it was mrb, not SgtSpike) was already significant enough. Even if BFL isn't a scam and their chips do come back working I think it's a tossup whether anyone gets a unit by the middle of March. There's already a lot of risk from the fact they very well could be a scam, or even if they're not the very real chance that their kludge of trying to modify their existing QFN designed ASIC to be a flipchip midway through the design cycle might fail and they need to do a respin and no one sees anything for another 3 months. I don't want to cut it so tight that tiny things like we didn't make it to the post office tonight or we forgot to order the right boxes push it back a week and I lose based on that, at least not for a 1:1 bet. Especially not when the thrust of the bet is are the BFL ASICs real or not.

I'll have to read up a little more on the cassacius process since I've only done a cursory read through on it, but it seems like a good way to do escrow on the surface so I'm all for that.

Mr Teal you drive a hard bargain and I respect you for that. 

April 1st it is.  Read up on C's escrow system, I have already PM'd him asking for 2 invite codes.  When you are comfortable with the escrow system & the terms of the wager please post here and we'll move forward, generate the address, and both fire 25 coins into it.

[Zedster]

BFL loan me 25 BTC plz! 

[casascius]

MrTeal, if you can provide me your PGP key and/or your e-mail address, I can send you an escrow invite code.

[MrTeal]

MrTeal, if you can provide me your PGP key and/or your e-mail address, I can send you an escrow invite code.

What a coincidence, I was just on your profile to send you a PM asking about PGP when I saw this post. I don't have a PGP key, is it required or just recommended for this process?

[casascius]

Invites sent to both MrTeal and micon via e-mail.

PGP not needed, but useful if you wanted me to PM you the code via the forum instead of e-mailing it.  This prevents mods from having the power to exercise escrow agent authority and force an outcome, a power they probably don't really want in the first place.

The more I do this, the more I feel I should offer some web service, where for 0.1 BTC, I automatically issue a pair of escrow invitation codes... PGP-encrypted and/or e-mailed to the parties of your choice.  They could pre-select some other parties to be prospective dispute resolution agents.  This would allow people to engage in do-it-yourself escrow transactions all day long, and then I (or others) could charge fees for dispute resolution services, but only if there was a dispute... no dispute, no fee (other than the 0.1 BTC).

Of course, I have already released a program to do this for free... the difference being that for 0.1 BTC, you'd have the assurance that only a third party has both of the escrow codes, and is willing and able to make sure they go to a properly selected arbitration provider when necessary.

[Micon]

Invites sent to both MrTeal and micon via e-mail.

PGP not needed, but useful if you wanted me to PM you the code via the forum instead of e-mailing it.  This prevents mods from having the power to exercise escrow agent authority and force an outcome, a power they probably don't really want in the first place.

The more I do this, the more I feel I should offer some web service, where for 0.1 BTC, I automatically issue a pair of escrow invitation codes... PGP-encrypted and/or e-mailed to the parties of your choice.  They could pre-select some other parties to be prospective dispute resolution agents.  This would allow people to engage in do-it-yourself escrow transactions all day long, and then I (or others) could charge fees for dispute resolution services, but only if there was a dispute... no dispute, no fee (other than the 0.1 BTC).

Of course, I have already released a program to do this for free... the difference being that for 0.1 BTC, you'd have the assurance that only a third party has both of the escrow codes, and is willing and able to make sure they go to a properly selected arbitration provider when necessary.

At the current price of BTC I would pay .1 every time and love the service and piece of mind it gives.

thanks again for doing this for us gamblers.  I know we also help you test this new software, but I also know you give away said software for free, just like it should be, to directly make other humans more happy.  I appreciate that very much, and btc bettors for years to come will enjoy your system.  Ty for being awesome Mike.

[MrTeal]

So, at this juncture I've gotten my invite, and generated a payment invitation (prescript einvp).

I would send this to Micon, along with the address for the bet. I would ensure that casacius does not have this payment invitation. Once the funds are there, they can be reclaimed with any two of three parties between myself, Micon and Casascius.

[Micon]

So, at this juncture I've gotten my invite, and generated a payment invitation (prescript einvp).

I would send this to Micon, along with the address for the bet. I would ensure that casacius does not have this payment invitation. Once the funds are there, they can be reclaimed with any two of three parties between myself, Micon and Casascius.

indeed my good man.  I have confirmed via PM that we are generating the same address with Casascius' very cool "btc-address" that amongst many other things that I don't understand is a very cool escrow system.  IMO needs to be re-branded.  "Casascius' Escrow Tools & Other public key / private key BTC shenanigans" is the best name IMO.

Ready to fire 25 coins at this when you are MrTeal.  Good luck and once again thanks for handling the betting process like a gentleman.  I think this thread, regardless of outcome, will serve as a nice example of how the betting process with BTC can work.  This thread also has a good example of how not to conduct yourself when wagering. 

1BXEoc3tKs9APcZVEi5CLUDPgt3Xsw95gm  is the address MrTeal, it is no problem to post it publicly, if all this bicoin and SHA256 is sound, there is no relation or any reason to fear posting this BTC address.  In fact, it shows ppl publicly when each of us hit the hash and IMO makes these types of bets very, very cool when done in bitcoin.

[MrTeal]

Sent on my end.
https://blockchain.info/tx/62f558262ac319e1e6da7767ae18b393cd0c1f934c65d0fcf83350a89f2af568

[becoin]

Sent on my end.

I don't understand what this bet exactly is about?

[Micon]

Sent on my end.
https://blockchain.info/tx/62f558262ac319e1e6da7767ae18b393cd0c1f934c65d0fcf83350a89f2af568

shipped here as well.  I sent 25.00042000 

thanks for being a gentleman on this wager MrTeal.  Whoever wins, I think you, me, mrb, and sgtspike have set a really good example how to approach and interact with someone to place a legitimate, escrow'ed bet.