280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?)

[Micon]

You are.  This is not about delivering in a certain timeframe.  This about about BFL being a scam.

100 BTC that BFL will deliver ASICs.  I only put the 2013 timeframe on there so there's a definitive endpoint to the bet, even though it will be over long before then.  YOU are the one that is unwilling to make a wager, you want to add caveats and escape clauses, not me.  I want a simple wager:

100 BTC says BFL will deliver ASICs in 2013.  Simple, easy and to the point.  The fact that you won't bet any significant amount to back up your claim is a giant sign above your head screaming that you are lying.  You won't make the bet though, because you know you will lose.  So your statements about BFL being a scam are a lie, which makes Bryan Micon a liar.

1)  You posted this timeline yourself 2/5/13 on the BFL forums: 

[ https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172 ]

Here's a quick update:

We are expecting the chips on the 8th. The Fab is still maintaining that it will be the 8th, but it could be earlier than that. We are planning on the 8th though, we will have the chips sent via overnight express to our bumping and packaging facilities in California (We are not going with the North Carolina facility, as they could not meet our timeline). We are negotiating with the California bumping facility to get tooled up and ready to complete the bumping process as fast as possible. We are targeting them for being ready to bump the chips on the 14th, but it could be as late as the 18th. It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them where I will likely be couriering them to our assembly facility.

At that point it will take less than a day to assemble some boards, where I'll send the boards to a couple test facilities to make sure everything is kosher. This step will probably take 1 - 2 days, but may take less as we tweak things. Assuming everything checks out (and we have no reason to believe it won't), we will give the assembly house the go ahead to mount the rest of the chips, which will take less than 24 hours, where I will carry them back and/or overnight express them to Kansas City and we will begin assembly and shipping operations.

So it's looking like the week of the 17th for shipping, probably a bit later in the week unless the bumping house really pulls it together, we might be able to ship as early at the 18th, but that is pretty optimistic, more likely is around the 22nd or so.

2)  I'm giving you until March 15th to get 5 working BFL ASIC chips in the hands of customers, meeting your publicly advertised specs.  I am willing to bet 20 coins, as I have demonstrated in this thread 3 or 4 times, most recently just now. 

3)  I have backed down from a Vague, 2000 coin bet from Josh Zerlan that gives BFL all of 2013,

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it. 

[MrTeal]

Sent on my end.
https://blockchain.info/tx/62f558262ac319e1e6da7767ae18b393cd0c1f934c65d0fcf83350a89f2af568

shipped here as well.  I sent 25.00042000 

thanks for being a gentleman on this wager MrTeal.  Whoever wins, I think you, me, mrb, and sgtspike have set a really good example how to approach and interact with someone to place a legitimate, escrow'ed bet. 

Agreed. I won't say good luck to you (since obviously I wouldn't really mean it ), but thanks for making the betting process easy.

[SgtSpike]

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it. 

It doesn't scare me.  Josh isn't taking your bet on principle. You've been calling BFL a scam all this time, that they were just going to take everyone's money and never deliver anything.  And now, it appears you're changing your mind, and you believe BFL WILL deliver something, just that it might be delayed further.  Josh wants you to admit that you were wrong about BFL being a scam and that you now only want to bet on how soon they will deliver.

So, you're trying to call Josh out on the ship date.  Josh is trying to call you out on BFL not being a scam.  And neither side is willing to give.  You both have valid points that the other side isn't willing to take the bet, because, theoretically, either bet would match the beliefs of both of you.  But both of you want the other side to admit that they were wrong about their initial beliefs.

[creativex]

Is it possible to your way of thinking Spike that BFL could eventually ship AND be a scam?

This is a sincere question btw, you seem a likable enough fella, I'm just curious.

I simply cannot rectify their excuses as they do not add up for me. I believe they had nothing done when they began taking orders, never had the ability to ship in 2012, and have unfairly disadvantaged both FPGA vendors and competing ASIC vendors with their dishonesty.

[Micon]

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it. 

It doesn't scare me.  Josh isn't taking your bet on principle. You've been calling BFL a scam all this time, that they were just going to take everyone's money and never deliver anything.  And now, it appears you're changing your mind, and you believe BFL WILL deliver something, just that it might be delayed further.  Josh wants you to admit that you were wrong about BFL being a scam and that you now only want to bet on how soon they will deliver.

So, you're trying to call Josh out on the ship date.  Josh is trying to call you out on BFL not being a scam.  And neither side is willing to give.  You both have valid points that the other side isn't willing to take the bet, because, theoretically, either bet would match the beliefs of both of you.  But both of you want the other side to admit that they were wrong about their initial beliefs.

I respectfully disagree.

1)  based on Josh's own posted timeline, he should easily win the bet I offered. 

2)  based on JoshZerlan.com, if Josh Zerlan believed his own timeline he would likely jump at the chance to win 20 of my coins.  Ask yourself that one - why wouldn't he just take my monies?

[kayrice]

Either way I think it's a fraudulent product offering while taking pre-order money. One way or another the ROI will not be realized by anyone touching BFL.

[Micon]

Is it possible to your way of thinking Spike that BFL could eventually ship AND be a scam?

This is a sincere question btw, you seem a likable enough fella, I'm just curious.

I simply cannot rectify their excuses as they do not add up for me. I believe they had nothing done when they began taking orders, never had the ability to ship in 2012, and have unfairly disadvantaged both FPGA vendors and competing ASIC vendors with their dishonesty.

this is a very good question, and will help solidify my beliefs about BFL:

1)  they totally used pre-order money as R&D monies.  The first whatever didn't work, so they gambled again.

2) http://news.yahoo.com/butterfly-labs-announces-next-generation-asic-lineup-054626776.html    This is a troubling press release.  Vague about who invested.  

3)  Sonny was convicted of Mail order fraud in 2010.  this doesn't mean the company is not gambling hard to try and make ASICs - I believe they are - but I also believe they are inept and doomed to fail.  

4)  the massive, and I mean massive advertising buys scare me the most - you haven't produced a product yet, but are taking in as much $$$ as you can.  that always smells scammy to me.

[cAPSLOCK]

I just have to testify...

I've been lurking along with this thread because I find the technology, software, drama, and bets interesting.

But this Josh guy who is a COO of BFL?

He comes of as a giant tool.  If I was a person who had spent money on one of these boxes in advance it would make me very uncomfortable seeing him prance around acting like this.

just my B.02

[SgtSpike]

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it. 

It doesn't scare me.  Josh isn't taking your bet on principle. You've been calling BFL a scam all this time, that they were just going to take everyone's money and never deliver anything.  And now, it appears you're changing your mind, and you believe BFL WILL deliver something, just that it might be delayed further.  Josh wants you to admit that you were wrong about BFL being a scam and that you now only want to bet on how soon they will deliver.

So, you're trying to call Josh out on the ship date.  Josh is trying to call you out on BFL not being a scam.  And neither side is willing to give.  You both have valid points that the other side isn't willing to take the bet, because, theoretically, either bet would match the beliefs of both of you.  But both of you want the other side to admit that they were wrong about their initial beliefs.

I respectfully disagree.

1)  based on Josh's own posted timeline, he should easily win the bet I offered. 

2)  based on JoshZerlan.com, if Josh Zerlan believed his own timeline he would likely jump at the chance to win 20 of my coins.  Ask yourself that one - why wouldn't he just take my monies?

To counter:

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

[SgtSpike]

I just have to testify...

I've been lurking along with this thread because I find the technology, software, drama, and bets interesting.

But this Josh guy who is a COO of BFL?

He comes of as a giant tool.  If I was a person who had spent money on one of these boxes in advance it would make me very uncomfortable seeing him prance around acting like this.

just my B.02

You know, I kind of felt the same way at first, but I actually appreciate someone who is willing to stand up for their company without worrying about any political-correctness or public-relations garbage...

[creativex]

...so when Josh says in early December that they still may ship in late December, then they still have nothing by mid February that doesn't bother you? Why are they still taking orders and advertising all over the place?

I find BFL's behavior and Josh's in particular very disturbing and untrustworthy, but I understand YMMV.

[SgtSpike]

...so when Josh says in early December that they still may ship in late December, then they still have nothing by mid February that doesn't bother you? Why are they still taking orders and advertising all over the place?

It doesn't bother me because it wasn't malicious.  He gave his best estimate based on the information he had available.  That the engineers took much longer than expected to complete the switch to BGA packaging wasn't his fault or something he could have predicted with certainty, at least as far as I can tell.

[Inaba]

4)  Josh Zerlan has backed down from a 20 coin bet that is within his posted timeline.  This should scare most of you with pre-orders: that the man posting the timeline won't bet 20 coins on the timeline he posted.  Oh yeah, and the 2nd independent ASIC maker started mining.   Meaning even if BFL did ship on the fairytale timeline that Zerlan is telling, they would come to market 3rd.  and remember Josh won't bet on it.  

It doesn't scare me.  Josh isn't taking your bet on principle. You've been calling BFL a scam all this time, that they were just going to take everyone's money and never deliver anything.  And now, it appears you're changing your mind, and you believe BFL WILL deliver something, just that it might be delayed further.  Josh wants you to admit that you were wrong about BFL being a scam and that you now only want to bet on how soon they will deliver.

So, you're trying to call Josh out on the ship date.  Josh is trying to call you out on BFL not being a scam.  And neither side is willing to give.  You both have valid points that the other side isn't willing to take the bet, because, theoretically, either bet would match the beliefs of both of you.  But both of you want the other side to admit that they were wrong about their initial beliefs.

I respectfully disagree.

1)  based on Josh's own posted timeline, he should easily win the bet I offered.  

2)  based on JoshZerlan.com, if Josh Zerlan believed his own timeline he would likely jump at the chance to win 20 of my coins.  Ask yourself that one - why wouldn't he just take my monies?

To counter:

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

Thank you SgtSpike.  You have summed up the entire problem with Bryan Micon's lying and scammy behavior in a simple post.  Of course he's back peddling and changing his tune now that it's painfully obvious to anyone with half a brain that BFL is no scam.  He's trying to astroturf his earlier stupidity by covering up the fact that he's claimed BFL is a scam and that we are going to run off with everyones money.  Bryan Micon is a liar and a scammer, end of story.  If he really believed what he was saying, as you say, he would jump at the chance to win nearly $60,000 US from me, since I am willing and able to escrow 2000 BTC.  Hell, I'm even willing to do 100 BTC but he won't take that bet, either, because he knows it's a losing bet and everything he's said is a lie.

[creativex]

...so when Josh says in early December that they still may ship in late December, then they still have nothing by mid February that doesn't bother you? Why are they still taking orders and advertising all over the place?

It doesn't bother me because it wasn't malicious.  He gave his best estimate based on the information he had available.  That the engineers took much longer than expected to complete the switch to BGA packaging wasn't his fault or something he could have predicted with certainty, at least as far as I can tell.

IC. I do not believe that engineers could be so grossly incompetent and you do. Fair enough. I can't accept the refraction problems, clock buffers, re-packaging and other missteps as actual events. If these are real engineering missteps and not lies then BFL should've fired a whole lot of people long ago, beginning with their COO.

[cAPSLOCK]

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

But Josh changed the terms of the bet quite a bit.  For one thing he changed the end date from this month or Mar 15th to December 31st 2013.

Also his device is transparent.  He is saying: "No, I will not take your carefully thought out 20BTC bet.  Instead I will counter with a different bet with different terms for 100x the amount you offered. And if you don't take it, then you are a liar.".

First of all this smells like a bluff.  But nonetheless noone is going to take a $50k bet with basically no terms in a couple of posts in a forum thread.  It's posturing.  It's obvious BS.

But I suppose it isn't obvious to everyone.

[SgtSpike]

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

But Josh changed the terms of the bet quite a bit.  For one thing he changed the end date from this month or Mar 15th to December 31st 2013.

Also his device is transparent.  He is saying: "No, I will not take your carefully thought out 20BTC bet.  Instead I will counter with a different bet with different terms for 100x the amount you offered. And if you don't take it, then you are a liar.".

First of all this smells like a bluff.  But nonetheless noone is going to take a $50k bet with basically no terms in a couple of posts in a forum thread.  It's posturing.  It's obvious BS.

But I suppose it isn't obvious to everyone.

It's obvious BS?  So you don't think BFL will ship before the end of 2013 either?  If that's the case, I'll take you up on that bet, any BTC amount you want (as long as I have that much).

Josh changed the terms of the bet because Micon has been stating that BFL is a scam from the start, saying that they'll never ship.  Micon doesn't believe that to be true anymore, and Josh is calling him out on it.  At this point, Micon is only willing to bet on WHEN BFL will deliver, not IF they will deliver, attempting to cover up the fact that he was wrong about them being an outright scam.

[MrTeal]

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

But Josh changed the terms of the bet quite a bit.  For one thing he changed the end date from this month or Mar 15th to December 31st 2013.

Also his device is transparent.  He is saying: "No, I will not take your carefully thought out 20BTC bet.  Instead I will counter with a different bet with different terms for 100x the amount you offered. And if you don't take it, then you are a liar.".

First of all this smells like a bluff.  But nonetheless noone is going to take a $50k bet with basically no terms in a couple of posts in a forum thread.  It's posturing.  It's obvious BS.

But I suppose it isn't obvious to everyone.

It's obvious BS?  So you don't think BFL will ship before the end of 2013 either?  If that's the case, I'll take you up on that bet, any BTC amount you want (as long as I have that much).

Josh changed the terms of the bet because Micon has been stating that BFL is a scam from the start, saying that they'll never ship.  Micon doesn't believe that to be true anymore, and Josh is calling him out on it.  At this point, Micon is only willing to bet on WHEN BFL will deliver, not IF they will deliver, attempting to cover up the fact that he was wrong about them being an outright scam.

One issue is the length of time coins are locked up. If you set end of 2013 as an end point, as long as BFL doesn't come right out and say it's a scam you end up having your coins out of reach for 10+months even if they don't ship anything and all the customers have abandoned them for other vendors. I understand Josh's reticence to accept March 15th given how badly BFL has done with deadlines in the past, but end of 2013 might be excessive.

[SgtSpike]

1) Based on your own accusations of BFL being a scam who will never ship, you should easily win the bet he offered.

2) If you believe your own statements that BFL is a scam, you would likely jump at the chance to win 2000 coins.  Why wouldn't you just take his monies?

Like I said, it goes both ways...

But Josh changed the terms of the bet quite a bit.  For one thing he changed the end date from this month or Mar 15th to December 31st 2013.

Also his device is transparent.  He is saying: "No, I will not take your carefully thought out 20BTC bet.  Instead I will counter with a different bet with different terms for 100x the amount you offered. And if you don't take it, then you are a liar.".

First of all this smells like a bluff.  But nonetheless noone is going to take a $50k bet with basically no terms in a couple of posts in a forum thread.  It's posturing.  It's obvious BS.

But I suppose it isn't obvious to everyone.

It's obvious BS?  So you don't think BFL will ship before the end of 2013 either?  If that's the case, I'll take you up on that bet, any BTC amount you want (as long as I have that much).

Josh changed the terms of the bet because Micon has been stating that BFL is a scam from the start, saying that they'll never ship.  Micon doesn't believe that to be true anymore, and Josh is calling him out on it.  At this point, Micon is only willing to bet on WHEN BFL will deliver, not IF they will deliver, attempting to cover up the fact that he was wrong about them being an outright scam.

One issue is the length of time coins are locked up. If you set end of 2013 as an end point, as long as BFL doesn't come right out and say it's a scam you end up having your coins out of reach for 10+months even if they don't ship anything and all the customers have abandoned them for other vendors. I understand Josh's reticence to accept March 15th given how badly BFL has done with deadlines in the past, but end of 2013 might be excessive.

I agree.  Mid-2013 seems reasonable to me (which is why I offered such a bet).  Regardless, Micon hasn't come out and said that that was a reason for avoiding Josh's bet yet.

OTOH, if Micon was still so sure that BFL was a scam, then he should be jumping at the chance to secure a 100% ROI of 2000 BTC 10 months from now.

[kayrice]

I am posting from a handheld so sorry for crappy typing. My point is that the only folks that will make any money from these products will be BFL. I have doubts they will bring any ASIC to market, but my interest is in the short term. Usually I would not care, but I think people are being manipulated out of their money.

BFL will not ship by march, that appears true at least.

[Zedster]

BFL will not ship by march, that appears true at least.

And how does that appear true?  What are you basing your statement on? The fact that the chips are here and in the bumping process. This does not seem so sure for me.