280 BTC total bets between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?)

[Micon]

C'mon now, work with me here. You still plan on winning the bet with mrb right? If they release something with Avalon efficiency, a lot of people would be very angry, including me, but they wouldn't be considered a scam. They've already admit they can't meet the power estimate, at least not for now, perhaps not by June 30th either.

I am willing to make 2 wagers right now:


1)  I just got 25 more coins down laying a guy 2-1 on April shipping.  I am willing to do the same for you, your 5 coins vs. my 10, end of April strike date 200 Mh/J+ power rating

2) 5/30/2013 (2 full months from now!) strike date, 1-to-1 bet.  My 5 coins vs. your 5 coins 200+ Mh/J power rating. 


Also these are open to anyone, for up to 250 coins.

[CrazyGuy]

I believe I may have misinterpreted your feelings on BFL. It's your position that they aren't going to deliver anything at all, correct? By use of logical deduction, it appears you think it's possible they will deliver a device between May 30th and June 30th with an efficiency below 350mhash/joule but above 110mhash/Joule? Is that correct? If that's not the case, why don't you accept my bet?

If BFL doesn't deliver by June 30th, they are going bankrupt, regardless of if they are a scam or not. I'd have no issue giving you 5 coins at that point.

[casascius]

Someone please just keep track of these details so that if it gets down to it, I don't have to sort through a mess if I end up having to release the key one way or another.  I trust you guys are gentlemen, but I have been hoping from the beginning that I don't have to do anything more complicated than determine the obvious and release a key uncontroversially if it becomes necessary.  I am unwilling to provide arbitration services, and am unwilling to make more than a cursory effort to determine the winner, just as a matter of personal policy.  Just be aware of the risk that if evaluating the winner ends up becoming too difficult or too indeterminate for me, the only option I'll be able to provide is to release both keys to a different arbitrator more willing to sort through it, which won't be ideal for anybody.  You guys might want to start a shared Google Doc concisely describing what you've agreed to before any of the deadlines arrive, and once you both believe it is consistent with your understanding, PGP sign the text.

[Micon]

I believe I may have misinterpreted your feelings on BFL. It's your position that they aren't going to deliver anything at all, correct? By use of logical deduction, it appears you think it's possible they will deliver a device between May 30th and June 30th with an efficiency below 350mhash/joule but above 110mhash/Joule? Is that correct? If that's not the case, why don't you accept my bet?

If BFL doesn't deliver by June 30th, they are going bankrupt, regardless of if they are a scam or not. I'd have no issue giving you 5 coins at that point.

My beliefs vs what the market demands (or will give) are two very different things.

If I believe BFL will never ship, but someone will bet me 25 coins vs. my 50 that BFL will ship in April, well of course I would take that, as if I'm right I get paid in 1 month.  In these cases I can still be wrong and win.

While I will plainly state my beliefs in my BFL scam thread, this thread is only about betting on BFL shipping dates.  Both of us are going to try and get the most favorable terms from the other.

I offered the 2 bets above because 1 was actually booked ~ 24 hrs ago, a clear indicator of the market, and 1 is what I believe an extrapolation of the first bet is when betting 1:1 and not 2:1.

Someone please just keep track of these details so that if it gets down to it, I don't have to sort through a mess if I end up having to release the key one way or another.  I trust you guys are gentlemen, but I have been hoping from the beginning that I don't have to do anything more complicated than determine the obvious and release a key uncontroversially if it becomes necessary.  I am unwilling to provide arbitration services, and am unwilling to make more than a cursory effort to determine the winner, just as a matter of personal policy.  Just be aware of the risk that if evaluating the winner ends up becoming too difficult or too indeterminate for me, the only option I'll be able to provide is to release both keys to a different arbitrator more willing to sort through it, which won't be ideal for anybody.  You guys might want to start a shared Google Doc concisely describing what you've agreed to before any of the deadlines arrive, and once you both believe it is consistent with your understanding, PGP sign the text.

1)  thanks very much for the btc-address tool.  It's potential is enormous.  Escrowing dumb bets is the tip of the iceberg IMO.  Multi-factor private key storage is the real killer app here IMO.

2)  thanks very much for acting as escrow.  I highly doubt there will be any judgement calls on this matter.  On the off chance there is any objection we can go to arbitration without you Mike.   I have a feeling in all cases here the loser will send the winner the string.

3)  I personally keep all the info in a cloud encrypted note service.

[darkmule]

If I believe BFL will never ship, but someone will bet me 25 coins vs. my 50 that BFL will ship in April, well of course I would take that, as if I'm right I get paid in 1 month.  In these cases I can still be wrong and win.

Plus you can then bet on another shipping date after that, ad infinitum, as long as you have takers.

[Micon]

with this thread:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

there is much renewed hope for BFL supporters.

If anyone wants some 1:1 action on April shipping / 350 Mh/J+ and 5+ confirmed members rec'd I will bet up to 250 btc against that

[Atruk]

with this thread:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=163261.0

there is much renewed hope for BFL supporters.

If anyone wants some 1:1 action on April shipping / 350 Mh/J+ and 5+ confirmed members rec'd I will bet up to 250 btc against that

This thread is awfully cluttered, so you might as well let me know on here that you accepted my surrender in the March Madness Bracket.

[mrb]

This video recently came out:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side

[Micon]

This video recently came out:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?   

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports&  1 device 350Mh/J+

[SgtSpike]

This video recently came out:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side

I hope you win your bet.  I definitely expect to win mine.  As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good. 

[mrb]

do you have any interest on gambling with odds on an earlier date?  

how about your 100 coins vs. my 150
date: 5/15
same terms 3x non-BFL reports&  1 device 350Mh/J+

No, thanks. It is too uncertain whether BFL can ship by 5/15 or not. However I would consider doubling or tripling our current bet, if we push the date to Sep 30, 2013 (1 year after the original shipping date!) while keeping all other conditions as is.

[creativex]

This video recently came out:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side

As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good. 

WOW

Didn't you pay them over 230BTCs for two singles nine months ago? You realize that if they ship on 6/30/2013 and the power consumption is anywhere near 10w/Gh you'll never even get your money back right?

[SgtSpike]

This video recently came out:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C4bgho5JSI

and it's basically getting laughed at for the power consumption (i mean, the lights literally flicker at :17 as iCEBREAKER noticed 1st) and all my bets state 350 Mh/J.

So in short yes, I expect to win all bets.

For the record, I still expect to win my bet against Micon. (Though the deadline of June 30 is currently my biggest uncertainty - I did expect BFL to be late, but not that late.)

The reason is simple: ASICMINER achieves 167 Mh/J at 130nm. Therefore merely scaling down their design to 65nm (which is BFL's process) should lead to 670 Mh/J, and my bet stipulates 350+ Mh/J.

The BFL video shows a device doing 140 Mh/J, but that includes the inefficiency of the AC/DC power adapter (which is excluded from the bet), and it is affected by the believable explanation of the crappy DC/DC converter (which will be fixed per BFL), and this does not take into account the Jalapeno (which will likely be undervolted to increase power efficiency to fit under the 500mA limit per USB link - remember my bet specifies that only one of BFL's product lines has to beat 350 Mhash/J, not all of them.)

If anybody disagree with me, feel free to bet on http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=665 where I also have 50 BTC on BFL's side

As long as power beats Avalon and they ship before 7/1, then I'm good. 

WOW

Didn't you pay them over 230BTCs for two singles nine months ago? You realize that if they ship on 6/30/2013 and the power consumption is anywhere near 10w/Gh you'll never even get your money back right?

450 BTC.  And I'm not expecting to recover that much BTC through mining.  Maybe half, maybe a bit more.  Hindsight is 20/20!

As far as power usage, that was just the terms of the bet.  At this point, I expect them to be 1/5 the power usage of an Avalon (120w for a Single), but that's just a guess.  I really don't expect them to be anywhere near Avalon, that was just what we agreed upon so that I wouldn't have to worry about that aspect of the bet (and Micon wouldn't have to worry about them shipping out a cluster of FPGA's to win the bet on a technicality).

[creativex]

Yeah I wasn't clear, I meant 230ish each. Sorry to dwell on this but I don't see how  you're so calm about it. The only real advantage left was their huge power efficiency advantage estimate and that's turning out to be inaccurate as well. I'm certain I'd have cancelled when that first Avalon showed up and began dropping my expected returns if not sooner. Doing so whould've given you resources to invest in Avalon's batch 2, which is looking like the ASIC bargain of the year at this point. You seem like a pleasant enough fellow, hope this works out in your favor.

[SgtSpike]

Yeah I wasn't clear, I meant 230ish each. Sorry to dwell on this but I don't see how  you're so calm about it. The only real advantage left was their huge power efficiency advantage estimate and that's turning out to be inaccurate as well. I'm certain I'd have cancelled when that first Avalon showed up and began dropping my expected returns if not sooner. Doing so whould've given you resources to invest in Avalon's batch 2, which is looking like the ASIC bargain of the year at this point. You seem like a pleasant enough fellow, hope this works out in your favor.

If I had a later order, I might have cancelled and gone for an Avalon.  But I have a first-day order - I'll most certainly be in the first units to be shipped out.  And I'm not terribly confident in Avalon's ability to actually get units to US customers either.  They're taking 1.5-2 months to get there!

There's much better things in life to get upset about.  I choose to live a stress-free life by not worrying about much of anything at all.  It works well for me.    As it is, I still stand to make a metric ton of money whenever they finally do arrive (double the $$ per day than when I first ordered them, even), so I'm not complaining.

Sure, in hindsight, it would have worked out better to order an Avalon.  But I couldn't have known that.  It was my choice to risk my order with BFL and not with Avalon, so I will take whatever consequences or reductions of benefits that come along with that choice.

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

[creativex]

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

[SgtSpike]

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

Avalon draws 620w at the wall for 68GH/s = 9.1w/GHash
Bfl draws 179w at the wall for 24GH/s = 7.5w/Ghash

That's a significant advantage, and that's still the worst possible case for BFL.  They had miners that did much better, at 1.76, 2.5, 4, and 6 w/ghash.

[creativex]

Also, they're still MUCH more efficient than the Avalon units, even at the highest wattage they saw!

I'd like to see your maths on that. All I've seen so far is a 30Gh mini single SC prototype doing 24Gh/s, drawing 179w, and spitting out a huge number of hardware errors. Doesn't sound like much of an advantage at all. Avalon has said they've doubled their production capacity and CNY is over. I suspect that batch 2 Avalon customers that ordered on 2/2/2013 will begin receiving products before BFL customers that ordered in June of 2012 which will further erode returns for BFL investors. The whole thing is tragic.

Avalon draws 620w at the wall for 68GH/s = 9.1w/GHash
Bfl draws 179w at the wall for 24GH/s = 7.5w/Ghash

That's a significant advantage, and that's still the worst possible case for BFL.  They had miners that did much better, at 1.76, 2.5, 4, and 6 w/ghash.

I guess we have different definitions for the word significant. Wonder why they'd choose to show a demo of one that consumes 7.5w/Gh if they had much better samples. Surely they knew that whatever they released would be thoroughly scrutinized. If BFL really does end up shipping a product that misses it's power estimates by 650%, I hope they're bankrupted by cancelled orders. I myself have been verbally assaulted on more than one occasion by BFL's troll in chief for suggesting that their 1w/Gh power estimate across their entire product line was unrealistic. I can't even count the number of people that I've seen spewing BFLs power estimate as though it were gospel. This was *THE* selling point after their shipping dates were missed again and again.

[tommychong]

they jacked the prices on them they doubled

[MooC Tals]

They doubled their prices because the price of bitcoins when up. This is their thinking process

The people that held on to their bitcoins and waited to buy will now buy with bitcoins that have appreciated in value so we will now jack the prices up. At the same time the pre-orders and slowing down and the refunds are speeding up.

They're sooo fucken lucky that bitcoins have run up in price or Big Fucken Liars would have gone out of business.

I was gonna buy one but now they just lost a customer. I won't buy from them ever and I'll wait for a competitor or buy from Avalon

Either way anyone who buys from BFL deserves what ever they get.