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Author Topic: BitMillions.com- More than ฿ 1,400 in Prizes - Play with only ฿ 0.01!  (Read 21204 times)
BitMillions
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March 19, 2013, 07:17:16 PM
 #161


We are very excited to announce our New Affiliate Program!!

Start making more profit with your website or signature, anyone is welcome to join, just leave a message here or send us a pm.

More info at:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=155027.0


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remotemass
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March 21, 2013, 05:04:40 AM
 #162

Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs?
Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed?
What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?

Would be great there was a torrent file of all referenced materials of the paper: "How to Build Time-Lock Encryption" by Tibor Jager. And having its magnet link published on bitcoin blockchain!
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March 21, 2013, 09:30:05 AM
 #163

Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs?
Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed?
What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?
The second case is practically impossible - someone generated a few million hashes and it didn't came up IIRC.
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March 21, 2013, 04:19:28 PM
 #164

Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs?

No special reason to chose 4, it could have been any number.
But the idea is that we will be able to use the same Big Integer to different games. In another game we just skip 10 pairs and got 4 completely different numbers from the same hash.

Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed?

Repetitive numbers are also skipped, the algoritm will grab the next pair until 4 unique pair of numbers are obtained.
Take a look to Draw # 225.098 for example ( https://bitmillions.com/draws/225098 ) the second [21] is skipped, because is already included in the winning numbers.

What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?

As stated above, is not a problem and it will never happen.

BRules
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March 21, 2013, 06:45:08 PM
 #165


What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?

As stated above, is not a problem and it will never happen.

mathematically speaking:

each big number has 154 characters, so it can be divided into 77 numbers with two digits

the first 5 numbers with 2 digits are skipped, so there are 72 numbers left

so the best chance to it happens is:

(1/100) * (1/50) * ((1/33.33) ^ 69) = 1.6803 * (10 ^ -109)

so, this will never happen

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March 21, 2013, 07:43:44 PM
 #166

mathematically speaking:

each big number has 154 characters, so it can be divided into 77 numbers with two digits

the first 5 numbers with 2 digits are skipped, so there are 72 numbers left

so the best chance to it happens is:

(1/100) * (1/50) * ((1/33.33) ^ 69) = 1.6803 * (10 ^ -109)

so, this will never happen

Thanks for the further clarification BRules!

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March 21, 2013, 09:43:18 PM
 #167

How does the housing fees of your game compares with the housing fees of lottery games like the Euromillions?

Would be great there was a torrent file of all referenced materials of the paper: "How to Build Time-Lock Encryption" by Tibor Jager. And having its magnet link published on bitcoin blockchain!
BRules
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March 21, 2013, 10:14:06 PM
 #168

they take 10% of losing tickets, so their house edge is 7.5% in average, national lotterys take a minimum of 30%

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March 21, 2013, 10:43:03 PM
 #169

How does the housing fees of your game compares with the housing fees of lottery games like the Euromillions?
Do not forget that the EV can be positive if the pot is large enough Smiley
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March 22, 2013, 02:08:09 AM
 #170

I really like it.
Looks very professional, and is a lot of fun. 
And I won 0.9 BTC yesterday Cool
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March 22, 2013, 03:51:51 AM
 #171

they take 10% of losing tickets, so their house edge is 7.5% in average, national lotterys take a minimum of 30%

Not only that, traditional lotteries as I posted before:

State Loteries

- 40% Goverment & Administration Fees (*1)
- 30% Lump Sum Deduction (*2)
- 43% Goverment Taxes Deduction (*2)

Players Spend in Tickets: $10.000.000.-

JackPot is $6.000.000.-

Paid as Lump Sum: $3.900.000.-

After Taxes: $2.223.000

BitMillions

Total Players Spend in Tickets: BTC 138.000.-

Total Prizes Paid to Players: BTC 127.650.-

All prizes are fully paid as Lump Sump & with no Tax Deductions as soon as the player ticket got enough confirmations ( Each Player is responsable for reporting to his Tax Jurisdiction )

In Sumary

At same amount of Bets

BitMillions will Paid Back to Players: BTC 127.650 ( Around $9.255.000 with BTC at $72.5 )
State Loteries Paid Back to Players: $2.223.000

Of course this is a basic example, since there is Sale Taxes, Smaller Jackpots, etc, that are not tacked into consideration.

And we are not even talking about the transparency and the Provably Fair Winning Number that make it imposible to the operator to cheat on the results.

Sources:

(*1) http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/econ/lottery-payouts-and-state-revenue-2010.aspx
(*2) http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2012/08/15/how-much-tax-will-you-owe-on-that-320-million-powerball-jackpot/

Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 8.5% and not 10%

[EDITED] House Fee Edited as corrected bellow.

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March 22, 2013, 04:58:09 PM
 #172

Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 7% and not 10%

hmmm.. looks like I was doing some wrong calcs. but with this information now I'm getting about 8.5% house edge.

1 in 6.86 is 14.57% and 10% * (1-0.1457) = 8.5%

what am I'm missing?


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March 22, 2013, 05:08:56 PM
 #173

Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 7% and not 10%

1 in 6.86 is 14.57% and 10% * (1-0.1457) = 8.5%

what am I'm missing?

Just to add extra confusion, I get a slightly different result again, probably because I'm only counting losing bets as losing bets, whereas you're also counting match-2, 3, and 4 as losing bets I think.

79727040 out of 94109400 bets match nothing, and so are losing bet.  That's 84.71740% of bets.

The house keeps 10% of losing bets, so 8.47174%.

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   1% House Edge
BRules
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March 22, 2013, 07:55:25 PM
 #174

yes, because they don't say anything on giving the ticket back when hitting 2,3 or 4 numbers but if we count these hits percentage we will get 14.575037% + 0.697741% + 0.009793% + 0.000026% = 15.282597%


so, 10% * (1-0.152826) = 8.47174%


I know this is the best scenario where we aren't couting the free plays and the discounts on largers bets. but I don't think they will reach 7%
 



Carlos L.
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March 22, 2013, 08:07:07 PM
 #175

They also have to pay tx fees and referral commissions.
BRules
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March 22, 2013, 08:26:46 PM
 #176

yes, so, in this case, their commision will reach 7%

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March 23, 2013, 04:34:29 PM
 #177

You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited )

From that we need to deduct our costs:

- Transaction Fees
- Partners & Referrals
- Hosting & CDN ( CloudFlare )
- SEO & Advertising

Also risking of initial investment of BTC 1,300 in Prizes, plus the cost of building the site.

I guess after all these costs the net margin is much more lower than 7%, specially since we treat the BitMillions.com website as a Partner (at 50% RevShare) and use 100% of those funds for the marketing of the site.

The real action will come when we reach a BTC 5,000 JackPot, in our simulations, we got as higher as BTC 13,000 with an Exchange of $80 could be around $1,000,000 Dollar Pot! That will be interesting. I really think we will get there one day Smiley


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March 23, 2013, 07:24:45 PM
 #178

You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited )

From that we need to deduct our costs:

The thing is that gamblers don't care what you spend the house edge on.  They just want to know how much you pay out and how much you keep.  Whether you spend your 8% house edge on advertising or drugs doesn't make a different to me.  I still only get 92% of each bet back on average.

A casino won't say "our house edge on roulette is less than 1% because we give you free drinks while you play and it cost a lot to build the casino in the first place".

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   1% House Edge
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March 24, 2013, 12:50:46 AM
 #179

You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited )

From that we need to deduct our costs:

The thing is that gamblers don't care what you spend the house edge on.  They just want to know how much you pay out and how much you keep.  Whether you spend your 8% house edge on advertising or drugs doesn't make a different to me.  I still only get 92% of each bet back on average.

A casino won't say "our house edge on roulette is less than 1% because we give you free drinks while you play and it cost a lot to build the casino in the first place".

I know Dooglus, that is why I edited the comment... I always claimed the House Fee is 10% of lossing bet, never really taked the time to do the math as you guys did. Thanks for that!

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March 26, 2013, 01:24:04 PM
 #180

ANOTHER LUCKY WINNER!!  Grin

BitMillions.com - The Best BTC Provably Fair Lottery Site for Bitcoin Gambling

Won 36.4773 BTC with a ticket of 1 BTC



Check Draw at https://bitmillions.com/draws/228060

And ticket at https://bitmillions.com/tickets/f9c376b11a59f4db59d479b0b0d4642d6716582fe5c5bb9cb7100a4f2b068cd7:1



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