remotemass
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March 21, 2013, 05:04:40 AM |
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Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs? Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed? What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?
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{ Imagine a sequence of bits generated from the first decimal place of the square roots of whole integers that are irrational numbers. If the decimal falls between 0 and 5, it's considered bit 0, and if it falls between 5 and 10, it's considered bit 1. This sequence from a simple integer count of contiguous irrationals and their logical decimal expansion of the first decimal place is called the 'main irrational stream.' Our goal is to design a physical and optical computing system system that can detect when this stream starts matching a specific pattern of a given size of bits. bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=166760.0 } Satoshi did use a friend class in C++ and put a comment on the code saying: "This is why people hate C++".
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🏰 TradeFortress 🏰
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March 21, 2013, 09:30:05 AM |
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Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs? Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed? What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?
The second case is practically impossible - someone generated a few million hashes and it didn't came up IIRC.
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ShaTwo
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March 21, 2013, 04:19:28 PM |
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Once you get that last hash and it is converted to decimal numbers, why do you skip the first 5 pairs?
No special reason to chose 4, it could have been any number. But the idea is that we will be able to use the same Big Integer to different games. In another game we just skip 10 pairs and got 4 completely different numbers from the same hash. Also, what if the resulting numbers were extremely repetitive and less than 4 unique pairs could be grabbed?
Repetitive numbers are also skipped, the algoritm will grab the next pair until 4 unique pair of numbers are obtained. Take a look to Draw # 225.098 for example ( https://bitmillions.com/draws/225098 ) the second [21] is skipped, because is already included in the winning numbers. What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?
As stated above, is not a problem and it will never happen.
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BRules
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March 21, 2013, 06:45:08 PM |
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What would be the winning numbers in such extremely unlikely case?
As stated above, is not a problem and it will never happen. mathematically speaking: each big number has 154 characters, so it can be divided into 77 numbers with two digits the first 5 numbers with 2 digits are skipped, so there are 72 numbers left so the best chance to it happens is: (1/100) * (1/50) * ((1/33.33) ^ 69) = 1.6803 * (10 ^ -109) so, this will never happen
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ShaTwo
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March 21, 2013, 07:43:44 PM |
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mathematically speaking:
each big number has 154 characters, so it can be divided into 77 numbers with two digits
the first 5 numbers with 2 digits are skipped, so there are 72 numbers left
so the best chance to it happens is:
(1/100) * (1/50) * ((1/33.33) ^ 69) = 1.6803 * (10 ^ -109)
so, this will never happen
Thanks for the further clarification BRules!
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remotemass
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March 21, 2013, 09:43:18 PM |
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How does the housing fees of your game compares with the housing fees of lottery games like the Euromillions?
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{ Imagine a sequence of bits generated from the first decimal place of the square roots of whole integers that are irrational numbers. If the decimal falls between 0 and 5, it's considered bit 0, and if it falls between 5 and 10, it's considered bit 1. This sequence from a simple integer count of contiguous irrationals and their logical decimal expansion of the first decimal place is called the 'main irrational stream.' Our goal is to design a physical and optical computing system system that can detect when this stream starts matching a specific pattern of a given size of bits. bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=166760.0 } Satoshi did use a friend class in C++ and put a comment on the code saying: "This is why people hate C++".
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BRules
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March 21, 2013, 10:14:06 PM |
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they take 10% of losing tickets, so their house edge is 7.5% in average, national lotterys take a minimum of 30%
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🏰 TradeFortress 🏰
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March 21, 2013, 10:43:03 PM |
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How does the housing fees of your game compares with the housing fees of lottery games like the Euromillions?
Do not forget that the EV can be positive if the pot is large enough ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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frga13
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March 22, 2013, 02:08:09 AM |
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I really like it. Looks very professional, and is a lot of fun. And I won 0.9 BTC yesterday ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif)
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ShaTwo
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March 22, 2013, 03:51:51 AM Last edit: March 23, 2013, 04:36:56 PM by ShaTwo |
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they take 10% of losing tickets, so their house edge is 7.5% in average, national lotterys take a minimum of 30%
Not only that, traditional lotteries as I posted before: State Loteries- 40% Goverment & Administration Fees (*1) - 30% Lump Sum Deduction (*2) - 43% Goverment Taxes Deduction (*2) Players Spend in Tickets: $10.000.000.- JackPot is $6.000.000.- Paid as Lump Sum: $3.900.000.- After Taxes: $2.223.000 BitMillionsTotal Players Spend in Tickets: BTC 138.000.- Total Prizes Paid to Players: BTC 127.650.- All prizes are fully paid as Lump Sump & with no Tax Deductions as soon as the player ticket got enough confirmations ( Each Player is responsable for reporting to his Tax Jurisdiction ) In SumaryAt same amount of Bets BitMillions will Paid Back to Players: BTC 127.650 ( Around $9.255.000 with BTC at $72.5 ) State Loteries Paid Back to Players: $2.223.000 Of course this is a basic example, since there is Sale Taxes, Smaller Jackpots, etc, that are not tacked into consideration. And we are not even talking about the transparency and the Provably Fair Winning Number that make it imposible to the operator to cheat on the results. Sources:(*1) http://www.ncsl.org/issues-research/econ/lottery-payouts-and-state-revenue-2010.aspx(*2) http://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2012/08/15/how-much-tax-will-you-owe-on-that-320-million-powerball-jackpot/Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 8.5% and not 10% [EDITED] House Fee Edited as corrected bellow.
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BRules
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March 22, 2013, 04:58:09 PM |
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Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 7% and not 10%
hmmm.. looks like I was doing some wrong calcs. but with this information now I'm getting about 8.5% house edge. 1 in 6.86 is 14.57% and 10% * (1-0.1457) = 8.5% what am I'm missing?
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dooglus
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March 22, 2013, 05:08:56 PM |
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Disclamer: Since we only charge in Lossing Bets, and chances of matching 1 are 1 in 6.86 we estimate that the house fee is around 7% and not 10%
1 in 6.86 is 14.57% and 10% * (1-0.1457) = 8.5% what am I'm missing? Just to add extra confusion, I get a slightly different result again, probably because I'm only counting losing bets as losing bets, whereas you're also counting match-2, 3, and 4 as losing bets I think. 79727040 out of 94109400 bets match nothing, and so are losing bet. That's 84.71740% of bets. The house keeps 10% of losing bets, so 8.47174%.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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BRules
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March 22, 2013, 07:55:25 PM |
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yes, because they don't say anything on giving the ticket back when hitting 2,3 or 4 numbers but if we count these hits percentage we will get 14.575037% + 0.697741% + 0.009793% + 0.000026% = 15.282597%
so, 10% * (1-0.152826) = 8.47174%
I know this is the best scenario where we aren't couting the free plays and the discounts on largers bets. but I don't think they will reach 7%
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ingrownpocket
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March 22, 2013, 08:07:07 PM |
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They also have to pay tx fees and referral commissions.
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BRules
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March 22, 2013, 08:26:46 PM |
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yes, so, in this case, their commision will reach 7%
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ShaTwo
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March 23, 2013, 04:34:29 PM |
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You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited ) From that we need to deduct our costs: - Transaction Fees - Partners & Referrals - Hosting & CDN ( CloudFlare ) - SEO & Advertising Also risking of initial investment of BTC 1,300 in Prizes, plus the cost of building the site. I guess after all these costs the net margin is much more lower than 7%, specially since we treat the BitMillions.com website as a Partner (at 50% RevShare) and use 100% of those funds for the marketing of the site. The real action will come when we reach a BTC 5,000 JackPot, in our simulations, we got as higher as BTC 13,000 with an Exchange of $80 could be around $1,000,000 Dollar Pot! That will be interesting. I really think we will get there one day ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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dooglus
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March 23, 2013, 07:24:45 PM |
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You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited )
From that we need to deduct our costs:
The thing is that gamblers don't care what you spend the house edge on. They just want to know how much you pay out and how much you keep. Whether you spend your 8% house edge on advertising or drugs doesn't make a different to me. I still only get 92% of each bet back on average. A casino won't say "our house edge on roulette is less than 1% because we give you free drinks while you play and it cost a lot to build the casino in the first place".
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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ShaTwo
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March 24, 2013, 12:50:46 AM |
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You guys are correct, technically the house fee should be in around 8.5% ( Edited )
From that we need to deduct our costs:
The thing is that gamblers don't care what you spend the house edge on. They just want to know how much you pay out and how much you keep. Whether you spend your 8% house edge on advertising or drugs doesn't make a different to me. I still only get 92% of each bet back on average. A casino won't say "our house edge on roulette is less than 1% because we give you free drinks while you play and it cost a lot to build the casino in the first place". I know Dooglus, that is why I edited the comment... I always claimed the House Fee is 10% of lossing bet, never really taked the time to do the math as you guys did. Thanks for that!
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midnightlightning
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March 26, 2013, 03:50:51 PM |
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Just wanted to comment on a great design for your site, ShaTwo; I played a few times and really enjoy the feel of having a real "ticket" showing my bets. As a web designer/developer myself, I appreciate the design; Kudos! A few suggestions, though, from me as a designer (if you don't mind): One design choice I'd change is the style of the "Ticket Total Wins" header: to me the gold coloring doesn't make that line pop, and that's a line that I really want to see at a glance. Everywhere else on the site, gold/tan is a background color, which may be why it looks diminished to me. Plus it's very close to the orange used by the "profit button" on each ticket/draw when the bet was lost. Would you consider changing it either to green to match the color of a winning "profit button" or red (matching the "with this luck..." line beneath it) to really pop? Also, what's the meaning behind the gold coin that's used next to the "Total Ticket Wins" header? I'm not sure what the imagery is in the middle of the gold coin; is that a cross? Or scales? Is there a reason it's not a Bitcoin "coin" like the coins used on the pool size table on the home page? And the blue "Lotto" logo that's used on the detail page of any draw; was that left over from an earlier design? You have no blue anywhere else on the site, and the two "o"s in that logo look like they are two parts that combined into your current logo. And finally, I agree with the comment that the display of the current jackpot size is misleading. Currently the big red box at the top of the site reads 1281.0461, but below it on the home page, pool 4 shows 1,245.0662 (and 35.66749 for three, and 0.312348 for two). If you add up the current pools 2, 3 and 4, you get the total in the red box. However, since the winner only takes 50%, I'd really like to see the red box show 640.5230 in that case, as that's the true winning jackpot at the moment. The listing of the pool sizes on the home page can stay as they are, since you have right beneath it that 50% of the pool is retained, but maybe have a separate table for "what you'd win right now if you matched 2, 3, or 4 numbers", which would show 640.5230, 17.9899, and 0.1562 respectively. Having the "current pool" and "you win this amount" tables combined isn't accurate and rather misleading. Great site, and great responses to feedback in the forum, keep up the great work!
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