WARNING: crypto-currencies are very likely going to experience a crash soon

[Spoetnik]

Everything this guy says is more irrational speculation.  

This guy is the ultimate troll, like the guy trying to pretend he is the creator of Bitcoin.

1 sentence long spamming while crying Troll again ?

Do you "discuss" altcoins or only post ETH spam and cry troll ?

If you can not carry on an intelligent conversation maybe leave it up to those of us that can.

or just post more cat pictures and cheerlead for ETH and cry troll some more.
After all your pretty damn good at it..

[stoat]

Everything this guy says is more irrational speculation.  

This guy is the ultimate troll, like the guy trying to pretend he is the creator of Bitcoin.

1 sentence long spamming while crying Troll again ?

Do you "discuss" altcoins or only post ETH spam and cry troll ?

If you can not carry on an intelligent conversation maybe leave it up to those of us that can.

or just post more cat pictures and cheerlead for ETH and cry troll some more.
After all your pretty damn good at it..

Why do you always sound like you're having a meltdown?

[SwedishGirl]

I believe we should all give TPTB some heat regarding his prediciton of double digits BTC in 2016.

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits.

This is laughable.

[sockpuppet1]

I believe we should all give TPTB some heat regarding his prediciton of double digits BTC in 2016.

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits.

This is laughable.

I have said the bottom may not be in yet for gold and Bitcoin.

The timing was originally 2016, but what has changed is that the US Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to try to help Europe. And then the elite hatched this plan to have a BREXIT vote so as to reaffirm the U.K.'s commitment to the EU. This BREXIT victory for the EU, coupled with the delay in raising interest rates, is causing the confidence to swing temporarily back to the Euro (away from the dollar) and is giving a deadcat bounce to speculation markets (which require general liquidity because they are all about harvesting the funds of stoopid greater fool n00bs).

But this delay is causing pension plans to go bankrupt and is causing all the excesses of debt to move well above nosebleed levels:

China's economy will have a reset in 2020

How'd you come up with that year?

I have a triangulation of three sources:

1. Martin Armstrong's computer and database.
2. Michael Pettis's (China expert, widely respected) calculations (and he has been correct several times already).
3. The charts showing China is nearing the Minsky Moment:

2018 Kaboom!

https://www.docdroid.net/file/download/i3f8uVF/stanley-druckenmiller-the-end-game.pdf (see page 7)

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21698240-it-question-when-not-if-real-trouble-will-hit-china-coming-debt-bust

The new username is temporarily forced by a 10 day ban.

So what we have is a massive Minsky Moment being tightly wound like a spring fully compressed that is going to explode once the Euro peaks (perhaps as high as 1.24). We are waiting for the BREXIT to drive this counter-trend, deadcat rally to its extreme.

Then upon the election of Trump in November, coinciding with that global liquidity contagion Minsky Moment as interest rates start to move and the dollar starts gaining again, then roughly Q1 2017 (but anytime after BREXIT peak is still possible in later 2016), we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars. Trump will drive a desire to hold dollars as he will threaten trade and currency wars against China.

Trump will win because he will move more to the center of right after he secures the Republican nomination. He will become nicer and people will see him in a more positive light. And he will destroy Hellary's reputation with his skilled way of attacking. He had to appeal to the hard right in order to stop the entrenched power players in the Republican party from stealing the nomination from him. He might even appoint Bernie Sanders as Vice President.

Thus the selloff of gold and Bitcoin as well (and altcoins to near 0), but this will be very brief V bottom just like in 2008/2009, then the world's capital will stampede into the dollar, dollar denominated assets such as US stock markets and trophy real estate, and also gold and CC will swing back to bullish mode with the final bottom finally reached.

The latest essay from Armstrong is very important:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/trading-volumes-declines-as-hoarding-rises-due-to-uncertainty/


Edit note Trump is very pro-NSA and even supports laws breaking encryption. He appointed Doug Christie who is very totalitarian about NSA (go back and listen to the early Republican debates). I could see Trump potentially becoming very anti-Bitcoin especially with the mining centralization in China. However if Bitcoin is really the House of Morgan's baby, then Trump will be obliged to not attack Bitcoin.

we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars

Bitcoin will go up because it's the Rolls Royce of capital flight, so if you actually believe everyone on earth is going to flood to US dollars (instead of de-pegging from the dollar in general), then it's the go to play to catch market share in that capital flight.

Correct. Agreed. But remember that comes after the V bottom liquidity crunch. A liquidity crunch is not a safe haven move. It is a liquidity survival carry trade reversal on auto-pilot. Human decisions are not in play.

In a liquidity crunch, people are dumping illiquid assets for cash.

Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".

Bitcoin IS CASH.  There's no reason for it to go down.  Trust in banks will be next to ZERO during all of this.  Nobody is going to liquidate all of their assets to just be stored as digital fiat in a bank account.  People will be going wild for Bitcoin because Bitcoin has no bank holiday for the government to Cyprus you.

Sorry you are wrong.

[iamnotback]

Those who have followed me over the years know that I have made some prescient predictions such as the Bitcoin crash from $1000, even the collapse to $150, and even the precise timing and $320 top of the bounce before the current one. In addition the following silver prediction I made:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits. I had explained my reasoning in the past and the current indicators are:

I was wrong and here is my record:

Please remind how your prediction from last year of BTC@150 and gold@800 has turned out?

Don't forget my published prediction of the silver move from $22 to $48, then back down to $25 many months before it happened in 2011 (and did you know that I got fucked over in the Philippines not enabling me to profit on my prediction! If I had my investment in an ETF, my sell order at the peak and short would have been honored! Not to mention that most of my metal was stolen by the only vault provider in Manila you jack ass, and there is no way to sue because they refuse to give accurate accounting!):

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23786.html

Btw, I correctly predicted the low of Bitcoin at $150 first time, and way before it happened. I predicted the fall from the $600s to $300s, and the $150 low. I thought it would deadcat bounce and then go to lower lows, because...

In fact, I mentioned it day before yesterday:

My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold, even though Armstrong never wrote that. That was my mistake, not Armstrong's. I realize now that BTC is correlated to safe haven liquidity same as the dollar and USA stocks.

The gold to $850 is still on the table. Nothing with that has changed. As predicted, the dollar and USA stocks went up and the pound crashed towards parity as predicted. This is why gold is back down in the $1200s, on its way probably to $1050 again and lower (we might get a few more deadcat bounces along the way).

Sorry dollar up, gold down. That has not changed.

My mistake was assuming BTC was correlated to gold as a tinfoil hat asset. Because Satoshi even pitched BTC as gold in his whitepaper. And I know many of early adopters in BTC came from being tinfoil hats (including myself and Bitcoin millionaire rpietila). Btw, I had more silver than rpietila and had it not been for my problem in 2012 with my health and family breakup then I would have been poised to invest $100,000 in BTC at $10 in January 2013. I told rpietila to go ahead, but I told him I had been destroyed by events in 2012 and couldn't follow him. That is fate. But my destiny is not yet complete.

Any way, back to the issue at hand, you should remember that in this thread, I told everyone numerous times that it was my theory that BTC might be correlated to gold, but that I wasn't sure and that I could be wrong. And so I was wrong, but I also admitted at the time that I wasn't sure.

Obviously savvy speculators will do other trades such as buying LTC in October as I advised to do. Btw, I also advised buying Monero earlier this year, before it had its massive rise.

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

I actually find it funny how all the altcoin lovers that preach against Bitcoin being slow and not profitable enough, are now selling their so loved altcoins for BTC in order to benefit from the increase lately.

Those who want more profits try to trade between BTC and altcoins on a see-saw. After BTC peaks, then the altcoins go on a run up, as BTC runs out to altcoins. Then back to BTC or hold in dollars again. Repeat.

Also taking speculations on ICO and mined launches of best-of-breed altcoins has been a way to accumulate more BTC.

Smart money wants to build their stack of BTC any way they can and doesn't waste time with hands-tied-behind-back perma-bull, uni-asset ideology.

Crypto-curreny is an ecosystem. Not a monotheism. Leave the religion to the losers. Smart money is objective.

LTC (Litecoin) has the similar chart pattern as BTC. It has in the past followed BTC moves on a delay, with much greater percentage gains.

I would guess after BTC hits the peak of this move (probably at the handle of the C&H at ~$800ish), then LTC will blast off, if not before.

The following was written Oct. 27 when BTC was in the low $600s and basically on the day before BTC started its rise after bottoming from the Bitfinex hack:

https://steemit.com/money/@anonymint/speculation-rule-buy-when-others-are-irrationally-pessimistic-cautious

Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious

At the low of an investment, everyone is pessimistic and vowing to never "buy that shit". They panic or attrition capitulate to go massively short and sell irrationally.

This also seems to be the case on the way back up, especially a frustrating, meandering slow rise (after that $10 to $1000 moonshot in 2013 which is what everyone is lusting for), as pessimism causes people to find any excuse to give as to why "that shit still isn't ready for prime time":


...

Several crypto investors have complained to me about the (miners) wrangling over Blockstream's changes to Bitcoin, and even the potential technical clusterfuck of Lightning Networks.

This to me is indicative of the time to buy with both fists...

[Vlad2Vlad]

Great call on Trump.  I too called it way early, summer of 2015. 

I don't think many people here realize how lucky they are to have a guy like you posting this stuff for free.

Bitcoin didn't collapse below $150 like you expected but it could have, I too expected a possible drop to around $75. 

Segwit has stalled so I expect some big chaos to ensue soon so Bitcoin just may get that massive crash we both expected, after-all. 

Cheers!

[criptix]

Great call on Trump.  I too called it way early, summer of 2015. 

I don't think many people here realize how lucky they are to have a guy like you posting this stuff for free.

Bitcoin didn't collapse below $150 like you expected but it could have, I too expected a possible drop to around $75. 

Segwit has stalled so I expect some big chaos to ensue soon so Bitcoin just may get that massive crash we both expected, after-all. 

Cheers!

You heard it here first. 75-150$ bitcoins!

 

[iamnotback]

You're kinda trying to rewrite history here.  You went through a i hate everyone in Monero and hope you die stage and then claim you told people to buy it, so it's more like you posted completely contradictory information on Monero.

It is a fact that I said to buy Monero before the blast off. My other criticisms of Monero were orthogonal to any analysis of the chart pattern. Please don't blame your conflation on me. That is your lack of mental acuity.

Btw, I also advised buying Monero earlier this year, before it had its massive rise.

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

There were numerous other posts of mine where I made the same recommendation about Monero at around that time.

[iamnotback]

Let's not even get into the Bitcoin and metals stuff...

This bear trap is why gold and crypto-currencies have not likely seen their lows yet and I am still expecting a selloff in gold to $850 or below and Bitcoin to below $150.

You are doing a good "pull the wool over the eyes" of deflecting everyone's attention away for your absolute stupidity to sell BTC recently in the $600s and buy silver at inflated prices that have now crashed, even I was imploring you to not do so and you were so boastfully being the condescending r0ach that you are.

The prediction in gold is coming true. The $150 in Bitcoin did happen. And that has already been explained numerous times, yet you refuse to acknowledge it. It was a theory that BTC might track gold down, and I did state that it was theory of correlation that might not be true.

...

I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits.

...

It is not certain that gold will elect the March 13/14 turning point to begin its collapse to the final bottom of the correction that began 2011. And it is not certain that crypto-currencies will follow.

...

[criptix]

The op is from march 2016.

When did we hit 150$ this year? Did i miss something?

[s1gs3gv]

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

[25forsure#]

Given long enough time everything will crash so he semi correct. depends how you define soon.

[iamnotback]

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

Does that have any relevance to whether all of my published predictions except one were correct? And the one that was incorrect, I stated upfront that it was only a theory and might not be correct.

Does your comment have some relevance to the size of your penis and your ego? (How dare anyone claim to be correct most of the time, when in fact they are) If not, what is the relevance?

I think you lack the mental acuity to entertain all the factors that go between correct predictions and choosing to be a speculator. I choose to be a programmer and developer (and to have the life experiences of roaming the world including a long stint in the backwater country of the Philippines). A man can be a jack of all trades and expert of none, or can choose to prioritize what he thinks is the most important focus of his time and expertise.

Attacking someone for their choices or priorities as a means of belittling their successes, so as to further your own ego, is not very respectful. If you don't respect others, how can you expect them to respect you.

[s1gs3gv]

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

I choose to be a programmer

Well you should'a said so earlier and i wouldn't have paid any attention to your predictions at all. Programmers are notoriously myopic.

/jk

[Vlad2Vlad]

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

I choose to be a programmer

Well you should'a said so earlier and i wouldn't have paid any attention to your predictions at all. Programmers are notoriously myopic.

/jk

His understanding of economics is at least graduate level.  I'm really impressed with this guy on many levels.

And you're an idiot.  Just an FYI.  

Edit:  missed the jk part.  Ok, you're not an idiot.  Carry on.

[s1gs3gv]

Edit:  missed the jk part.  Ok, you're not an idiot.  Carry on.

Didn't expect to get a such a quick  response from a legend to such an obvious troll !
You must  be a programmer too ~LOL~

/jk

[Vlad2Vlad]

Edit:  missed the jk part.  Ok, you're not an idiot.  Carry on.

Didn't expect to get a such a quick  response from a legend to such an obvious troll !
You must  be a programmer too ~LOL~

/jk

Cypherpunk OG!  That's me, I'm a hacker! 

[LavskaggeafNordlandia]

Whats the thought on a cryptocurrency with half of its value connected to actuall forests?

[sandiman]

Dear OP, with such a prescient mind and foresight aplenty, surely your net worth must be vast !

Does that have any relevance to whether all of my published predictions except one were correct? And the one that was incorrect, I stated upfront that it was only a theory and might not be correct.

Does your comment have some relevance to the size of your penis and your ego? (How dare anyone claim to be correct most of the time, when in fact they are) If not, what is the relevance?

I think you lack the mental acuity to entertain all the factors that go between correct predictions and choosing to be a speculator. I choose to be a programmer and developer (and to have the life experiences of roaming the world including a long stint in the backwater country of the Philippines). A man can be a jack of all trades and expert of none, or can choose to prioritize what he thinks is the most important focus of his time and expertise.

Attacking someone for their choices or priorities as a means of belittling their successes, so as to further your own ego, is not very respectful. If you don't respect others, how can you expect them to respect you.

We all know that you have been failing to do so in the past couple of years, even though I am here only since the beginning of this year. Moreover, I have attended financial market course with proeminent professor, which we describe here as "whale", "smart money", call them whatever you want. No one of them was able, or even tried to make us believe, that they were able to predict the market. No one can do so, and picking up you accurate information to try to make us believe so, is an undergraduate text book case, "the newsletter fallacy" (that I won't explain here), and you will fail to catch the intention of important people doing so.

I wonder how more years will you throw away before opening your eyes to the harsh reality.

[Wananavu99]

What do you guys think about 2018?  I'm interested in knowing if it's worth it to hold on to BTC or sell while it's still around $4k