I believe we should all give TPTB some heat regarding his prediciton of double digits BTC in 2016.
I have also stated that I thought that when gold crashes below $1000 (and likely below $850) this year, then Bitcoin would also likely get caught up in the contagion and sell off to below $150 perhaps back to double-digits.
This is laughable.
I have said the bottom may not be in yet for gold and Bitcoin.
The timing was originally 2016, but what has changed is that the US Fed decided to delay raising interest rates to try to help Europe. And then the elite hatched this plan to have a BREXIT vote so as to reaffirm the U.K.'s commitment to the EU. This BREXIT victory for the EU, coupled with the delay in raising interest rates, is causing the confidence to swing temporarily back to the Euro (away from the dollar) and is giving a deadcat bounce to speculation markets (which require general liquidity because they are all about harvesting the funds of stoopid greater fool n00bs).
But this delay is causing pension plans to go bankrupt and is causing all the excesses of debt to move well above nosebleed levels:
China's economy will have a reset in 2020
How'd you come up with that year?
I have a triangulation of three sources:
1. Martin Armstrong's computer and database.
2. Michael Pettis's (China expert, widely respected) calculations (and he has been correct several times already).
3. The charts showing China is nearing the Minsky Moment:
The new username is temporarily forced by a 10 day ban.
So what we have is a massive Minsky Moment being tightly wound like a spring fully compressed that is going to explode once the Euro peaks (perhaps as high as 1.24). We are waiting for the BREXIT to drive this counter-trend, deadcat rally to its extreme.
Then upon the election of Trump in November, coinciding with that global liquidity contagion Minsky Moment as interest rates start to move and the dollar starts gaining again, then roughly Q1 2017 (but anytime after BREXIT peak is still possible in later 2016), we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars. Trump will drive a desire to hold dollars as he will threaten trade and currency wars against China.
Trump will win because he will move more to the center of right after he secures the Republican nomination. He will become nicer and people will see him in a more positive light. And he will destroy Hellary's reputation with his skilled way of attacking. He had to appeal to the hard right in order to stop the entrenched power players in the Republican party from stealing the nomination from him. He might even appoint Bernie Sanders as Vice President.
Thus the selloff of gold and Bitcoin as well (and altcoins to near 0), but this will be very brief V bottom just like in 2008/2009, then the world's capital will stampede into the dollar, dollar denominated assets such as US stock markets and trophy real estate, and also gold and CC will swing back to bullish mode with the final bottom finally reached.
The latest essay from Armstrong is very important:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/stock-indicies/sp-500/trading-volumes-declines-as-hoarding-rises-due-to-uncertainty/Edit note Trump is very pro-NSA and even supports laws breaking encryption. He appointed Doug Christie who is very totalitarian about NSA (go back and listen to the early Republican debates). I could see Trump potentially becoming very anti-Bitcoin especially with the mining centralization in China. However if Bitcoin is really the House of Morgan's baby, then Trump will be obliged to not attack Bitcoin.
we are going to see a massive liquidity crunch where everyone will pile on short and overshoot to the bottom on every asset except US dollars
Bitcoin will go up because it's the Rolls Royce of capital flight, so if you actually believe everyone on earth is going to flood to US dollars (instead of de-pegging from the dollar in general), then it's the go to play to catch market share in that capital flight.
Correct. Agreed. But remember that comes after the V bottom liquidity crunch. A liquidity crunch is not a safe haven move. It is a liquidity survival carry trade reversal on auto-pilot. Human decisions are not in play.
In a liquidity crunch, people are dumping illiquid assets for cash.
Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".
Bitcoin IS CASH. There's no reason for it to go down. Trust in banks will be next to ZERO during all of this. Nobody is going to liquidate all of their assets to just be stored as digital fiat in a bank account. People will be going wild for Bitcoin because Bitcoin has no bank holiday for the government to Cyprus you.
Sorry you are wrong.
Exactly because their leveraged obligations and margin calls are in cash. And that is not Bitcoin "cash".
I don't think you're taking into account what demographic is actually being "squeezed" in a liquidity crunch. The people who own most of these things (BTC) are already rich in the first place and have no debt. The people who aren't rich and own them have some totally insignificant amount.
The real people getting squeezed are the middle class Americans with McMansions, private schools, and cars they can't afford. What is the common denominator of that group? They all own stocks and none of them own Bitcoin. People on the bottom and middle are the ones being squeezed. Stocks are mainstream, Bitcoin and gold aren't. Therefore, the stock dump will be horrific while things such as Bitcoin, as long as the confidence level is high (from 12.5 block reward halving bubble gains) will not only not go down, but will probably be going up as a safe haven from banks that will Cyprus you because Bitcoin is cash without counterparty risk.
Well I lately more and more realize that Bitcoin is a funnel where n00bs come in to buy and miners cash out. The stalwarts don't buy more, as they are few in number and already have their big portion.
So an interruption in the stream of n00bs might have a domino deleveraging effect, since many people loan their BTC short to earn extra revenue.
Leverage may be hiding where you think you see only HODLers.
Also with the halving and marginal miners not wanting to turn their ASICs into door stops, they may be in a more strained position and need to deleverage in a contagion.
There is leverage from lending BTC for income, but if holders fear counterparty risk and instead pull their coins off exchanges that will only squeeze the shorts and drive the price higher, potentially much higher. I don't think anyone really knows how much short leverage is out there.
If they fear counterparty risk, they will cause a stampede and cause counterparty defaults.
The slowdown in buying from n00bs, can cause the price to drop, which will cause the enriched shorts to pile on (cash out their initial investment and gamble the profits) overshooting to the lower low bottom. Plus all the copycats chasing the trend especially with the "world is falling down" hysteria.
V bottom on steriods. Buy the bottom same as in 2009.
Look guys it is very simple. Bitcoin is not the fiat that everyone uses as their unit-of-account, thus fiat up, Bitcoin down just like every other speculative (hot money) asset in a liquidity crunch.
People invest in Bitcoin to make money, not to hold it as a heirloom. Thus when shorting becomes the new profit trend, the speculators chase the trend. The loaners of BTC raise their rates. Everybody is happy. Bitcoin goes down.
2008 took silver from $21 to $9. Bitcoin is more volatile than silver.
Come on guys, Bitcoin is not cash. That is the dumbest thing I've ever read. Bitcoin is a crypto gambler's addiction. Period. You guys need to get out and get some fresh air and look at yourselves more objectively.
