Avalon is (unfortunately) a scam. Here is why.

[PuertoLibre]

My Theory:

Avalon releases picture of a box (back end)
Response: It is a box of fans!

Avalon releases picture at a different angle.
Then releases pictures of a stat page.


Response: Kano says it looks like legitimate output and remarks on the revision number and date.
Response: Everyone else says nothing. Others say it is "FAKE!", "DOCTORED", "Photoshopped".

Jeff gets his review done after he gets the unit.
Response: Oh that nice, (4 seconds later) But this proves nothing. It only proves that it is one of two boxes. No, it is actually just one box. The REST DON'T WORK!

BitCoin Foundation gets theirs.
Response: WTF is mine!?

First 4 customers get theirs.
Response: WTF, Where are ours?! This is BS! They won't ship the rest!

Next 10 customers get theirs.
Response: Holy MF...Only 10?

Next 100 customers get theirs.
Response: Whatever, I bet they have boxes hidden somewhere and are mining with the other 200+ boards.

Last 200 customers get theirs.
Response: WTF! Where are my Batch 2 orders you SOB?

Feb 20th comes around.
Response: WTF? I bet they ran off with the money.

etc etc.

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[creativex]

Just because a few outliers may respond that way doesn't mean it reflects the majority opinion. Avalon had the best reputation of all the vendors. Recently that's been taking a tremendous beating and not without justification. Their behavior has changed dramatically since their shipping date came and went.

[PuertoLibre]

Just because a few outliers may respond that way doesn't mean it reflects the majority opinion. Avalon had the best reputation of all the vendors. Recently that's been taking a tremendous beating and not without justification. Their behavior has changed dramatically since their shipping date came and went.

Lets hope the level of proof comes and some fears are put to rest. (among the sane of mind at least)

[Transisto]

... Their behavior has changed dramatically since their shipping date came and went.

This, +1

If their only concern now is not being worst than BFL we're in deep trouble.

Whatever problem they have shipping this out of the country could be solved by renting a space and having the hardware mine for customers minus a fee. ...

That would only require ~68amp of 220v  

I'm eager to hear what their problem is / was.

[creativex]

Just because a few outliers may respond that way doesn't mean it reflects the majority opinion. Avalon had the best reputation of all the vendors. Recently that's been taking a tremendous beating and not without justification. Their behavior has changed dramatically since their shipping date came and went.

Lets hope the level of proof comes and some fears are put to rest. (among the sane of mind at least)

Unfortunately, by opening their batch 2 order window tomorrow and making comments such as this:

A demonstration will come by a customer very soon, if you wish to wait until then, go ahead; but you then run into the risk of not making into batch #2

They're forcing people to make choices they shouldn't have to make and that ramps up the animosity. What do you suppose the chances are of an independent review of Avalon appearing today? When that doesn't happen folks will have to go on what they know about Avalon currently to make their decision about batch 2 purchases.

[laSeek]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

[cedivad]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

I apologize.

However my dubs where more than founded. I'm happy that this is an event that was described in my first post, Jeff receiving the unit at least 6 hours before the preorder starts.

I'm really happy of it.

[dree12]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

They don't need to apologize.

I never cried "scam" and I always maintained that Avalon, at least, actually did ship. Even so, I side with the sceptical here. They did nothing wrong. They pointed out, however shallow the logic, that there was a chance that Avalon was a scam. This is more information to everyone. This helps avoid groupthink.

The doubters need not apologize. In fact, I would like to thank them. It helps prove to the real scammers how difficult it would be to scam the community, such that even legitimate products are labelled scams. It ensures a better, safer community in Bitcoin's future.

[mrb]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

They don't need to apologize.

I never cried "scam" and I always maintained that Avalon, at least, actually did ship. Even so, I side with the sceptical here. They did nothing wrong. They pointed out, however shallow the logic, that there was a chance that Avalon was a scam. This is more information to everyone. This helps avoid groupthink.

The doubters need not apologize. In fact, I would like to thank them. It helps prove to the real scammers how difficult it would be to scam the community, such that even legitimate products are labelled scams. It ensures a better, safer community in Bitcoin's future.

No. Most critics did not say there is a "chance". They said with absolute certainty "it is a scam". Cedivad included: check his thread title.

These uninformed and misguided critics have been the root cause of most of the trolling and fights on this forum.

[Trance104]

I can only hope that everyone gets their orders and they all work minus 2 - 3 lemons.

At least ONE person got his. It's stange how all the Chinese orders haven't gotten theirs yet, but the one influential voice in the BTC community got his. I wouldn't be surprised if it "Gets even more GH than claimed!".

We'll see how that one goes. Price increase in batch 2... BTC only... No customer service... If it doesn't work when you get it, "too bad". They are going to walk away with the money. Let Jeff leave his DAZZLING review of the product. We'll see batch 2 sell out and Avalon disappear.

Cheers!  

[cedivad]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

They don't need to apologize.

I never cried "scam" and I always maintained that Avalon, at least, actually did ship. Even so, I side with the sceptical here. They did nothing wrong. They pointed out, however shallow the logic, that there was a chance that Avalon was a scam. This is more information to everyone. This helps avoid groupthink.

The doubters need not apologize. In fact, I would like to thank them. It helps prove to the real scammers how difficult it would be to scam the community, such that even legitimate products are labelled scams. It ensures a better, safer community in Bitcoin's future.

No. Most critics did not say there is a "chance". They said with absolute certainty "it is a scam". Cedivad included: check his thread title.

These uninformed and misguided critics have been the root cause of most of the trolling and fights on this forum.

Look at my first point. For the info we had 2 hours ago, it was a certain scam. Now everything changed.

[420]

http://garzikrants.blogspot.co.uk/

[laSeek]

Looks like Jeff received his package...
Should I hold my breath waiting for those crying scam to apologise?

I apologize.

However my dubs where more than founded. I'm happy that this is an event that was described in my first post, Jeff receiving the unit at least 6 hours before the preorder starts.

I'm really happy of it.

Respect & +1 cedivad - real men aren't afraid to be corrected - stand up for what you believe.
I don't fault Avalon for trying to do things the way they feel is best for them - I don't think they've handled their customers particularly well recently - but they've been better than many and it turns out substance over hype is a better suit for how they want to be seen.  At the end of the day they've come through.  Nice job.

[bce]

Wow, the Avalon may be a beast (power consumption / size), but that's a really clean case and internal layout.   Now, let's see if it can perform, and if Jeff can post a review prior to the opening of pre-order batch #2   This drama is just too good - and for that alone, thanks to team Avalon!    

[iCEBREAKER]

Now, let's see if it can perform, and if Jeff can post a review prior to the opening of pre-order batch #2   This drama is just too good - and for that alone, thanks to team Avalon!    

Hear, hear!  This season of All My Bitcoins is turning out to be a smash hit.  The upcoming difficulty doubling episode is even more exciting than the block halving!

I will never forget where I was when Jeff posted pics of the first consumer ASIC.

Best drama around, besides Utopia of course.

[Beepbop]

Why does everything need to be ordered right away?  Let the first shipment go out, take a break.  There's no rush to start a second batch. 

There is a huge rush for both them and their customers, to get mining before the difficulty goes up or Bitcoin gets hit with some unpredictable event, like another flash crash, flaw found in the protocol, or MtGox raided, Silk Road shut down, or whatever. It's a bit like an arms race.

[Beepbop]

Look at my first point. For the info we had 2 hours ago, it was a certain scam. Now everything changed.

So it's Schrödingers box of fans: It both is and is not a certain scam at the same time, but when you open the box it has to be one or the other.

[hardcore-fs]

Idiot........

http://garzikrants.blogspot.se

[Beepbop]

I hope you're not referring to me, because if you look over my post history, I thought Avalon ASICs were legit.

[mrb]

Most critics did not say there is a "chance". They said with absolute certainty "it is a scam". Cedivad included: check his thread title.

These uninformed and misguided critics have been the root cause of most of the trolling and fights on this forum.

Look at my first point. For the info we had 2 hours ago, it was a certain scam. Now everything changed.

You were poorly informed, because multiple details apparently unknown to you indicated that Avalon was likely legit:
- history of the guys, long-term members of this community (ngzhang and yifu had made and sold fpga devices, I personally bought fpgas from yifu)
- very conservative and plausible power consumption (150 Mhash/Joule)
- old 110nm tech, easier to design at than 65nm

I replied to your points of concern, but you seem to have ignored or not seen them:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139725.msg1489135#msg1489135

I guess I am more interested in the psychology of this debate: what could we have said differently that would have changed your mind, that perhaps Avalon was legit? I am sure this boils down to poor communication and sharing of information between forum members. I am trying to understand how the communication can be improved. Because if it can be improved, there would be a lot fewer debates and arguments on these forums, hence it would improve the quality of the forum as a whole (and I am really interested in improving it.)