Avalon is (unfortunately) a scam. Here is why.

[creativex]

How would fewer debates and arguments improve anything? The salient points nearly always spring from the passionate debates/arguments.

Congrats Avalon, I haven't had much time to look over Jeff's posts yet, but the product he received looks very impressive.

[mrb]

How would fewer debates and arguments improve anything? The salient points nearly always spring from the passionate debates/arguments.

Congrats Avalon, I haven't had much time to look over Jeff's posts yet, but the product he received looks very impressive.

Yes, salient points come out of passionate debates. What I meant to say is that there was a lot of repetition: the same arguments, repeated over and over, with people apparently never moving forward.

[cedivad]

Most critics did not say there is a "chance". They said with absolute certainty "it is a scam". Cedivad included: check his thread title.

These uninformed and misguided critics have been the root cause of most of the trolling and fights on this forum.

Look at my first point. For the info we had 2 hours ago, it was a certain scam. Now everything changed.

You were poorly informed, because multiple details apparently unknown to you indicated that Avalon was likely legit:
- history of the guys, long-term members of this community (ngzhang and yifu had made and sold fpga devices, I personally bought fpgas from yifu)
- very conservative and plausible power consumption (150 Mhash/Joule)
- old 110nm tech, easier to design at than 65nm

I replied to your points of concern, but you seem to have ignored or not seen them:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=139725.msg1489135#msg1489135

I guess I am more interested in the psychology of this debate: what could we have said differently that would have changed your mind, that perhaps Avalon was legit? I am sure this boils down to poor communication and sharing of information between forum members. I am trying to understand how the communication can be improved. Because if it can be improved, there would be a lot fewer debates and arguments on these forums, hence it would improve the quality of the forum as a whole (and I am really interested in improving it.)

Not sure if trolling me or what. I knew that, however BFL has possible numbers, an history as FPGA maker and yet to ship. bAsics, almost the same. The whole forum was sure that this was a scam, the FACT that we where told lies is enought to prove it: why the Chinese customers didn't get their units if the only problem what to pass Chinese customs? Do we really belive that, again? They have problems they don't wont to admit with this avalon. Full point.
The million dollar they will get tomorrow will most probably fix these problems.

I think that you are the uninformed.

Edit, yes, I readed your post at the time but didn't tought it was worth replying. Everyone belive what they want to belive, you are one of the guys that would have paid in btc even without Jeff receiving its unit. You cannot say that hey, they just started shipping to Chinese customers, you can't except them to already have them. Yes, not in 3 days, but what about 2 weeks? Seriously? Also, the lack of the video, how do you seriously justify it? It dosent make any sense. Sorry, I'm from my phone and don't have the time right now to answer properly. I hope to have made a few points anyway.

[mrb]

Not sure if trolling me or what. I knew that, however BFL has possible numbers, an history as FPGA maker and yet to ship. bAsics, almost the same. The whole forum was sure that this was a scam, the FACT that we where told lies is enought to prove it: why the Chinese customers didn't get their units if the only problem what to pass Chinese customs? Do we really belive that, again? They have problems they don't wont to admit with this avalon. Full point.
The million dollar they will get tomorrow will most probably fix these problems.

I think that you are the uninformed.

Edit, yes, I readed your post at the time but didn't tought it was worth replying. Everyone belive what they want to belive, you are one of the guys that would have paid in btc even without Jeff receiving its unit. You cannot say that hey, they just started shipping to Chinese customers, you can't except them to already have them. Yes, not in 3 days, but what about 2 weeks? Seriously? Also, the lack of the video, how do you seriously justify it? It dosent make any sense. Sorry, I'm from my phone and don't have the time right now to answer properly. I hope to have made a few points anyway.

That's ok, take your time to reply when you are in front of a PC.

- "the whole forum was sure this was a scam" -> On the contrary, if you read the forums carefully you will find a very small number of critics with no credibility, and/or a history of trolling, making a lot of posts, but there is a much larger number of supporters (older accounts with more credence) who only defend ASIC vendors occasionally. The mere fact that BFL has so many preorders proves the large number of believers/supporters (and yes some of these customers in line are here just for the quick money and have no idea of the risks) - this is one of the reasons I say you are misinformed, because you failed to distinguish the general opinion of the forum members - but this is not your fault - it takes a lot of time to sift through the posts to filter out who can be trusted, who has the credentials, what information is important, etc

- "Chinese customers not speaking" -> firstly it is likely that ngzhang/yifu has literally just RUSHED a handful of units to the world so far, and that not a single Chinese customer was in this first shipped group (the bitcoin community is small in China compared to the rest of the world), plus there is the language barrier and they frequent different Bitcoin-related sites (have you seen the ridiculously small number of members posting in the Chinese subforum of bitcointalk.org?)

- "lack of video" -> If you were infomed, you would know that Yifu has explained they don't want to waste time trying to argue with critics, by providing videos, pictures, and so on, and that they would rather simply let the customers provide reviews/credibility. Again - not your fault to not know that - Yifu's post explaining their stance was buried deep in a thread.

Really I am asking you the question: is there anything we could have said that would have convinced you? Pointing out the top 10 most relevant posts from Yifu/ngzhang? Again I am just interested in the psychological aspects of the debate - sorry if you think I am trolling.

[Bicknellski]

Some vindication... let's continue to watch as more and more units come online over the next few weeks. That makes you feel better I bet Avalon... but you knew it would happen and if you
were able to read between the lines you could see that the building frustration and anxiety in the posts by BitSyncom was to me a dead give away this guys gives a shit about his product. You can't fake that sort of thing. He is invested and it comes through in his posts. Not a SCAM. Now let's see what BFL has to offer it's believers.

[bitmar]

Does anyone know if Jeff was testing on "test net" without access to the Internet ? Avalon rig, may only be a controller for FPGA mine in China ( it's simple to implement). I know it sounds stupidly  but it should be the last final test. Jeff, if you're reading this, please check it.

[Bicknellski]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

[Korbman]

- "the whole forum was sure this was a scam" -> On the contrary, if you read the forums carefully you will find a very small number of critics with no credibility, and/or a history of trolling, making a lot of posts, but there is a much larger number of supporters (older accounts with more credence) who only defend ASIC vendors occasionally. The mere fact that BFL has so many preorders proves the large number of believers/supporters (and yes some of these customers in line are here just for the quick money and have no idea of the risks) - this is one of the reasons I say you are misinformed, because you failed to distinguish the general opinion of the forum members - but this is not your fault - it takes a lot of time to sift through the posts to filter out who can be trusted, who has the credentials, what information is important, etc

Actually it's been the opposite in this case. A number of veterans here cast doubt over Avalon as a result of their sudden "BFL like" behavior, which is a lot more than I can say about the nonsense that surrounded BFL for quite some time. Avalon started out with some transparency, but when it came time to package and ship they suddenly went secretive. That's never usually a good sign, and resulted in quite a bit of reasonable unease. It was the "newbie" accounts that kept popping up noting Avalon wasn't a scam and that we were overreacting.

Given the information (or lack thereof) we had available to us, I found the unease and pessimistic speculation justified, if not warranted. People can only make informed decisions with information...take that away and we're left with our imaginations.

[Korbman]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency, eh? Funny, coming from the guy who's account is a month old...

[Bicknellski]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency, eh? Funny, coming from the guy who's account is a month old...

You do know it is a forum and one can read past posts right? What does having a one month old account have to do with making an assessment based on the characteristics of the posts being made? BitSyncom from the earliest posts was pretty matter of fact about what he was proposing and why even though they were behind other teams was willing to go forward basically because there needed to be others in the ASIC game. I don't get why people would immediately jump to wild speculation considering the measured way things progressed in the forum posts. Go through and just read it. Unfortunately a lot of what is posted on top of the Avalon threads is not worth the time to read. This thread though certainly made me stand up and notice that BitSyncom was at wits end and was dying for some vindication. Good he got some... let's hope there is more to come.

Unlike many who seem to have vested interest in the outcome of this "scam" I do not. I think that gives me a different perspective than most who post here. Maybe being a NUB in this case is a good thing. Seems as if many people simply enjoy stirring the pot or are wildly over invested making claims and statements that have no basis if fact. Speculation is no matter how reasoned is still speculation. The guys from Avalon had experience had shipped other units in the past and have had a long history in Bitcoin. Why would I jump on board with the rest of the naysayers? Better to be pessimistic and as well informed as possible rather than speculating wildly with no evidence. They shipped... so just wait... that was the right response... considering the amount of information posted by BitSyncom and the track record of BitSyncom one could have easily waited patiently... seems to me there was anxiety produced without any evidence.

[greyhawk]

Does anyone know if Jeff was testing on "test net" without access to the Internet ? Avalon rig, may only be a controller for FPGA mine in China ( it's simple to implement). I know it sounds stupidly  but it should be the last final test. Jeff, if you're reading this, please check it.

Yeah, also what if Avalon's are secretly not miners at all but are instead signalling the K'Thai-Gedek from Proxima Centauri that the time for the strikefleet to march has come?

[nbtcminer]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency of a post doesn't mean anything. I could be consistently helpful for a year and then suddenly become an asshole. That doesn't mean I was / will always be right on what I'm saying. I only felt the need to come back and defend myself (since I'm one of those who was a doubter) since the situation up to yesterday was doubtful at best and scammy at worst. A good business leader / marketer/ customer will walk away from this whole mess having learned that:

1.) As a business representative, you shouldn't tell the public one thing and then not live up to it; it breeds distrust. (I'm talking about the live demo)

2.) Doing a second round of orders (100% down) before anyone gets round one is probably a bad idea. We're still in the wildwest of BTC mining here and anything that smells like a scam has to scrutinized for others to know about.

3.) Business reps should not take things personally and get angry over accusations that their product isn't shipping / no one has it yet. The whole lack of tracking numbers / JGarzik not knowing where his package was lead to a lot of people getting concerned over (what has now turned out to be) nothing.

Now I have already applauded BitSyncom and team Avalon on shipping their first unit and I look forward to them shipping more units from Batch 1 & 2. However that doesn't mean that my concerns as a customer wasn't warranted or justified; it just means I'm less worried now that there is more proof in the market that their products exist and work. Cavet Emptor ("Buyer Beware") is a motto has served buyers for centuries and will likely do so well into our future. You should consider the feelings of the other side and see that their actions might not have been malicious but actually that of worried current or potential customers.

[Bicknellski]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency of a post doesn't mean anything. I could be consistently helpful for a year and then suddenly become an asshole. That doesn't mean I was / will always be right on what I'm saying. I only felt the need to come back and defend myself (since I'm one of those who was a doubter) since the situation up to yesterday was doubtful at best and scammy at worst. A good business leader / marketer/ customer will walk away from this whole mess having learned that:

1.) As a business representative, you shouldn't tell the public one thing and then not live up to it; it breeds distrust. (I'm talking about the live demo)

2.) Doing a second round of orders (100% down) before anyone gets round one is probably a bad idea. We're still in the wildwest of BTC mining here and anything that smells like a scam has to scrutinized for others to know about.

3.) Business reps should not take things personally and get angry over accusations that their product isn't shipping / no one has it yet. The whole lack of tracking numbers / JGarzik not knowing where his package was lead to a lot of people getting concerned over (what has now turned out to be) nothing.

Now I have already applauded BitSyncom and team Avalon on shipping their first unit and I look forward to them shipping more units from Batch 1 & 2. However that doesn't mean that my concerns as a customer wasn't warranted or justified; it just means I'm less worried now that there is more proof in the market that their products exist and work. Cavet Emptor ("Buyer Beware") is a motto has served buyers for centuries and will likely do so well into our future. You should consider the feelings of the other side and see that their actions might not have been malicious but actually that of worried current or potential customers.

Could careless who is offended. The posts put forth a good argument that Avalon was capable and knowlegable and had a history in Bitcoin. Those who seemed to fan the flames of doubt based all their concerns on nothing more than speculation. Again too many of you people seem overly invested in BFL camp or the AVALON camp to really get any perspective. Again I posted yesterday that it is buyer beware... and that is a risk you can make if you know that losing 1500 USD is ok. It is laughable how many different theories were put out as to why Avalon hadn't shipped yet. Laughable. It was pure entertainment but you know what. BitSyncom wasn't laughing... he got pissed and that is understandable given the number of purely idiotic posts and accusations that were made. If you can't see that then you are part of the problem I guess.

[axus]

I posted in the Avalon apology thread.  I was wrong, they didn't scam anyone.  However, it remains to be seen how they handle problems with the initial units.  But now people can place an order knowing that it's possible, and very likely that they will not be ripped off.

[Bicknellski]

There is no evidence whether BFL or Avalon are scams.

They both could be, they both could not be.

But, I don't agree with throwing one under the bus for that reason without solid evidence.

Why can't we wait a week to see if anyone receives an ASIC before making these types of threads?

Not everyone wanted to speculate... some seemed to agree that being patient was the right tactic.

[Korbman]

What does having a one month old account have to do with making an assessment based on the characteristics of the posts being made?

[...]

I don't get why people would immediately jump to wild speculation considering the measured way things progressed in the forum posts.

Seems you just answered your own question..though I'm still unsure if you're a puppet account or not. Anyway, I was pointing out that a lack of substantial existence in this community (as in any community really) generally leads to naive posts...solely because you haven't become as skeptical as the rest of us. The world of Bitcoin isn't nearly as forgiving as a regulated market.

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency of a post doesn't mean anything. I could be consistently helpful for a year and then suddenly become an asshole. That doesn't mean I was / will always be right on what I'm saying. I only felt the need to come back and defend myself (since I'm one of those who was a doubter) since the situation up to yesterday was doubtful at best and scammy at worst. A good business leader / marketer/ customer will walk away from this whole mess having learned that:

1.) As a business representative, you shouldn't tell the public one thing and then not live up to it; it breeds distrust. (I'm talking about the live demo)

2.) Doing a second round of orders (100% down) before anyone gets round one is probably a bad idea. We're still in the wildwest of BTC mining here and anything that smells like a scam has to scrutinized for others to know about.

3.) Business reps should not take things personally and get angry over accusations that their product isn't shipping / no one has it yet. The whole lack of tracking numbers / JGarzik not knowing where his package was lead to a lot of people getting concerned over (what has now turned out to be) nothing.

Now I have already applauded BitSyncom and team Avalon on shipping their first unit and I look forward to them shipping more units from Batch 1 & 2. However that doesn't mean that my concerns as a customer wasn't warranted or justified; it just means I'm less worried now that there is more proof in the market that their products exist and work. Cavet Emptor ("Buyer Beware") is a motto has served buyers for centuries and will likely do so well into our future. You should consider the feelings of the other side and see that their actions might not have been malicious but actually that of worried current or potential customers.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[creativex]

There is no SCAM.

Ah, nice. You must have quite a bit more information at hand than hundreds of the rest of us. Care to explain?

The consistency of BitSyncom posts warranted the THERE IS NO SCAM comment.

Consistency of a post doesn't mean anything. I could be consistently helpful for a year and then suddenly become an asshole. That doesn't mean I was / will always be right on what I'm saying. I only felt the need to come back and defend myself (since I'm one of those who was a doubter) since the situation up to yesterday was doubtful at best and scammy at worst. A good business leader / marketer/ customer will walk away from this whole mess having learned that:

1.) As a business representative, you shouldn't tell the public one thing and then not live up to it; it breeds distrust. (I'm talking about the live demo)

2.) Doing a second round of orders (100% down) before anyone gets round one is probably a bad idea. We're still in the wildwest of BTC mining here and anything that smells like a scam has to scrutinized for others to know about.

3.) Business reps should not take things personally and get angry over accusations that their product isn't shipping / no one has it yet. The whole lack of tracking numbers / JGarzik not knowing where his package was lead to a lot of people getting concerned over (what has now turned out to be) nothing.

Now I have already applauded BitSyncom and team Avalon on shipping their first unit and I look forward to them shipping more units from Batch 1 & 2. However that doesn't mean that my concerns as a customer wasn't warranted or justified; it just means I'm less worried now that there is more proof in the market that their products exist and work. Cavet Emptor ("Buyer Beware") is a motto has served buyers for centuries and will likely do so well into our future. You should consider the feelings of the other side and see that their actions might not have been malicious but actually that of worried current or potential customers.

Excellent post. There's nothing you can count on to protect you in this wide open BTC market aside from your own common sense. A large dose of skepticism is a survival necessity here. Though I'm pleased things have taken a turn for the better, Avalon was behaving in a very unprofessional manner and they had the criticism coming IMO.

[crazyates]

Though I'm pleased things have taken a turn for the better, Avalon was behaving in a very unprofessional manner and they had the criticism coming IMO.

Was? Past tense? I was relieved when they postponed the 2nd batch orders. They literally have 1 unit in customer's hands. One. Uno. Lets see a majority of those 300 units shipped, and then talk about a 2nd batch.

[creativex]

Though I'm pleased things have taken a turn for the better, Avalon was behaving in a very unprofessional manner and they had the criticism coming IMO.

Was? Past tense? I was relieved when they postponed the 2nd batch orders. They literally have 1 unit in customer's hands. One. Uno. Lets see a majority of those 300 units shipped, and then talk about a 2nd batch.

Interesting. By that logic BFL should immediately suspend new orders until they have SOMETHING shipped.

ONE >>>>>> ZERO

[creativex]

You're going to hate the third batch then.