Avalon going to cut into BFL customers pocket books?

[wndrbr3d]

SO, although I'm still a skeptic, the Avalon folks pulled through and delivered a test unit like they said, so kudos to them!

BFL currently has their estimates of shipping their first wave of products to customers February 18th. Avalon is currently (or at lest one) shipping their product to customers and delivering 65Ghash/sec per unit. They SAY they're shipping 12 per day, meaning that let's say they continue to ship between now and the 18th, that'd be 14 THash/sec added to the network before the first BFL box even leaves their facility. That would represent a 50% growth in network speed and (I'm guessing) a 50% increase in difficulty, which (I assume) would mean a 50% drop in income for BFL customers who were counting on a quick ROI assuming they'd be first to market.

Side car question: Is the assumption that the thousands (?) of ASIC miners will eventually just corner the market and split the 6 blocks per hour once GPU miners drop off due to decreased income? I couldn't find a thread that discussed.

[Carlton Banks]

Excuse me for indulging in some mild trolling outside of a designated trolling thread, but I'm willing to bet that BFL's staffing budget for their trolling accounts is going to pretty much dry up, lol

Come to think of it, where are the BFL uber Trolls? Oh yeah, they're running out of even vaguely plausible points to make, now that they're the 2nd worst performing non-deliverer (and they're still in the running for 1st place if they screw up again)

[Korbman]

To answer your subject line, no, I'm not under the impression that Avalon is going to take away from BFL customers (at least not in any substantial way).

The way I see it, Avalon is great for people getting into ASIC on a smaller scale, maybe 1 or 2 units. They're more expensive, vastly larger than BFL units, and draw more power. I've got an order in to BFL for 9 Singles and a Jalapeno..and all of them will be able to sit on a single shelf (and cooled properly at that).
I could have placed the order for 9 Avalons, but that would require a 40U server rack to hold it all...not to mention I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

To that end, Avalon is still just offering a single product, compared to BFL's variety (which can tailor to a number of financial situations). And BFL accepts a few different pay methods as well

BFL currently has their estimates of shipping their first wave of products to customers February 18th. Avalon is currently (or at lest one) shipping their product to customers and delivering 65Ghash/sec per unit. They SAY they're shipping 12 per day, meaning that let's say they continue to ship between now and the 18th, that'd be 14 THash/sec added to the network before the first BFL box even leaves their facility. That would represent a 50% growth in network speed and (I'm guessing) a 50% increase in difficulty, which (I assume) would mean a 50% drop in income for BFL customers who were counting on a quick ROI assuming they'd be first to market.

ASIC mining will be profitable even after we break into the 50m difficulty range, and long afterwards as well. Adding 14TH/s to the network isn't actually very much when taking into account all ASIC orders from all companies.

Side car question: Is the assumption that the thousands (?) of ASIC miners will eventually just corner the market and split the 6 blocks per hour once GPU miners drop off due to decreased income? I couldn't find a thread that discussed.

ASIC miners will undoubtedly take over the market and split the 6 blocks...just as thousands of GPU owners do right now.

[debianlinux]

I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

Power, measured in Watts can be expressed as Voltage multiplied by current in Amperes. So, if you know that you will be generating 3600W over a 120VAC (nominal) circuit then you can figure you will be drawing around 30A. That is not an outrageous number of Amps for a home circuit. Typical daisy-chained outlets in a room are supplied through a 15A or 20A breaker at the box. Knowing that you will be drawing at least 30A one would need to wire for likely a 60A breaker with the upgraded wiring to handle that much current. Optionally, one could spread the loads over multiple 15A or 20A circuits which would mean ASIC boxes in every room of the house but no reconfiguration of the wiring and an intimate knowledge of which outlets were on which breakers.

[Korbman]

I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

Power, measured in Watts can be expressed as Voltage multiplied by current in Amperes. So, if you know that you will be generating 3600W over a 120VAC (nominal) circuit then you can figure you will be drawing around 30A. That is not an outrageous number of Amps for a home circuit. Typical daisy-chained outlets in a room are supplied through a 15A or 20A breaker at the box. Knowing that you will be drawing at least 30A one would need to wire for likely a 60A breaker with the upgraded wiring to handle that much current. Optionally, one could spread the loads over multiple 15A or 20A circuits which would mean ASIC boxes in every room of the house but no reconfiguration of the wiring and an intimate knowledge of which outlets were on which breakers.

Ah! Good to know, thanks for that.

Thankfully I didn't order 9 Avalons, or else I might be in an interesting electrical situation haha.

[Fuzzy]

If BFL can hit even close to 1W/Gh efficiency, and fit a whopping 60Gh into the that small sandwich box, then I'll be replacing any Avalons I have with BFLs.

After the customer service ordeal with Avalon's Batch 2, I really don't want to deal with them if I have an alternative. I just wish BFL offered standalone units for under $2k 

[loshia]

I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

Power, measured in Watts can be expressed as Voltage multiplied by current in Amperes. So, if you know that you will be generating 3600W over a 120VAC (nominal) circuit then you can figure you will be drawing around 30A. That is not an outrageous number of Amps for a home circuit. Typical daisy-chained outlets in a room are supplied through a 15A or 20A breaker at the box. Knowing that you will be drawing at least 30A one would need to wire for likely a 60A breaker with the upgraded wiring to handle that much current. Optionally, one could spread the loads over multiple 15A or 20A circuits which would mean ASIC boxes in every room of the house but no reconfiguration of the wiring and an intimate knowledge of which outlets were on which breakers.

Ah! Good to know, thanks for that.

Thankfully I didn't order 9 Avalons, or else I might be in an interesting electrical situation haha.

Dude,
You are already in interesting BTC situation. I assume that you are BFL BTC paying customer. So if you want a refund now you will loose about 80% of your initial investment (because of BTC exchange rate and no full BTC refund). Correct? I guess yes. You have no other option expect to wait. Right? For how long - only good knows and of course i forgot Josh also. Imagine that he got flat tire wile trawling to the fab it will be national disaster i guess. And for sure it will cost a week or two of additional delay.

And the electrical disaster is much more profitable now. And will be.

Tell you the truth i feel that BFL and BTCFPGA are no different they all depend on China because they do not have the skills and knowledge to make it. And more over both companies are/were(BTCFPGA) willing to to deliver with honesty - no sarcasm here, but they just got fucked up by their partners. No matter how good you are in business the Chinese borders got the technology, they take you 100% money upfront and make you wait as long as tey want. It is not uncommon at all. That is what exactly happening here. Tom played wrong made a couple of promises and he is history. BFL is still here and for sure they will deliver some day. but it will be after CNY for sure and long after electrical disaster which has to be history by then:)

[PuertoLibre]

I'm not entirely sure my house is laid out to supply 3600watts over an outlet (though I know zip about electrical engineering, so maybe someone could enlighten me here).

Power, measured in Watts can be expressed as Voltage multiplied by current in Amperes. So, if you know that you will be generating 3600W over a 120VAC (nominal) circuit then you can figure you will be drawing around 30A. That is not an outrageous number of Amps for a home circuit. Typical daisy-chained outlets in a room are supplied through a 15A or 20A breaker at the box. Knowing that you will be drawing at least 30A one would need to wire for likely a 60A breaker with the upgraded wiring to handle that much current. Optionally, one could spread the loads over multiple 15A or 20A circuits which would mean ASIC boxes in every room of the house but no reconfiguration of the wiring and an intimate knowledge of which outlets were on which breakers.

Ah! Good to know, thanks for that.

Thankfully I didn't order 9 Avalons, or else I might be in an interesting electrical situation haha.

If BFL customers consider that Avalon is upgradable (to what extent remains a question), then they may take a second look.

Assuming all modules in an Avalon case are exactly identical to each other. Then I can start mining at 65Gh/s~70Gh/s.

When the upgrades are released by Avalon, I'll have an upgrade path. With BFL none, except buying a very expensive second unit by comparison.

I can put in an order for (possibly) $350 and upgrade my units up to 90Gh/s. Do you think BFL will ramp up their small box/clamshell configuration to run up to 90Gh/s?

I don't think they will.

-----------------------

Here is the kicker though. Some Avalon users will not upgrade their internals. So as Avalon slowly moves from 110nm to 90nm or however low they need to in the future. The power draw will decrease and the GH/s per chip increases.

Assuming they have 25 chips in one unit. A small additional capacity change multiplied by (let say) 25 will result in a huge increase in speed and higher efficiency per box.

I can then sell off my old Rev1 modules to other miner who want to upgrade their 65~70Gh/s stock unit up to 90Gh/s.

I only need to pay the difference in price between the used modules and the newer Rev2 modules. Depending on the market price that could be, perhaps, 150$ extra out of my pocket for each Rev2 module.

If the current (REV 1) modules are 22Gh/s each, and the second gen (REV 2) modules jump to 30Gh/s or more. Can you guess how much I saved vs buying another BFL unit priced at $1299?

Lets say 30 x 4 = 120Gh/s for an upgrade path.
Lets say I had to pay a difference of $150 for each additional module.
So that is about $600 total to double the GH/s capacity.

What will BFL do? Slash prices?

Ouch, their first run customers would be screaming at the top of their lungs if they did that.

-------------------

The silence "sounds" to me like BFL is in the backroom talking about the "issue" before them.

Expect promises to come quickly, and actual changes very slowly.

Heh.

------------------

They have 8 chps and they can only overclock them so much before they seriously cut into the thermal headroom for normal operations. Lets see how big a jump they go to after 60Gh/s.

With more money and time, Avalons upgrade-able units will eventually drop in power use I'd bet.

What you should worry about is having to pay a whole $1300 + Shipping for an entirely different unit from BFL to keep up. Either way, competition is good.

[Fuzzy]

[...] BFL is in the backroom talking about the "issue" before them.

Expect promises to come quickly, and actual changes very slowly.

[...]

As a great man once said, "True dat!".

[PuertoLibre]

This also creates quite the quandary for BFL MiniRig Owners.

They already had their units upgraded by 50%. Though they (BFL) ate through thermal headroom and power capacity built into the MiniRig to do that.

Now a few BFL MiniRig customers are asking about how they are going to power this rig from a standard wall outlet. So far silence on the subject last I checked.

If BFL raises the GH/s of one Single. Guess what?

MiniRig customers are going to complain their purchases are being diluted (@ $30k) and they want the 24 boards in the MiniRig to be just as fast.

--------------------------

The problem is of course that BFL bought those pretty expensive EVGA power supplies. Really expensive units and hardly with any discounts according to Josh from BFL.

Now what? Where do they get the extra power from? A second Power Supply? How?

What kind of wall outlet will the customer of the MiniRig need if they jump each board from 60Gh/s to 90Gh/s?

Upgrades like that aren't free you know!

There are a boatload of issues to be considered very carefully. Or people will start demanding partial refunds...if not full refunds (I doubt the latter though).

[creativex]

I believe Avalon has put BFL in a tough spot. Miners and BTC in general are likely to benefit from the competition.

[crazyates]

If BFL customers consider that Avalon is upgradable (to what extent remains a question), then they may take a second look.

Assuming all modules in an Avalon case are exactly identical to each other. Then I can start mining at 65Gh/s~70Gh/s.

When the upgrades are released by Avalon, I'll have an upgrade path. With BFL none, except buying a very expensive second unit by comparison.

Are you forgetting that BFL offers a 100% trade-up program for FPGA to ASICs? And they've said that they will prolly do another similar trade-up program for 2nd gen ASICs? So how exactly does BFL have an inferior upgrade path?

Avalon: I get to buy more hardware and manually swap out the ASIC chips myself. Lucky me!
BFL: I get to mail them my old miner for a massive discount towards a new miner. Lucky me!

[michaelmclees]

It will depend on BFL having any more delays.  If there are no more delays and BFL is able to build and ship quickly enough, they may survive this blow.  If they have to delay another couple weeks or a month (with Avalon then opening up batches 3 and 4, no doubt bigger than 1 and 2), I think the demand for refunds would be catastrophic.

[PuertoLibre]

If BFL customers consider that Avalon is upgradable (to what extent remains a question), then they may take a second look.

Assuming all modules in an Avalon case are exactly identical to each other. Then I can start mining at 65Gh/s~70Gh/s.

When the upgrades are released by Avalon, I'll have an upgrade path. With BFL none, except buying a very expensive second unit by comparison.

Are you forgetting that BFL offers a 100% trade-up program for FPGA to ASICs? And they've said that they will prolly do another similar trade-up program for 2nd gen ASICs? So how exactly does BFL have an inferior upgrade path?

Avalon: I get to buy more hardware and manually swap out the ASIC chips myself. Lucky me!
BFL: I get to mail them my old miner for a massive discount towards a new miner. Lucky me!

Well that just means Gen 2 is going to be a helluva lot more expensive, doesn't it?

What happens if the dillute the cost of each GH/s so rapidly that Gen 2 has to be uber powered in order for them to sell it as an upgrade (even with a trade in).

It is complicated game of fumbling with numbers. I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

[crazyates]

I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

[creativex]

I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

LOL

That's taking the low road. Is that a movie quote? Sounds vaguely familiar.

[Tomatocage]

Seeing as how I'll be late to the ASIC game no matter which vendor I choose to do business with, I think I'm going to go with BFL because their units look better. That's about all I've got to go on lol

[crazyates]

I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

LOL

That's taking the low road. Is that a movie quote? Sounds vaguely familiar.

As low as they go.  No, no movie quote. Just me being a douche.

[Korbman]

It will depend on BFL having any more delays.  If there are no more delays and BFL is able to build and ship quickly enough, they may survive this blow.  If they have to delay another couple weeks or a month (with Avalon then opening up batches 3 and 4, no doubt bigger than 1 and 2), I think the demand for refunds would be catastrophic.

Seems about right. Avalon may have shipped one unit so far, but it won't start to actually matter until they start getting pallets out the door at a time. Nevertheless, BFL can't risk falling behind again.

I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

My goodness that was a good laugh...disturbing..but good.

[creativex]

It will depend on BFL having any more delays.  If there are no more delays and BFL is able to build and ship quickly enough, they may survive this blow.  If they have to delay another couple weeks or a month (with Avalon then opening up batches 3 and 4, no doubt bigger than 1 and 2), I think the demand for refunds would be catastrophic.

Seems about right. Avalon may have shipped one unit so far, but it won't start to actually matter until they start getting pallets out the door at a time. Nevertheless, BFL can't risk falling behind again.

I would hate to be Josh's calculator right now.

Lies. You'd love his fingers all over you, wouldn't you? Pushing your buttons and poking all the right places. You disgust me.

My goodness that was a good laugh...disturbing..but good.

I think you're kidding yourself. That single ASIC hashing on slush is a huge blow to BFL and their customers investors.