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Author Topic: Where do you think we are in the bubble?  (Read 9780 times)
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January 31, 2013, 08:50:36 PM
 #21



Are you predicting a rise to 80 - 100 USD before the bear market, because that is what this chart comparison seems to indicate?

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January 31, 2013, 09:24:07 PM
 #22

Charts are great - but we aren't in a bubble here - This is the expected result of the block reward halving should level off at some point soon (between 24 and 30).

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January 31, 2013, 09:25:39 PM
 #23

Charts are great - but we aren't in a bubble here - This is the expected result of the block reward halving should level off at some point soon (between 24 and 30).


? We all knew the block reward was coming.  Its not like everyone is just realizing it.
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January 31, 2013, 09:27:16 PM
 #24

Charts are great - but we aren't in a bubble here - This is the expected result of the block reward halving should level off at some point soon (between 24 and 30).


? We all knew the block reward was coming.  Its not like everyone is just realizing it.

We knew it happened, but did we realize the effects? Did we know what to feel? I don't think we can until it's happened at least once (this last drop). Next time it'll be factored in more tightly, as in it won't have such a lagged cause-effect reaction.

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January 31, 2013, 09:50:50 PM
 #25

Charts are great - but we aren't in a bubble here - This is the expected result of the block reward halving should level off at some point soon (between 24 and 30).


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

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February 01, 2013, 01:48:53 AM
 #26

As long as Ben do not tighten, exchange price will rise

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February 01, 2013, 04:40:21 AM
 #27


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

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February 01, 2013, 04:55:27 AM
 #28

I don't know if we've reached the first selloff........or if that was the $14 13 range

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February 01, 2013, 05:02:15 AM
 #29

the effects of the rewards being halved were bought into the system long before it happened, this is why we left the 5 dollar zone.

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February 01, 2013, 08:32:24 AM
 #30

We may not have entered the bubble phase yet, as long as we get a correction every two days. In a bubble there would be nearly no correction until the busting.

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February 01, 2013, 08:33:49 AM
 #31

In the beginning of the slope:









from:  The Autodesk File - (1994) - by founder and former CEO John Walker

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February 01, 2013, 08:53:32 AM
 #32

I can't help myself being amused by some of the replys in this thread.

Bitcoin, as an oposition to the manipulated markets, wrecked by the banks, should at least make people think about the psycology of speculation.

Ofcause this is a bubble! The question is when we have seen the apex of it!


 
 
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February 01, 2013, 09:17:24 AM
 #33

In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.

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February 01, 2013, 09:40:34 AM
 #34

In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.

You are right in the sense that the only panic buying of the latest, was from Gox Dollar accounts plus some additional 10-15% new cash.

However there are wallets out there with people that mined a little or much in 2009-2010, and they might feel it is worth while to register with Gox now and collect!

The sideways periods are a good detector for old coins going into circulation, so if we stay at around 20 for a week or three, I will consider your assumption right.

What you describe is a hype bubble, but all bubbles are, when they start to decline the asset was overvalued i.e. an unfunded hype.

I'm not saying that the price now is unsustainable or that we are going to see a crash soon, just that it will go down again. The cycle lows are usually a better indicator of support than the peaks.


 
 
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February 01, 2013, 10:20:49 AM
 #35

In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.

You are right in the sense that the only panic buying of the latest, was from Gox Dollar accounts plus some additional 10-15% new cash.

However there are wallets out there with people that mined a little or much in 2009-2010, and they might feel it is worth while to register with Gox now and collect!

The sideways periods are a good detector for old coins going into circulation, so if we stay at around 20 for a week or three, I will consider your assumption right.

What you describe is a hype bubble, but all bubbles are, when they start to decline the asset was overvalued i.e. an unfunded hype.

I'm not saying that the price now is unsustainable or that we are going to see a crash soon, just that it will go down again. The cycle lows are usually a better indicator of support than the peaks.

I could agree with many of the things you said, but what I think we should really be aware of is that when the people on this forum talk about "Bubble", what they most likely have somewhere in their minds a specific phenomenon they have seen before, thus I think it is worth pointing out the difference between what we are seeing now and "that" phenomenon.

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February 01, 2013, 01:29:45 PM
 #36

Oh, that bubble. Yes the viability of Bitcoin itself was in question as if the whole thing was a fad.


 
 
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February 02, 2013, 12:56:05 AM
 #37

There was a 3millionUSD red volume bar at 17 and the price broke UP. Comparing the bitcoin market of today and the market of a year ago is pointless. The price is not set by the past, and moreover, even if one wished to draw a "trend", the fundamentals are way different. The network has survived examination by a cadre of nerds and hackers. A gambling site profited 400,000USD in 1 month with AN OVERHEAD OF $1200, a drug bazzar operates openly on the darknet. ETC ETC ETC.

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February 02, 2013, 12:59:40 AM
 #38

Oh, that bubble. Yes the viability of Bitcoin itself was in question as if the whole thing was a fad.
Heh. I'm glad people think that was a bubble. I am buying all the bitcoin I can as fast as I can, and will until I no longer need to.

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
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February 02, 2013, 07:51:59 AM
 #39

Charts are great - but we aren't in a bubble here - This is the expected result of the block reward halving should level off at some point soon (between 24 and 30).


? We all knew the block reward was coming.  Its not like everyone is just realizing it.

Before block reward, miners had twice the amount of BTC to sell.. Now that half is generated, this put a significant upward presure..

Before halving, most big sell pushing down were from miner.. those big sell are halve ...  Look at the chart since the halving.. it's obvious..

Ok, investor/speculator have tought about the incomming halving.. but IMO, this halving had remove half of the downward presure.

A miner should sell the same % of mined coin, before and after the halving.   It's in %.. Like all those nice chart that are paste here and there, all are in unit... they sould be in % (log)..  Much more realistic..

Everyone calling for a bubble, should look in the % (Log) chart for a more realistic, mathematic, investor POV !

Log scale should be the norm... not unit scale !
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February 02, 2013, 07:59:32 AM
 #40


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

All Data Log



No bubble here..

Look, swings already get a lot milder, I dont see an overshoot yet...

I'm a bit desperate, when do the BTC community will understand that log (%) scale charts are much more appropriate !  o.O
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