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Author Topic: Where do you think we are in the bubble?  (Read 9791 times)
evolve
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January 31, 2013, 04:03:26 PM
 #1



I'm thinking somewhere between "greed" and "delusion"....
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January 31, 2013, 04:13:55 PM
 #2

Well we just had media attention a couple days ago hahah.
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January 31, 2013, 04:39:42 PM
 #3

-Bernanke doubled down on money printing last December
-the block reward dropped to 25 BTC per coin

The value of coins was ~11-12 USD in December - based on that we'll need to get to ~$40 before a new bubble even starts.
evolve
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January 31, 2013, 04:48:05 PM
 #4

Inflation rate in jan was 1.7%  (which is low)

Mining is only done by a subsection of the community (and increasingly less as the arms race builds with asics and beyond) so block rewards have negligible effect on the price IMO. (as a speculator, the block reward has no bearing on how I trade)


I think the bubble began when we broke double digits.  I also think the stagnancy at $5 happened for a reason, and we will be back there by the years end.
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January 31, 2013, 05:12:20 PM
 #5

We are getting close to the transition between Stealth phase and Awareness phase. Ready for take off Wink

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January 31, 2013, 05:25:25 PM
 #6

If this is a bubble, I think the farthest we are is just past the "media attention" elbow. That happened a few days ago (the Chart of the Day article - our Forbes blogger doesn't count).

Then again, this might just be a rally - in which case, sure, there'll be a correction, but it probably won't follow your chart.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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January 31, 2013, 05:29:15 PM
 #7

Inflation rate in jan was 1.7%  (which is low)


It only measures at 1.7% because the excess isn't going in to food much yet. Is there a bitcoin in their basket?

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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January 31, 2013, 05:31:07 PM
 #8

Sorry we already passed that chart two years ago. Wandering into uncharted territory to the right now...

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January 31, 2013, 05:34:13 PM
 #9

I don't care where we are in the bubble anymore.

I have neutralized my initial investment, and I can hold my Bitcoins through whatever comes.

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January 31, 2013, 05:59:03 PM
 #10

"Media attention" phase methinks. Not sure but I think the overall sentiment is very similar to what it was around late April/early May 2011. Many people were still expecting the return back to sub-$1 prices.

This time, I think highest we might go could be bit over $100, likely much lower though. The correction will be huge, of course.
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January 31, 2013, 06:10:08 PM
 #11

I think the bubble began when we broke double digits.  I also think the stagnancy at $5 happened for a reason, and we will be back there by the years end.

Would you be interested in a deal where you buy the right to sell coins to me for $8 each at the end of the year? I'm willing to denominate this in gold too and we can settle with coin if we both want or I can ship.

Play Bitcoin Poker at sealswithclubs.eu. We're active and open to everyone.
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January 31, 2013, 06:23:48 PM
 #12



after this bitcoin did one last dip under 1$ and then things got nuts.

will the same happen with 20$? Stay tune! Grin

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January 31, 2013, 06:29:54 PM
 #13

I think we are a little bit left of "takeoff".
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January 31, 2013, 07:39:44 PM
 #14



after this bitcoin did one last dip under 1$ and then things got nuts.

will the same happen with 20$? Stay tune! Grin

Just saying you are missing an important detail in this chart. I'll not tell you what it is so to not to ruin the surprise. Tongue

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they keep laughing, then they start choking on their laughter, and then they go and catch their breath. Then they start laughing even more.
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January 31, 2013, 07:44:46 PM
 #15

vokain
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January 31, 2013, 07:58:17 PM
 #16

Our little community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world is lagging slightly behind at media attention Smiley

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Peter Lambert
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January 31, 2013, 08:12:47 PM
 #17

Our little community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world is lagging slightly behind at media attention Smiley

I agree our community is at greed/enthusiasm, but the rest of the world has never heard of a bitcoin, so I would put them somewhere around the middle of "stealth phase".


Use CoinBR to trade bitcoin stocks: CoinBR.com

The best place for betting with bitcoin: BitBet.us
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January 31, 2013, 08:23:02 PM
 #18

evolve is short
thats all

charts are charts
lots of them can be made
market is market
market is always right

and your behaviour can be influenced by charts



don't let me make you question your assumptions
evolve
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January 31, 2013, 08:32:06 PM
 #19

Would you be interested in a deal where you buy the right to sell coins to me for $8 each at the end of the year? I'm willing to denominate this in gold too and we can settle with coin if we both want or I can ship.

I'm not really interested in a Futures Contract, but there is probably a good market for them here....try the goods and services subforum, you might get some bites there.

I'm in and out of the market in time to catch a crash with negligible profit losses (I stay in usd most of time) so a Futures contract wont benefit me much and doesn't mesh with my trading strategy, as I see no need to hedge.
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January 31, 2013, 08:50:16 PM
 #20



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  █
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  █
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TOR MIRROR
MIX WALLET
.FAQ
ANN THREAD
TELEGRAM
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