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Author Topic: Where do you think we are in the bubble?  (Read 9801 times)
DoomDumas
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February 02, 2013, 08:03:30 AM
 #41

In a bubble people will buy out of panic, there is not enough panic in the market yet--nothing close to what we had last time. People are still buying quite cautiously, and many are buying to spend, many are dumping, usually in huge amount, no single day long green candle yet, if this is a bubble, then perhaps all great long-term price rises should be classified as bubbles as well. I am not saying that the price would not go down, I just don't think it's a bubble-not yet.

+1
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February 02, 2013, 08:08:04 AM
 #42

People do not panic buy in a bubble (unless they're shorting, which isn't the case with bitcoin).  Never have, never will.  They only panic sell.  The buying part involves hubris and arrogance, the looking at exponential growth in charts and thinking it can only go up from here.  There's no panic involved, just greed.

The 'panic buy' meme comes from those who are already invested and want others to push the price higher.

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February 02, 2013, 08:16:24 AM
 #43

There was a 3millionUSD red volume bar at 17 and the price broke UP. Comparing the bitcoin market of today and the market of a year ago is pointless. The price is not set by the past, and moreover, even if one wished to draw a "trend", the fundamentals are way different. The network has survived examination by a cadre of nerds and hackers. A gambling site profited 400,000USD in 1 month with AN OVERHEAD OF $1200, a drug bazzar operates openly on the darknet. ETC ETC ETC.

ETC ETC = A big online gabling site is about to accept BTC, like WorldPress did.. You can now buy BTC in wallmarts, 7/11, etc..  numbers of btc-willing merchant online/offline are now doubling every few month..  halving happened, network hashing power will soar, ASIC are now fact..  peoples are more and more bored of tha banking system,..  more and more peoples are being abused of the Govt way to manage funds, taxes, unemployement numbers are cheated, CPI is way too much cheated !   Real "common" folks began to awake about all this too much faked economy..  BTC are almost unknown today !  Let see the demand in few years !  ETC ETC ETC.
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February 02, 2013, 08:18:47 AM
 #44

Oh, that bubble. Yes the viability of Bitcoin itself was in question as if the whole thing was a fad.
Heh. I'm glad people think that was a bubble. I am buying all the bitcoin I can as fast as I can, and will until I no longer need to.

+1

Me too

For at least 6 month... I'm buying BTC with all availlable spare money, in the familly budget, after food it's written Bitcoin Wink
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February 02, 2013, 08:28:32 AM
 #45

Where do you think we are in the bubble?

SELL SELL SELL!!!

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this statement is false


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February 02, 2013, 08:50:11 AM
 #46

Where do you think we are in the bubble?

SELL SELL SELL!!!

No, you should have done that two hours ago when people were saying "buy, buy, buy".

Now is when you "buy, buy, buy".

+1 we've already bounced. gotta anticipate market movements, not react to them. unless you want to be a bag holder.

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February 02, 2013, 08:57:28 AM
 #47

No, you should have done that two hours ago when people were saying "buy, buy, buy".

Now is when you "buy, buy, buy".

I know, I just wanted everyone to crash the market so I could clean up Smiley

I made 2 BTC on shorting that "bounce"  Cool

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February 02, 2013, 04:16:09 PM
 #48


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

All Data Log



No bubble here..

Look, swings already get a lot milder, I dont see an overshoot yet...

I'm a bit desperate, when do the BTC community will understand that log (%) scale charts are much more appropriate !  o.O

Been there, done that.  Log charts were all the rage in 2011.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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February 02, 2013, 05:05:52 PM
 #49

Where do you think we are in the bubble?

SELL SELL SELL!!!

No, you should have done that two hours ago when people were saying "buy, buy, buy".

Now is when you "buy, buy, buy".

+1 we've already bounced. gotta anticipate market movements, not react to them. unless you want to be a bag holder.

yes, this is what i try to do with cycle theory; it allows one to anticipate or time the turns.  its not always easy.

so you're in the bull camp now?
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February 02, 2013, 05:58:44 PM
 #50


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

All Data Log



No bubble here..

Look, swings already get a lot milder, I dont see an overshoot yet...

I'm a bit desperate, when do the BTC community will understand that log (%) scale charts are much more appropriate !  o.O

Been there, done that.  Log charts were all the rage in 2011.

Ah, but we have a longer history to put on those log charts, and doesn't it look nice, the curve is smoothing out, to me it looks like the price will stabilize somewhere between 30-100 USD per BTC.

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February 02, 2013, 06:00:42 PM
 #51


If the past is any indicator of how this market works, that leveling off will occur by overshooting the level-off point by a large margin, then undershooting it by a large margin, then bouncing around a few times before quieting down.

+1 that; BTC finds actual market price via wild swings. Hopefully, these swings would get milder with time, but for now we'll definitely overshoot.

All Data Log



No bubble here..

Look, swings already get a lot milder, I dont see an overshoot yet...

I'm a bit desperate, when do the BTC community will understand that log (%) scale charts are much more appropriate !  o.O

Been there, done that.  Log charts were all the rage in 2011.

Ah, but we have a longer history to put on those log charts, and doesn't it look nice, the curve is smoothing out, to me it looks like the price will stabilize somewhere between 30-100 USD per BTC.


I agree that is a reasonable target range, although I think (or maybe just hope) we will be a $20 long enough to pick up a few more BTC.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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this statement is false


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February 02, 2013, 07:45:11 PM
 #52

SELL SELL SELL!!!

No, you should have done that two hours ago when people were saying "buy, buy, buy".

Now is when you "buy, buy, buy".

+1 we've already bounced. gotta anticipate market movements, not react to them. unless you want to be a bag holder.

yes, this is what i try to do with cycle theory; it allows one to anticipate or time the turns.  its not always easy.

so you're in the bull camp now?

of course not. but you should certainly not sell at the bottom of the first leg of a correction. wait for a bounce, and a second top for the (lower) high.

and if you're daytrading, which could be very profitable during these times of volatility, you should buy at the microterm bottoms like the $18.00 low, again to sell at the next top before we go downside for good  Tongue

it would be hilarious if i was so terrible at analysis that i switched camps right when we've finally topped off... Grin

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February 02, 2013, 07:55:17 PM
 #53

 Typical reactions on hearing your diagnosis or that of a loved are:

    Feeling numb
    Unable to express emotion
    Anger
    Wanting more information
    Unable to take in information
    Shock
    Wanting to talk things over
    Denial
    Grief
    Fear
    Depression

However, there is a typical emotional process that most people with a terminal illness go through. In 1969, Elisabeth Kubler-Ross identified the stages of death and dying in her book ‘On Death and Dying’. The basic five stages are:

Denial - I can’t be dying.

Anger - Why me? I don't deserve to have this disease.

Bargaining - If I am good or if I give up x, then maybe I will live longer.

Depression - What is the point of carrying on?.

Acceptance - OK, I know I’m dying but I’m prepared.



 
 
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vokain
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February 02, 2013, 08:54:17 PM
 #54

Typical reactions on hearing your diagnosis or that of a loved are:

    Feeling numb
    Unable to express emotion
    Anger
    Wanting more information
    Unable to take in information
    Shock
    Wanting to talk things over
    Denial
    Grief
    Fear
    Depression

However, there is a typical emotional process that most people with a terminal illness go through. In 1969, Elisabeth Kubler-Ross identified the stages of death and dying in her book ‘On Death and Dying’. The basic five stages are:

Denial - I can’t be dying.

Anger - Why me? I don't deserve to have this disease.

Bargaining - If I am good or if I give up x, then maybe I will live longer.

Depression - What is the point of carrying on?.

Acceptance - OK, I know I’m dying but I’m prepared.


haha i like the graph. acceptance that bitcoin's goin uppp Smiley

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February 03, 2013, 12:56:27 AM
 #55

Bye, bye, fiat!



Hello, Bitcoin!

I think I'm gonna buy.

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February 03, 2013, 06:42:36 AM
 #56




interesting that there's an obvious straight line through that log chart. even the big bubble of 2011 just corrected to that line and then bitcoin continued ascent. very interesting.

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February 03, 2013, 07:49:47 AM
 #57

Could we be seeing the "Bull Trap" now? (jan 2013 dip)





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February 03, 2013, 01:43:34 PM
 #58

Could we be seeing the "Bull Trap" now? (jan 2013 dip)





In the very long run, the $32 peak is "first sell off", and the $2 dip is the "bear trap". Many early adoptors left because of the bear trap (e.g. the "Bitcoin will never reach $20 again") . We are stilling recovering from the bear trap, not even have any real media attention

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February 03, 2013, 03:34:12 PM
 #59

Sorry evolve to burst your bubble, but there is no "Jan 2013 dip". We've seen couple of sells which were bought out immediately, it is still in a steady growth. It is a very healthy sign that any acceleration (which could lead to bubble) is quickly corrected with sells. But there have been no panic selling, only steady growth. You imagine a dip when looking at 5-minute candles, but bitcoin is too volatile for that. Look at dailys.

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February 03, 2013, 03:38:11 PM
 #60

Could we be seeing the "Bull Trap" now? (jan 2013 dip)







Do you really compare every commodity or stock chart to that schematic?  For christ sake, it's a nice consensus for human emotions at various moments, but reality is quite a bit more complex than this....   I can only imagine how often you would have thought that we were in a bull trap in the earlier phases of apple (not that I am an apple fan).
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