If you had 10 million to invest... how much would you invest in btc?

[flaab]

The OP conflates investing with speculating. Bitcoins is not an investment, because it does not produce any good an service. Buying bitcoins is a speculation, because it aims to capitalize on a government-caused distortion in the marketplace known as fiat money. I allocate 10% of my portfolio for speculations, which I divide in another 10 parts as well. So, I would allocate 1% towards Bitcoin and nothing more.

[Anon136]

probably a million. Silver is my preferred asset but i would run out of places to put silver if i had 10million to spend and i prefer bitcoins to gold.

[payb.tc]

i'd probably go for 210,000 BTC, which would be a much less 'round' figure when expressed in $

[Rampion]

If I have 10 million, I am not loosing my time looking for more money, enjoy the life. If you still wants to invest, try help a good start-up.

This.

[Zomdifros]

Use my 10 million to lend another 40 million, then buy 1 million BTC.

Just kidding, investing 100k - 1 million USD is more than enough. Obviously it would be smart to buy over a period of several months. And it makes perfect sense for wealthy individuals to invest some of your money is experimental stuff like Bitcoin, simply because it is an asset class with very little correlation to more conventional assets.

[Vandroiy]

Probably less than I hold now.  I would say 5%.

Rich guy detected.

The OP conflates investing with speculating. Bitcoins is not an investment, because it does not produce any good an service. Buying bitcoins is a speculation, because it aims to capitalize on a government-caused distortion in the marketplace known as fiat money. I allocate 10% of my portfolio for speculations, which I divide in another 10 parts as well. So, I would allocate 1% towards Bitcoin and nothing more.

Pro detected.



Ya, in the end, good speculators don't like being in too deep. They say few people got rich by being in a hurry to get rich. (Though some get rich from others who are in a hurry to get rich. In both fair and fraudulent ways...)

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Probably less than I hold now.  I would say 5%.

Rich guy detected.

Um, no, not at all. I was talking percentagewise.  I have a very limited savings capital, I put in like roughly 10% and now due to appreciation its roughly 15%.

[Vandroiy]

Rich guy detected.

Um, no, not at all. I was talking percentagewise.  I have a very limited savings capital, I put in like roughly 10% and now due to appreciation its roughly 15%.

Ah, I see. I guess that's reasonable.

I wonder what peoples' tolerance in terms of "BTC overweight" is. When BTC rise in value, as you said the percentage rises as well. The multimillionaire postulated in the OP would probably also not sell right away and therefore be at a different percentage eventually.

[vokain]

$3,333,333.33

I believe in Bitcoin, but it's not wise to put all your eggs in one basket.

I most certainly wouldn't keep the rest in fiat though!

"Behold, the fool saith, "Put not all thine eggs in the one basket" - which is but a matter of saying, "Scatter your money and your attention"; but the wise man saith, "Put all your eggs in the one basket and - WATCH THAT BASKET." - Mark Twain

[johnyj]

The OP conflates investing with speculating. Bitcoins is not an investment, because it does not produce any good an service. Buying bitcoins is a speculation, because it aims to capitalize on a government-caused distortion in the marketplace known as fiat money. I allocate 10% of my portfolio for speculations, which I divide in another 10 parts as well. So, I would allocate 1% towards Bitcoin and nothing more.

What's the difference? If you invest money to produce some good and service and finally find out no one buy them, it is the same as a failed speculation, maybe worse, you have to trash those not needed goods and consider the environment impact

And, when you put money in BTC, it support the price which in turn give people confidence, isn't providing confidence of this currency a service?

BTC make people's life better, they now feel secure, it won't be inflated by FED, it can be trusted as a store of value, storing of your wealth is also a service. Banks usually provide this service but they charge you high fee, and even worse they stole your money and lend it to others and they go bankrupt and those who survived need FDIC to calm people from withdraw (In fact, there is never enough money for half of the people to withdraw)

In a fiat money world, everyone have to speculate, not making any decision itself is also a speculation: You speculate that the risk is lower when holding cash and take a loss at inflation rate

[vokain]

It's true, I do have trouble walking and chewing gum at the same time.

I'm having trouble finding safer (to me) whilst more profitable investments at the moment. Bitcoin is also something I understand a bit better than most other instruments, while I'm waiting for a formation of a downtrend before investing in equities.

[wachtwoord]

If I'd have 10$M I'd be financially independent and no way I would risk that. So the maximum would be 5%, except if it gains in value (I don't like selling to lock in gains).

[vokain]

It's true, I do have trouble walking and chewing gum at the same time.

I'm having trouble finding safer (to me) whilst more profitable investments at the moment. Bitcoin is also something I understand a bit better than most other instruments, while I'm waiting for a formation of a downtrend before investing in equities.

Indeed, I would have trouble finding safer (to me), more profitable investments as well. I can find plenty of safer (to me), less profitable investments though.

Diversity itself is a safety net, regardless of what ol' Sam has to say.

Of course, you are right. Though at the price point I got in I can afford to let my profits run and still have time to get out. Different forms of risk management I suppose. But I doubt I'd put 100% of $10M in Bitcoins, actually considering the question. More like 30%, with 60% in tangible assets. 5% liquid, 5% for a trip around the world

[wachtwoord]

If I'd have 10$M I'd be financially independent and no way I would risk that. So the maximum would be 5%, except if it gains in value (I don't like selling to lock in gains).

There is risk in holding the $10 million. You are putting your full faith in the hands of a few central bankers. That's far too much risk for me, especially in today's world.

I would not hold much in fiat, I do know how inflation works

The vast majority would be in stocks and I'd probably have a small position in prime metals (2% or something).

[Raize]

If I had 10 million I'd invest it like this:
15% in Gold, Silver, & Bitcoin. (Not ETFs, I'd pay spot price and delivery fees)
25% Cash and Cash Equivalents, possibly some Brazilian Reals, New Zealand Dollars, Yen. I'd probably live off the cash portion as well.
20% in TIPS bonds
20% in S&P 500 Index or SPYs.
20% in Agricultural farmland South and/or East of Des Moines, IA, because I live here and have friends I could rent to that could farm it, and within 25 years I suspect it'll be worth something.

[Zomdifros]

But what if we change the question. Suppose it is five years from now and the bitcoins you bought a few years ago are now worth 10 million USD and climbing. Would you then sell 90% of it?

[piramida]

why, would you suddenly need 10 mil in fiat?

[bpd]

Anyone who says they'd put a fraction over 5% of $10M in BTC doesn't have a clue what it means to be worth $10M.

BTC has huge potential upside. But it also is extremely risky. There are uncertainties that are essentially unknowable:

- Is there a serious unsurmountable bug lurking?
- How will governments react, and what will be the effect on the price or the risk of holding BTC?

There is risk of total loss, and when you have $10M cash to invest, no holding that can result in a total loss should ever represent more than 5% of your net worth (in terms of initial investment anyway -- it's easier to let paper gains ride). Someone who has $10M often has made that money from a single event, such as cashing out stock options or selling a business, and their annual income may be far lower, so that replacing lost capital would take a long time, or might not be possible at all. So protecting capital is far more important than chasing huge gains.
 
A purchase of BTC must be not only scaled to your own net worth, but to the current size of Bitcoin itself. Buying even $1M worth of BTC near the current market price is not trivial, and if you do it naively, you will move the market significantly (slippage). And to exit such a large position will also move the market a significant amount in the other direction. So any such large bet on BTC must by necessity be a long-term holding. $1M of BTC today represents about half a percent of the entire money supply. In the future, I expect the DOLLAR liquidity of BTC to improve significantly, so that $1M could move in and out of BTC without affecting the market much. But today's half a percent of the money supply will still be a quarter percent of the money supply, once 20M coins exist. Selling that amount will likely still affect the market significantly, no matter how long you wait.

My recommendation to friends with $10-20m net worths has been to put approximately 1% into BTC. Of course, I recommended that at $8, so if they listened, that would now represent 3% of their net worth. If I was making the same recommendation today, I would again recommend buying 0.5-1%, but on a large drop in price with no real change in fundamentals, accumulate more to get back to at least 1%.

[Chalkbot]

Hmm, well at $10m I would have a hard time caring about accumulating anymore wealth. I don't need that much to do the things I want to do, so continuing to invest time and thought into future money would be a waste for me. Probably not the answer you were hoping for... sorry.

[bpd]

Again, you cannot recommend anything to anyone on a general level. You MUST account for their age. Any financial planner would tell you that. putting 5% on BTC when you're 50-60 might be ok, but if you're 20-30 then it might not be such a good idea and you might want to invest more on it. You can afford to be more aggressive when you're younger. If your client would have listened to me, putting %20 when he/she is 20 he/she would have doubled his/her money by now... again, it could have gone the other way but most people in the BTC community knows that the more BTC gets implemented, the higher it'll go, so the risk was not as high as the reward.
Again, the point of this is that you cannot recommend the same to two different people. Age is a determining factor and personal economy is too, in this case, we know the net worth of the individual is 10,000,000 so we know that variable already.

With a $10M nest egg, it's not as much age that's relevant as income level relative to assets. Someone with $10M net worth and $2M stable income can probably stand to place more than 5% in BTC. Someone with $10M net worth and $150k stable income should not.

And you are neglecting the fact that BTC is a highly asymmetric bet. It is likely to be either ridiculously successful or go to zero. A little goes a long way.