What if it just doesn't go down again?

[crazy_rabbit]

Baring some horrific hack or some other destruction of the core idea behind Bitcoin- What happens if it just never goes down again? What if this is the cheapest it will ever be? Or at least the cheapest it will be for years to come.

What if Bitcoin is Apple in the late 1990's when Steve Jobs was just about to hit his stride? The wider and deeper the market, the more stable it will be come and as publicity follows publicity follows new market-cap highs, perhaps we are entering a positive feedback cycle, where the more you bitcoin the more you bitcoin.

This growth has been a lot slower and deeper then the last time we hit $32. Maybe this growth will be here to stay?

Not only that- bitcoin essentially is hitting a point where it NEEDS to continuously grow to stay. It is in some weird metaphoric sense, a publicly traded company- where each bitcoin is your 'share' in the idea.

At this point to accomplish our goals, or at least to accomplish the goals of many of the new Fiat dollars that are pouring into the system presently, is to become a legitimate international currency. All that new money will bail the second it doesn't think this won't grow to the moon. Hence it needs to grow relentlessly- maybe not explosively, but relentlessly.

And maybe, baring something terrible- it won't ever really go down again. Perhaps?

[BIGMERVE]

We'd all be some rich motherf***ers.

[cedivad]

We'd all be some rich motherf***ers.

And that usually never happens.

[Luno]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will find a natural price range within this halving, where some of the long term investors will dump some of their Bitcoins.

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

So from a pure scalability point of view, The inflow in Dollar has to increace exponentially and every next generation of investors has to invest an amount the same magnitude larger as the previous price increase.

So two conditions has to be met for the price to increase forever. Each of the two conditions mentioned, has a natural breaking point, so you will see a Bitcoin crash in your life time, don't worry!

[BitcoinRate.com]

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

How is that? Could you elaborate?

[darkmule]

[The-Real-Link]

Well I imagine we'd dip again at some point, I'd still like to believe we're in the Stealth to Awareness phases.  Not quite Pubic or that huge spike just yet.

But man, if that curve was even halfway realistic, our little $20+ bump we're seeing could be dwarfed by the climb to come.  Which goes back to that earlier comment of being rich.

It'd be nice, that's for sure!  But the world needs to work with it and pick it up.

[Otoh]

What if it just doesn't go down again?

that's what she said

[Vladimir]

We'd all be some rich motherf***ers.

That will be only those who do not dump all their bitcoins once it hit 100$ and wait to dump 5% of their bitcoins once it hits 10 000$. Just an example.

Bitcoins are moving from weak hands to strong hands and will continue to move in that direction for quite some time.

[notig]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will find a natural price range within this halving, where some of the long term investors will dump some of their Bitcoins.

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

So from a pure scalability point of view, The inflow in Dollar has to increace exponentially and every next generation of investors has to invest an amount the same magnitude larger as the previous price increase.

So two conditions has to be met for the price to increase forever. Each of the two conditions mentioned, has a natural breaking point, so you will see a Bitcoin crash in your life time, don't worry!

There is a constant growing flow of money into bitcoin. the only question is........ when these holders of larger sums of bitcoins sell them.. is their money going to come back in or are they out for good? I bet a major portion will just get fed back into the whole system.

[Vladimir]

notig, good point.

Ask yourself, folks, whether the price is moving because 1000 of students decided to make money on daytrading Bitcoin and moved in or because CEO and CFO of wordpress and their ilk have decided to load up on bitcoin and hold it for next 20-30 years in "my wife will not get it" fund.

[xxjs]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin.
...

There has to be USD <-> BTC trades to discover the price, but inflow of money is not necessary. Only changes of the value scales of the bitcoin users.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

notig, good point.

Ask yourself, folks, whether the price is moving because 1000 of students decided to make money on daytrading Bitcoin and moved in or because CEO and CFO of wordpress and their ilk have decided to load up on bitcoin and hold it for next 20-30 years in "my wife will not get it" fund.

My guess: both at the moment.  I just read a comment on an exchange from a guy who didn't know you could mine coins...  That stuff makes me nervous, though I am still bullish mid- to long-term.  On the other hand, I think bitcoin has survived long enough already for 'serious money' to start taking notice and start moving in.

[XxionxX]

"my wife will not get it" fund.

Isn't that why we are all really here? 

But seriously, I highly doubt this upward march will continue without some kind of correction. The price marched up $4usd this week!

But what do I know, I'm just holding my bitcoins and spending some when I find something I want(replacing the balance with my fiat dollars of course). I just like to watch the price @_@

[johnyj]

This chart desribed a price bubble caused by central bank's money supply intervention, in BTC's case, since itself is a currency, all the traditional wisdom of investment might not fit

[oakpacific]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will find a natural price range within this halving, where some of the long term investors will dump some of their Bitcoins.

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

So from a pure scalability point of view, The inflow in Dollar has to increace exponentially and every next generation of investors has to invest an amount the same magnitude larger as the previous price increase.

So two conditions has to be met for the price to increase forever. Each of the two conditions mentioned, has a natural breaking point, so you will see a Bitcoin crash in your life time, don't worry!

Stops going down != keeps going up

[Luno]

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

How is that? Could you elaborate?

If you put in $1000 in bitcoin 16 months ago, you would have 500 Bitcoins worth $10.000 now. If you invest $1000 today , you will have 40 Bitcoins.

To make as much money as he did, price has to rise to $200 for a Bitcoin, so the money inflow has to be exponential this year also, if you are gonna make as much money as the first investor.
Thats less likely, so you are running a greater risk than the first investor. If you invest $10.000 today, so you are on par with the first investor, your chance is a lot better for a doubling in price, so you get out with $20.000.

Both of you are getting out with $20.000, you paid $10.000 for them, he paid $1000.

So small investors have less chance of a jackpot now, than they did a year ago. Simmilar, the guy willing to pay $10.000 today, to get into Bitcoin is also nesscesary if the first investor want to cash out today.

Bitcoin is attracting bigger but more short term investors.

So the real life business with Bitcoin, trading of goods, has to grow exponentially also, as it might do right now because of a lot of interest in Bitcoin, but it can't continue forever. As soon as the increase in interest is slowing down to a more normal level, the very large and late "professional" only into it for the money, investors will cash out, at that point there might be enough real life business with Bitcoin for it not to crash, but there is no complete market analysis figures of the Bitcoin economy now, everybody are guessing, myself included.

If you buy Bitcoin to use and dont care much about speculation in price, go ahead buy 4 Bitcoins for $100, but don't expect them to be worth $1000 next year, the chance of that to happen is less for every year in any kind of market.

So is Bitcoin a good long term investment? I can't really tell. Will it increase forever? NO, you bet on it.
 

[debianlinux]

Rule #1: Markets go up AND down.

[arepo]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will find a natural price range within this halving, where some of the long term investors will dump some of their Bitcoins.

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

So from a pure scalability point of view, The inflow in Dollar has to increace exponentially and every next generation of investors has to invest an amount the same magnitude larger as the previous price increase.

So two conditions has to be met for the price to increase forever. Each of the two conditions mentioned, has a natural breaking point, so you will see a Bitcoin crash in your life time, don't worry!

funny... this sounds exactly like a ponzi scheme if you believe that this is going to happen you should put a sign on your head: "BAGHOLDER"

it's funny not because BITCOIN IS A PONZI LAWL

but rather because markets don't allow such things to happen. the 'weak hands to strong hands' point is a very prescient one. long squeezes will occur regularly and force some people 'out of the game' so that fewer and fewer profit in the end. this will have the effect of moving the price around a (probably steadily increasing) price point in a very complex way. good luck predicting that stochastic-ass behavior.

[Luno]

For the price to continue to go up, there has to be a continueing inflow of money into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will find a natural price range within this halving, where some of the long term investors will dump some of their Bitcoins.

As prices get higher, small investors only able to buy a few Bitcoins, Don't have anyway of making money off 1-2 Dollar swings in price, so new investors has to be of a more serious size, investing a few thousands first time they get into Bitcoin.

So from a pure scalability point of view, The inflow in Dollar has to increace exponentially and every next generation of investors has to invest an amount the same magnitude larger as the previous price increase.

So two conditions has to be met for the price to increase forever. Each of the two conditions mentioned, has a natural breaking point, so you will see a Bitcoin crash in your life time, don't worry!

funny... this sounds exactly like a ponzi scheme if you believe that this is going to happen you should put a sign on your head: "BAGHOLDER"

it's funny not because BITCOIN IS A PONZI LAWL

but rather because markets don't allow such things to happen. the 'weak hands to strong hands' point is a very prescient one. long squeezes will occur regularly and force some people 'out of the game' so that fewer and fewer profit in the end. this will have the effect of moving the price around a (probably steadily increasing) price point in a very complex way. good luck predicting that stochastic-ass behavior.

Sure, everything is a Ponzi as soon you become a slave to your own greed. If people just traded assets because they needed them for consumption, the world would never have seen any kind of bubbles.

So we like capatalism and want to get rich, but we blame the system and not our own falwed logic, about money for nothing, when things go wrong.

Humankind is really doomed. But yes, If you are investing. you belive that others are going to loose their money so you make a profit. We are exactly as bad as the banks! Actually the whole world of economics is a ponzi scheme, didn't you know?