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Author Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now  (Read 15721 times)
stckpkr7000
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April 10, 2016, 08:09:18 PM
 #141

I respect your opinion, however my past experience trading equities tells me otherwise.  I can't tell you how many times known events caused stock appreciation before and after the event.  These were stocks with 50 billion+ market caps with large floats.  Time will be the judge, but I highly suspect the obvious can and will play out.  I love thinking in a contrarian manner, but sometimes the obvious plays out as one would expect.
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JayJuanGee
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April 10, 2016, 10:28:02 PM
 #142

Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

 Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money.  I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012.  I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever.  I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. 

When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos.

I like using price fluctuations to try to increase my trading bitcoin stash (which is small, but still fun to play with). But you're welcome to do as you see fit.

You'll never accurately predict where the price is going.  Keep trying and keep getting cucked, though.

If you were smart like me you'd remove that stupid picture under your name, that stupid "world class retard" under your name and realize the smartest thing to do is fucking hold your coins and never sell.


Actually, when trading bitcoin, there are trading strategies in which a person does not need to attempt to predict short term prices.  Of course, it is good to have an overall long-term vision regarding whether the price is ultimately going up or down. 

In that regard, if you presume that 1)  the prices are going down, then you trade up and down while slowly shedding bitcoins

if you presume 2) prices to be going up, then you trade up and down while slowly accumulating more coins. 

I have made quite a few posts on this topic, with the second presumption, and I have described quite specifically how this accumulation can be done, while engaging in little to no ability to predict short term price directions... except continuing to presume that in the long term BTC prices are going up.









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April 10, 2016, 10:39:23 PM
 #143

I respect your opinion, however my past experience trading equities tells me otherwise.  I can't tell you how many times known events caused stock appreciation before and after the event.  These were stocks with 50 billion+ market caps with large floats.  Time will be the judge, but I highly suspect the obvious can and will play out.  I love thinking in a contrarian manner, but sometimes the obvious plays out as one would expect.

My thoughts exactly. No matter how much people try to hype an event, it's impact on the price is always unpredictable and the same applies for the halving. Nevertheless, there have been so many positive events that had a negative impact on the price.














 

 

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solitude
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April 12, 2016, 05:00:20 AM
 #144

This thread needs a bump, why not of God-Emperor Trump's rally I attended tonight?

Goddamn I was close to the God-Emperor, 15 feet at most.


Hardly anyone speaks English on this forum.
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April 12, 2016, 06:13:30 AM
 #145

Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial

Whenever I sell coin to myself to preserve profits I do it OTC, in person. That way there are no fees at all and no counterparty risk.

Just kidding. How does selling coin to yourself "keep the price up"? Isn't that crazy talk?

Well, let's see, I create 2 accounts on any of a number of bitcoin exchanges, I put in a sell order at a high price using one account, and then I buy the exact amount of coin at the high price with the other account (No one sane will buy my coins at the high price, so I can even let the sell order sit for a few days). Now do this 10,000 times per day with bots (exchanges have APIs), and you get a price graph that looks similar to the current exchange rates... Was that hard?

Since I'm doing 10k transactions per day with an exchange, they love me and charge lower fees, or even give me kickbacks. Market sites like coinmarketcap report a huge transaction volume, and everybody assumes that lots of commerce is happening, which perhaps leads to more investment in the space?

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April 12, 2016, 06:24:10 AM
 #146

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

People who invest millions of dollars don't like uncertainty. They analyze an opportunity as thoroughly as they can BEFORE investing (due diligence). Right now Wall Street and Silicon Valley investors have pumped billions into bitcoin. I think it's safe to assume that they:

* know more than most of the beaters posting on this forum
* see an opportunity for financial gain
* want a "first mover advantage" in the space

Wall Street types make millions per year in markets by arbitraging, manipulating, shorting, etc. This is what they do. You can be certain that there are many players in the bitcoin space using every single trick that financial types currently use, plus all of the tricks that are currently ILLEGAL in the mainstream financial system.
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April 12, 2016, 07:05:03 AM
 #147

"classicsucks", I'm not going to waste my time quoting your gibberish.

I'm just going to tell you to get out of here.

Leave this forum, go back to reddit or whatever shithole you came from.

Hardly anyone speaks English on this forum.
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April 12, 2016, 07:33:12 AM
 #148

I create 2 accounts on any of a number of bitcoin exchanges, I put in a sell order at a high price using one account, and then I buy the exact amount of coin at the high price with the other account (No one sane will buy my coins at the high price, so I can even let the sell order sit for a few days). Now do this 10,000 times per day with bots (exchanges have APIs), and you get a price graph that looks similar to the current exchange rates...

The problem is that there is no way of specifying that you want to buy your own overpriced coins. The exchange will match your buy order with the cheapest sell order on the exchange.

You say "No one sane will buy my coins at the high price", but the truth is that no one (not even you) is *able* to buy your coins at the high price until they have bought all the cheaper coins on the market.

Was that hard?

No, but it didn't work.

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JayJuanGee
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April 12, 2016, 09:18:03 AM
 #149

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

People who invest millions of dollars don't like uncertainty. They analyze an opportunity as thoroughly as they can BEFORE investing (due diligence). Right now Wall Street and Silicon Valley investors have pumped billions into bitcoin. I think it's safe to assume that they:

* know more than most of the beaters posting on this forum
* see an opportunity for financial gain
* want a "first mover advantage" in the space

Wall Street types make millions per year in markets by arbitraging, manipulating, shorting, etc. This is what they do. You can be certain that there are many players in the bitcoin space using every single trick that financial types currently use, plus all of the tricks that are currently ILLEGAL in the mainstream financial system.


I largely agree with the content of your above post.

In my earlier referenced post, I'm disputing the existence of various bitcoin price manipulation schemes that do not make logical sense, and when some posters describe such price manipulation schemes in narrow ways as if some kind of manipulation practice is prevalent or a major explanation for price movement (such as miners selling to themselves), then that sounds too conspiratorial to me and not a reflection of complex dynamics and a lot of ongoing grassroots effects, as well. 

Yes, I have multiple posts in which i acknowledge some level of bitcoin price manipulation going on, but price manipulation is not the only explanation for a large amount of its recent history (and specifically an explanation of miners selling to themselves is almost completely inadequate and ludicrous sounding, even though there is likely some amount of it going on). 

Currently, there does also exist quite a bit of adoption of bitcoin and networking pressures that are putting upward price pressures on bitcoin.... which are likely to continue to have an exacerbated and explosive effect on bitcoin prices in coming months.

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April 12, 2016, 05:44:31 PM
 #150


You say "No one sane will buy my coins at the high price", but the truth is that no one (not even you) is *able* to buy your coins at the high price until they have bought all the cheaper coins on the market.


On many exchanges you set your buy price. Simply set your buy price a few satoshi over your ask.
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April 12, 2016, 07:52:57 PM
 #151

I see Lambchop is back shilling for the tribe.

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April 12, 2016, 09:10:03 PM
 #152

The question as to whether the earth ends in deflationary collapse or hyperinflation has been answered


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April 14, 2016, 11:41:04 PM
 #153

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

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April 14, 2016, 11:55:09 PM
 #154

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.
Well obviously it is going to collapse, there is no way Bitcoin can be more valuable than pieces of paper [/s]

I don't know if we are ever going to have a legit page until it is way closer to the halving. I expect it to become a bigger priority at that point, not much point in burning ourselves out now.














 

 

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April 15, 2016, 07:03:12 PM
 #155

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

This isn't a legit halving thread yet.

I would like to believe that the halving isn't already priced in but am yet to see any convincing argument for it.

I have asked several times to see your argument, but it seems you have nothing.

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April 15, 2016, 07:08:34 PM
 #156

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already?  Huh Huh
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April 16, 2016, 01:00:06 AM
 #157

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.
Well obviously it is going to collapse, there is no way Bitcoin can be more valuable than pieces of paper [/s]

I don't know if we are ever going to have a legit page until it is way closer to the halving. I expect it to become a bigger priority at that point, not much point in burning ourselves out now.

Hmmm. A piece of paper can send money across the globe in minutes? who knew?  Roll Eyes
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April 16, 2016, 02:53:54 AM
 #158

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already?  Huh Huh

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.

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talks_cheep
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April 16, 2016, 04:12:07 AM
 #159

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already?  Huh Huh

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.
It's not that simple. Markets will price in as the anticipated events draw NEAR, in our case 6 months prior to the halving. As currencies go, btc (or xbc) isn't really a currency, has no legitimacy beyond the public ledger, there's no competition with other sovereign currencies, South American or others. Bitcoin inflation is a known quanitity, from your perspective. In other's eyes, bitcoin is deflationary, it just depends on your perspective. It's just stupid to argue that the current bitcoin bears no impact from the traders anticipating the halving. I'm a part-time trader and I've priced in the July halving, so you can't possibly argue that it's not priced in, when I trade, I keep the July halving in mind AT ALL TIMES. If you trade bitcoins and are not considering the July halving, you must be a moron.

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April 16, 2016, 04:53:20 AM
 #160

insert garbage spam here

^Click this guy's post history.  Every single post is "blah blah bitcoin will crash to 0 any second" for like a year straight while it goes from $200 to $500 instead.  Not sure how he isn't banned being the most obvious banking shill spam account on the forum.  The banking shill idiots obviously didn't think people can look up their posts to spot them with ease.

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