Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

[keystroke]

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

[lyth0s]

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

Can you explain? The total supply has increased since then and if a new ATH in price/coin is reached then both parts of the equation to determine marketcap will have increased thereby creating a new ATH in market cap as well.

Marketcap = total bitcoins (has gone up) * Price/coin (if goes above old ATH) = new ATH marketcap.

[lyth0s]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand.  

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.

It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying

You're the type of fucking retard

Many of us here are educated and your ad hominem attacks aren't impressing anyone. There is no incentive for me to "show my wealth", only badness can come from that.

I have an above average income and have been accumulating for 4 years. I have enough to keep me comfortable for now.

[lyth0s]

R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after? This is a speculation sub-forum and I'd like to hear your opinion.

I won't pass any judgement if your actual $ amount predictions are wrong. But I will give you cred for them if they are correct   I agree that the price will go up as well and the full price cannot be "factored in" before the actual supply/demand changes have affect.

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom

[dooglus]

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial

Whenever I sell coin to myself to preserve profits I do it OTC, in person. That way there are no fees at all and no counterparty risk.

Just kidding. How does selling coin to yourself "keep the price up"? Isn't that crazy talk?

[r0ach]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

[dooglus]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

[Chef Ramsay]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.80

[r0ach]

The best is when you get these people coming up to you saying stuff like "omg Bitcoin can never go to something like $2800.  Who will buy $2800 Bitcoins???"

Then I answer, "Me, the day after I sell at $3000".  Then they squint their eyes and look around confused thinking "huh...this can't be how it works...."

[lyth0s]

Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

[r0ach]

Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

It's like going to a war and you can't answer that question until you get there, it starts, and you see who shows up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAGx-VnCBek

[stckpkr7000]

Roach,

You are dead on brother.  I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span), and I can't even begin to tell you how many times something obvious was "priced in" to a stock price according to my peers.  A stock split, earnings beat, merger, etc.  Nobody can say with complete certainty, but simple supply and demand will cause BTC appreciation over time.  People shouldn't own any kind of speculative investment if they can't grasp supply vs. demand 101.  Equal to increasing demand with decreasing supply will absolutely cause an upward trajectory.  There is zero chance something with the tiny float of BTC has "priced in" an event 3 months from now as this is more Wild West vs. the Wild West of the 1800s.  Some smaller shops are starting to take note and accumulate BTC as well, and this should put a very solid floor under any massive selling attempts.

[stckpkr7000]

Meh OP, you sound like the guind of guy that is emotionally attached to bitcoin's price. It's highly likely that the halving is priced in, just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.

https://i.imgur.com/ih9Ap6Q.png

Your chart shows something that is currently digesting a large move  (Oct/Nov 2015) via sideways trading.  These scenerios break towards the prevailing trend 9:10 times.  Come on guys......  Any of you bears have any REAL experience?

[stckpkr7000]

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

Dude, you need to do some soul searching as you seem to have some anger issues. 

[bargainbin]

Roach,

You are dead on brother.  I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span) < snip >

How dare you stand in the presence of Our Royal Person, pathetic hedge fund manager of inferior merchant class?!
On your knees, knave!
Kneel before the Glory that is We, the King of Siam!

[maokoto]

I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

[r0ach]

I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

If you could please short with your entire life savings, we would all appreciate it.

[Dilla]

I'm with you rOach. I'm glad somebody else gets it. Don't waste your time on the shills and trolls, they are here occupying the board for a reason; to instill fear and doubt into possible future buyers who look up information about bitcoin on the internet. They spread misinformation and use the exact tactics that someone who would want to take down an entity like bitcoin would do.  They will be here until bitcoin hits it "mainstream", and yet, they will probably still be here then, too.

[solitude]

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell

Why even sell at all?  Unless you absolutely NEED the money, there's no point in selling.

This is why the price hasn't gone up much since Bitcoin became semi-mainstream in 2014.  Tons of cucks and retards are only too happy to sell for a meager profit.  They're also dumb enough to panic sell when some faggot like Mike Hearn spreads FUD.  Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them.  Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes.  They're all dishonest FUD spreaders.  I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists"

[bargainbin]

...  Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them.  Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes.  They're all dishonest FUD spreaders.  I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists"

Oy gavalt! The goyim are restless