Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

[r0ach]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.  

If you're mining, you likely already own coins, and increasing hash power just drives the price up of the ones you already have as well.  Trust me, I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins.  Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.  If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.

Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off.  If the miners do begin to mine at a loss ,they will then also go buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average because we've already determined they aren't turning the miners off.  It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving.  Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway.  There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price of around a 420 floor.  

No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand.  Mining is a form of demand.  Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion.  Around 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the hard part, the putting money up front to capitalize the accumulation period, is already done.  Now the people who have accumulated just wait for inflation to drop, like it's about to do, then send the market higher.  The market will move through both predictable laws of economics and whale engineering at the same time.

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[The Sceptical Chymist]

Ok thank you Roach for that.  I'm not sure I agree with you 100% about mining being a form of demand and I don't think the halving is going to change the supply-demand curve at all.  That's the part I have a problem with.

[Chef Ramsay]

Roach has it spot on, the pre-halving will drive the price up 50% at least and then the aftermath could/might be epic into 4 figures. And, that all depends upon where the worldwide financial system is at that point which could mean 5 digit territory.

[r0ach]

I will explain it more simply.

Ethereum speculators and Bitcoin shorters:



Bitcoin longs:

Is that Andreas Antonopolous?

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Roach has it spot on, the pre-halving will drive the price up 50% at least and then the aftermath could/might be epic into 4 figures. And, that all depends upon where the worldwide financial system is at that point which could mean 5 digit territory.

What pre-halving? When is this you're making this prediction for?

Lol walking dead comics.  We'll see which way the slaughter goes, if there is a slaughter.

[r0ach]

<r0ach> using Descartes style reductionism, you can define Bitcoin in one sentence:  The purpose of mining is to create a permanent two way peg, decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

<r0ach> 99% of these speculators don't even know Bitcoin has a decentralized exchange or how it has effects on price

<r0ach> and you still have PhDs and Thiel award winners who can't comprehend that statement and are creating closed entropy, permissioned ledgers of no value

[JayJuanGee]

<r0ach> using Descartes style reductionism, you can define Bitcoin in one sentence:  The purpose of mining is to create a permanent two way peg, decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

<r0ach> 99% of these speculators don't even know Bitcoin has a decentralized exchange or how it has effects on price

<r0ach> and you still have PhDs and Thiel award winners who can't comprehend that statement and are creating closed entropy, permissioned ledgers of no value

You seem to be onto something.   

[r0ach]

I love it, minutes after I make this post:



Notice how many miles away that fake wall is from the buy/sell convergence point.

[alani123]

Meh OP, you sound like the guind of guy that is emotionally attached to bitcoin's price. It's highly likely that the halving is priced in, just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.

[beastmodeBiscuitGravy]

I love it, minutes after I make this post:



Notice how many miles away that fake wall is from the buy/sell convergence point.

The goyim know- Shut it down.

[r0ach]

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

[Amph]

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

actually it was priced in before the diff increased(immediately after the pump in two 3 days), but we all know that the diff catch the value fast enough

[AliceGored]

It's highly likely that the halving is priced in

It's not possible if you actually know how mining works.

He could be right you know (the r0ach I mean)... the epic disappointment when the halvening cargo cult's wicker aircraft and tattered costumes fail to attract the desired response could do wonders for the number of available (previously mined) bitcoin.

20x gains just from watching a calendar... what could go wrong?

[solitude]

I gotta say I cringe every time I hear some idiot say the halving is "priced in"

They have no understanding of economics or supply and demand.

People were saying that cringey retarded line before the November 2012 halving too, and I must confess, I didn't completely understand at the time why I went from receiving one BTC a week for mining with a shitty Radeon GPU to 1/2 a BTC after the halving.

Look where the price went shortly after the first halving:  $12 to over $266

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The miners have no other choice then to switch off their machines when debt catches up to them. Mining companies will go bankrupt and accumulated coins will be dumped on the markets, when the inexperienced kids finally find out that the "a) buy equipment b) turn on equipment c) ? d) profit" plan wasn't exactly clever.

[KenR]

Finally,someone said it.Still waiting on the day when these newbies will stop getting carried away with all the superficial hype.Miners will certainly not stop mining as they still get the transaction fees for resolving the blocks.Don't know what's so doubtful about it.

[Herbert2020]

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

[Herbert2020]

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in general crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the slide continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

it is always like this, there is a flat line with a nearly stable price (maybe small sparks here and there) and everybody accumulating and then something happens (and it doesn't matter what if you ask me) and then price explodes.

i say this time it is going to be the block size after halving. whether it is segwit, lightning network or classic; as soon as it becomes certain the price will explode.

[Denker]

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in all crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the drop continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

As far as I know there was this big Litecoin Ponzi scheme going on in china.That was the reason why the price rose.And as that Ponzi collapsed right before the halving, the price declined and halving had no further influence.

By the way here is some interesting old thread regarding first halving 2012.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101485.0

[marcus_of_augustus]

The halving maybe partially priced in psychologically but practically it wont affect the market until 3-6 months after halving.

r0ach is correct when he says

this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.

The cost of production floor set by well-capitalised miners' unwillingness to sell at a loss (or even go to buy at the market) is the great secret of bitcoin that prevents it from collapsing totally during downswings.

Halving the block reward effectively doubles the cost of production overnight, thus raising the floor. Without an equivalent decrease in difficulty, it then takes some months to work through the system that bitcoins will 'never' be that cheap to acquire again.

[vvv8]

The halving maybe partially priced in psychologically but practically it wont affect the market until 3-6 months after halving.

r0ach is correct when he says

this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.

The cost of production floor set by well-capitalised miners' unwillingness to sell at a loss (or even go to buy at the market) is the great secret of bitcoin that prevents it from collapsing totally during downswings.

Halving the block reward effectively doubles the cost of production overnight, thus raising the floor. Without an equivalent decrease in difficulty, it then takes some months to work through the system that bitcoins will 'never' be that cheap to acquire again.

QFT

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.  After the halving, the miner profitability drops in half.  If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.

Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off.  It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving.  Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway.  There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price.  

No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand.  Mining is a form of demand.  Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion.

Excellent post r0ach, one of the best & most informative threads I've seen in ages. I actually learnt a few things there. Thank you!

Roach has it spot on, the pre-halving will drive the price up 50% at least and then the aftermath could/might be epic into 4 figures. And, that all depends upon where the worldwide financial system is at that point which could mean 5 digit territory.

Excellent, I love it when a plan comes together

[keystroke]

Difficulty continues to increase, so the miners are ready to keep hashing come the halving.

Let's face it: bitcoin is going up.

[BitcoinHodler]

finally a decent topic in this section that you can call speculation with some reason and not just spam and fud which has been going on here.

[btcbug]

<r0ach> using Descartes style reductionism, you can define Bitcoin in one sentence:  The purpose of mining is to create a permanent two way peg, decentralized exchange, which thus results in a permissionless system.

<r0ach> 99% of these speculators don't even know Bitcoin has a decentralized exchange or how it has effects on price

<r0ach> and you still have PhDs and Thiel award winners who can't comprehend that statement and are creating closed entropy, permissioned ledgers of no value

I've never heard it described this way and never really thought of it to be honest.

You're saying that Bitcoin is based on the exchange of miners trading their energy/work for a digital token (BTC) and the Bitcoin network, being p2p, therefore handles this in a decentralized way. Correct?

If I am off on my interpretation of what you're saying please elaborate further. I think this is a really cool way of viewing things. Typically we only think of the exchange of BTC between wallets or the exchange of fiat and BTC in centralized exchanges.

Thanks for this excellent post!

[Meuh6879]

just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.

Are you sure ... ?

[In4Coins]

This is also how I feel - extremely bullish.

* Tons of weak hands have already sold their positions last two years, wich is proven by relatively small effect of Mike Hearn little shameful move.

Meaning those who hold, hold for good, and those who sold are probably looking for a good oppurtunity to buy again... If Segwit + halvening doesn't do the trick... well they'll probably never buy again....

* Part of the demand for BTC is composed of ppl buying stuff priced in $. They technically don't care much about the price : if the price is 2x, they'll simply buy 50% less, but they'll still buy !

[Chalkbot]

It's entirely possible for halving to be priced in now.

When you buy bitcoin from an exchange (the action that determines bitcoin price) you aren't buying from miners, you're buying from bitcoin holders. Sure, that could INCLUDE miners, but it's not exclusive.

How non-exclusive is it?

According to bitcoinity.org market charts, every day people buy between 1 million and 1.3 million BTC on the exchanges it tracks. If we exclude Houbi and OKcoin (as their numbers are likely inflated) that number falls dramatically to something closer to 200,000 BTC per day. But Houbi and OKcoin are probably doing greater than 0 volume, so let's just say, conservatively, 300,000 BTC are purchased on exchanges every day.

Miners produce (on average) 3600 new BTC per day. If we assume that every miner everywhere sells 100% of his coins immediately, then mined coins represent 1.2% of the supply. If they hold any amount of those coins, than that number is even less.

As we all know, price fluctuations are a result of the ebbs and flows in the bitcoin supply versus demand. So the argument that the reward halving is going to reduce the supply and thus increase the price of bitcoin is indeed valid, but let's not get carried away with 50->100% price increase projections. Remember that people holding coins are not going to have their coins halved, and they represent 98.8% of the daily supply.

So what will happen to the supply (strictly as a result of mining reward halving)?

Well, we're at ~300,000 now, which includes a 3600 mining reward. If we assume once again that all miners everywhere sell 100% of their coins, the biggest impact we could see is a drop of 1800 BTC on the supply side, bringing us down to ~298,200 (or -0.6%).

If everything else stays the same, this would result in a very modest price incline. The deficit is cumulative every day, so in theory the price would have to inch upward to make up for this new 0.6% discrepancy in supply and demand until a new equilibrium is found, but that would not be discernible from normal price movement in all likelihood.

The catch here is that everything else is NOT likely to stay the same. As you can see, there are people that believe that the bitcoin supply will be halved, or that the price will increase 100% immediately after the halving. These beliefs create demand. Demand also rises the price. So while almost nothing is happening on the supply side, we MAY see more significant movements on the demand side.

So why might the halving be already priced in then?

Well, the halving is an event that represents a 0.6% (max.) reduction in the bitcoin supply, something that would warrant a very modest price rise. Meanwhile people have been talking about it and anticipating it for over a year. This means that over that course of time, demand has risen as a result of speculation. Remember that price is set as a function of supply versus demand. Supply going down has the same effect as demand going up in regards to the price. Therefore it can be assumed that any price change that would have happened as a result of the supply side shrinking would have been assumed the moment it could be anticipated on the demand side, which is always immediately with bitcoin.

This doesn't mean that the price WON'T rise immediately before or after the halving. As we saw recently with litecoin, misinformation and hype are powerful (albeit temporary) forces on supply and demand. This is always a possibility, but this would not be a result of the actual halving, only people's perceptions on what a halving will do to the market. After the hype and misinformation phase subsided, the actual supply and demand found it's equilibrium once again roughly 12-14% higher than before the halving (priced in BTC).

[inca]

Nice post. Anyone with any time in the markets knows the market rarely prices things 'in' as efficiently as economists would have us believe.

One small point. The halving reduces coin emission by 50% and reduces the cost of maintaining the network (block subsidy to miners) by half costed in bitcoin.

It isn't quite as simple as you suggest that miners will starve the market to reduce supply and drive up bitcoin unit costs. Over the longer term reduced supply makes a huge difference (favouring a rise in price, demand staying equal).

But markets and prices are set by not just (increasingly insignificant) mining emission, but by the float of bitcoin's on exchanges and overall supply:demand. I hope bitcoin bubbles up again soon (in spite of significant development concerns), but the price could easily crash if speculators decide to sell instead over the shorter term.

Here's hoping for a summer mania.

[r0ach]

So while almost nothing is happening on the supply side, we MAY see more significant movements on the demand side.

First off, you do not understand that Bitcoin has it's own decentralized exchange called mining.  Mining is demand.  There is no "may" about it.  Demand in comparison to supply hugely increases on the demand side and the centralized exchanges are forced to follow

Secondly, most Bitcoins are horded like the movie Leprechaun.  The entire supply of Bitcoin isn't just sitting on the exchange sell side wall.  The float is highly affected by daily mined supply, it's not a small factor.  In the following picture, there's only 16,000 coins until the price is $800 on Finex.  If you just started randomly buying off that wall with the goal of reaching $800, most of them would probably get pulled on the way and you'd only need to buy something like 1/4th of them (at least post halving).  Then all secondary, non-leading exchanges just pull their walls and price goes up without a fight even occurring.

You'll also have people who are just completely stupid and try to short at $450 pumping it to the moon through margin calls.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

Thanks for this r0ach. Finally a well reasoned thread on the halving.

[Chalkbot]

First off, you do not understand that Bitcoin has it's own decentralized exchange called mining.  Mining is demand.  There is no "may" about it.  Demand in comparison to supply hugely increases on the demand side and the centralized exchanges are forced to follow

I'm obviously not going to be able to persuade you from your viewpoint, and I'm okay with that.

I'll just add that I do understand the dynamics of mining. I was a miner for over 3 years (4 hardware generations). I shut it down and liquidated the equipment the moment that it became evident that we were approaching a point in time where costs would equal or exceed income, despite your claims in OP that no miner would ever do that.

[WhatTheGox]

Very nice post OP, as i see it the miners are just as heavily invested if not much more so than the hodlers.  The only thing that can keep the price down is some other random variable and things like govs and banking seem to be playing ball for the most part.

[classicsucks]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy. You're forgetting that miners can and will SELL THEIR HARDWARE. We all know that mining becomes half as profitable overnight when the reward splits. Then likely the price of mining hardware will drop. If the price of mining hardware drops, couldn't the price of coin drop also, despite the decrease in supply? Do we have a good handle on demand? And what percentage of cash for coin exchange is just miners SELLING TO THEMSELVES to keep the price up?

When I look at exchange traffic and charts, it looks like automated trading to me.

[WhatTheGox]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy. You're forgetting that miners can and will SELL THEIR HARDWARE. We all know that mining becomes half as profitable overnight when the reward splits. Then likely the price of mining hardware will drop. If the price of mining hardware drops, couldn't the price of coin drop also, despite the decrease in supply? Do we have a good handle on demand? And what percentage of cash for coin exchange is just miners SELLING TO THEMSELVES to keep the price up?

When I look at exchange traffic and charts, it looks like automated trading to me.

How are the miners going to get a good price on equipment if the market is flooded with miners?  they might aswell just keep mining at a loss vs having to sell equipment at a loss? both outcomes seem the same but if they sell they have to do more work.

[Chalkbot]

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy.

So refreshing to see a newbie who is thinking with his own brain. You're already miles ahead of the rest of this thread man. Keep it up.

[r0ach]

I'm obviously not going to be able to persuade you from your viewpoint, and I'm okay with that.

You would need to read the entire thread for why I claim the altcoin IOTA is a permissioned ledger extortion scheme (as well as PoS coins) to really understand what constitutes a decentralized currency and what the purpose of mining actually is.

IOTA - Permissioned ledger Russian extortion scheme

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1414866.0

Also, who else called the Bitcoin rise almost perfectly? (went all in a couple days before at $230)

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Who else called the Bitcoin dump from $475 almost perfectly in terms of support levels and where it would go? (with the exception of it went in a faster timeline due to Mike Hearn R3 propaganda).  The market then reversed the Mike Hearn propaganda and went back to it's real support level of 410.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[Chalkbot]

Also, who else called the Bitcoin rise almost perfectly? (went all in a couple days before at $230)

Heh. If we're judging our credibility on trade history, my last 2 trades were buy @ 230.21 and sell at 499.15. Do I win? No, because that could be luck as much as anything else.

[Master_dandosha]

interesting guides for halving but i have a question in mind regardless to miners what about the traders who buy bitcoin at the current prices they will sell even at 500 $ already profit earned from the current prices.

[r0ach]

People tend to sell when they're in fear of losing money.  If you buy and sell during the rise and eventually reach a point of what you consider stable, what is there to sell for?  Mortgage backed securities?  Top of the market stocks? 

[IOTUSA]

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in all crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the drop continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

You can't compare the halving function in Litecoin to Bitcoin. In Litecoin, people just took their ASIC and mined some random altcoins instead. The amount of hardware in the bitcoin network is 100x or more of the Litecoin network, and platform value is 15x. No valuable comparison can be made.

[r0ach]

it is always like this, there is a flat line with a nearly stable price (maybe small sparks here and there) and everybody accumulating and then something happens (and it doesn't matter what if you ask me) and then price explodes.

i say this time it is going to be the block size after halving. whether it is segwit, lightning network or classic; as soon as it becomes certain the price will explode.

Core has already conceded on a block size hard fork increase in 2017.  So segwit + 2mb fork = 3.2mb.  Then schnorr multisig is supposed to reduce transaction overhead substantially on top of that.  It's interesting that Trump wants to ban money transfers to Mexico, which would cause a 600%+ increase in Bitcoin market cap if they switched to Bitcoin to bypass that (likely higher since it's fully capitalized cap), while Bitcoin throughput might also be having a similar large increase at the same time.  Bring on the Mexicans.

[JayJuanGee]

it is the same story all over again.
if i wasn't so lazy i would have searched the forum and listed all the topics from the last halving and people saying halving has priced in and price is not gonna rise. now we all know how that ended by that time.

Yes, it rose substantially before the halving and then was fairly flat for a couple months after the halving until the Cyprus bubble began.

I think Litecoin's halving is more relevant since it was just last year. In that case, there was a bubble caused by all the halving hype (plus the steep increase in general crypto prices). The bubble popped just before the halving and the slide continued past the halving. It stopped falling and has been flat ever since.

I believe that Bitcoin will behave similarly except that any halving hype bubble will be limited by the block size drama and the "death spiral" hysteria.

it is always like this, there is a flat line with a nearly stable price (maybe small sparks here and there) and everybody accumulating and then something happens (and it doesn't matter what if you ask me) and then price explodes.

i say this time it is going to be the block size after halving. whether it is segwit, lightning network or classic; as soon as it becomes certain the price will explode.

Actually, this is a real decent point that seems to relate to momentum, and what causes the momentum is not so important as the fact that momentum is created.

Accordingly, the flat price performance periods seem to serve as back and forth and uncertainties about which direction is the price going to go.  Attempts at spreading FUCD, and also attempts to hype, too.  Yet during the more or less flat periods, there is an inability to push prices either above a certain price point or below another price point. 

Likely in the past 3 months or so, we've had prices largely between $360 and $460... and some unsuccessful attempting to push beyond those price points.  Further, during this past three month period, there was a certain amount of the bitcoin community buying into various disinformation regarding technical problems with bitcoin blocksize limits and mixing up the topic of "technical problems" with overly exaggerated concerns about governance issues and seemingly purposeful creation of a variety of loudly vocalized discontent. 

Yet, as time passes and maybe as some of the quasi-related technical implementations (such as segwit) roll out (and the sky doesn't fall), momentum is going to pick up in the upward price direction and a large number of people following bitcoin and also newbies to bitcoin are going to jump on the bitcoin train for the upward momentum that will likely be difficult to hold back (at least for a certain period) that may well take us to the $3,000 to $5,000 price territory.. this may not specifically be halvening that causes it, but a variety of factors coming together (which no doubt will include some of the dynamics of supply and demand - which involves materially that half of the amount of coins are being mined on a daily basis).

[JayJuanGee]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy. You're forgetting that miners can and will SELL THEIR HARDWARE. We all know that mining becomes half as profitable overnight when the reward splits. Then likely the price of mining hardware will drop. If the price of mining hardware drops, couldn't the price of coin drop also, despite the decrease in supply? Do we have a good handle on demand? And what percentage of cash for coin exchange is just miners SELLING TO THEMSELVES to keep the price up?

When I look at exchange traffic and charts, it looks like automated trading to me.

I've bolded your last two sentences, above.

You are likely engaged in a bit of fiction thinking if you believe that miners buying/selling to themselves would have any meaningful impact on price or that it is any kind of widespread factor that affects price in any significant way.  Further, in recent years, most legitimate exchanges (that affect prices) have various kinds of fees that would cause disincentives to trade with self.  The extent to which some of the Chinese exchanges have no fees also cause a dramatic increase in volume, and they tend to not be much if anything of price leaders in recent years (and yes those exchanges are likely heavily employing bots that trade on very tiny spreads).

Employing bots on fee bearing exchanges does not delegitimize the trades, and the exchanges that maintain fees tend to be the most likely to be the price leaders... and even when exchanges allow for a large amount of leverage trading, those kinds of practices can take away (or at least discount) their ability to be price leaders.  Yet, in the end, the price is driven by the combination of the actions on the exchanges, which supply of "actual" coins will factor into how much the price changes in one direction or another.

[primer-]

This guy, roach, is an idiot. Just look at his post history.
I guess he sold his wife for bitcoin, expecting to profit + buy her back after the halving... 

[marcus_of_augustus]

Brilliant post r0ach, it has certainly flushed out the trolls and haters (at least we can find them all in one place now.)

What he is describing is the demand floor that mining represents for a current and on-going demand of 3600 bitcoins per day at cost price.

As market price decreases below cost price that 3600 bitcoin per day number increases, and exponentially not linearly.

100 days after halving (~3.5 months) there will be a shortfall of 180,000 coins, at the current cost.

200 days after halving (~7 months) there will be a shortfall of 360,000 coins ... i.e. the total 'float' presently in all the exchanges.

[dooglus]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

I put it to you that this has already happened.

[marcus_of_augustus]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

Nobody knows how much bitcoins will cost to produce in January next year.

[r0ach]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

I put it to you that this has already happened.

Because small traders are agile traders that have advantages in markets.  If someone is a billionaire, they're not going to go all in on Bitcoin because...they aren't going to go all in on anything no matter how good it sounds.  You have some rare exceptions like Soros, but he's an insider trading financial terrorist benefiting from government connections and should be in jail.

[smooth]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now

How do you know he's not?

Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

The answer would be there is not enough 'smart' money playing in this market, relative to the amount of 'dumb' money that incorrectly doubts r0ach's theory.

I don't really agree with this, but the argument can be made.

[r0ach]

Right now we seem to be in the final stages of accumulation before the price moves, as you can see from that picture I posted earlier.  Either guys like this will succesfully drop the market to $410 or something and then buy, or within the next 5 days, you will start seeing big chunks taken out of the sell side and it moves up:

The difference in buying at 410 and 420 is pretty irrelevent at this point, so I don't even know why they're doing it.  Maybe they think they can force triangle convergence downward for a bigger discount, who knows.  It seems they already own lots of coins, so this would be an extremely stupid move when post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  Trying to tank the market on purpose right before halving is about the dumbest thing you can do when you're simultaneously invested in it.  Maybe they just really want that $10 discount.

[JayJuanGee]

Right now we seem to be in the final stages of accumulation before the price moves, as you can see from that picture I posted earlier.  Either guys like this will succesfully drop the market to $410 or something and then buy, or within the next 5 days, you will start seeing big chunks taken out of the sell side and it moves up:

The difference in buying at 410 and 420 is pretty irrelevent at this point, so I don't even know why they're doing it.  Maybe they think they can force triangle convergence downward for a bigger discount, who knows.  It seems they already own lots of coins, so this would be an extremely stupid move when post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  Trying to tank the market on purpose right before halving is about the dumbest thing you can do when you're simultaneously invested in it.  Maybe they just really want that $10 discount.

[https://i.imgur.com/3pewHTn.png[/img]

I agree with a lot of what you are saying, rOach; however, when attempting to predict price direction and market behaviors of various mixed motive actors, we cannot assume that everyone who has accumulated a bunch of bitcoins owns those coins for the purpose of profiting off of those bitcoins directly.  

It seems to me that there are some actors (including finance institutions, payment processors and governments) who likely own a significant quantity of bitcoins, but they are invested in bitcoin not being successful and they perceive it to be in their best interest if bitcoin is not successful (and bitcoin's price is suppressed) ... therefore, these kind of persons (entities) may still own some bitcoins and are willing to lose money on their bitcoin investment/holdings in order to gamble that they are going to be able to profit in other ways (so long as bitcoin's price does not go up).

[GonnaGrinditout]

My scenario for bitcoin price on the long term: ↗
My scenario for bitcoin price after the halving: ➘
A lot of recent buyers bought BTC just because they read on forums, crypto-medias that the price is going to rise very fast to the moon the day of the halving, or the day after... When they will realize it's not true, they will sell because they don't believe in the potential of bitcoin, like long term holders, they are just speculators. No increase, no profit, no reason to hold.
In addition, I think a lot of people in the bitcoin community are really frustrated with the problems of scalability, and the central planning by Blockstream: as I understand this part of the community thinks bitcoin is not anymore the cryptocurrency envisioned by his creator Satoshi Nakamoto and that core devs are working for the blockstream company instead of working in the interest of bitcoin users (we don't care if it is true or not, because it's not the topic here). This part of the community which is feeling betrayed could have sold their bitcoins 3 or 6 months ago, (like Mike Hearn did) but guess what: they are also waiting for the halving, in the little hope of a slight price increase and better conditions to sell.

[BellaBitBit]

Interesting explanation specifically about mining.  I don't think anyone knows how this is going to go.  There could be a scenario where a bunch of mainstreamers start hearing about a "profit situation" with the halving of bitcoin and it could jack up the price - this could also not happen.  There are many things that can take place before halving, it is an eternity away.

[r0ach]

There are many things that can take place before halving, it is an eternity away.

Lol, something 90 days from now is an eternity?  

[lyth0s]

R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after? This is a speculation sub-forum and I'd like to hear your opinion.

I won't pass any judgement if your actual $ amount predictions are wrong. But I will give you cred for them if they are correct   I agree that the price will go up as well and the full price cannot be "factored in" before the actual supply/demand changes have affect.

[solitude]

[/quote]

It seems to me that there are some actors (including finance institutions, payment processors and governments) who likely own a significant quantity of bitcoins, but they are invested in bitcoin not being successful and they perceive it to be in their best interest if bitcoin is not successful (and bitcoin's price is suppressed) ... therefore, these kind of persons (entities) may still own some bitcoins and are willing to lose money on their bitcoin investment/holdings in order to gamble that they are going to be able to profit in other ways (so long as bitcoin's price does not go up).
[/quote]

While there is no doubt some rich cunts who have been buying as much bitcoin as they can get their hands on the past couple of years, possibly with the ultimate plan of eventually seeing bitcoins demise, I can assure you they will never get their hands on my coins, regardless of how low (and maybe high) the price of bitcoin goes.

There are a shitload of people just like me who are smart (and stubborn) enough to never ever sell their coins.

All they can do is paint bitcoin in a negative light through the jewish-controlled mass media like they're currently doing with Donald Trump.

[Chef Ramsay]

[Chef Ramsay]

[Chef Ramsay]

[solitude]

Yo Chef, bugger off with these pics of stupid graphs man, they mean nothing, even if your pics were big enough to actually see.

[Chef Ramsay]

[solitude]

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

[lyth0s]

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

'

Cool it bro. He's posting price speculation graphs in a speculation sub-forum. It's rather appropriate.

[Chef Ramsay]

Yo Chef, bugger off with these pics of stupid graphs man, they mean nothing, even if your pics were big enough to actually see.

Soli, just shut your mouth you little punk. You brought this upon yourself for no reason and out of nowhere. You must have gotten a rotten eight-ball and are flyin low forever. Get a life.

[solitude]

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

'

Cool it bro. He's posting price speculation graphs in a speculation sub-forum. It's rather appropriate.

No, his silly graphs belong in the Wall Observer thread.  This thread shouldn't be tainted with bullshit mystical imaginary "this graph im posting right now means the price will be $900 tomorrow" posts.

Technical analysis or whatever u call it is pure cancer.

[solitude]

Yo Chef, bugger off with these pics of stupid graphs man, they mean nothing, even if your pics were big enough to actually see.

Soli, just shut your mouth you little punk. You brought this upon yourself for no reason and out of nowhere. You must have gotten a rotten eight-ball and are flyin low forever. Get a life.

What exactly did I bring upon myself, friend?  Your nonsensical graph spam?  Hey man, it's r0ach's thread you're basically ruining with what is essentially graffiti on an otherwise intelligent thread.  I could care less if you want to spam that shit until the cows come home. 

I am genuinely curious how a fan of some reality tv idiot ends up posting on a bitcoin forum.  Shouldn't you be on a forum in the not-too-bright corner of the internet somewhere?

[Chef Ramsay]

Yo Chef, bugger off with these pics of stupid graphs man, they mean nothing, even if your pics were big enough to actually see.

Soli, just shut your mouth you little punk. You brought this upon yourself for no reason and out of nowhere. You must have gotten a rotten eight-ball and are flyin low forever. Get a life.

What exactly did I bring upon myself, friend?  Your nonsensical graph spam?  Hey man, it's r0ach's thread you're basically ruining with what is essentially graffiti on an otherwise intelligent thread.  I could care less if you want to spam that shit until the cows come home. 

I am genuinely curious how a fan of some reality tv idiot ends up posting on a bitcoin forum.  Shouldn't you be on a forum in the not-too-bright corner of the internet somewhere?

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

'

Cool it bro. He's posting price speculation graphs in a speculation sub-forum. It's rather appropriate.

No, his silly graphs belong in the Wall Observer thread.  This thread shouldn't be tainted with bullshit mystical imaginary "this graph im posting right now means the price will be $900 tomorrow" posts.

Technical analysis or whatever u call it is pure cancer.

Huh? Seems you'd be here for the WO thread affect. which is why I posted here from where I found it considering it seems like the next best thread for it. Roach runs this one so don't come in here almighty about what should be said up in here.

Yo Chef, bugger off with these pics of stupid graphs man, they mean nothing, even if your pics were big enough to actually see.

Soli, just shut your mouth you little punk. You brought this upon yourself for no reason and out of nowhere. You must have gotten a rotten eight-ball and are flyin low forever. Get a life.

What exactly did I bring upon myself, friend?  Your nonsensical graph spam?  Hey man, it's r0ach's thread you're basically ruining with what is essentially graffiti on an otherwise intelligent thread.  I could care less if you want to spam that shit until the cows come home. 

I am genuinely curious how a fan of some reality tv idiot ends up posting on a bitcoin forum.  Shouldn't you be on a forum in the not-too-bright corner of the internet somewhere?

Ok, I get it about my recent posts. And maybe I should have posted them in the WO thread yet I would think this one is "on-the-go" in regards to favorable info on bullish behavior in the market these days. If that is what you think of my posts, I'm sorry. I thought they were somewhat constructive. You can clean up his threads all you want and I'll take that for granted. You just went too nasty too soon on a not-unrelated mindset.

[solitude]

Hey bro, I get it, we both get excited when the price of bitcoin increases by even a dollar.  The graph spam isn't necessary though.

Come here, you big man you, give me a hug.

[solitude]

Paging Dr. r0ach.  Dr. r0ach, please return to your thread and assure all of us bitcoin holders we'll be rich someday if we continue to hold.  Dr. r0ach, pls.

Mr. r0ach, I mean Dr. r0ach, how many c0inz are you holding under your mattress these days?

Your posts seem to suggest you have a bit invested in this funny money internet token scheme.  Care to enlighten us to the amount Dr. r0ach has stuffed under his mattress for a rainy day?



pic-related the bullion I own.  A pittance compared to the amount of bitcoins I have stashed under my mattress.  I have a feeling this r0ach fellow might even own more bitcoins than me.

[Chef Ramsay]

Paging Dr. r0ach.  Dr. r0ach, please return to your thread and assure all of us bitcoin holders we'll be rich someday if we continue to hold.  Dr. r0ach, pls.

Hey bro, I get it, we both get excited when the price of bitcoin increases by even a dollar.  The graph spam isn't necessary though.

Come here, you big man you, give me a hug.

That makes sense but youre right.i never meant to be nasty towards you. I'm sorry if i did or say such a thing.
The Roach is gonna bake your balls on this mount.

[solitude]

Do you have any idea the pleasure of the sound of pure silver clanking against each other?  Looking at a piece of gold that will out-live you by tens of thousands of years if it were to be un-touched by man?



Have you ever held REAL MONEY in your hands?

How many bitcoins do the people reading this thread have stashed under their mattress?  Come on, I'm sure theymos would never give up your ip address even if it was into the triple digits.

[lyth0s]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

OPs theory is based on the assumption that miners are mostly capable and skilled people with large piles of personal wealth. I personally don't agree with that and think that most of bitcoin mining (except those who manufactured mining machines) is done by inexperienced kids in debt. Kids who think that buying equipment, turning it on and operating it with less then 10 commands made them industrialists.

[marcus_of_augustus]

</herpderp>   ## ftfy

[lyth0s]

OPs theory is based on the assumption that miners are mostly capable and skilled people with large piles of personal wealth. I personally don't agree with that and think that most of bitcoin mining (except those who manufactured mining machines) is done by inexperienced kids in debt. Kids who think that buying equipment, turning it on and operating it with less then 10 commands made them industrialists.

Most of the hashrate does indeed come from large companies with good capital funding. I would consider them to be rational financial actors.

[solitude]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand. 

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

[r0ach]

Most of the hashrate does indeed come from large companies with good capital funding. I would consider them to be rational financial actors.

I added to the original post about that fact.  That we already know the current process node miners aren't going to be turned off under really any circumstance, so if they begin to mine at a loss, they will buy coins off the wall at the same time as mining to dollar cost average their daily expense until the price reaches a level where it's no longer possible to do so.

[solitude]

Dr. r0ach returns.  Dr. r0ach, care to inform the approximate # of bitcoins you hold these days?  If you're bashful and shy, at least inform us how many digits you hold?  One, Two, or Three bitcoin digits?  If you're a big boy and hold four digits worth of bitcoin, you can send me a personal message, I won't bite.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Most of the hashrate does indeed come from large companies with good capital funding. I would consider them to be rational financial actors.

Following the bitcoin mining business model is far from being a rational financial action.
At first, it's technologically very simplistic, meaning that having skill and experience can't give you a edge in the field over the competition. Meaning that bitcoin mining has always been unattractive for the skilled and experienced, and attractive for those who found the simplistic nature suitable for their own abilities.
And like I said, those who actually designed and built the equipment are different kind of people and that's why the majority of them stayed away from making money by mining themselves. They are smart enough to know that you can't build a solid business plan on top of mining bitcoin. It's just too unstable and unpredictable, and that makes it a blind gamble, that is a big no-no among educated entrepreneurs.

Regarding their funding, it mostly comes from creditors who have no emotional attachment to bitcoin whatsoever. They won't "wait a little longer, because Satoshi may soon descend from the sky and save bitcoin before destroying all the evil banksters". When the clock hits, then they will not hesitate to just bankrupt those companies, stripping their assets dry and selling them on the market. That's the main thing that makes bitcoin value so fragile to my perspective. The piles of accumulated coins are rising and there are plenty of disgruntled creditors whose patience is wearing out. In my eyes, it's just a time bomb waiting to go off.

[solitude]

OPs theory is based on the assumption that miners are mostly capable and skilled people with large piles of personal wealth. I personally don't agree with that and think that most of bitcoin mining (except those who manufactured mining machines) is done by inexperienced kids in debt. Kids who think that buying equipment, turning it on and operating it with less then 10 commands made them industrialists.

I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.

You can type like you've at least graduated high school, but the words you type are simply retarded.  Do you seriously think that most of the bitcoin mining is done by children?  If the majority of bitcoin mining was done by children, why would they even have to worry about debt?  They're fucking children, they're not even old enough to own a credit card.

"Mervyn_Pumpkinhead", wow, what an original name.  Your name is retarded, what you type is retarded, and I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.

You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet, since I joined the internet in 1996. 

Get the fuck off this forum, you're worse than the third world trash who post here with their gibberish broken english looking for signature spam bucks.

[LMGTFY]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.  

If you're mining, you likely already own coins, and increasing hash power just drives the price up of the ones you already have as well.  Trust me, I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins, I'm an expert on this from firsthand experience.  Since the amount of miners deployed increased a lot with the recent price increase, this means the floor miners will stop selling at raised too.  If the majority of the network is composed of ASICs that are supposed to be technologically viable, or even near their ROI period at all, but the sell rate is not favorable to that, they will simply stop selling, supply withers to nothing, then the price boom occurs.

Miners also tend to mine at a loss in hopes of future returns (being a deflationary system and all) long before turning their miners off.  If the miners do begin to mine at a loss ,they will then also go buy coins off the wall to dollar cost average because we've already determined they aren't turning the miners off.  It is 100% inevitable price increases after halving.  Post halving price is a function of what the market can bear pre-halving.  We've already seen the Mike Hearn R3 propaganda scare dumps where the market didn't drop that much then rebounded anyway.  There's not a problem with the market supporting this ballpark of pre-halving price of around a 410 floor.  

No matter how you look at it, post halving, in one way or another, through multiple dynamics, the supply will decrease propotional to demand.  Mining is a form of demand.  Mining is a decentralized exchange, Coinbase is a centralized exchange.  The price could increase 50%, it could increase 100%, or depending how elastic demand is, it could go much higher through a big shock in supply side distortion.  Around 75% of Bitcoin has already been mined, so the hard part, the putting money up front to capitalize the accumulation period, is already done.  Now the people who have accumulated just wait for inflation to drop, like it's about to do, then send the market higher.  The market will move through both predictable laws of economics and whale engineering at the same time.

OK, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. It's been many years since I mined, and a lot has changed, but I recognise mining-at-a-loss - when I purchased my first <ahem> "rig" (known as a fancy graphics card back then) I knew I could spend the money on BTC instead, and - initially - have far more BTC. I knew that difficulty would push ROI back further and further. Despite that, I mined at a loss in the hope that - one -day! - BTC would be worth more than the few dollars it was then.

So - good analysis, interesting and thought-provoking discussion ensues.

What I don't get is - what does that have to do with the subject of the thread?

The big struggle I have trying to get people to understand that markets take known, future events into account is getting them to understand that traders don't live in a bubble, that they have access to the same data, the same analysis we have (not least because there's an overlap between "traders" and "us"). The premise here seems to be (1) we know that supply will reduce relative to demand, (2) ?, (3) Profit. What's step 2?

[JayJuanGee]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand. 

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

I doubt that it really matters too much regarding how much BTC posters in these speculation threads are holding.  Surely claims seem a bit more realistic when they are working with more than 5 or 10 coins, and surely it helps to make profits a bit greater when working with a larger stash of coins.  Sometimes when the reference is to a stash of less than 1 coin, then it becomes more difficult to take the person seriously (especially if making claims about trading BTC)

Between late 2013 and mid-2014, my goal was to build up a personal holdings of about 30 coins, yet when BTC prices dropped from $1,000 to $600 then to $400 and finally to $200 and below, 30 coins became a lot more attainable, well within my budget, and I ended up exceeding that initial goal. 

Frequently, after I had attained my initial 30 coins, I would begin to talk more in hypotheticals, and not discuss too many specifics regarding my exact quantity of holdings; however, I frequently like to use 100 coins as easy reference point when discussing BTC accumulation and trading strategies and techniques..

Whether I personally hold 100 coins, 100 coins seems like a good round number that could be easy to digest and fairly within grasp of a lot of people who have been at this accumulation and trading of BTC for a while.

On the other hand, it seems that in the coming years, and once BTC prices may likely 10x in the coming years (possibly even this year), it may become more practical to talk about accumulating and/or trading 10 coins, for illustrative purposes.   

[solitude]

Most of the hashrate does indeed come from large companies with good capital funding. I would consider them to be rational financial actors.

Following the bitcoin mining business model is far from being a rational financial action.
At first, it's technologically very simplistic, meaning that having skill and experience can't give you a edge in the field over the competition. Meaning that bitcoin mining has always been unattractive for the skilled and experienced, and attractive for those who found the simplistic nature suitable for their own abilities.
And like I said, those who actually designed and built the equipment are different kind of people and that's why the majority of them stayed away from making money by mining themselves. They are smart enough to know that you can't build a solid business plan on top of mining bitcoin. It's just too unstable and unpredictable, and that makes it a blind gamble, that is a big no-no among educated entrepreneurs.

Regarding their funding, it mostly comes from creditors who have no emotional attachment to bitcoin whatsoever. They won't "wait a little longer, because Satoshi may soon descend from the sky and save bitcoin before destroying all the evil banksters". When the clock hits, then they will not hesitate to just bankrupt those companies, stripping their assets dry and selling them on the market. That's the main thing that makes bitcoin value so fragile to my perspective. The piles of accumulated coins are rising and there are plenty of disgruntled creditors whose patience is wearing out. In my eyes, it's just a time bomb waiting to go off.

It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying to convince die-hard bitcoiners that bitcoin sucks.

You're the type of fucking retard who probably earns a median income, but is obviously mentally retarded.

I hope Satoshi descends from the sky, grabs you by your neck fat, and drops you in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, you retarded fucking faggot.

[solitude]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand. 

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

I doubt that it really matters too much regarding how much BTC posters in these speculation threads are holding.  Surely claims seem a bit more realistic when they are working with more than 5 or 10 coins, and surely it helps to make profits a bit greater when working with a larger stash of coins.  Sometimes when the reference is to a stash of less than 1 coin, then it becomes more difficult to take the person seriously (especially if making claims about trading BTC)

Between late 2013 and mid-2014, my goal was to build up a personal holdings of about 30 coins, yet when BTC prices dropped from $1,000 to $600 then to $400 and finally to $200 and below, 30 coins became a lot more attainable, well within my budget, and I ended up exceeding that initial goal. 

Frequently, after I had attained my initial 30 coins, I would begin to talk more in hypotheticals, and not discuss too many specifics regarding my exact quantity of holdings; however, I frequently like to use 100 coins as easy reference point when discussing BTC accumulation and trading strategies and techniques..

Whether I personally hold 100 coins, 100 coins seems like a good round number that could be easy to digest and fairly within grasp of a lot of people who have been at this accumulation and trading of BTC for a while.

On the other hand, it seems that in the coming years, and once BTC prices may likely 10x in the coming years (possibly even this year), it may become more practical to talk about accumulating and/or trading 10 coins, for illustrative purposes.   

Dude, Juan man, I see you post in the Wall Observer thread all the time and you clearly weren't shy to reply to my post.


I hope you're making big bucks writing for some website, you clearly enjoy writing, and from I've read recently, you make logical coherent points. 

If you're not writing about bitcoin for some website making some cash I suggest you look into it.  It's not for me, but it seems like the thing for you.

[r0ach]

R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after? This is a speculation sub-forum and I'd like to hear your opinion.

I won't pass any judgement if your actual $ amount predictions are wrong. But I will give you cred for them if they are correct   I agree that the price will go up as well and the full price cannot be "factored in" before the actual supply/demand changes have affect.

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

[kehtolo]

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200.  Shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

Nice one r0ach... I agree with every word, esp. the sentence i've highlighted.. Once a rise/rally starts in earnest strap yourselves in and hold on because as you've rightly pointed out, this thing (bitcoin rallies) takes on a life of it's own. Momentum and pressure builds and it starts to rise like crazy.. FOMO and greed and hype all play a part. It's a feeding frenzy...just don't get bitten by the sharks..

Regarding halving. My own thoughts are that we will only see a modest rise before and at first a modest rise after.. for some weeks and then things will start to pick up speed.
Price-wise, to speculate..I'd say up to around $600 pre halving.. then gradually up to 800 in the 6-10 weeks after it.
After that, hopefully we will be gearing up for a proper rally.

If we pass the current ATH - watchout. I wouldn't even like to hazard a guess where it would go then. But some signs that the rally is exhausted are double/triple tops.. high RSI (90+) and when the value increases 100% in a week... you should be thinking of selling under those conditions.
There will be a killing to be made when the first drop happens. It will drop.. and it will drop by lots... selling at or near the top and catching the bottom of the first big drop will be very profitable for those who manage it right.

[bargainbin]

...
"Mervyn_Pumpkinhead", wow, what an original name.  Your name is retarded, what you type is retarded, and I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.

You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet, since I joined the internet in 1996. 

Get the fuck off this forum, you're worse than the third world trash who post here with their gibberish broken english looking for signature spam bucks.

You sound a little upset, solitude. There's no need to be upset.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

[bargainbin]

... Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

In the text below, find the following:
 >Your name is retarded
 >what you type is retarded
 >if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.
 >You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet
 >Get the fuck off this forum
 >you're worse than the third world trash

But it's me... I'm the one who is trolling. Because pointed out that there's no need to be upset

...
"Mervyn_Pumpkinhead", wow, what an original name.  Your name is retarded, what you type is retarded, and I wouldn't be surprised if you happened to impregnate a woman that your children would be retarded.

You basically wrote the most retarded thing I've ever read in the history of the internet, since I joined the internet in 1996.  

Get the fuck off this forum, you're worse than the third world trash who post here with their gibberish broken english looking for signature spam bucks.

You sound a little upset, solitude. There's no need to be upset.

[dooglus]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

I put it to you that this has already happened.

Because small traders are agile traders that have advantages in markets.  If someone is a billionaire, they're not going to go all in on Bitcoin because...they aren't going to go all in on anything no matter how good it sounds.  You have some rare exceptions like Soros, but he's an insider trading financial terrorist benefiting from government connections and should be in jail.

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

[classicsucks]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy. You're forgetting that miners can and will SELL THEIR HARDWARE. We all know that mining becomes half as profitable overnight when the reward splits. Then likely the price of mining hardware will drop. If the price of mining hardware drops, couldn't the price of coin drop also, despite the decrease in supply? Do we have a good handle on demand? And what percentage of cash for coin exchange is just miners SELLING TO THEMSELVES to keep the price up?

When I look at exchange traffic and charts, it looks like automated trading to me.

I've bolded your last two sentences, above.

You are likely engaged in a bit of fiction thinking if you believe that miners buying/selling to themselves would have any meaningful impact on price or that it is any kind of widespread factor that affects price in any significant way.  Further, in recent years, most legitimate exchanges (that affect prices) have various kinds of fees that would cause disincentives to trade with self.  The extent to which some of the Chinese exchanges have no fees also cause a dramatic increase in volume, and they tend to not be much if anything of price leaders in recent years (and yes those exchanges are likely heavily employing bots that trade on very tiny spreads).

Employing bots on fee bearing exchanges does not delegitimize the trades, and the exchanges that maintain fees tend to be the most likely to be the price leaders... and even when exchanges allow for a large amount of leverage trading, those kinds of practices can take away (or at least discount) their ability to be price leaders.  Yet, in the end, the price is driven by the combination of the actions on the exchanges, which supply of "actual" coins will factor into how much the price changes in one direction or another.

I have no proof that people are selling to themselves, but it's LOGICAL that miners would be. Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial, furthermore the exchange could be part of a scheme to keep prices up, and simply refund the fee (or double it). Of course you could also sell to yourself at a LOWER price - I suspect some are doing this as well. These markets aren't regulated, so there is nothing illegal about moving millions of BTC back and forth between sock puppet accounts all day.  That's what this market looks like to me. If you control sufficient volume, it's possible even to move the market one way or the other, then buy low/sell high and profit. I know there are big players in the space who have the ability to move the BTC price, fortunately for this ecosystem, most of them favor the upside...

[classicsucks]

How are the miners going to get a good price on equipment if the market is flooded with miners?  they might aswell just keep mining at a loss vs having to sell equipment at a loss? both outcomes seem the same but if they sell they have to do more work.

I guess when you say "miners" you mean hardware? if one is faced with a financial loss, one chooses the least damaging path. If running a miner and paying electric bills is more expensive than simply bailing out and selling the hardware, you sell the hardware. Selling hardware seems like LESS work than maintaining it, but I guess it's a matter of opinion.

[JayJuanGee]

Most people in the speculation forum don't understand anything about Bitcoin mining.  The first thing you need to understand is, nobody running a current process node miner actually turns them off no matter what the price does.  You're either an ASIC dealer that spent millions on research and design to make it, or some random Joe that paid a big premium for one.  Turning them off makes no sense for anyone since Bitcoin is an asymmetric investment.  Unless you're mining with crazy expensive electricity, your current generation miner will either pay off eventually, or Bitcoin will go to 0.  There's no purpose in turning it off.

While I like your thinking in general, this is a false dichotomy. You're forgetting that miners can and will SELL THEIR HARDWARE. We all know that mining becomes half as profitable overnight when the reward splits. Then likely the price of mining hardware will drop. If the price of mining hardware drops, couldn't the price of coin drop also, despite the decrease in supply? Do we have a good handle on demand? And what percentage of cash for coin exchange is just miners SELLING TO THEMSELVES to keep the price up?

When I look at exchange traffic and charts, it looks like automated trading to me.

I've bolded your last two sentences, above.

You are likely engaged in a bit of fiction thinking if you believe that miners buying/selling to themselves would have any meaningful impact on price or that it is any kind of widespread factor that affects price in any significant way.  Further, in recent years, most legitimate exchanges (that affect prices) have various kinds of fees that would cause disincentives to trade with self.  The extent to which some of the Chinese exchanges have no fees also cause a dramatic increase in volume, and they tend to not be much if anything of price leaders in recent years (and yes those exchanges are likely heavily employing bots that trade on very tiny spreads).

Employing bots on fee bearing exchanges does not delegitimize the trades, and the exchanges that maintain fees tend to be the most likely to be the price leaders... and even when exchanges allow for a large amount of leverage trading, those kinds of practices can take away (or at least discount) their ability to be price leaders.  Yet, in the end, the price is driven by the combination of the actions on the exchanges, which supply of "actual" coins will factor into how much the price changes in one direction or another.

I have no proof that people are selling to themselves, but it's LOGICAL that miners would be. Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial, furthermore the exchange could be part of a scheme to keep prices up, and simply refund the fee (or double it). Of course you could also sell to yourself at a LOWER price - I suspect some are doing this as well. These markets aren't regulated, so there is nothing illegal about moving millions of BTC back and forth between sock puppet accounts all day.  That's what this market looks like to me. If you control sufficient volume, it's possible even to move the market one way or the other, then buy low/sell high and profit. I know there are big players in the space who have the ability to move the BTC price, fortunately for this ecosystem, most of them favor the upside...

Sure, each of us is free to believe what we like based on the evidence of what we see and what we consider to be logical. 

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

I agree that bitcoin remains a relatively small market (with a small market cap); nonetheless, I place quite a bit less weight on your description of influential bitcoin players because I  believe that you are putting too much weight on the manipulation aspect whether you are talking about miners or other big (and likely manipulative) players.  They exist, but so what?  There are also a growing widespread of additional non-manipulating players.

There are quite a few theories out there that attempt to minimize the paradigm changing reality of BTC including ones that attribute a considerable amount of weight to the Gox willy bot in late 2013.. surely these price manipulation practices are factors that in fact affect bitcoin's price; however, even though bitcoin is currently relatively small, it's growth potential is considerable and likely, even if it may take a few years to evolve and to develop a larger grassroots base..

So even if there is a little bit of truth to your theory regarding some miners attempting to manipulate BTC prices, the practice is likely small in the whole scheme of things.. and anecdotal rather than systematic. 

[r0ach]

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

The Koshers that be are definitely accelerating their shilling lately in fear of price increase.

[UngratefulTony]

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

The Koshers that be are definitely accelerating their shilling lately in fear of price increase.

They can shill all they want, the volume lately is decidedly towards the upside. There simply aren't many sellers left, only institutional buyers remain, and, as we know, their supply of fiat is basically limitless.

There's no stopping this halving moon train, so let it be written, so let it be done.

[Chalkbot]

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

[lissandra]

If the price is guaranteed to rise significantly after the halving, why aren't you buying as many coins as you can now so you can make a guaranteed profit when the price rises? Why wouldn't the smart money buy up all the cheap coins now, up to the post-halving price, and therefore pricing in the halving jump in advance?

I put it to you that this has already happened.

Because small traders are agile traders that have advantages in markets.  If someone is a billionaire, they're not going to go all in on Bitcoin because...they aren't going to go all in on anything no matter how good it sounds.  You have some rare exceptions like Soros, but he's an insider trading financial terrorist benefiting from government connections and should be in jail.

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

There is no counter argument lol.

Case closed. If a person needs a long block of wall text to explain the supportive argument or debate, they just dont understand it enough is how I usually go with people.

I deal with people all the time, if a person can explain in a few 3-4 simple sentences, I just move on.

[solitude]

the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories

Don't you mean 6 million stories?  oy vey!  Remember the six trillion, goyim!

[bargainbin]

NLC your trolling/bearishness has gone into over drive lately. Are you or your master(s) concerned about a potential price increase?

The Koshers that be are definitely accelerating their shilling lately in fear of price increase.

They can shill all they want, the volume lately is decidedly towards the upside. There simply aren't many sellers left, only institutional buyers remain, and, as we know, their supply of fiat is basically limitless.

There's no stopping this halving moon train, so let it be written, so let it be done.

Don't let me interrupt.

[keystroke]

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

[lyth0s]

Everyone should keep in mind that come the halving a new ATH in terms of market cap. will be much lower than the previous ATH.

Can you explain? The total supply has increased since then and if a new ATH in price/coin is reached then both parts of the equation to determine marketcap will have increased thereby creating a new ATH in market cap as well.

Marketcap = total bitcoins (has gone up) * Price/coin (if goes above old ATH) = new ATH marketcap.

[lyth0s]

Although the layout of your first photo there is pretty cool, its currently only about $1000 or a bit less.

Wow, mr. hot shot "World Class Cryptonaire" hit the nail on the head.

You're absolutely right, I don't think my bullion is worth much more than a grand.  

Come on hot shot World Class Cryptonaire, show us your wealth.

Although to be honest, with a stupid picture not much more impressive than our reality tv friend Chef Ramsay, and a dumb name "World Class Cryptonaire" underneath it, I'd say you were more of a bullshitting retarded poser than anyone holding any serious wealth.

Although I'm waiting here for you to convince me you were the real deal.

I'm pretty sure you are mentally retarded.

It's like you're the dumbest bankster in the world trying

You're the type of fucking retard

Many of us here are educated and your ad hominem attacks aren't impressing anyone. There is no incentive for me to "show my wealth", only badness can come from that.

I have an above average income and have been accumulating for 4 years. I have enough to keep me comfortable for now.

[lyth0s]

R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after? This is a speculation sub-forum and I'd like to hear your opinion.

I won't pass any judgement if your actual $ amount predictions are wrong. But I will give you cred for them if they are correct   I agree that the price will go up as well and the full price cannot be "factored in" before the actual supply/demand changes have affect.

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go.  

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom

[dooglus]

I am trying to understand why you think that is it impossible that the halving is already priced in.

I am not suggesting that billionaires should "go all in" or that Soros is in any way involved.

I am suggesting that since the halving and corresponding reduced supply are already known, they have already influenced the market.

How do you counter that argument?

dooglus, you're way too intelligent of a guy to be wasting your time trying to understand why this guy believes this thing.

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial

Whenever I sell coin to myself to preserve profits I do it OTC, in person. That way there are no fees at all and no counterparty risk.

Just kidding. How does selling coin to yourself "keep the price up"? Isn't that crazy talk?

[r0ach]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

[dooglus]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

[Chef Ramsay]

I've never encountered this guy before and wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt.

But it does appear that he doesn't have a valid argument. He seems to have ignored my question after attempting to fob me off with logical fallacies re. billionaires and Soros. I guess he's simply talking his book.

I said my point, you just ignored it.

Maybe I missed it. Would you mind repeating it, or linking to the post? Thanks.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1428863.80

[r0ach]

The best is when you get these people coming up to you saying stuff like "omg Bitcoin can never go to something like $2800.  Who will buy $2800 Bitcoins???"

Then I answer, "Me, the day after I sell at $3000".  Then they squint their eyes and look around confused thinking "huh...this can't be how it works...."

[lyth0s]

Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

[r0ach]

Roach did you see my previous post? Thoughts?

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell some in hopes to buy back at a lower price? I have a few bitcoins that I trade with, but I'm terrible at it. I also agree that once we approach last ATH we just have to hold on for a wild FOMO boom Smiley

It's like going to a war and you can't answer that question until you get there, it starts, and you see who shows up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAGx-VnCBek

[stckpkr7000]

Roach,

You are dead on brother.  I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span), and I can't even begin to tell you how many times something obvious was "priced in" to a stock price according to my peers.  A stock split, earnings beat, merger, etc.  Nobody can say with complete certainty, but simple supply and demand will cause BTC appreciation over time.  People shouldn't own any kind of speculative investment if they can't grasp supply vs. demand 101.  Equal to increasing demand with decreasing supply will absolutely cause an upward trajectory.  There is zero chance something with the tiny float of BTC has "priced in" an event 3 months from now as this is more Wild West vs. the Wild West of the 1800s.  Some smaller shops are starting to take note and accumulate BTC as well, and this should put a very solid floor under any massive selling attempts.

[stckpkr7000]

Meh OP, you sound like the guind of guy that is emotionally attached to bitcoin's price. It's highly likely that the halving is priced in, just look at this 6 month chart, longterm support is basically nonexistent.

https://i.imgur.com/ih9Ap6Q.png

Your chart shows something that is currently digesting a large move  (Oct/Nov 2015) via sideways trading.  These scenerios break towards the prevailing trend 9:10 times.  Come on guys......  Any of you bears have any REAL experience?

[stckpkr7000]

Why would you name yourself "Chef Ramsay" ?  Is that faggot chef on reality tv such a hero to you?  You've even included a picture of his dumb fucking face.  What is your deal, man?  Fuck off with these stupid meaningless graphs

Dude, you need to do some soul searching as you seem to have some anger issues. 

[bargainbin]

Roach,

You are dead on brother.  I managed a small hedge fund through the 90s (made over 100,000 trades during that span) < snip >

How dare you stand in the presence of Our Royal Person, pathetic hedge fund manager of inferior merchant class?!
On your knees, knave!
Kneel before the Glory that is We, the King of Siam!

[maokoto]

I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

[r0ach]

I cannot know for sure, but I think it is already priced in. If bitcoin were to double price, that would mean a lot of money coming from outside into Bitcoin. I do not think the "outside world" is gonna to put that money in just because of the halving. In fact, if they were to put it in, they would have already done so, as everyone is expecting the halving to produce a big raise.

In other words, for price to rise there should be an increase in demand, not just shortage in supply, as there are lots of Bitcoins already,

But I can be wrong.

If you could please short with your entire life savings, we would all appreciate it.

[Dilla]

I'm with you rOach. I'm glad somebody else gets it. Don't waste your time on the shills and trolls, they are here occupying the board for a reason; to instill fear and doubt into possible future buyers who look up information about bitcoin on the internet. They spread misinformation and use the exact tactics that someone who would want to take down an entity like bitcoin would do.  They will be here until bitcoin hits it "mainstream", and yet, they will probably still be here then, too.

[solitude]

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell

Why even sell at all?  Unless you absolutely NEED the money, there's no point in selling.

This is why the price hasn't gone up much since Bitcoin became semi-mainstream in 2014.  Tons of cucks and retards are only too happy to sell for a meager profit.  They're also dumb enough to panic sell when some faggot like Mike Hearn spreads FUD.  Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them.  Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes.  They're all dishonest FUD spreaders.  I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists"

[bargainbin]

...  Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them.  Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes.  They're all dishonest FUD spreaders.  I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists"

Oy gavalt! The goyim are restless

[solitude]

Oy gavalt! The goyim are restless

How do you have 1,130 posts in four months?  I've been here four years and I have half your posts.

[solitude]

Enjoying a nice "I'm going to be rich" cigar with a fine bourbon.  3,600 bitcoins a day to only 1,800 a day, even panic-selling nu-male cucks can't keep the price down.



There's bound to be fireworks, let's have a party!  Drinks on me!

"Dead or alive, you're coming with me".  Robocop's on the Talmudvision.

[solitude]

Mining with a shitty $150 Radeon 7850 GPU in 2012 when Bitcoin was only worth $10 each.  I had a hunch these funny money internet tokens would become more valuable in time:



Notice how much longer it took me to earn one bitcoin after the first halving.

These noob miners that aren't "in-the-know" are going to see the bitcoins they receive diminish greatly in July.  But like Dr. r0ach said, it's pointless to turn off your miners, you're basically stuck with them.

I already have enough bitcoins to buy a small island, but I'm thinking of being a greedy son of a bitch and buy more because I know the price is going to fucking skyrocket.

[solitude]

I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins

Actually, I've just demoted Dr. r0ach to Mr. r0ach.

Anyone who invests time or money into an altcoin is a cuck.

I've even seen Mr. r0ach post in the altcoin forum where delusional retards think their shitty shitcoin is going to the moon.

What's the point, Mr. r0ach?  You're not going to dissuade retards from buying into hype, and why would you even bother with altcoins?

ETH is tanking as we speak. I knew this was going to happen from the get-go, but I wasn't posting like a fucking idiot in the ETH threads trying to convince retards they were getting cucked.

Mr. r0ach, don't make me demote you further, and stop trying to predict the future price of bitcoin.  Just acknowledge that you have no fucking idea where it's going and just say it's almost guaranteed to increase.

[Chef Ramsay]

I've rented out like 80% of the hashpower of entire altcoins

Actually, I've just demoted Dr. r0ach to Mr. r0ach.

Anyone who invests time or money into an altcoin is a cuck.

Anyone that is pushing/talking about an altcoin is either a spammer or someone looking for that coin to moon and get them more Bitcoin. Out of all people, I woulda thought that would be at the tip of your mind.

I get your criticism (of alts) as ETH was a pump and fuck but you should know that classic alts like LTC, NPC, PPC etc tend to moon when BTC goes up at minimum. Esp LTC, so why not get some of these to get more BTC as the price goes up?

[solitude]

Lol Chef, come on man, by now you should know that Bitcoin is the only crypto.

Every altcoin is a fart in the wind.

To be honest I don't know why I haven't created an altcoin and pumped and dumped it.  I'm too much of a goy for that.  We'll leave that sort of business for our hook-nosed friends:

[solitude]

Come on Chef.  Let's get this halving party started.  I'll supply the drinks.  You being a fan of Chef Ramsey must mean you can cook right?  So you supply the food.

Let's fuckin' have a fuckin' party.  We're all going to be bloody-fucking rich.  And there's nothing the kikes in the Federal Reserve, the banks, or the government can do about it.



As an addemdum:  Right now there's kind of shitty ways to sell your coins "off-the-grid" so to speak.

I guarantee you in a year or so there will be MUCH more anonymous ways to sell your bitcoins.

Because FUCK the greedy kikes in the IRS.  FUCK paying taxes on your bitcoins.

[Chef Ramsay]

Come on Chef.  Let's get this halving party started.  I'll supply the drinks.  You being a fan of Chef Ramsey must mean you can cook right?  So you supply the food.

Yep, you said it bro. I'm on your side for this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqV7DB8Iwg. What can I cook up for ya?

[solitude]

This is the official Bitcoin-going-t0-the-m00n theme song:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQowneABz9M&feature=youtu.be&t=17



Disregard retarded "prophets" like r0ach, who is a decent and somewhat intelligent goy, but he needs to stop fucking pretending like he knows the future bitcoin price.

[solitude]

Watching The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly now

You mad, nu-male cucks? 

This isn't a movie a nu-cuck would enjoy.  What time is Tyrone due to arrive at your house and fuck your wife, reddit cuck?

[lyth0s]

At what marker or price would you temporarily sell

Why even sell at all?  Unless you absolutely NEED the money, there's no point in selling.

This is why the price hasn't gone up much since Bitcoin became semi-mainstream in 2014.  Tons of cucks and retards are only too happy to sell for a meager profit.  They're also dumb enough to panic sell when some faggot like Mike Hearn spreads FUD.  Of course the jewish media hasn't helped the price, don't even get me started on them.  Even the relatively unknown bitcoin "news sites" are mostly ran by nu-male cucks and kikes.  They're all dishonest FUD spreaders.  I hope Trump becomes president and gasses all the "journalists"

You took my quote out of context. Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

[solitude]

Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

 Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money.  I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012.  I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever.  I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. 

When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos.

[lyth0s]

Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

 Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money.  I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012.  I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever.  I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. 

When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos.

I like using price fluctuations to try to increase my trading bitcoin stash (which is small, but still fun to play with). But you're welcome to do as you see fit.

[solitude]

Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

 Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money.  I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012.  I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever.  I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. 

When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos.

I like using price fluctuations to try to increase my trading bitcoin stash (which is small, but still fun to play with). But you're welcome to do as you see fit.

You'll never accurately predict where the price is going.  Keep trying and keep getting cucked, though.

If you were smart like me you'd remove that stupid picture under your name, that stupid "world class retard" under your name and realize the smartest thing to do is fucking hold your coins and never sell.

[lyth0s]

random rant

Welcome to my ignore list.

[solitude]

random rant

Welcome to my ignore list.

To be on your ignore list is only a pleasure to me, cuck.  Your stupid name, your stupid picture, and your ridiculous slogan under your name "world class retard" only makes me pity you.

[talks_cheep]

random rant

Welcome to my ignore list.

To be on your ignore list is only a pleasure to me, cuck.  Your stupid name, your stupid picture, and your ridiculous slogan under your name "world class retard" only makes me pity you.

Why you so mad, bro???

[bargainbin]

...
Because FUCK the greedy kikes in the IRS.  FUCK paying taxes on your bitcoins.

Wow. Much edge. Careful where you put it.

[stckpkr7000]

There are never guarantees in life, however I HIGHLY suggest everyone buys as much BTC as they can and enjoy the upcoming ride.  I would suggest selling a little off when your position has doubled.  Let the remainder ride for the next 12 months.  A large move is coming and it will shock the "priced in" crowd. 

[LMGTFY]

There are never guarantees in life, however I HIGHLY suggest everyone buys as much BTC as they can and enjoy the upcoming ride.  I would suggest selling a little off when your position has doubled.  Let the remainder ride for the next 12 months.  A large move is coming and it will shock the "priced in" crowd. 

You're assuming - as, to be fair, a number of other posters in this thread appear to be doing - that "the 'priced in' crowd" believe that price can't move up, that the 2016 halving is the only game in town. I believe that a known event, mere months away, is largely priced in. I don't believe that subsequent block reward reductions are fully priced in, and I don't believe that as-yet unknown future changes in usage or innovation are priced in (nor could be).

Thanks for your advice, though. I won't be selling when my position has doubled (much of my position was accumulated through 2010-11, so doubling seems a little irrelevant anyway), and I won't be waiting a mere 12 months before selling: I'm not a to-da-moon bull, but I do intend to hold for the long-term.

[stckpkr7000]

I respect your opinion, however my past experience trading equities tells me otherwise.  I can't tell you how many times known events caused stock appreciation before and after the event.  These were stocks with 50 billion+ market caps with large floats.  Time will be the judge, but I highly suspect the obvious can and will play out.  I love thinking in a contrarian manner, but sometimes the obvious plays out as one would expect.

[JayJuanGee]

Sell in order to buy more when the price dips again.

 Correction, never fucking sell unless you need the fucking money.  I've never sold since I've been been accumulating bitcoin in 2012.  I'll never buy a fucking altcoin ever.  I count my blessings I never sold, bitcoin has only appreciated. 

When bitcoin doubles or even triples in value after the halving, I'll buy this forum off theymos.

I like using price fluctuations to try to increase my trading bitcoin stash (which is small, but still fun to play with). But you're welcome to do as you see fit.

You'll never accurately predict where the price is going.  Keep trying and keep getting cucked, though.

If you were smart like me you'd remove that stupid picture under your name, that stupid "world class retard" under your name and realize the smartest thing to do is fucking hold your coins and never sell.

Actually, when trading bitcoin, there are trading strategies in which a person does not need to attempt to predict short term prices.  Of course, it is good to have an overall long-term vision regarding whether the price is ultimately going up or down. 

In that regard, if you presume that 1)  the prices are going down, then you trade up and down while slowly shedding bitcoins

if you presume 2) prices to be going up, then you trade up and down while slowly accumulating more coins. 

I have made quite a few posts on this topic, with the second presumption, and I have described quite specifically how this accumulation can be done, while engaging in little to no ability to predict short term price directions... except continuing to presume that in the long term BTC prices are going up.

[alani123]

I respect your opinion, however my past experience trading equities tells me otherwise.  I can't tell you how many times known events caused stock appreciation before and after the event.  These were stocks with 50 billion+ market caps with large floats.  Time will be the judge, but I highly suspect the obvious can and will play out.  I love thinking in a contrarian manner, but sometimes the obvious plays out as one would expect.

My thoughts exactly. No matter how much people try to hype an event, it's impact on the price is always unpredictable and the same applies for the halving. Nevertheless, there have been so many positive events that had a negative impact on the price.

[solitude]

This thread needs a bump, why not of God-Emperor Trump's rally I attended tonight?

Goddamn I was close to the God-Emperor, 15 feet at most.

[classicsucks]

Selling coin to yourself can preserve profits, if it's keeping the price up. Paying the fee to the exchange is trivial

Whenever I sell coin to myself to preserve profits I do it OTC, in person. That way there are no fees at all and no counterparty risk.

Just kidding. How does selling coin to yourself "keep the price up"? Isn't that crazy talk?

Well, let's see, I create 2 accounts on any of a number of bitcoin exchanges, I put in a sell order at a high price using one account, and then I buy the exact amount of coin at the high price with the other account (No one sane will buy my coins at the high price, so I can even let the sell order sit for a few days). Now do this 10,000 times per day with bots (exchanges have APIs), and you get a price graph that looks similar to the current exchange rates... Was that hard?

Since I'm doing 10k transactions per day with an exchange, they love me and charge lower fees, or even give me kickbacks. Market sites like coinmarketcap report a huge transaction volume, and everybody assumes that lots of commerce is happening, which perhaps leads to more investment in the space?

[classicsucks]

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

People who invest millions of dollars don't like uncertainty. They analyze an opportunity as thoroughly as they can BEFORE investing (due diligence). Right now Wall Street and Silicon Valley investors have pumped billions into bitcoin. I think it's safe to assume that they:

* know more than most of the beaters posting on this forum
* see an opportunity for financial gain
* want a "first mover advantage" in the space

Wall Street types make millions per year in markets by arbitraging, manipulating, shorting, etc. This is what they do. You can be certain that there are many players in the bitcoin space using every single trick that financial types currently use, plus all of the tricks that are currently ILLEGAL in the mainstream financial system.

[solitude]

"classicsucks", I'm not going to waste my time quoting your gibberish.

I'm just going to tell you to get out of here.

Leave this forum, go back to reddit or whatever shithole you came from.

[dooglus]

I create 2 accounts on any of a number of bitcoin exchanges, I put in a sell order at a high price using one account, and then I buy the exact amount of coin at the high price with the other account (No one sane will buy my coins at the high price, so I can even let the sell order sit for a few days). Now do this 10,000 times per day with bots (exchanges have APIs), and you get a price graph that looks similar to the current exchange rates...

The problem is that there is no way of specifying that you want to buy your own overpriced coins. The exchange will match your buy order with the cheapest sell order on the exchange.

You say "No one sane will buy my coins at the high price", but the truth is that no one (not even you) is *able* to buy your coins at the high price until they have bought all the cheaper coins on the market.

Was that hard?

No, but it didn't work.

[JayJuanGee]

I understand and even believe that a certain amount price manipulation is taking place in the bitcoin space; however, your outline of a mining scheme to manipulate price for its own benefit and worth the cost of doing business seems to attempt to minimize the number of players in the bitcoin scene and the expanding bitcoin market.  Your attempt to simplify and to minimize aspects of the bitcoin community is much more complicated than the more likely reality that there are a variety of players and miners are not significantly selling to themselves in any widespread way.

People who invest millions of dollars don't like uncertainty. They analyze an opportunity as thoroughly as they can BEFORE investing (due diligence). Right now Wall Street and Silicon Valley investors have pumped billions into bitcoin. I think it's safe to assume that they:

* know more than most of the beaters posting on this forum
* see an opportunity for financial gain
* want a "first mover advantage" in the space

Wall Street types make millions per year in markets by arbitraging, manipulating, shorting, etc. This is what they do. You can be certain that there are many players in the bitcoin space using every single trick that financial types currently use, plus all of the tricks that are currently ILLEGAL in the mainstream financial system.

I largely agree with the content of your above post.

In my earlier referenced post, I'm disputing the existence of various bitcoin price manipulation schemes that do not make logical sense, and when some posters describe such price manipulation schemes in narrow ways as if some kind of manipulation practice is prevalent or a major explanation for price movement (such as miners selling to themselves), then that sounds too conspiratorial to me and not a reflection of complex dynamics and a lot of ongoing grassroots effects, as well. 

Yes, I have multiple posts in which i acknowledge some level of bitcoin price manipulation going on, but price manipulation is not the only explanation for a large amount of its recent history (and specifically an explanation of miners selling to themselves is almost completely inadequate and ludicrous sounding, even though there is likely some amount of it going on). 

Currently, there does also exist quite a bit of adoption of bitcoin and networking pressures that are putting upward price pressures on bitcoin.... which are likely to continue to have an exacerbated and explosive effect on bitcoin prices in coming months.

[classicsucks]

You say "No one sane will buy my coins at the high price", but the truth is that no one (not even you) is *able* to buy your coins at the high price until they have bought all the cheaper coins on the market.

On many exchanges you set your buy price. Simply set your buy price a few satoshi over your ask.

[r0ach]

I see Lambchop is back shilling for the tribe.

[r0ach]

The question as to whether the earth ends in deflationary collapse or hyperinflation has been answered

Bernanke coming to pump Bitcoin again:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-11/ben-bernanke-helicopter-money-may-be-best-available-alternative

[r0ach]

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

[Yakamoto]

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

Well obviously it is going to collapse, there is no way Bitcoin can be more valuable than pieces of paper [/s]

I don't know if we are ever going to have a legit page until it is way closer to the halving. I expect it to become a bigger priority at that point, not much point in burning ourselves out now.

[dooglus]

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

This isn't a legit halving thread yet.

I would like to believe that the halving isn't already priced in but am yet to see any convincing argument for it.

I have asked several times to see your argument, but it seems you have nothing.

[mskryxz]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already? 

[chesthing]

Needed an actual legit halving post on front page instead of a bunch of banker shill posts claiming the price is instantly going to collapse to 0 within 5 minutes.

Well obviously it is going to collapse, there is no way Bitcoin can be more valuable than pieces of paper [/s]

I don't know if we are ever going to have a legit page until it is way closer to the halving. I expect it to become a bigger priority at that point, not much point in burning ourselves out now.

Hmmm. A piece of paper can send money across the globe in minutes? who knew? 

[r0ach]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already? 

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.

[talks_cheep]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already? 

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.

It's not that simple. Markets will price in as the anticipated events draw NEAR, in our case 6 months prior to the halving. As currencies go, btc (or xbc) isn't really a currency, has no legitimacy beyond the public ledger, there's no competition with other sovereign currencies, South American or others. Bitcoin inflation is a known quanitity, from your perspective. In other's eyes, bitcoin is deflationary, it just depends on your perspective. It's just stupid to argue that the current bitcoin bears no impact from the traders anticipating the halving. I'm a part-time trader and I've priced in the July halving, so you can't possibly argue that it's not priced in, when I trade, I keep the July halving in mind AT ALL TIMES. If you trade bitcoins and are not considering the July halving, you must be a moron.

[r0ach]

insert garbage spam here

^Click this guy's post history.  Every single post is "blah blah bitcoin will crash to 0 any second" for like a year straight while it goes from $200 to $500 instead.  Not sure how he isn't banned being the most obvious banking shill spam account on the forum.  The banking shill idiots obviously didn't think people can look up their posts to spot them with ease.

[Chef Ramsay]

insert garbage spam here

^Click this guy's post history.  Every single post is "blah blah bitcoin will crash to 0 any second" for like a year straight while it goes from $200 to $500 instead.  Not sure how he isn't banned being the most obvious banking shill spam account on the forum.  The banking shill idiots obviously didn't think people can look up their posts to spot them with ease.

Obvious tentacle of the lambwhore, same tactic every time it posts. Complete shill I might add.

[JayJuanGee]

insert garbage spam here

^Click this guy's post history.  Every single post is "blah blah bitcoin will crash to 0 any second" for like a year straight while it goes from $200 to $500 instead.  Not sure how he isn't banned being the most obvious banking shill spam account on the forum.  The banking shill idiots obviously didn't think people can look up their posts to spot them with ease.

Obvious tentacle of the lambwhore, same tactic every time it posts. Complete shill I might add.

Hahaahhahahahah...

Funny that he joined right in the middle of August 2015... right when Bitcoin began it's famous move out of the 2015 $200s rut... and life for BTC has been pretty good since then.... .. except for these various XT/Classic whiners who also claim that bitcoin does not scale... blah blah blah.. let's change governance...

Yeah, right... 

[dooglus]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already? 

Yes, of course.

If the forthcoming halving was known to be the last ever halving, we would all know that the supply isn't capped at 21 million, but is instead infinite. That would of course affect the price.

Everyone knows that the Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million, and takes that into account when considering the value of a bitcoin. The cap is the result of all future halvings.

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.

Our argument is that all future halvings are already known about, and are therefore already priced in. What is dumb about that?

I am yet to see any argument from you that supports your claim that the next halving isn't (and cannot be) priced in.

[megadeth]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already? 

Yes, of course.

If the forthcoming halving was known to be the last ever halving, we would all know that the supply isn't capped at 21 million, but is instead infinite. That would of course affect the price.

Everyone knows that the Bitcoin supply is capped at 21 million, and takes that into account when considering the value of a bitcoin. The cap is the result of all future halvings.

Thanks for showing how dumb their argument is.  After this halving, inflation is down to 4% or so instead of 8% I believe.  Going to be interesting seeing some of the weaker South American currencies trying to compete with it.

Our argument is that all future halvings are already known about, and are therefore already priced in. What is dumb about that?

I am yet to see any argument from you that supports your claim that the next halving isn't (and cannot be) priced in.

One good reason your argument fails is that there is no guarantee of bitcoin surviving upto each halving.

[r0ach]

If bitcoin halving for 2016 is already priced in, does that mean the halving in 2020, 2024 and onwards are also priced in already?  

Yes, of course.

How did you develop such primitive level of thinking???  I'm not sure what school of economics or trading you're following here, but it's one that obviously did not teach you the words "time opportunity cost", so of course it's not priced in, holy shit.  Claiming not one, but THREE halvings are already priced in is pure insanity.

From the way you talk, you seem to think highly of your intelligence for some unknown reason, so I'm guessing you're one of those rainman guys who can count a box of matches before it hits the ground but can't understand basic concepts like being able to tie your shoes or drive a car without killing 10 people.  Or the fact that for something to be "priced in" would imply a level of homeostasis, which is completely IMPOSSIBLE when either the price has to go up a lot or lots of miners would have to turn off their equipment.  

Miners are not turning off their brand new 16nm equipment.  They've already invested literally hundreds of millions of dollars in them.  They will simply start buying coins off the wall to dollar cost average if price doesn't go up and move it up themselves.  Miners aren't powerless, broke idiots just sitting around waiting for fate to give them some random outcome.

[stckpkr7000]

I'm with you Roach.  Some folks have zero understanding of VERY basic economic principles.  I guess common sense isn't as common as I once believed.  Increasing demand  (no guarantees this will be the case, but history is on our side), with less coins joining the float will absolutely positively increase the price.  There is NOOOOOOO way around it, but some can't seem to grasp the concept of supply/demand.  Bitcoin has been slowly increasing over the past several months.  This means more money is coming into BTC vs the $ amount joining the float on a daily basis.  Yes, some miners and others sit on their coins, but they have their reasons.  Big fish are starting to swim into this space and it will be a game changer.  The coming economic weakness will bring much uncertainty, plus the halving and diminishing fear regarding the fork.  Heck, throw in a possible ETF enabaling Joe Trader to buy and sell BTC.  1,000+ coming to a theatre near you.

[dooglus]

I'm with you Roach.

I understand that you want and expect the price to rise, but do you agree with the roach that it is impossible for a known future event (the halving) to already be priced in?

[dooglus]

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

[Amph]

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

there is a fallacy in this that assume that the dumped coin are equal to the total coins produced, what if they are only dumping 900 coins per day, which is in fact equal to their consumption since the ratio is 4:1 right now between consumption and earning?

this will lead us to the fact that with the halving the dumping will change only by 450 coins per day, which is nothing for the market

[classicsucks]

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

there is a fallacy in this that assume that the dumped coin are equal to the total coins produced, what if they are only dumping 900 coins per day, which is inf act equal to their consumption since the ratio is 4:1 right now between consumption and earning?

this will lead us to the fact that with the halving the dumping will change only by 450 coins per day, which is nothing for the market

The market is the market. If demand remains steady (not saying it does) and supply is cut in half (this IS guaranteed), price should double. Demand is a big unknown - probably the majority of it is NOT for commerce, but rather for SPECULATION. I believe that speculators have asymmetrical knowledge, and vary widely in their understanding of investing, markets, and cryptos. Thus the next 3 months are going to be an interesting time... If the halving is already priced in, in theory there could be no movement, or even a downward movement, at next halving. I regard this as unlikely. Downtrends are usually panic-based.

Let's remember that miners are not required to sell coins mined.  Incentive to sell increases as price increases. If I was mining on a huge scale right now, I'd probably be pocketing all of my coin, while quietly selling off my mining gear for more coin... 

As discussed previously, miners have a collective incentive to keep prices up, so logically they're engaged in price boosting using any and all techniques available. Traders are interested in volatility and had their pump-n-dump fun a few years back. An unknown group is likely interested in shorting, I guess this group would include state actors?

[marcus_of_augustus]

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

... ummm, by doing what exactly? Most people are stupid and lazy and wont act until they have to, usually when it is too late. And what can they do exactly, produce more coins now in anticipation of the halving??

[talks_cheep]

So much ignorance, especially the so called hero and legendary level members, they should be ashamed. It just proves they're mostly bulltards who are waiting to unload their bags on unsuspecting victims noobs. F&ck'em all.

[r0ach]

The market is the market. If demand remains steady (not saying it does) and supply is cut in half (this IS guaranteed), price should double.

If supply is cut in half and demand remains the same, market goes parabolic and you end up with $10,000 xboxs on ebay.  While we are not cutting the supply in half of all Bitcoin's in circulation, the price of Bitcoin is determined by float, which newly mined coins make up a huge part of.  

To emphasize the point, it's estimated by some that up to 30% of Bitcoins might have been lost by users in the early stages of the coin (but not nearly as many people lose coins now).  If you could prove or disprove this fact, it probably wouldn't even have an effect on price because it's just not part of the float of coins on the market.  So, while cutting non-float coins in half can even give you no effect on the market, cutting newly mined coins in half is where the big effect happens.

[nanobrain]

Most people are stupid and lazy

or arrogant enough to believe that.

[r0ach]

Most people are stupid and lazy

or arrogant enough to believe that.

No, this is backed by the laws of thermodynamics, properties such as homeostasis, and the path of least resistance.  An example being, human brains take large amounts of energy.  Humans supposedly only use a fraction of their brains.  Since you didn't evolve to require eating 100 McDonald's burgers per day to power the full extent of your brain, you're kind of inherently lazy by default.  Dolphins supposedly even shut parts of their brains off while still roaming around.  

If you did evolve to use 100% of your brain and bodily systems at all times, and the required, intensive metabolic activity to support it, the wear and tear on organs and buildup of external carcinogens from processing all that would probably kill the host pretty fast before being able to participate in K selection strategy, so you'd require R selection strategy and devolve to a rat.  That is, unless you can genetically engineer humans with the same types of anti-carcinogen attributes as things like sharks, or pseudo-biological immortality like jellyfish, plus a post scarcity ecosystem/economy on top of that...

[marcus_of_augustus]

Most people are stupid and lazy

or arrogant enough to believe that.

... she said, while splayed on the couch, munching on a box of jacks watching daytime soaps.

[Amph]

demand remaining the same and the dumping from miner cut in half does not equal to an increase

remember that demand being the same can also mean that they buy at the same value, no at a better value

less dumping just mean that the value will hold strong at what it is right now, so do not assume an increase in this case either...

[marcus_of_augustus]

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

The halving does not halve the supply. The supply increases with every block. Bitcoins are not consumed. The 3600 or 1800 BTC mined yesterday will be part of the supply today, and the 3600 or 1800 BTC mined today will be part of the supply tomorrow, along with the 3600 or 1800 BTC mined yesterday. Even if you consider 50% of the coins each day as lost or otherwise consumed or unavailable, the supply still increases with every block.

... and so the 'supply' of fiat that represents demand for bitcoin is potentially all the fiat in the world by that logic? (And increasing by the billions of fiat per month at last count)

[BlueSuede]

the halving is a non-event with respect to price, or at most it is an event of trivial proportion. There is nothing to price in or not price in.

The halving halves the supply of new coins from 3600 coins per day to 1800 coins per day.

If we take a simplistic view that there is a steady demand of 3600 coins per day at the current price then it is safe to assume that suddenly halving the supply while not changing the demand will cause an increase in price.

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

The halving does not halve the supply. The supply increases with every block. Bitcoins are not consumed. The 3600 BTC mined yesterday will be part of the supply today, and the 3600 BTC mined today will be part of the supply tomorrow, along with the 3600 BTC mined yesterday. Even if you consider 90% of the coins mined each day as lost or otherwise consumed or unavailable, the supply still increases with every block.

Consider this: when the number of bitcoins mined each day drops to 0, will we suddenly run out of bitcoins? No. At that point, the supply will be constant (ignoring market factors and lost coins). As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Bitcoins are not "consumed" per se but the number of people holding them or using them for trading \ speculation are constantly increasing; so we can assume that the demand mean is increasing over a long period of time.

I still belive that the bitcoin price isn't 100% influenced by demand\offer tho; it's highly speculative. And thus i belive the expectation for the price increase will drive the price up by itself

[r0ach]

And thus i belive the expectation for the price increase will drive the price up by itself

The common spam you always see from the banker shills on here is that "if everyone thinks the price will go up the market will do the opposite!".  WRONG, pumpers are always looking for an excuse to pump the market to some bollinger band busting levels after they buy in early, whether it's Bitcoin, gold, or goats.

[dooglus]

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

... ummm, by doing what exactly? Most people are stupid and lazy and wont act until they have to, usually when it is too late. And what can they do exactly, produce more coins now in anticipation of the halving??

By not selling my coins.

If I was a miner and I believed roach that the forthcoming halving isn't priced in then I would stop selling the coins that I am mining for a couple of months. Why would I sell now for $400 each if I could wait 2 months and sell the same coins for $800 each? Maybe I would have to sell some of them to cover expenses, but I would certainly hold onto the rest.

This, of course, would reduce the supply and so increase the price. This, of course, is what we mean when we say the halving is already "priced in".

So much ignorance, especially the so called hero and legendary level members, they should be ashamed. It just proves they're mostly bulltards who are waiting to unload their bags on unsuspecting victims noobs. F&ck'em all.

I am very open to being convinced that I am wrong. I am waiting for an argument that shows how the halving can't possibly already be priced in. But it seems all people have to offer is name calling. I'm not sure what you mean by "bulltards". I'm bullish on BTC price personally. Are you suggesting that there is something wrong in attempting to "buy low sell high"? Either way, I'm not waiting to "unload" - I hold BTC because historically it has performed better than any other asset class I am aware of. If the price drops it's not a big problem, and if it rises I still won't be in any hurry to sell.

while cutting non-float coins in half can even give you no effect on the market, cutting newly mined coins in half is where the big effect happens.

This is true. BUT we all already know that the newly mined supply will be halving soon. As a miner why wouldn't you already be slowing the rate at which you are selling to take advantage of the post-halving price rise, and in doing so be pricing the halving in right now?

As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Yes, of course. The halving doesn't really halve the supply, it only halves the first derivative of the supply. The supply grows only half as fast as it did before. But I was trying to keep things simple. The subject of this thread says "Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" yet not a single argument has been made here as to why it is not possible. I think the thread is really nothing but an attempt to pump the price, disguised as an argument, which is why when I try to engage people here all I get back is insults. They're on "team pump" and since I'm arguing with them I must be on "team dump". In reality I am on "team logic", but they don't seem to speak logic.

[snoovering]

... In reality I am on "team logic" ...

You came to the wrong neighborhood, mothafukkah

[dooglus]

... In reality I am on "team logic" ...

You came to the wrong neighborhood, mothafukkah

Sure looks that way.

I maintain that he started it with his provocative title.

Maybe consider changing it. Here are some suggestions:

    "Halving guide for noobs:  Why I really really hope the halving is not priced in now"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because I said so"
    "Halving guide for noobs:  The halving is not priced in now. Because billionaires diversify, Soros is bent, and dooglus can't tie his own shoelaces"

[zimmah]

The problem with this is that everyone already knows that the supply is about to halve, and so some people will already have been acting upon that knowledge.

... ummm, by doing what exactly? Most people are stupid and lazy and wont act until they have to, usually when it is too late. And what can they do exactly, produce more coins now in anticipation of the halving??

By not selling my coins.

If I was a miner and I believed roach that the forthcoming halving isn't priced in then I would stop selling the coins that I am mining for a couple of months. Why would I sell now for $400 each if I could wait 2 months and sell the same coins for $800 each? Maybe I would have to sell some of them to cover expenses, but I would certainly hold onto the rest.

This, of course, would reduce the supply and so increase the price. This, of course, is what we mean when we say the halving is already "priced in".

So much ignorance, especially the so called hero and legendary level members, they should be ashamed. It just proves they're mostly bulltards who are waiting to unload their bags on unsuspecting victims noobs. F&ck'em all.

I am very open to being convinced that I am wrong. I am waiting for an argument that shows how the halving can't possibly already be priced in. But it seems all people have to offer is name calling. I'm not sure what you mean by "bulltards". I'm bullish on BTC price personally. Are you suggesting that there is something wrong in attempting to "buy low sell high"? Either way, I'm not waiting to "unload" - I hold BTC because historically it has performed better than any other asset class I am aware of. If the price drops it's not a big problem, and if it rises I still won't be in any hurry to sell.

while cutting non-float coins in half can even give you no effect on the market, cutting newly mined coins in half is where the big effect happens.

This is true. BUT we all already know that the newly mined supply will be halving soon. As a miner why wouldn't you already be slowing the rate at which you are selling to take advantage of the post-halving price rise, and in doing so be pricing the halving in right now?

As long as new bitcoins are being mined, the supply is increasing.

Yes, of course. The halving doesn't really halve the supply, it only halves the first derivative of the supply. The supply grows only half as fast as it did before. But I was trying to keep things simple. The subject of this thread says "Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" yet not a single argument has been made here as to why it is not possible. I think the thread is really nothing but an attempt to pump the price, disguised as an argument, which is why when I try to engage people here all I get back is insults. They're on "team pump" and since I'm arguing with them I must be on "team dump". In reality I am on "team logic", but they don't seem to speak logic.

I think very few people speak logic nowadays, at least in my experience.

I think the halving might have an effect on the price, but probably not immediatly and it might not be as severe as many hope.     

Sure it will reduce supply of new coins, but like you said many miners could already be holding, and miners aren't the only sellers either.   

I don't really care if the price rises fast or slow, all I know is the price is likely to rise eventually.

[piranha]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

[Dafar]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

[Amph]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet.  

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

this is true only to a certain extend, if something is bound to happen it will happen no matter what everyone think

there are some things that you know ahead of time that they will happen at 100%, just by feeling

[BTCLovingDude]

I got a feeling .. And that's all it is, but because most people in general believe the price will go up. That by itself could/will make it a self fulfilling prophecy. Kind of like predictive markets, the more people that believe something will happen a certain way, its tends to be the correct answer. So in my opinion the price isn't baked in yet. 

From my experience, when most people believe something the exact opposite happens. Don't be blinded by the hype, bitcoin is known for its surprises

the price of bitcoin does not change with what people are feeling!

although it is effective because it creates hype and sometimes panic which leads to rise and fall, it is not the main deriving force behind market changes.

[r0ach]

All sig spammers please roast in hell.

[Chef Ramsay]

All sig spammers please roast in hell.

Preach it bro! Let's get some money soon.

[jubalix]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

[JayJuanGee]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

of course you can price it in, and a whole hell-of-a lot of other people can price it in too; however, all of those people still do not make the whole market or the market behavior from those known events there continue to remain a lot of unknowns, including a number of market actors who do not realize the impact and whose actions cannot be predicted ahead of time. 

Therefore, halfing is only partially priced in because market information is imperfect (even with known factors) and humans are not completely rational... and accordingly, the behaviors of some irrational people are going to affect the rational and irrational behaviors of others, creating even more unknowns.

[classicsucks]

the price of bitcoin does not change with what people are feeling!

although it is effective because it creates hype and sometimes panic which leads to rise and fall, it is not the main deriving force behind market changes.

One of your statements must be false - you've contradicted yourself. The preceding statement is true. The followng statement may be false.

I think bitcoin price changes ONLY based on what people are feeling, based on the information they have gathered. Just like the Wall Street markets in this regard.

[r0ach]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

Number one, because as I already mentioned, there is a factor of time opportunity cost.  Nobody knows when the payoff for holding is supposed to begin, so the market has to figure it out in a battle on the orderbooks.  Your post is also kind of a contradiction in itself, seeing as how this is a deflationary currency where numerous coins are lost per year.  On an infinite timeline the price nears infinity, so why isn't the price infinity now?  Because as I said it's IMPOSSIBLE to be priced in due to time opportunity cost.

[r0ach]

Around $443 looks like is the bottom of this move.

[dooglus]

the whole point of btc is you can have certainty about supply, so why cant you price that in?

Number one, because as I already mentioned, there is a factor of time opportunity cost.

I can't find a definition of that term, but I did find this: time value of money. Is that what you're talking about?

I can see that since it would be possible to gain a small return over the next month or two there's no point in bidding the price of BTC all the way up to the post-halving price now. But since interest rates are so low you would still expect the halving to be mostly priced in already.

Nobody knows when the payoff for holding is supposed to begin, so the market has to figure it out in a battle on the orderbooks.

You were claiming that the payoff would happen at the halving and that it is impossible for any gain from the halving to already be priced in. I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in. I am yet to see any kind of logical argument for your position.

[Syke]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

[r0ach]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

[JayJuanGee]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

I agree with almost everything you say, rOach; however, I would hardly characterize $420 as a "LONG TIME" floor.

For almost a year (late 2014 and through a lot of 2015), we did witness $220-ish as a kind of floor that was infrequently breached.

After the price spike from $230-ish to $500 (from August 2015 to November 2015), there was a period of finding the new floor, and I would argue that to had become, largely, floating in the range of $360 to $460, and we are still in that floating.. but slowly floating upwards in that range and likely to break out of that range.  The NOT priced in nature of the halvening is likely only part of the story concerning why we are soon on the precipice of a 5x to 10x bubble, which could actually take a year or so to play out.... and then likely bring us into the range of having a floor in the $2k territory...

Anyhow, I largely agree with you, rOach, and surely none of us have crystal balls that actually work...  .

[marcus_of_augustus]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

This. Is. What. Is.

The halving will be priced in on the day of the halving, not today. But on the day after the halving the material effect of the halving will be begin to be felt, and then that will be 'priced in'. 6 months after the halving the effect of 180,000 coins not coming to market will be then priced in also.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.

Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?

[r0ach]

Nice try, but nobody is going to buy your Eth scamcoin in lieu of BTC.  Your post history is pages upon pages of claiming BTC will crash while Eth will go up.  You're either a paid shill or underwater Ethereum scam victim.

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

Fuck you and your scamcoins.

Read it and weep:

The Ethereum Paradox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Nice try, but nobody is going to buy your Eth scamcoin in lieu of BTC.  Your post history is pages upon pages of claiming BTC will crash while Eth will go up.  You're either a paid shill or underwater Ethereum scam victim.

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

Fuck you and your scamcoins.

Read it and weep:

The Ethereum Paradox:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

Erhm.. you realize that people can actually check my post history and see that you're lying?

[marcus_of_augustus]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

You again. Why are you here?

How many unicorn horns have you got stuck through your pumpkinhead already? ...

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

You again. Why are you here?

How many unicorn horns have you got stuck through your pumpkinhead already? ...

Breaking the illusions of the corrupt is a good sport.

[r0ach]

Merv, do you read the bullshit you type?

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

That looks like it was written by a used car salesmen snorting cocaine while filling out an application to become a politician.  You and your pinky ring can get the fuck out.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Merv, do you read the bullshit you type?

The movement of the ETH market keeps me amazed. Light, fast and with a strong bottom.

That looks like it was written by a used car salesmen snorting cocaine while filling out an application to become a politician.  You and your pinky ring can get the fuck out.

Out of my 29 last posts you find this post, where I expressed my satisfaction in a calm and restrained manner, after multiplying my crypto wealth about +3x (at the time of the post). And you call me a coked up used car salesman in the context of this place, where people get uncontrollably euphoric after a 7% rise in bitcoin value?

[Gillette]

r0ach, your chicken began recovering 

[r0ach]

I've noticed the latest shill tactic is to constantly bump old topics that say stuff like "will the price of $300 hold" haha.

[r0ach]

I've noticed the latest shill tactic is to constantly bump old topics that say stuff like "will the price of $300 hold" haha.

That's not a shill tactic. That's an increase-my-post-count tactic by people getting paid to spam this site with ads.

I looked around trying to quantify areas of concentration of sig ad spammers and there seemed to be tons in the general section and altcoin section, but not many seemed to post in things like Adam's long ass thread.

[classicsucks]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

Pumping market capitalization prior to a subsidy halving is a false economy that only benefits the recipients of the subsidy – think about it. A higher bitcoin price, during the next two months, will neither save any faltering mining operations, nor will it increase mining diversity after the weakest players leave the field. So, what is the rationale behind this mythical halving rally that’s got the market eagerly buying every other day? Pump the price of the current 25 BTC subsidy, and then have price sell-off when the subsidy has halved?

[Karartma1]

It took me almost 20 minutes to read this whole thread and I'm debt with everybody (mostly) who contributed here. I had very confused ideas about the halving while now I feel a bit more informed about what I will have to consider as a btc invested guy and btc tech lover.
More importantly I think I know better about ETH as well.

[r0ach]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

God, these posts are hilarious to read.  This guy is talking like the charts of anything on the planet are interchangable and it doesn't matter if he's trading Bitcoin, corn, or uranium.  All markets have their own unique and somewhat predictable ways.  Anyone that deals with Bitcoin on a regular basis knows where the support hard floors are on this that have no chance of being breached.  He's a vampire and thought he was allowed to drink some blood because he conjured "a trend" that doesn't exist, which he believed would allow him to slide into some impossible number to hit.

He shorted and lost.  Now he's rage posting saying we should all stop buying Bitcoin because it might cause a miner somewhere in Timbuktu to profit.  That part of the argument was even dumber.  We aren't "pumping Bitcoin for miners".  Miners don't have an infinite number of coins to dump like it's a Lehman Brothers fire sale.  75% of Bitcoin has already been mined and inflation is going from 8% to 4% with halving.

These unsuccessful vampires really just need to fuck off and go find a real job besides wealth extraction.  But since they have no idea how to traverse this market at all, I'd prefer they stay so they can just donate money to us with failed trades.  I could go on for hours about this but I just don't feel like typing anymore because these people are fucking pathetic.

[classicsucks]

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

He shorted and lost.  Now he's rage posting saying we should all stop buying Bitcoin because it might cause a miner somewhere in Timbuktu to profit.  That part of the argument was even dumber.  We aren't "pumping Bitcoin for miners".  Miners don't have an infinite number of coins to dump like it's a Lehman Brothers fire sale.  75% of Bitcoin has already been mined and inflation is going from 8% to 4% with halving.

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

Even though miners are increasingly becoming big monied and increasingly capital intensive, they remain a fairly eclectic group in terms of individual mining, pool mining and business mining farms, yet, sure, they share several commonalities in terms of making investments towards both long and short term profits.  There may be some miners who cash out their bitcoins right away and on an ongoing basis in order to keep their business's profitable, short term and long term.  Also, there are some who hold some portion of their bitcoins based on speculation (which may or may not end up being correct). 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

To put too much emphasis on halvening is just screwy logic because some miners are going to be more efficient than others and they are going to incorporate some amount of speculation and diversification of investment in order to attempt to keep their business profitable, and some miners are going to miscalculate and have to either revamp or get out of the game.  Overall there are too many other factors (and some of them unknown or unknowable based on how seg wit and other developments will play out) that will likely cause demands on bitcoins and upward price pressures that will even allow relatively inefficient miners to stay in the bitcoin mining game longer than otherwise may be predicted, and miners are going to continue to reformulate various strategies in the space in order to attempt to increase their profits, whether that be creative pooling or other crypto space diversifications.

[r0ach]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

LOL, no it does not make sense.  The second you get to the sentence where he claims the price of Bitcoin is going to go to $300 for the halving, anyone with a brain can tell it's a complete bullshit post.  Only an idiot would short the halving (MatTheCat - not once, but twice and lost).  It's some jackass trader stuck in a short squeeze posting jibberish because he thinks people will listen to him.

[classicsucks]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

After June the mining industry will receive half the bitcoin protocol subsidy it receives today. The Bitcoin protocol is transforming into a fee subsidized network (as opposed to block reward subsidized). Some miners will have to close shop, the rest will make up the shortfall via increased fees. Many will try their best to survive. Living and conducting business in a fiat-based global economy as we do, when cashflow pinches (during a double-whammy global slowdown and reward halving), does one buy more bitcoin or do you cash out bitcoin for the sake of fiat denominated running costs?

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.

You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins.  I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on.  I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.

[classicsucks]

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

I think that we have had this conversation before and there is no reason to repeat it.

You suggest that miners have an incentive to keep prices high and therefore they are buying their own coins.  I believe that it does not make sense for them to buy their own coins, and you do, so we differ in our opinions, but nonetheless, you keep pushing this theory, incorporating it into your discussion points as a simplified explanation as if it is some kind of meaningful explanation for what's really going on.  I'll repeat that it just doesn't make sense to me, but we do not need to go on about it because you have made your points and I have made mine.

Funny, I don't recall posting in this thread to "have a conversation" with you, sir. I was posting some thoughts on this thread's topic, and you pasted in a tangetial reply of yours from another thread where I mentioned the possibility of miners buying their own coins, and you stated that this "didn't make sense to you". I'm not here to convince you of anything, but generally I advocate for critical thought and fact-gathering rather than simply acting on hunches...


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_lady_doth_protest_too_much,_methinks

Back on topic, I believe that other events are moving the bitcoin price more than the coming halving... This Craig Wright business is interesting, as is the collapse of the Classic attack vector, and the downfall of Gav-boy...

[r0ach]

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...

[katiecbell]

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.

Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?

OK, I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. It's been many years since I mined, and a lot has changed, but I recognize mining-at-a-loss. But like many other experts keep on saying, I too believe halving will come to effect at any time sooner but mainly based on how many new people are coming into bitcoin system.

[dooglus]

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...

I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?

I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.

I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.

[Mobius]

Exactly, and people need to be aware of this.

[r0ach]

Another day, 50 more kwuckduck spam posts on front page.

[r0ach]

I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.

[dooglus]

I hope the price going up so fast isn't scaring you Dooglus.

I refer you to my previous answer, which you may not have noticed (since you didn't reply to it):

How is your bear position on the halving going Dooglus...

I am long Bitcoin, not short. I have no bear position. Did you think I said I did?

I think your statement that "it's not possible for halving to be priced in now" is incorrect, and asked whether you have any arguments to back it up.

I'm sorry if you misinterpreted that as me saying I have a "bear position", but if you go back and re-read what I said maybe you'll understand my position more clearly.

I am happy that the price is going up, of course. But I'm not short sighted enough to believe that it won't go down again too. I've been in this game long enough that the ups and downs don't bother me any more. I'm in it for the long haul.

[r0ach]

I'm just waiting for China to stop trying to block the rise on purpose.  It's clear the west has led in the rise while China has repeatedly attempted to stop it over and over.  Once they give up trying to manipulate downwards, it's going to fly up.  Eventually their tactical market sells and big walls like in the picture below are going to be reversed to try and raise price instead.  These dipshits are really trying hard to stop it from going over $450 or 3000 yuan:

[Cyaren]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

[r0ach]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

The only post I've ever seen from a sig ad poster that wasn't just spam.

[r0ach]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

[classicsucks]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

This is only true if velocity remains static. If velocity drops as coin supply does, it can be inflationary. Velocity could drop due to hoarding. The question becomes "which is greater, the utility of the coins versus the speculative volume?" I don't have a good answer for that yet.

The miners will be trying to make up for their losses - the most logical thing to do is not to sell the coins for a profit, but to hoard them for later sale when the price goes up again. This limits the supply of BTC available, perhaps for a few months until the price adjusts. But there is always going to the same demand for BTC. When demand outweighs supply, the price will naturally go up.

Demand for BTC could and likely will change radically based governmental interventions, possible hard forks, and further predictable scams and security breaches at exchanges. You don't think somebody is trying to devise a way to seize bitcoins right now?

[abercrombie]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

itshappening.gif

[dooglus]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

[dumbfbrankings]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

No time to explain, just get in.

Bubble deniers? U foolish.

~Lucky Strike Halvening Posse~

[r0ach]

Coinbase $458.  RIP to all anti-halvites and halving bubble deniers.  It's coming.

Are you claiming that the recent rise in price is related to the coming halving?

Previously you were saying that it is not possible for the increase due to the halving to happen before the halving, but now you seem to be saying the opposite?

Are you saying that the halving is somewhat priced in now?

You're confusing me.

No, I just said it's coming.

[Ultrafinery]

Basically in a halving situation, the economy is in a deflationary scenario.

In all deflationary scenarios the price of goods fall, in this case bitcoin will gain value, against fiat currencies.
<snip>

1. "In a halving situation, the economy is" NOT "in a deflationary scenario." Decreasing base money supply and "economy [experiencing] a deflationary scenario" are two totally different things.
2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

[r0ach]

2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

4%, whore of babylon

[Ultrafinery]

2. After the halvening, Bitcoin base money supply will continue to grow ("inflate"), just at a slower rate; will only be ~5%, instead of the ~10% we're seeing now.

4%, whore of babylon

MYSTERY, BABYLON THE GREAT, THE MOTHER OF HARLOTS AND ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH!!!
https://youtu.be/eOtl0Zl-YYI
*Only if no difficulty increase, otherwise >4%, insect.

[marcus_of_augustus]

[r0ach]

Ethereum shills getting desperate.  They can't find anyone to dump their artificially pumped bubble on so they're even spamming this section now.

[korila]

Ethereum shills getting desperate.  They can't find anyone to dump their artificially pumped bubble on so they're even spamming this section now.

r0ach would you please be quite
everything is going exact opposite of what you said~

Eth is the new king!

[DeathAngel]

r0ach I really hope you're right with all this, we need a good price rise to attract new investors attention.

[DeathProxyX]

I'm not a programmer and i'm not a miner. But i have a long term exeperience in Currency trading and an Economic degree. So i talk about bitcoin as a currency and not as a simple digital good. Well, i read a lot about Halving prediction, but i would say that if we consider BTC as a currency, an high price (that would consider BTC as a strong currency) should be really bad in a new market because buying good denominate in BTC It will not be cheaper for those who does not already own BTC , with  the risk to block  BTC expansion and closing the market to new investors.

[Denker]

I'm not a programmer and i'm not a miner. But i have a long term exeperience in Currency trading and an Economic degree. So i talk about bitcoin as a currency and not as a simple digital good. Well, i read a lot about Halving prediction, but i would say that if we consider BTC as a currency, an high price (that would consider BTC as a strong currency) should be really bad in a new market because buying good denominate in BTC It will not be cheaper for those who does not already own BTC , with  the risk to block  BTC expansion and closing the market to new investors.

Anf that is exactly your problem.Your thinking completely 1 dimensional and see Bitcoin only as a currency.
But this is soo dumb!!!
Bitcoin is several things at the same time.And everyone participating decides on his own what it is subjectively.
The majority here does not see Bitcoin as a currency.At least not yet!
For the majority it's an investment or an object of pure speculation.And that's why it's value continue being volatile and rise over the long run.
And have you ever thought that in the future we don't have to measure BTC in whole coins?
We can also pay in mBTC or uBTC. So there is more then enough space for gains and no reason to argument that Bitcoin is too expensive to get in. Maybe in 10-15 years we talk about bits!!!!And pay in bits! And everyone who bought whole coins now and have the patience to hold for several years might become wealthy.

Or the exact opposite happens and Bitcoin completely disappears.If that is the case then something better, also open, permissionless, more decentralized, more anonymous, with more potential will have taken over. Awesome!Count me in!

But never will one of these premined, centralized and highly manipulated altcoins or of those closed, permissioned bankcoins takeover.

[r0ach]

Eth is the new king!

Eth is about to implode no matter how many 1 star shill accounts you create:

I'd be much more worried about how much the Eth price is going to implode.  It's a single entity pumping Eth into an even bigger bubble than it already was, who is also going to exit before the Eth DAO can dump on May 28th.  So first the Eth pumper dumps, then the Eth DAO people dump, then the Bitcoin halving happens to dump Eth more.  What do you suppose the Eth price is going to be after 3 mega dumps?

[korila]

Eth is about to implode no matter how many 1 star shill accounts you create:

Date Registered:   August 16, 2012, 11:48:33 PM
This is my account registered date, I was here before you~~,
so don't judge by star numbers :p

Coinbase is adding ETH, everyone is on ETH~
Big BTC whales are fading BTC and moving to ETH~

[DeathProxyX]

I'm not a programmer and i'm not a miner. But i have a long term exeperience in Currency trading and an Economic degree. So i talk about bitcoin as a currency and not as a simple digital good. Well, i read a lot about Halving prediction, but i would say that if we consider BTC as a currency, an high price (that would consider BTC as a strong currency) should be really bad in a new market because buying good denominate in BTC It will not be cheaper for those who does not already own BTC , with  the risk to block  BTC expansion and closing the market to new investors.

Anf that is exactly your problem.Your thinking completely 1 dimensional and see Bitcoin only as a currency.
But this is soo dumb!!!
Bitcoin is several things at the same time.And everyone participating decides on his own what it is subjectively.
The majority here does not see Bitcoin as a currency.At least not yet!
For the majority it's an investment or an object of pure speculation.And that's why it's value continue being volatile and rise over the long run.
And have you ever thought that in the future we don't have to measure BTC in whole coins?
We can also pay in mBTC or uBTC. So there is more then enough space for gains and no reason to argument that Bitcoin is too expensive to get in. Maybe in 10-15 years we talk about bits!!!!And pay in bits! And everyone who bought whole coins now and have the patience to hold for several years might become wealthy.

Or the exact opposite happens and Bitcoin completely disappears.If that is the case then something better, also open, permissionless, more decentralized, more anonymous, with more potential will have taken over. Awesome!Count me in!

But never will one of these premined, centralized and highly manipulated altcoins or of those closed, permissioned bankcoins takeover.

Yes, i saw my opinion only on my knowledge area. I understand that in future we should pay in mBTC or in satoshi too, but if BTC now are  holding by a few people ( how we are? 5/10 millions that hold bitcoin), an high price probably goes to move BTC from a currency to an Investment Good (and if i remember well, an american judges has cosidered BTC as a commodities!)

[Cuntabula]

Ethereum shills getting desperate.  They can't find anyone to dump their artificially pumped bubble on so they're even spamming this section now.

r0ach would you please be quite
everything is going exact opposite of what you said~

Eth is the new king!

Certainly starting to look that way. Probably because bitcoin technology ain't so disruptive anymore, hasn't really added anything new since 2009... Still waiting for a good pump to get out, but starting to lose hope

[r0ach]

hasn't really added anything new since 2009

Proof of stake, like all recursive systems, aren't decentralized - they're permissioned ledgers.  Your fraudulent statement is actually backwards.  No altcoin has improved on BTC at all besides ring signatures and zk-snarks for anonymity, but those may or may not be useful depending on if BTC adds anonymity functions itself via sidechains or other method.

[Cuntabula]

Bitcoin hasn't really added anything new since 2009

Is a scientific fact.
Last gen tech is last gen tech. You hating on new, better crypto disrupting the cozy status quo only makes you look ridiculous (have you invested more than you could afford to lose?).

One more scientifical fact: ETH price up ~1600% this year alone. BTC?

[r0ach]

Next lesson for the shills:

Why proof of stake has no value:

Since Satoshi did not solve the Byzantine generals problem, this means confirmations are completely arbitrary.  So why are two confirmations more useful in Bitcoin (PoW) than one?  Because it's an open entropy system where over a period of time, it's either unlikely or statistically impossible for someone to maintain a monopoly on block validation when there is no upper limit to confirmations.

Recursive systems like proof of stake tend to permanently monopolize block validation by design, with no real fault or state recovery to fix it once it goes off the rails.  This makes a proof of stake confirmation essentially worthless due to being a bounded entropy system.

On top of being worthless, proof of stake is also a permissioned ledger.  The purpose of mining in Bitcoin is to create a permanent decentralized exchange peg, which thus results in a permissionless system.

[abercrombie]

"Stop buying, the halving is already priced in..."  

[zimmah]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

I agree with almost everything you say, rOach; however, I would hardly characterize $420 as a "LONG TIME" floor.

For almost a year (late 2014 and through a lot of 2015), we did witness $220-ish as a kind of floor that was infrequently breached.

After the price spike from $230-ish to $500 (from August 2015 to November 2015), there was a period of finding the new floor, and I would argue that to had become, largely, floating in the range of $360 to $460, and we are still in that floating.. but slowly floating upwards in that range and likely to break out of that range.  The NOT priced in nature of the halvening is likely only part of the story concerning why we are soon on the precipice of a 5x to 10x bubble, which could actually take a year or so to play out.... and then likely bring us into the range of having a floor in the $2k territory...

Anyhow, I largely agree with you, rOach, and surely none of us have crystal balls that actually work...  .

In 2013 we had 2 'bubbles' of a 10x magnitude in the same year, this was also after a halving (although the halving was at 2012-11-28 and the first bubble was at its peak in late april (although the price did rise gradually ever after the halving).

I think it's reasonably likely to see another 10^2x run.

Now that would make for some news headlines in 2017, reaching $40,000

[zimmah]

I'm not a programmer and i'm not a miner. But i have a long term exeperience in Currency trading and an Economic degree. So i talk about bitcoin as a currency and not as a simple digital good. Well, i read a lot about Halving prediction, but i would say that if we consider BTC as a currency, an high price (that would consider BTC as a strong currency) should be really bad in a new market because buying good denominate in BTC It will not be cheaper for those who does not already own BTC , with  the risk to block  BTC expansion and closing the market to new investors.

This only counts if your economy relies on bitcoin.

since we don't have a country were wages are paid in bitcoin, taxes are paid in bitcoin and expenses are paid in bitcoin, this whole argument is moot.

Because even if prices are labeled in bitcoin, as long as the seller doesn't have expenses that are calculated in bitcoin (and not just fiat prices converted to bitcoin), the bitcoin price is not higher than the fiat price.

There are no downsides to having a strong bitcoin.

For example a strong yuan is destructive to Chinese economy, because china relies on exports. If chinese companies need to pay wages in yuan, and taxes, and raw materials, all prices in yuan, and then yuan becomes expensive compared to the euro, then Chinese exports would become relatively expensive compared to eastern-european exports. So then amercan companies would prefer to buy from eastern europe instead.

The chinese economy would collapse because no one wants to buy their expensive products.

With bitcoin this is not the case, since we have no economy that relies on bitcoin exports.

[JayJuanGee]

I am claiming that the halving is already at least partially priced in.

This. It's a sliding scale. As we near halving, the halving becomes more priced in. There won't be an instant price jump the moment the halving occurs.

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.

I agree with almost everything you say, rOach; however, I would hardly characterize $420 as a "LONG TIME" floor.

For almost a year (late 2014 and through a lot of 2015), we did witness $220-ish as a kind of floor that was infrequently breached.

After the price spike from $230-ish to $500 (from August 2015 to November 2015), there was a period of finding the new floor, and I would argue that to had become, largely, floating in the range of $360 to $460, and we are still in that floating.. but slowly floating upwards in that range and likely to break out of that range.  The NOT priced in nature of the halvening is likely only part of the story concerning why we are soon on the precipice of a 5x to 10x bubble, which could actually take a year or so to play out.... and then likely bring us into the range of having a floor in the $2k territory...

Anyhow, I largely agree with you, rOach, and surely none of us have crystal balls that actually work...  .

In 2013 we had 2 'bubbles' of a 10x magnitude in the same year, this was also after a halving (although the halving was at 2012-11-28 and the first bubble was at its peak in late april (although the price did rise gradually ever after the halving).

I think it's reasonably likely to see another 10^2x run.

Now that would make for some news headlines in 2017, reaching $40,000

Fair enough...

You seem to be generally agreeing with the concept that even though history may not repeat itself it may rhym?


2012/2013 gives us a model for what is theoretically possible and likely what continues to be theoretically possible.  For sure, there are no guarantees regarding this near term future outcome,yet we should still prepare ourself for something like a 10x times 2 scenario taking place (whether we conceive the odds as 50/50 or 2/98 or .01/99.99

[AZwarel]

I'm not a programmer and i'm not a miner. But i have a long term exeperience in Currency trading and an Economic degree. So i talk about bitcoin as a currency and not as a simple digital good. Well, i read a lot about Halving prediction, but i would say that if we consider BTC as a currency, an high price (that would consider BTC as a strong currency) should be really bad in a new market because buying good denominate in BTC It will not be cheaper for those who does not already own BTC , with  the risk to block  BTC expansion and closing the market to new investors.

Do not take it personally, but this does not make any sense (pun intended):

First:
If one has no BTC right now, it does not matter have much the goods he wants to buy in the future will cost in BTC; if it goes up in price by 10x folds for example, he will need the same amount of value ($)->BTC-> goods than now, it does not affect him.
Also, we had prices as:
0,001$ BTC, 0,1$ BTC, 1,0$ BTC, 10,0$ BTC, 100,0$, 1000,0$ over the last 6 years, and somehow it still getting more and more investors/users adopting it than ever. Actually, going to 10,000$, or even 100,000$ from today's 500$ isn't that a big jump, like from 0,1$ to 100$ was*

*(network effect annuls the necessity to axiomatically increase the value that each new participant has to put in the network, because the number of potentat users grows exponentially, while the unit/cost does not has to, hence balancing the two off - in other words: doesn't matter if 100 people puts 100$ dollars in it, or 1000 people puts 10$ in it. If the new 1000 people puts the same 100$ in it, the price/unit will grow significantly - not by a linear 10x ofc, but it will grow).

So your theory does fail in the light of real life historical facts. And math. Especially math.

Second:
It does not matter, that you think about BTC as a currency only, by definition it is also - minimum - a payment network, if you can not see the extra added value in that, than you do not understand the basics of Bitcoin, the network. The majority of the market participants - investors, innovators, speculators, researchers, companies, etc - disagree with you, hence you end up on the "minority fork" of "broken grammar economic degree experience".

Third:
In a global/liquid/connected free market, good money (rises in value by time) drives out bad money (decrease in value by time), just like how dollars, pound sterling, Netherland's gineau, Venecian gold coins, etc etc did in the past eras, exactly because they appreciated in purchase value in contrast to every other (less global/local) currency at their time, and yet, somehow people went nutso to hold just a little bit of those in their pockets. Please return that economic degree, before it inflates away any more.

[AZwarel]

Next lesson for the shills:

Why proof of stake has no value:

Since Satoshi did not solve the Byzantine generals problem, this means confirmations are completely arbitrary.  So why are two confirmations more useful in Bitcoin (PoW) than one?  Because it's an open entropy system where over a period of time, it's either unlikely or statistically impossible for someone to maintain a monopoly on block validation when there is no upper limit to confirmations.

Recursive systems like proof of stake tend to permanently monopolize block validation by design, with no real fault or state recovery to fix it once it goes off the rails.  This makes a proof of stake confirmation essentially worthless due to being a bounded entropy system.

On top of being worthless, proof of stake is also a permissioned ledger.  The purpose of mining in Bitcoin is to create a permanent decentralized exchange peg, which thus results in a permissionless system.

r0ach, I admire your patience trying to teach thermodynamics to presumed trolls 

Especially how most - even well intended fellows here - do not get why PoS is an utter failure as a network security model (added, the economic incentive model is counterproductive, resulting in very hackable, centralized like security!).

Just imagine their horror as we would explain them how the early miners effectively would still be able to control ~10-20% of the network security with their laptop made coins hodled in a PoS wallet in the era of huge asics farms Hillarious!